The Europeometer™ (2024/25)

[nufc123]

8 hours ago, Froggy said:

I must say, reading this thread makes me feel like a bit of a hopeful idiot. I absolutely believe we can finish in the top 4/5, and I don't see why Newcastle shouldn't still hope for that as well.

 

Howe and Ten Hag both have a track history of being streaky managers who go on long winning runs. With a lot of players to come back for both teams I do still think there's 5/6 teams in the top four race. 

 

I'll delete this when Forest beat us tomorrow.

I think the Forest game blew all hope out of the window. We have been strong at home the whole season. Its been our "safe zone". Suddenly our away problems turned up at our own ground. 

 

Didnt think i was going to write this a month ago, but if you can win the Spurs game Manu are in a strong position. After the draw at Anfield, and beating Villa you are on the up.

 

 

 

Edited December 29, 2023 by nufc123

[TRon]

While I was glad to see Man U beat Villa just to stop them getting too much distance between us, I am a bit wary of Man U getting a huge lift from the win, especially the manner of it, coming from two behind. Could do with them losing a couple of easy fixtures just to stop any momentum building.

[Coffee_Johnny]

On 29/12/2023 at 02:07, Ronaldo said:

We’ll need 42 points (just about title winning form) in the second half of the season just to equal last season’s points total. 4th isn’t happening now, unfortunately. 

Did we not get 42 points in Howe’s first half-season? I’ll have a look later, but it was something remarkable like that. 

[Coffee_Johnny]

On 29/12/2023 at 02:07, Ronaldo said:

We’ll need 42 points (just about title winning form) in the second half of the season just to equal last season’s points total. 4th isn’t happening now, unfortunately. 

Couldn’t find exact stats, but Jan to Apr 2023 was quite impressive 
over 55% win percentage, 1.96 points per game, and a goal difference of +40. 

 

 

Edited December 30, 2023 by Coffee_Johnny

[Coffee_Johnny]

23 hours ago, nufcnick said:

Might as well change this to the top8, as we’re getting nowhere near the top 6 

After an ‘unusual’ season to date, fixtures and injuries wise, we are two points off the average points return for an eventual 6th place finish. I’m curious why you’re so certain. 
Are you nihilistic Nick? Nasty Nick? Or not really NUFC Nick? 

 

 

Edited December 30, 2023 by Coffee_Johnny

[RS]

Need a massive uptick in form and fitness if we aim to reach top four. I think there’s four teams better than us this season though

[Coffee_Johnny]

On 29/12/2023 at 02:07, Ronaldo said:

We’ll need 42 points (just about title winning form) in the second half of the season just to equal last season’s points total. 4th isn’t happening now, unfortunately. 

Sorry for stats bombing your post, and hogging thread, but found the comparison I was searching for. Last 19 games of the 2021-22 season, Howe and co, managed 38 points with what was mainly Bruce’s team. 12 wins, 2 draws, 5 losses (all away, including 5-0 trouncing by Man City, except a 0-1 reverse at home to Liverpool). 
The same for this half season, would put us on 67 points. Which is close to the average for a 4th place finish (68) and I suspect, the way teams are taking points off one another, would be enough for 4th this season. 
So, in short, no reason to stop believing just yet. 

[Decky]

Gonna be absolute scenes on here if Wolves and Chelsea go above us and we're 11th at some point in January. Before you panic just look at the fixtures after January. 

[Geordie Ahmed]

13 minutes ago, Decky said:

Gonna be absolute scenes on here if Wolves and Chelsea go above us and we're 11th at some point in January. Before you panic just look at the fixtures after January. 

Yeah, I expect us to be 11th/12th at the end of Jan

 

But then as you say the fixtures look way kinder on paper after that, that's where we have a chance to put a ring together and start to jump up the table 

[Kanj]

Come Feb onwards it’s Man United away, Chelsea away, Arsenal away, and the other clubs around us at home ya?

[Decky]

2 minutes ago, Kanji said:

Come Feb onwards it’s Man United away, Chelsea away, Arsenal away, and the other clubs around us at home ya?

 

Yeah Arsenal away is the only one I'd be fearful of, the rest are winnable and with a week between games and a winter break over us we should be able to get a good solid run together.  If we get anything in January then I'm happy because in my mind I've written all 3 games off in our current state. Beating the mackems and getting another cup run going would be class as well.

[nufc123]

3 minutes ago, Decky said:

 

Yeah Arsenal away is the only one I'd be fearful of

Must say im fearful of every away match right now. Less games should help, and players back (if they are back). Still loads of question marks over us. But it cant go much worse (away), thats a positive.

[Gawalls]

35 minutes ago, Decky said:

Gonna be absolute scenes on here if Wolves and Chelsea go above us and we're 11th at some point in January. Before you panic just look at the fixtures after January. 

Not from me - as long as we stay away from relegation spots I’ll genuinely be happy.

[Decky]

15 minutes ago, nufc123 said:

Must say im fearful of every away match right now. Less games should help, and players back (if they are back). Still loads of question marks over us. But it cant go much worse (away), thats a positive.

 

After Sunderland we only have 2 games in four weeks (3 if we beat Sunderland) so our squad should get a good rest and get back to a decent level of match readiness. Its also another month for the injured players to come back hopefully, and maybe we'll make a signing or two. January has the potential to be absolutely rank but better days are ahead this season.

[Stottie]

The clubs around us have started beating each other, so it looks like whoever gets fifth won't need 70 points to do it.

In the last 10 fixtures, we've gained the same points as Tottenham, one fewer than Brighton, and three fewer than Man U. We've had some very poor results, but its not a complete disaster.

 

We need to tighten up defensively and start hitting a barn door instead of missing easy chances early in games. Both are things we've been able to do before under Howe. Fewer fixtures overall should mean fewer injuries and more time to regroup.

 

[Froggy]

On 29/12/2023 at 09:08, Froggy said:

I must say, reading this thread makes me feel like a bit of a hopeful idiot. I absolutely believe we can finish in the top 4/5, and I don't see why Newcastle shouldn't still hope for that as well.

 

Howe and Ten Hag both have a track history of being streaky managers who go on long winning runs. With a lot of players to come back for both teams I do still think there's 5/6 teams in the top four race. 

 

I'll delete this when Forest beat us tomorrow.

 

[madras]

On 29/12/2023 at 09:08, Froggy said:

I must say, reading this thread makes me feel like a bit of a hopeful idiot. I absolutely believe we can finish in the top 4/5, and I don't see why Newcastle shouldn't still hope for that as well.

 

Howe and Ten Hag both have a track history of being streaky managers who go on long winning runs. With a lot of players to come back for both teams I do still think there's 5/6 teams in the top four race. 

 

I'll delete this when Forest beat us tomorrow.

It's still here

 

 

 

Anyhoo........ I'm hopeful and I know we can but think it unlikely.

[Aiston]

We basically need to turn from being one of the worst teams in the league in away games to being the best in away games.

 

Just cannot see that happening quickly.

[Coffee_Johnny]

1 hour ago, Aiston said:

We basically need to turn from being one of the worst teams in the league in away games to being the best in away games.

 

Just cannot see that happening quickly.

It can happen and has, recently, to us. Check out the 2022 bit of 2021-22 season vs the earlier debacle. We surely have a better squad now (or certainly will have with bods coming back). 

[OoOGazOoO]

Had another look last night, we are 11 points behind 4th already, and I imagine that is going to get worse before better.

 

There's chuff all chance we are getting top 4, it'll be 7th or 8th I think 

[alexf]

Our away form all relies on Willock and Barnes returning for me and then not picking up any other serious injuries. 

 

We need more energy and pace for counters. 

[Erikse]

If 5th gets CL, does that mean that 6-7th could get Europa League and that 8th place could get Conference League?

[Coffee_Johnny]

19 minutes ago, OoOGazOoO said:

Had another look last night, we are 11 points behind 4th already, and I imagine that is going to get worse before better.

 

There's chuff all chance we are getting top 4, it'll be 7th or 8th I think 

How many points do you think will be needed to finish 4th? 

[duo]

Top four is already sewn up - Villa's form this season is nailed on top four for me.  Even if 5th place has CL spot this year I think it is a tall ask - we would have to invest at the levels we did in Jan 22 to have any chance which seems unlikely.  I see us finishing 7th.

[ohmelads]

Half a season left to play. Clearly there's a tough month ahead and it will likely get worse before it gets better, but if there's a regression to the mean, we should have fewer injuries in the coming months while some clubs will have more. No one in the country has had injuries or cup fixtures like we've had this season, and those who have come close on the injury front have felt it. We've got some of our best players still working to fitness like Botman and Isak. It's a cliche but Barnes is basically a new signing after only 1 start. Willock and even players like Anderson will come back and give competition for places and rotation. We have far fewer fixtures over the next 5 months. It's a combination of factors that gives us a chance of going on a big run if we can get momentum.

 

Pope is a big loss we can't fix quickly but I firmly believe that whatever happens in January, we'll pick up more points over the next 19 games for all these reasons. The major question is have we left ourselves too much to do? We're 7 points off Spurs. It's very difficult but not insurmountable in half a season. If we can beat them at our place it's a 4 pt gap over the other 18 games.