The Europeometer™ (2023/24) - permutations in O.P.

[Optimistic Nut]

Top 7 and two Quarter Finals with the injuries we've had would be a very good outcome.

[STM]

1 minute ago, Menace said:

Thats a big ask tbf

 

Watkins never seems to get injured for Villa, I'm sure Spurs will sign a striker this summer too.

 

 

 

 

Alternatively, let's get a half decent deputy who has a good fitness record. 

[Coffee_Johnny]

For what it is worth, I think that, after close statistic analysis of the relative wage ratio of ourselves Villa, Spurs, West Ham and Manure (… not really) that we will show relatively great form for the remainder of the season and likely pick-up 22 points from the  available 33. This, 62 points, should be enough for sixth in an average season. However, we would be depending on others having less good form.
That said most don’t need to fall of a cliff form wise. For example if West Ham continue their 1.56 points per game (ppg) until the end of the season, they will finish on 59 points.
The issue that makes me think 7th might the best we can do, is that Manure need to do significantly worse than their current 1.69 ppg; 1.42 ppg would return them a total 61 points. I don’t see them deteriorating that much. So, in order to have a realistic chance of sixth we will probably need 2.2 ppg or better, at least another 24 points from 11 games. Not impossible, we’ve had periods like that before (8 wins from 11), but unlikely. It will be important not to lose to them at Old Trafford, and to win our home games against West Ham and Brighton. 

 

 

Edited March 3 by Coffee_Johnny

[Displayname]

1 hour ago, Coffee_Johnny said:

For what it is worth, I think that, after close statistic analysis of the relative wage ratio of ourselves Villa, Spurs, West Ham and Manure (… not really) that we will show relatively great form for the remainder of the season and likely pick-up 22 points from the  available 33. This, 62 points, should be enough for sixth in an average season. However, we would be depending on others having less good form.
That said most don’t need to fall of a cliff form wise. For example if West Ham continue their 1.56 points per game (ppg) until the end of the season, they will finish on 59 points.
The issue that makes me think 7th might the best we can do, is that Manure need to do significantly worse than their current 1.69 ppg; 1.42 ppg would return them a total 61 points. I don’t see them deteriorating that much. So, in order to have a realistic chance of sixth we will probably need 2.2 ppg or better, at least another 24 points from 11 games. Not impossible, we’ve had periods like that before (8 wins from 11), but unlikely. It will be important not to lose to them at Old Trafford, and to win our home games against West Ham and Brighton. 

 

 

 

Would have looked better if you had done the math after Manu loses to City today

[Geogaddi]

1 hour ago, STM said:

Without our injuries, we'd be finishing 6th at least this year. We are only 4 points off Man United as it stands.

 

We need a good summer. 3 quality signings in the Isak/Bruno/Botman bracket, half the injuries of this year, and the Italian Stallion back and we will be fine for top 6 next year.

 

Joelinton signing a contract needs to be job one on the agenda. Where would we finish in the league if we had the big fella available for the remaining games.

I still maintain Villa and Spurs are no better than us , I know the league table shows otherwise but I believe the three of us are all of a very similar level, we have just been dealt a shit hand in almost every possible way this season. 

[The College Dropout]

21 minutes ago, Geogaddi said:

I still maintain Villa and Spurs are no better than us , I know the league table shows otherwise but I believe the three of us are all of a very similar level, we have just been dealt a shit hand in almost every possible way this season. 

Agreed.  We are close. We’ve had the toughest European campaign, dodgy transfer window, bad luck with injuries and dealt with it all badly. So we’re battling the block beneath us - we have enough to finish above that block though. 
 

I don’t think we’ll be able to catch Man U unfortunately. But if we somehow beat them at OT it’s definitely on.  
 

7th would be good all things considered.  6th would be excellent and positions us greatly for next season if that’s enough for Europa League. 

[astraguy]

Villa only need 3 wins from 10 

[TRon]

4 hours ago, Optimistic Nut said:

Top 7 and two Quarter Finals with the injuries we've had would be a very good outcome.

 

Top 7 would be amazing given the injuries we've had, if Isak stays fit for the rest of the season it is defnitely on. Will be a great launching pad for next season's campaign to still be in Europe with all our missing players back and one or two key additions.

[t00nt00n313]

Considering we seem to be over the worst of our injuries and have gotten the top four out of the way (villa, arsenal, l pool, and city) I could see us going on a good run.

 

I think 6th is certainly possible, but the issue is I think it comes down to us getting a result against man u at old Trafford and I just don't see us beating them a fourth time in a row particularlly on their home turf.

 

That being said does it actually matter? Assuming we get five champions league places next year and Liverpool will be one of those, that means 6th, 7th and maybe even 8th goes to Europa? In that scenario not much difference finishing 6th or 7th.

 

[Keegans Export]

I'm still not 100% sure how the European places are going to work.

 

Assuming;

1. England gets the extra CL place

2. One of the top five wins the FA Cup

 

Would that be;

1st-5th Champions League

6th & 7th Europa League

8th Conference League

[greydos]

I just want to finish above Manure for one season in my life! Let’s just break that duck at least as a consolation

[Astroblack]

What position is Conference going to? Anyone know?  

[timeEd32]

2 hours ago, Keegans Export said:

I'm still not 100% sure how the European places are going to work.

 

Assuming;

1. England gets the extra CL place

2. One of the top five wins the FA Cup

 

Would that be;

1st-5th Champions League

6th & 7th Europa League

8th Conference League

I haven’t seen confirmation anywhere, but this is my best guess.

[brummie]

59 minutes ago, Astroblack said:

What position is Conference going to? Anyone know?  

 

If we win the Conference League, that'd qualify us for the Europa League, but if we finish top four, what happens to that? If it's not going to another English club instead, it's surely a waste of a European place?

 

Or am I missing something?

[Pata]

8 hours ago, STM said:

Without our injuries, we'd be finishing 6th at least this year. We are only 4 points off Man United as it stands.

 

We need a good summer. 3 quality signings in the Isak/Bruno/Botman bracket, half the injuries of this year, and the Italian Stallion back and we will be fine for top 6 next year.

 

Joelinton signing a contract needs to be job one on the agenda. Where would we finish in the league if we had the big fella available for the remaining games.

 

Think we would be fighting with Spurs and Villa for top 4/5 without the injuries. Still think we'll finish above Man Utd so 6th is very much a possibility this season too.

 

 

Edited March 3 by Pata

[astraguy]

after that result going above man u would be fucking mint and them paying 20m

[Dr. TC]

9 minutes ago, Pata said:

 

Think we would be fighting with Spurs and Villa for top 4/5 without the injuries. Still think we'll finish above Man Utd so 6th is very much a possibility this season too.

 

 

 

I agree. And spurs are always capable of a dramatic collapse. So let's keep a head of steam and see what happens. 

[Gawalls]

9 hours ago, STM said:

Without our injuries, we'd be finishing 6th at least this year. We are only 4 points off Man United as it stands.

 

We need a good summer. 3 quality signings in the Isak/Bruno/Botman bracket, half the injuries of this year, and the Italian Stallion back and we will be fine for top 6 next year.

 

Joelinton signing a contract needs to be job one on the agenda. Where would we finish in the league if we had the big fella available for the remaining games.

We’re skint this summer aren’t we? It was Jan just over two years ago when we made the bid spends so isn’t this summer one year two soon?

[STM]

Just now, Gawalls said:

We’re skint this summer aren’t we? It was Jan just over two years ago when we made the bid spends so isn’t this summer one year two soon?

 

I'm sure someone much smarter than me will answer this but all of the talk is of a big summer. 

 

Besides which, its not done in 3 year blocks, its not allowed to have x amount of losses over 3 years, so each year the number is different to the previous.

 

I still can't fully wrap my head around it but I'm certain we will have plenty to work with.

[Gawalls]

1 minute ago, STM said:

 

I'm sure someone much smarter than me will answer this but all of the talk is of a big summer. 

 

Besides which, its not done in 3 year blocks, its not allowed to have x amount of losses over 3 years, so each year the number is different to the previous.

 

I still can't fully wrap my head around it but I'm certain we will have plenty to work with.

It’s a rolling 3 years as much as I understand and we spent fuck all in the windows before that, I believe you’re not allowed over £105m losses (very simplifying it) in that rolling 3 years.

[brummie]

What is crazy is that transfer fees have gone nuts, but that 105m stays fixed.

[Ronson333]

19 minutes ago, brummie said:

What is crazy is that transfer fees have gone nuts, but that 105m stays fixed.

Yep and not even moving with inflation. 

[Deuce]

Barring a complete collapse from Spurs or Villa down the stretch, 5th seems out of reach. I’d put good money on us landing 6th.

[ChrisJbarnes]

How does the European spots get affected by either Man city/ Arsenal winning the CL, Liverpool or Brighton winning the Europa, or Villa winning the conference?

[Beth]

37 minutes ago, ChrisJbarnes said:

How does the European spots get affected by either Man city/ Arsenal winning the CL, Liverpool or Brighton winning the Europa, or Villa winning the conference?

As it stands if England gets the extra CL spot then 6th and 7th will get EL and 8th ECL. If we don't then 5th and 6th get EL and 7th ECL.

 

I don't think however the current top four do in europe will effect this, and Brighton or West Ham winning the EL is highly unlikely.