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The TopFourometer™ (2023/24)


Rich

The TopFourometer™ (2023/24)  

605 members have voted

  1. 1. How likely are we to finish top four this season? 0 = nee chance, 5 = can’t call it, 10 = nailed on marra



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3 hours ago, nufcjb said:

I'd give up getting Europe through the league if we can win the FA Cup. But with Liverpool and Man Utd and even Chelsea still in that, we'll need to get nice draws for ourselves and the others to knock each other out in the QF and Semis. And we'll of course need to win the Alan Shearer derby first as well.

 

Tough but doable. The league is much tougher for imho. Need those teams still in Europe, to stutter a bit and we keep on winning. 

 

God, I sound so obvious trying to stay positive.

Give us Man City or Liverpool at home in the quarters for me, assuming we can get past Blackburn.  I think we need home advantage to beat either of those teams (even then it would be tough), as we just dont turn up at Wembley! 

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3 hours ago, Coffee_Johnny said:

We are 5 points from an end of February total (Bournemouth H and Arsenal A to play) which would put us bang on the average points total for a sixth place finish. So still in there with a chance. 

 

So what you're saying is, beat Bournemouth and we're still amongst it.

 

Lose to Bournemouth and Howe is a fraud with Burn going down in history as one of our worst ever players.

 

Beat Arsenal, and we gain points we didn't expect to get, meaning the Bournemouth result wasn't that bad, with Howe also for some, going ahead of Keegan when it comes to our best ever manager.

 

Lose to Arsenal, and we need to question whether Howe has taken us as far as he can. 

 

Delete where applicable. 

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4 hours ago, timeEd32 said:


I wonder if Villa Talk has done 20 pages on how Emery’s training methods endanger knee ligaments.

Its tactics, not training methods, but the sharp turns that defensive players must do when a simple throughball bypasses your high backline can't be good for them. It sounds like injuries waiting to happen.

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16 minutes ago, 54 said:

Statistically, we have the "Easiest" run in of any Premier League team, with Villa the 4th hardest:

 

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It’s also going to get to a point where a lot of those teams we have left to play have nothing to play for while we still do 

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Looking at the table now it's pretty clear we're going to finish either 7th or 8th. What that would get us in terms of europe is the ECL spot at best.

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7 minutes ago, gbandit said:

It’s also going to get to a point where a lot of those teams we have left to play have nothing to play for while we still do 

That's generally what decides it. Last 4 games of the season you could be against shit teams giving their all or midtable teams nothing to play for.

 

Annoying for us our last game of the season is Toneys last game for Brentford at their place.

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2 minutes ago, TRC said:

That's generally what decides it. Last 4 games of the season you could be against shit teams giving their all or midtable teams nothing to play for.

 

Annoying for us our last game of the season is Toneys last game for Brentford at their place.

I think that's a good thing as they will almost certainly have nothing to play for and Toney won't want to get injured before his big move.

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1 minute ago, Beth said:

I think that's a good thing as they will almost certainly have nothing to play for and Toney won't want to get injured before his big move.

I guess you can put it that way.

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32 minutes ago, TRC said:

That's generally what decides it. Last 4 games of the season you could be against shit teams giving their all or midtable teams nothing to play for.

 

Annoying for us our last game of the season is Toneys last game for Brentford at their place.

I don’t think there are shit teams this season, except for Burnley and Sheffield. 

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1 minute ago, Solitude20 said:

I don’t think there are shit teams this season, except for Burnley and Sheffield. 

Everton, Forest, Palace and Luton are probably going to have to go for it the last 5 games or so.

 

Depending on points deductions I have Palace going down, Forest if they get deducted more than 5 points.

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At the end of the season you want to face the teams right down there.  They are right down there because they’re shit. 
 

Some mid table teams hit the beach and fall off. But most seem to relish the lack of pressure. Players playing for moves. Play for spots at the euros. 
 

I remember we went to Burnley in the last game of the season.  They needed to win to stay up.  Smashed them.  

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Manchester United really are something.

 

Last season they conceded 43 goals with an xGA of 50.29, but they only scored 58 goals with an xG of 71.9. They exceeded their xPTS by over 8, finishing 3rd with 75 points despite having the 6th best GD in the league. 

 

This season they are exceeding their xPTS by 11.76 with a GD of 0 and almost +10 xGA vs. actual goals against. They should probably be down around 9th or 10th.

 

Across more than 1.5 seasons they have conceded 76 goals with an xGA of 93.27, an overperformance of 17 goals. Only Fulham are higher. If they had prime Schmeichel I might accept it.

 

Now with Ratcliffe and the emergence of young players like Hojlund, Garnacho, and Mainoo it feels like brighter days are probably ahead with lady luck carrying them through what could have been a far worse period. So frustrating.

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On 12/02/2024 at 17:22, The College Dropout said:

That Villa collapse might actually happen.

 

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With the wind in our sails me thinks 5th is still a possibility 

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