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  • 2 weeks later...

Hummels now out til January and Schmelzer out for 3 weeks. Add to that Subotic out for the season and Piszczek not yet match fit I can only see one result in the game against Bayern on Saturday.

 

Expect the defence to be:

 

Grosskreutz-Gunter-Sokratis-Durm.

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This summer's speculation about Pep Guardiola's probable Bayern Munich system took a simple format, one that fell in line with the standard approach for season previews: They assessed the Bayern side from the previous campaign and then considered where the new signings would fit.

 

It was simple: Thiago Alcantara would probably play at the base of midfield and orchestrate play from deep, while it was widely assumed that Mario Gotze could play as the false nine, effectively in the role where Guardiola had played Lionel Messi on the way to transforming him into one of the world's greatest players. Along with the existing options from 2012-13 -- Bastian Schweinsteiger and Javi Martinez in midfield, Franck Ribery and Arjen Robben on the flanks plus Thomas Muller playing just off Mario Mandzukic -- Bayern had become an even more fearsome attacking weapon.

 

However, this analysis ignored one man: Toni Kroos. Indeed, Kroos was the forgotten man last season after an injury in the Champions League quarterfinal victory over Juventus ruled him out of the remainder of the campaign, denying him the opportunity to shine when Europe was purring about Bayern. Kroos was neither part of Bayern's victorious Champions League-winning XI nor was he an exciting new signing. But he might still be Guardiola's key player.

 

Perversely, Kroos' absence from last year's run-in might have actually helped Bayern. His major quality is his positional intelligence from the number 10 role he played last season; he can drop into midfield to help overload the centre of the pitch, but he can also position himself higher up, closer to the main striker, ready to give support.

 

This is an extremely simple concept, but it's rarer in practice than you might expect. A decent method of measuring this duality is assessing two separate statistics: a player's pass completion rate and his "key passes" figure. It's uncommon to see players excelling in both respects. Either they retain possession but rarely play penetrative passes, like Mikel Arteta, or they're very creative but concede possession readily because of their ambition, like Antonio Cassano, who is Serie A's third-most prolific creator of chances yet gives the ball away with one-third of his passes.

 

Kroos can do both, which was why his intelligence was so invaluable during the 2011-12 Champions League semifinal against Real Madrid. Kroos sat deep and helped control the midfield, giving Bayern the upper hand. His opposite number, Mesut Ozil, concentrated on working in the final third only and was therefore outshone by his compatriot. Kroos' ability to assure Bayern dominated matches would, theoretically, have been a crucial factor against Barcelona last season.

 

Without Kroos, Bayern played in a different style. Rather than attempting to outpass Barcelona, they played a more direct, purposeful and powerful game. Instead of Kroos' passing quality, they leaned on Muller's energy, strength and ruthlessness in the penalty area, and Barcelona simply couldn't cope. Bayern still would have won with Kroos but probably not 7-0 on aggregate. He's just a more patient, methodical and careful player, one who would have slowed the tempo rather than quickened the pulse.

 

Regardless, Kroos remains a wonderful footballer capable of being the difference in the most important matches. Ahead of this weekend's trip to face Borussia Dortmund, Jurgen Klopp would do well to remember the situation in last season's corresponding Bundesliga fixture, when Kroos was utterly dominant.

 

In that match, Klopp switched from his usual 4-2-3-1 formation and instead played a 4-3-3. The change is minimal on paper but was crucial on the pitch. It meant that Dortmund played with two deep central midfielders and attempted to pack the centre of the pitch, pressuring Bayern in middle. Sven Bender was the deepest in a trio, rather than part of a duo, and he still charged into the midfield, closing down whenever possible.

 

Kroos played this situation brilliantly. He sunk into midfield to help Bayern keep possession but then skipped in advance of Bender to link up with Mandzukic. Dortmund couldn't deal with Kroos' freedom between the lines, and he repeatedly had opportunities to shoot from the edge of the box. His goal, the opener in the 1-1 draw, was a perfect example. He was in oceans of space during the buildup and then managed to evade both Dortmund centre-backs, drawn desperately out of position to attempt a block, before firing past Roman Weidenfeller.

 

These days, Kroos is playing a different role under Guardiola. The Spaniard's 4-3-3 formation means that Kroos is no longer playing as a number 10, which is a disappointment considering his brilliant play in that role. Instead he's tucked deeper, broadly playing the role that Guardiola carved for Andres Iniesta at Barcelona. There, he has proved extremely effective. In the 3-1 win away at Manchester City -- on paper, probably Bayern's toughest test under Guardiola so far -- Bayern's number 39 was wonderful.

 

It was textbook Kroos. He completed 74 of 76 passes to help Bayern control the game, but he also won five tackles, including three high up inside the opposition half, pressing to win possession quickly and effectively.

 

It feels like Kroos' skill set suits a diminutive, slender frame, but at 6 feet tall, his power lends another dimension. For the third goal, Kroos dispossessed an opponent before playing the key pass, allowing Robben in to score. He's the all-round midfielder, never simply performing one role.

 

In his new position, however, Kroos isn't playing incisive passes as frequently -- which, for long periods under Guardiola, was actually the obvious criticism of Iniesta. He has created just 10 chances and recorded a single assist in the Bundesliga this season whereas with Germany he's assisted in five of the side's last nine goals, an impressive statistic considering their wealth of playmaking options.

 

Guardiola has a defined idea of what he wants from his players, and while he has adapted his methods since moving to Bavaria, it would be fantastic to see Kroos allowed more creative freedom. Guardiola's emphasis upon ball retention is obvious, but honestly, Pep, Kroos is one of the few players in Europe who can simultaneously be incisive and reliable with the ball. Above all others, he should be Bayern's key player.

 

http://espnfc.com/blog/_/name/tacticsandanalysis/id/2236?cc=5901

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Kroos is an excellent players, quite fantastic what a team they've built over the years.

 

Schweinsteiger, Lahm, Kroos, Thiago, Martinez can all play in that midfield 2 or 3 depending on how they play. At first getting rid of Luiz Gustavo looked like a decision that might hurt them since he could cover the fullback and DM position, but Guardiola put Lahm there and he dare I say does it even better. No one expected him to adapt this well from right-back to his new role.

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Been one of, if not, the best in the world for years at full back now proving he genuinely is one of the best players in the world full stop. Seems the ultimate pro too albeit I don't follow him/Bayern/Bundes as closely as others.

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Been one of, if not, the best in the world for years at full back now proving he genuinely is one of the best players in the world full stop.

 

I think he's been even better under Guardiola, just like Dani Alves was just excellent under Guardiola. I'm not saying he hasn't been excellent before, and like you said I'd probably have him as a top 3 fullback for each of the last four years, but he's just doing it even better now. Will be interesting to see if Pep sticks with him in midfield or moves him back to full-back whenever they get fit again.

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During his tenure as England manager, Glenn Hoddle was so thrilled by his ability to trick the press and opponents over the availability of “injured” players, and his knack of spreading false trails, that he took to print to boast about his powers of deception.

 

How smug he must have felt — at least until the next match when he sought to explain that Tony Adams was doubtful for a crucial qualifier against Sweden. The late Brian Woolnough, a journalist with a knack of asking the question a manager least wanted to answer, instantly interjected: “Is Adams really struggling, or are you just making that up?”

 

Secrecy over a football team’s line-up seemed a daftly overblown, unnecessary exercise then, but such furtiveness still has a strong hold on managerial minds, judging from the latest news about Pep Guardiola.

 

Guardiola is in charge of the most potent football team in the world, who, on Saturday, thrashed their main domestic rivals, Borussia Dortmund, 3-0 away from home. It should have been a cause for joy, but, in the dressing room after the final whistle, the Bayern Munich coach is reported by Bild, the German paper, to have turned on his players and told them that he knew there was a treacherous mole present among them.

 

“No matter who it is, heads will roll. The one will be thrown out. He will not play any more games under me,” Guardiola is quoted as saying.

 

His warning was reiterated by Karl-Heinz Rummenigge, the Bayern president, who said: “I can only advise the person in question to stop doing it right now, otherwise he’ll have a major problem not only with Guardiola, but also the whole club.”

 

The mole’s crime was to blab the top-secret information that Bayern would start on Saturday with a direct, long-ball game to unsettle Dortmund, using Javier Martínez as a “false 10” to disrupt their opponents high up the pitch.

 

These “secrets” appeared in Bild on Saturday morning, hours before kick-off. That Dortmund were unable to do anything to counter these tactics did not mollify a furious Guardiola who seems determined to play the George Smiley role and hunt the perpetrator, even though his side motor on.

 

We might well ask whether it really does make a significant difference if a side is forewarned about the opposition. Information can be useful, but many coaches act with a secrecy that strays into paranoia. Guardiola recently built a new high wall at Bayern’s training base, believing that spies were standing on a hill to snoop over his work.

 

Anyone who has been to a Premier League training ground recently will know that it is easier to gain entry to Fort Knox. Most are guarded like American embassies, with high walls, security cameras and access so limited that visitors will barely glimpse a pitch. Team line-ups are guarded with particular ferocity.

 

One of the last bans Sir Alex Ferguson placed on a journalist was for revealing the entirely accurate news that Rio Ferdinand had suffered a groin injury and would miss a match at Everton. Ferguson argued that United had lost a competitive advantage because the opposition had more than an hour to prepare. Or had he lost it because he had no central defenders?

 

At Chelsea, where one player was nicknamed “The Welshman” because he was rumoured to be responsible for all the leeks (leaks, geddit?), they launched an internal inquiry not long ago because information from team meetings, and specifically regarding line-ups, was almost instantly being made public via a newspaper website and Twitter.

 

In an age of marginal gains when there is an expectation that coaches will seek every little advantage, perhaps we should not be surprised by their desire to keep the opposition guessing as long as possible.

 

Most managers prefer to lie than give away their plans, while some will even keep their own players in the dark a couple of hours before the game rather than risk word leaking from the camp.

 

Yet, oddly, rugby is not hung up on the same secrecy; an IRB regulation states that international teams must be named 48 hours in advance. Coaches in rugby increasingly fly close to that limit and there is a feeling within the sport that the timing may be pushed back in line with football so that a club might be able to catch an opponent on the hop with a surprise selection occasionally.

 

That shift will come under the heading of “professionalism” and, after all, Hoddle was insistent that subterfuge and misinformation could make a difference, throwing an opponent off guard.

 

Perhaps. But in Munich, they suspect this is less about the information that is leaked than Guardiola’s imposition of discipline. Most managers are control freaks and Guardiola’s anger was, perhaps, not about Dortmund knowing his tactics but rather caused by a player, and perhaps more than one, gossiping out of turn.

 

He wants everyone in the dressing room to know who is boss but, even so, he surely has better things to do than hunt a mole, or erect high walls around a training pitch, given that Bayern are in unstoppable form.

 

There is not a lot that any opponent can do to counter the reigning European champions just now — even should Guardiola fax over his team, his tactics and his intended substitutions too.

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Seems that Guardiola is trying to emphasise the fact that he's not resting on any laurels. Who knows, if he hadn't have been so clear about how severe an issue this is, perhaps next time leaked tactics would have cost them some points. He seems intent on not only maintaining immaculately high standards, but making sure everyone knows that he is.

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Guest neesy111

Injuries are really catching up with Dortmund this year, hope they have enough to see off Napoli on Wednesday. They struggled to put a back four out against Munich.

 

They did.  Still they were the better team 1st half and I think would had won if they had taken them in the 1st half.

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Hoffenheim - Bremen was a great match today.

 

Ended 4-4 with 3 penalties.

 

Hoffnenheim were 2-0 up after 44 minutes. It was 2-2 at HT. 4-3 till 90th minute - then the equaliser. Memories of our's vs. Arsenal (not quite, but a little bit)

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  • 2 weeks later...

Going into the winter break now so no games until the end of January. Bayern have the title already wrapped up it seems, was expected really.

 

Dortmund have been extremely disappointing in the last month or so, they really miss the Hummels + Subotic partnership at the back. Will definitely have to spend some cash in January to shore up the defence.

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  • 2 weeks later...
  • 3 weeks later...

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/25647442

 

Are brilliant Bayern Munich making the Bundesliga boring?

 

The German top-flight's winter break should have been about rest and recuperation for Bundesliga players and coaches.

 

But one question will have been driving them to distraction; how can we compete with Bayern Munich?

 

After a five-week absence, the Bundesliga returns on Friday when the leaders - and defending champions - travel to Borussia Monchengladbach.

 

Pep Guardiola's men are seven points ahead of nearest rivals Bayer Leverkusen, with last season's runners-up Borussia Dortmund 12 points adrift in fourth, as the second half of the campaign kicks off.

 

And, in a further demonstration of their power, the Champions League and Club World Cup holders announced earlier this month that Dortmund's prized asset Robert Lewandowski will join them in the summer.

 

"Bayern aren't from this world at the moment," Leverkusen sporting director and former Germany forward Rudi Voller told BBC Sport.

 

"The danger is very real that it will be boring at the top."

 

In 2013, Bayern broke records, won five trophies and hired one of the world's best coaches when Guardiola replaced the retiring Jupp Heynckes.

 

So let's put their domination in the context of English football. Since Bayern last lost in the Bundesliga, Chelsea have had three managers. English Premier League clubs have spent more £600m in transfer fees. A total of 14 players have made their international debuts for England.

 

That last Bundesliga defeat was way back in October 2012, when Sidney Sam's late header gave Leverkusen a 2-1 victory at the Allianz Arena.

 

The unbeaten run stretches to 41 matches.

 

"Bayern are playing a similar role to the one Barcelona played in Spain - they're virtually unbeatable and outplay most opponents," says Voller, who scored 47 goals in 90 games for Germany between 1982 and 1994.

 

"Borussia Dortmund have managed to battle back a little bit over the last few years, but not this year.

 

"This season, we have been close in terms of points, but Bayern's quality is not just in their starting 11 but also in the 11 after that. It is so high."

 

Voller was one of the greatest strikers in the history of German football and coached the national team when they reached the 2002 World Cup final.

 

This season, he watched from the stands as head coach Sami Hyypia guided Leverkusen to a 1-1 home draw  against Bayern.

 

Since then, Leverkusen have overtaken Dortmund as Bayern's closest rivals at the top, but Voller admits the battles in other areas of the table are becoming more exciting than the title race.

 

"What's important is that there are other groups that are interesting," he adds. "Those playing for the Champions League spots, the Europa League places or the relegation candidates for example. That keeps the league exciting."

 

In the last 10 years, four teams have managed to beat Bayern to the Bundesliga title: Werder Bremen (2003-4), Stuttgart (2006-7), Wolfsburg (2008-9) and Dortmund (2010-11 and 2011-12).

 

Last season, though, second-placed Dortmund finished 25 points behind Bayern - and all four of those teams are now wondering how they are ever going to catch the reigning champions again.

 

"To be honest that's the most difficult question within the Bundesliga at the moment," says Stuttgart sporting director Jochen Schneider. "Bayern are far, far away from every other team, so it's quite difficult.

 

"One team dominating in that way is something we can't like, but remember it happened also in the 70s and the 80s when Bayern Munich dominated for a certain period.

 

"It's going to be very tough to win the title again but when we look back to 2006, the year before we last won the league, it was nearly the same situation - so in football, everything can happen.

 

"We have to work hard every day. We have won the title five times in the history of the club and I'm quite sure we will win it again."

 

On the pitch, the Stuttgart players are also feeling the strain of trying to compete with Bayern.

 

They narrowly lost the German Cup final 3-2 to the treble winners in May and will play them for the first time this season on 29 January.

 

"I think for the moment, there's no chance against Bayern Munich," Stuttgart and Guinea winger Ibrahima Traore told BBC Sport.

 

"They are too good, they have too much quality, they have too many players who can make a difference in every game. I think in the league no team can beat them. That's how I feel.

 

"I don't think their dominance is good for the Bundesliga but what can we do against them? They're strong, they're powerful and they can play. Every team is starting to aim for second place, not for the title."

 

The other problem for Bayern's rivals is that the Bavarian side have the power and the money to sign all of the best young talents in Germany after they have been developed at other clubs.

 

The prime example is Mario Gotze, who started training with Borussia Dortmund at just eight years of age.

 

After moving from the academy to the first team he helped Dortmund win two Bundesliga titles and reach a Champions League final.

 

But last April, Bayern came calling with a £31.5m bid and Gotze controversially moved from the Westfalenstadion to the Allianz Arena last summer.

 

Then, to add insult to injury for Dortmund fans, Poland striker Lewandowski signed a pre-contract agreement to join Bayern in the summer.

 

Stuttgart also have one of the most successful youth academies in the country, producing Germany internationals Sami Khedira and Mario Gomez among others, but their sporting director agrees that it is difficult to begrudge Bayern for their success or their spending power.

 

"Sometimes it's a bit frustrating but on the other hand they've done a very good job for 40 years, it's the best club in Germany," Schneider says.

 

"And it's not that they won the money in the lottery or that a Russian guy came to give them lots of money - it's the result of their work. It's something you have to accept.

 

"It's our job to close that gap and we're working on that."

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