timeEd32

With some of the limited angles available it seems impossible to decide what's on / off at the margins we're looking for.

Leicester

Feels like a bad habit from playing in a bad team. Leicester seems very slow to any loose ball.

It's quite obviously not bollocks. Of course we have a list of targets - whether Champions League would just change the quantity of players we bring in or alter who is on it we can't be sure of. But more important than the budget is the category of player who just won't consider a club that isn't in the CL (sounds like Szoboszlai may be in that category for one). And, as Edwards says (can't believe I'm referencing that prick again), every decision is connected so while Maddison may be on our list either way it could determine whether he's 1st or 3rd choice.

This is, IMO, the biggest issue with VAR. Any time VAR is used there should be a verbal explanation given by the referee or I guess VAR official (though not exactly sure how that would work).

He's not wrong with the last sentence. These links are entirely pointless until we know if we're in the CL.

They are in a tough spot. I hope they sell Kane abroad so they have a transition season and he doesn't break Shearer's record.

It's for next season. He smartly wants nothing to do with the current mess.

If they don't beat Wolves at home I'm going to start to seriously think they will finish 5th.

This is the main reason the various models like our chances so much. We're just a really good football team. Based on underlying stats we're closer to Arsenal than Man United.

Well that's not a great mindset.

Anyone else slightly paranoid that him signing a new contract is dependent on us finishing in the top 4?

Who is this max fella? Twitter seems to be taking this pretty seriously.

I really want Lavia. Hope we’re in for him.

I've come to accept that it's always going to be a bit of a tightrope when he comes out for the ball. But I think Odegaard's goal is the first time I've been really disappointed in him as a shot stopper. I know there were bodies in front and he must have seen it late, but he has to do better there.

I think everyone is anxious to some degree. I've been as confident as anyone in this thread, but I also won't play the CL theme until it's done. Feels like bad karma. I would also be worried if we had to go to Stamford Bridge on the last day needing something (despite the fact they are terrible). The main things that bothered me in this thread were the panic about Villa and now the extreme panic about Liverpool that seems to ignore the fact that 1) their results are only consequential if we fuck up to a degree we have not seen this season 2) Man United are in a worse position than we are, which is why we have a roughly 2 in 3 chance of finishing 3rd. Oh, and that some of the ridiculous discussion about odds and projections has made me feel like Nate Silver superfan #1.

Our odds of finishing 3rd are double that of Man Utd. Our odds of finishing top 4 are almost the same as the odds of City winning the title, which everyone assumes is a done deal.

Carvajal should be booked there.

Honestly I think the ASM decision is likely slightly out of our hands and will come down to what the interest is in him. What offers do we get and what would that allow us to do. There's no doubt in my mind he's in the category of player where we'd sell at the right price

Shit, I glanced at Wikipedia the other day and thought they had gotten promoted to the Championship. The club really didn't try before, huh?

I just like the name, ok

Ha, the first two have happened and I was avoiding corporate names. Makes it sound less magical.

We have all summer to talk ourselves into the Europa League if needed. For now there's no reason to not be dreaming about trips to the Bernabeu, Stade Velodrome, and the real Stadium of Light.

You're countering mathematical odds (which aren't perfect of course) with emotional arguments. There's no end to this debate. This is the most wrong thing you've said though. I'm going to vomit if I read one more time about how in form Liverpool are. I'd be much more on the side of how questionable the odds are if we had been playing like them. They could have easily dropped up to 6 points in the last few weeks. Maybe they ride this good fortune all the way to the end. BUT IT DOESN'T MATTER if we beat a Leeds side that has won two games since February (shipping 32 goals in the process) and a Leicester side who have one 1 out of their last 15 games having just conceded five to "on the beach" Fulham.

If you take a mix of 538 and the betting sites the consensus is we're roughly 90% likely to finish in the top 4. Those that think 90% is too high seem far too focused on Liverpool. Their results only matter if we can't win two of our remaining games. If we played these fixtures 100 times how many times do you think we'd fail to earn 6 or 7 points? And then in those times we do fail to do it we have the safety net or Liverpool dropping points and/or Man United dropping points. Honestly, it seems about right and that's why you can make a decent amount of money if you bet against us right now. It doesn't mean it can't happen. Even at these odds there are 10 out of 100 scenarios where we fail to do it. This seems apt right now: The odds seem more ridiculous when you tell stories of the mighty Liverpool, a Newcastle United who always fail to get it done, and Manchester United being a foregone conclusion because of who they are. And Brighton losing shouldn't change anything because little Brighton was never going to get it done anyway.