Stottie

There was another howler from Tarkowski at the weekend, so I hope that interest is now dead and buried. You'd think it would be after Big Dan Burn's majestic start, but just in case.

Pogba and on a much lower level Lingard walk away this summer. Rashford is currently scheduled to walk in summer 2023, after Pogba has already shown how its done. Man U are lucky in that Rashford's a local and would face death threats if he went to City on a free like Tevez. The fact that this is even remotely possible shows how ineptly Man U are run.

That all makes sense and may well be what happened. However, its not the simple narrative the press grabbed hold of and ran with. As we know ourselves, a slide into relegation is stressful and its easy to start blaming any players you think could do more. In our case, a player we thought could do more went onto become an integral part of Liverpool's midfield.

The "they spent a fortune" excuse is ready-made for all the pundits who were jizzing and declaring game over with the "no team with no wins in the first 14 has ever stayed up" stat. Which is probably only Prem era and ignores the fact that a single win in game 15 took us level with 18th and only three points behind 17th. "Spent a fortune" also gets their good mate Steve Cabbage Bruce off the hook, of course.

Brighton only managed six shots in the second half, which they started 0-2 down. That's 6 shots, three on target and three blocked, from 70% possession for 45 minutes in a game they were losing. Even Jamie Vardy, about as good as you get, needs more than six shots on average to score two. Their delivery from corners was excellent, I'll give them that.

I feared the ones on the pitch were a distraction for the players. I remembered that time the Mackems conceded to a shot that deflected off a balloon. The ref should have disallowed it, but didn't know the rules.

The displays are magnficent. Just a little gripe, but was that a couple of sheets from the displays on the pitch during the match? If so, they should be removed at a break in play. Our last 8 at home, which I think is back to the Norwich game with the sending off. Newcastle Utd P8 W4 D3 L1 F10 A9 GD+1 Pts 15. That's sixth best in the league, over what is getting on for half (42%) of the season at home.

Almost as big a redemption as Joelinton. Which is about as big a turnaround as you get. The stuff about him not playing (for Howe) in the Bournemouth relegation season just adds another level of intrigue.

Another lead turned into a win, pretty much without any risk of an equalizer. No saves by Dubs, shots off the post, folk tripping up when clear through etc. Up to the dizzy heights of 1.6 points a game where we take the lead. Still comfortably bottom three, but now above Burnley and Leeds. I didn't notice before the game, but Brighton have won 7 out of 8 when taking the lead, so it was important to get that first goal. https://www.transfermarkt.com/premier-league/punktenachfuehrung/wettbewerb/GB1/saison_id/2021/spiele/alle/plus/1

No goals conceded in open play for six matches.

Got bossed second half, but some good last-ditch defending kept them out. I wouldn't say Brighton got close enough to say we were lucky or they were unlucky. For a team who does pass and move so well, it's funny to see Brighton excel at orcball corners. They're really good at them. In open play, Welbeck seemed to offer no threat at all. A great three points. Onwards and upwards.

Everton currently in the bottom three.

We were clinical in the first twenty and have looked dangerous since. They've worked the ball well, even within the box, but our last man defending has been good. Their best chances were the two set pieces in the first ten minutes. Shelvey a little off the pace, so give it 10-15 and maybe take him off for Bruno. Give ASM 10-15 too.

Immense! 2-0

Meh politics. I couldn't find it and had to work it out myself, but over our last ten games, which still include the Citeh, Liverpool, and Leicester defeats before all the good results, we've averaged 48% possession. Thanks to the Cabbage, we're still averaging about 40% for the season as a whole. This is the only possession stat commonly available, but tells you nothing about how we play now. With 48% possession, I would say we have already completed the transition to an "Eddie Howe team". In those 10 games, we've also had more attempts on and off target than our opponents.

I'm still waiting for Johnny to play Longstaff as a false nine. Release his inner Fabregas!

We always seem to concede at home. They've let in two a game for three in a row and have worse form even going back twelve games. So I predict a 2-1 win.

For your viewing pleasure, here's his results this season. I've included the goals for and after in the final 30 minutes, an indicator of fitness, in-game management, use of subs etc. and points lost when winning at some point in the game. Incidentally, the two goals scored in the final 30 were an ASM special vs. Soton and that crazy Eric Dier own goal. That's in 390 minutes plus stoppages against potentially tired opposition. His overall record over 90 minutes is 4 points from 13 games. His teams have protected a lead zero times out of five.

We also had 3 bits of terrible refereeing in Man City, Arsenal and Liverpool games. Should have had 3 penalties IIRC. The Leicester defeat hurt a lot because it immediately destroyed the momentum from finally getting the first win against Burnley. However, it too started with a terrible decision, the pen for that blatant dive by Madison. A couple of individual errors second half gave them a 4-0 that flattered them. The other big "panic stations" moment under Howe was the Watford equalizer. In hindsight, it was a well-taken goal and well played by them, just one of those things, but at the time it felt like yet more points dropped and symbolic of us being incapable of winning. I don't think anyone could have foreseen the complete turn around we've had since, so credit to Howe and everyone, because it felt very dark at the final whistle. That was Jan 16, so just six weeks ago. Our record after that game was P20 W1 D9 L10 F20 A43 Pts 12

Those sounds tasty odds to me. Realistically, it means finishing about Brighton, Villa, and Southampton, assuming Leicester wake up/win games in hand. Or two of those plus Leicester. Our average of (seasonal form) and (last eight games) is 1.44 points per game, which would take us up to 44. That should be good enough for 11th or 12th. We've also got 19pts off our last 12 games, which if extended would get us to 46 points. Callum Wilson said the other day he'll be back for a "good chunk of games". Add goals to what our midfield and defence are doing and we'll win games.

The one I'd like to see is points lost from winning positions. Many of ours were with Bruce, even his last game against Spurs, and WBA lost from ahead last week. Given that you hear the expression "win from behind" so much in football, it's funny how weird its opposite "lose from ahead" sounds.

We've not conceded in the second half for five games in a row. The Villa pinball offside goal aside, it hasn't even looked like happening. In our first 20 games of 21/22, we conceded 22 in the final 30 minutes alone, blowing out of our arse every week. That's why we lost all those points from winning positions.

Villa were W5 D2 L4, 17 points from 11 games, before we beat them. Most pundits saw that game as an away win and were hyping Stevie G. Leeds were coming off straight wins against West Ham and Burnley, scoring three in each. Their form since we beat them? P6 W0 D1 L5. We have had a run of easy fixtures, but its been with relegation pressure. As everyone said on January 1st, the fixtures meant any players bought in the window would have to slot in immediately for would be our best remaining chances to accumulate points. Howe and the club deserve massive credit for the way this has happened so smoothly. It was not a given! Now the relegation pressure has waned, it'll be good to see us play Southampton, a proper form team, to see how far we have come. My thoughts are definitely turning to next season.

Yeah, at least 30 minutes. The game is won. Just keep Wood on, because it'll be a nightmare if Gayle came on and scored.

Fantastic so far. Workmanlike, professional, methodical, whatever your favourite word is. We have an advantage and we pressed it. Some great center forward play too, albeit from Joelinton and Fabien Schar....err cough cough. We're staying up!