Stottie

Understat says we have zero goals from 5 xG when leading by a single goal. 50 odd shots. The failure to convert them is why we've lost so many points.

It's still Ashley-NUFC level to be concerned about this, but Dyche is not publically pressing for a new striker to replace Wood. There have been murmurs about Benteke, but it sounds like he's not keen. https://www.burnleyexpress.net/sport/football/burnley-fc/burnley-transfer-rumours-clarets-make-contact-for-ps10m-midfielder-crystal-palace-willing-to-sell-turf-moor-target-3532924 Without a new striker, it'll be hard for them to win matches. The stats say Cornet is just on a hot streak converting barely half chances, which cannot be relied on. Our best hope of staying up is getting new players, of course, but we also need the bar to finish above three clubs to be very low.

Great result for us, I thought. Watford have some decent players, but are not getting the most out of them. This defeat brings extra pressure, puts Ranieri's position in doubt, and keeps Dennis out of the next game. Norwich still look hopeless and pretty much fluked three goals off two shots on target. They won't get this much luck every week. xG was Watford 1.3 Norwich 0.9

We need to mash the panic-spend button to stay up, and sacrificing one more game to maximize the transfer pressure could be ultimately beneficial. Our best hope of going on a good run would be with much better players than we have now. Watford had a stinking run going into our game, which they were five minutes off losing. Its a hard call, but perhaps a result against Norwich that gets Ranieri off the hook for a few weeks longer may ultimately hurt them. I don't know if its Ranieri or not, but their form has been worse than ours. Of course, the replacement could be just as bad or worse.

All hearsay and speculation, but one reason given for Lingard not joining West Ham was that he wanted to play for Man U and thought OGS would give him a chance. That didn't happen, but their manager situation is now up in the air and they have players on very big contracts who could well be gone by next season. If Lingard impressses with us on loan, one option he might have is a free agent-sized bonus from Man U to go back there to play under their new boss. If he accepted a permanent deal now, he would lose that option.

Just for those commenting on our 2M bid, it appears to have flushed out the 3.5M price, which itself sounds acceptable. As a caution, Lingard at West Ham outperformed xG to a greater extent than Willock did last season. However, if you watch the his highlights on YT, the non-tap ins are pretty much all powerful strikes that keepers failed to keep out or were in the corner anyway. He can run with the ball and definitely put his foot through it, which sound enough for goals against the fourteen or fifteen teams who will soon have increasingly little to play for. The romantic in me says its probably Lingard's last chance at a WC next year, and he needs a move to get playing time and exposure. Whether that matters to him that is another matter altogether.

If Wood is playing up top, it might actually be worth putting Ritchie in right midfield/wing just to swing the ball in. It was where he used to play most of the time. His shooting is decent too. I think he'd achieve more than Fraser or Almiron, and do what he's told, which Murphy doesn't seem to do.

I think we have to play him. He'd look better with a full back in the same postcode and other options around him but its rarely the case. He offers a geniune threat and teams are terrified of him. The obvious complaint is that he should not be dribbling near the halfway line. We saw what that does against West Ham, and it was our biggest scare in the first half on Saturday.

Our set pieces have clearly been better the past two games and Joelinton (I know) should have scored in at least one of them. The header Schar missed against Cambridge was also easier than the one Watford scored.

Imagine him coming in and upsetting the Trippier and Howe love-in. Or ASM who nearly won us the match, but only after committing our biggest lapse of the first half, losing it on the halfway line. I think the team is going in the right direction, but there is just so much ground to make up. After two months of Howe, I don't think our problem is lack of organization or effort. It is poor, error-prone footballers and an ingrained losing mentality, a lingering smell from when defeats had positives and being in the bottom three was "ticking over". If Rafa suffered from a lack of fit strikers at Everton, well guess what he'd walk into here.

Another great contribution. He cannot finish though, can he? I think he should be relisted as a midfielder to jack up the pressure to get another striker in.

First game, so he doesn't deserve to be judged on this given what we created for him. Even if time is running out and we need wins NOW.

8 and "no", but only because of the depth of our owners pockets. No-one as wealthy as them has ever been in this position before. The kind of recruitment never seen before could save us. With the current squad, it is 10, and would be 10 even if Wood settles in and starts producing. The frightening one is the extent to which we went to pieces after scoring.

Shite result, but completely deserved after going to pieces following ASM's goal. That looked like Bruceball to be honest, heavy legged, passing it directly to them, dropping deeper and deeper. Even then, we would probably have got away with it if not for weak as piss defending from the only decent cross they hit all match. Wood was anonymous. Very disappointing. I know they have limited players at their disposal, but couldn't Howe and co done something to stem the tide? We were under pressure for at least twenty minutes before they scored. I had been hopeful going into this, but the relegationometer goes up to eight. If the transfer window closes with no additions, we're definitely down.

70 gone. Can't see us surviving another 20 minutes of this. Need to get a grip.

Probably Giggs, but great feet for a big man.

I quite like Dwight Gayle and think he should have been tried more. He's limited as a Prem striker of course, but the key stat is how many minutes did Bruce play Joelinton at CF and what did it produce? I think Gayle would have contributed more had he been given the chance. We would probably have seen more from Joelinton earlier too had he been tried in a deeper position. It felt like Bruce was playing Joelinton at CF simply to appease Ashley for big punt on him.

I don't know Ekitike, but we are currently playing with a quarterback and they all need receivers. It's a waste to have Shelvey in the team and no one to ping it over the top too. Liverpool do it plenty to Salah and long balls/fast transitions to Vardy helped Leicester win the league.

Origi to Burnley for 7M?! Staveley's actually playing 4D chess and Burnley will take our 20 odd million and buy Ross Stewart from the Mackems, weakening two teams for the price of one.

I think this is too negative. What we have is a joke of a squad with no forwards. Well, a great but brittle one, an unfavoured (or anyone's guess) one, and one who's playing as a box-to-box midfielder. We need two, possibly three forwards, Wood is one of them, and he'll feature in our first league game in January. So mission #1 accomplished. I hope we get a big name forward, on loan would do, but it's much more likely when the pressure of the window closing starts to bite. Our position relative to sellers will dramatically strengthen then.

Just on the issue of whether Wood's been poor this season, his xG (5) is similar to Gabriel Jesus off the same appearances and a similar minutes played. Jesus has scored 2, Wood 3. Calvert Lewin, a 40M?? striker, has three goals off 4.11 xG. Wilson has three more goals off just over 5xG, but from less time on the pitch. Wilson has scored from a single chance a few times this season, e.g. Spurs home. I have many doubts about xG, but its a rough guide as to whether players are getting into goalscoring positions. Over the long term, top strikers will score more than xG, maybe 20% above, decent ones the same, and poor ones less. With the squad we have, no fit striker means losing our best wide player and door opener, or losing recently our best box-to-box midfielder, just to have someone inferior playing up top. If Wood plays against Watford and Leeds, expect those other two to contribute much more effectively. I know losing to Cambridge was embarrassing, but Joelinton had two free attempts from corners. Score one of them, as you'd expect a striker to, and we are not in the headlines.

For Wood himself, I think he's better than Barnes, who was heavily linked with Chelsea a few years ago. Wood's goal stats will compare with Peter Crouch, who played for Liverpool and Tottenham, much more freescoring teams than Burnley.

Just on Burnley, Cornet hardly scored in France, but has 6 goals from 1.5 xG of shots this season. That's better than even Willock last season (8 from 4.85). It sounds like Papiss Cisse during his first 10 games. It won't continue. If we have been struggling to get a striker in with bigger wages, a bigger budget, and a search which started last month, I'd expect Burnley to struggle to get one in for the money we're giving them here with their wages, their proximity to London, their playstyle (for young players), their "project". Wood will be an upgrade on Gayle and that's all that matters for the time being. We need another striker and a better one would be good, but have three weeks to find one.

If Brighton and Brentford are involved, it at least sounds like he's for sale! Brentford are big on data processing, so they must have found some good metrics for him. I had a look at the squad on .com the other day when Gayle did not appear for the Cambridge game, and our forwards are listed as Wilson : injured (and injury prone) Gayle : unfavoured/injured/feck knows ...... and Joelinton: starting in midfield That's it, three players. There is ASM of course, but he is wasted there. We need him as a door opener. I thought there'd be a youngster or two waiting in the background but no. If there is, he didn't make the list. Since we need more than one striker, I'm perfectly happy for anyone who'd normally be a #2 or #3 to come in now. We can worry about a new #1 striker later in the window. At this point, we just need bodies for the big games we have to play.

Get Wood in now for Gayle and go for the WIlson replacement later. As the window closes, new options, like a Martial/PEA loan, not available now may become possible.