Alan Pardew

[Happy Face]

Football's simply not a stats game as much as some other sports are. That's not to say that they don't have their place but there's too many variables. A simple stat saying the team had a shot at goal tells me nothing - did the shooter have any better options or were they all holding their positions? How many other people were in the box trying to create space for him?

 

Using a measure of shots at goal to represent chances created, for example, is a blatant misrepresentation of how the game works.

 

That would suggest you view the number of shots we've somehow contrived to spawn as an anomaly.  It could be.  It's higher than in the previous 2 seasons.

 

It can all be contextualised. 

 

Someone raised the damning stat that only 4% of our shots came within the 6 yard box.

 

Someone else that we've average 69 long balls per game.

 

It's written into folklore that we've gone a year and a half without scoring from a corner.

 

Seems to me people find a view and then are happy to hear facts that support their view...but will dismiss facts that challenge it.  It's probably best to look for the reasons behind the facts rather than instantly dismiss them as anomalies....which they could well be.

[Beren]

Football's simply not a stats game as much as some other sports are. That's not to say that they don't have their place but there's too many variables. A simple stat saying the team had a shot at goal tells me nothing - did the shooter have any better options or were they all holding their positions? How many other people were in the box trying to create space for him?

 

Using a measure of shots at goal to represent chances created, for example, is a blatant misrepresentation of how the game works.

 

That would suggest you view the number of shots we've somehow contrived to spawn as an anomaly.  It could be.  It's higher than in the previous 2 seasons.

 

It can all be contextualised. 

 

Someone raised the damning stat that only 4% of our shots came within the 6 yard box.

 

Someone else that we've average 69 long balls per game.

 

It's written into folklore that we've gone a year and a half without scoring from a corner.

 

Seems to me people find a view and then are happy to hear facts that support their view...but will dismiss facts that challenge it.  It's probably best to look for the reasons behind the facts rather than instantly dismiss them as anomalies....which they could well be.

 

You're ignoring the starting point though, aren't you? People don't "find a view" walking down the street. They come before statistics enter the equation. Their view is based on what they see before their eyes on a regular basis.

 

As such, it's only natural for people to believe certain statistics are distortive of the truth and unfaithfully represent what they've seen, and to accept those that correlate with what they've seen. It's just a sign of a curious brain that they would want to explain how/why a statistic can be factually accurate but not correlate with a wider truth.

 

Our terrible record on corners for example. People only took the time to look at when we last scored a corner because they formed an opinion, having watched us match after match, that they were shite. The starting point wasn't to randomly trawl for damning statistics and stumble across Demba Ba's goal vs Wolves as being the last time we scored from a corner.

 

We do play horrible, negative football. We don't create nearly enough chances.

[loki679]

Football's simply not a stats game as much as some other sports are. That's not to say that they don't have their place but there's too many variables. A simple stat saying the team had a shot at goal tells me nothing - did the shooter have any better options or were they all holding their positions? How many other people were in the box trying to create space for him?

 

Using a measure of shots at goal to represent chances created, for example, is a blatant misrepresentation of how the game works.

 

That would suggest you view the number of shots we've somehow contrived to spawn as an anomaly.  It could be.  It's higher than in the previous 2 seasons.

 

It can all be contextualised. 

 

Someone raised the damning stat that only 4% of our shots came within the 6 yard box.

 

Someone else that we've average 69 long balls per game.

 

It's written into folklore that we've gone a year and a half without scoring from a corner.

 

Seems to me people find a view and then are happy to hear facts that support their view...but will dismiss facts that challenge it.  It's probably best to look for the reasons behind the facts rather than instantly dismiss them as anomalies....which they could well be.

 

If we shot from the halfway line every time we had the ball we'd clock up loads of shots.  It wouldn't be effective and I wouldn't want to watch it. 

[Happy Face]

You're ignoring the starting point though, aren't you? People don't "find a view" walking down the street. They come before statistics enter the equation. Their view is based on what they see before their eyes on a regular basis.

 

As such, it's only natural for people to believe certain statistics are distortive of the truth and unfaithfully represent what they've seen, and to accept those that correlate with what they've seen. It's just a sign of a curious brain that they would want to explain how/why a statistic can be factually accurate but not correlate with a wider truth.

 

Our terrible record on corners for example. People only took the time to look at when we last scored a corner because they formed an opinion, having watched us match after match, that they we were shite. The starting point wasn't to randomly trawl for damning statistics and stumble across Demba Ba's goal vs Wolves as being the last time we scored from a corner.

 

We do play horrible, negative football. We don't create nearly enough chances.

 

The person who first looked up that corner fact formed the view, looked at the stats, was proved correct and so it has been a widely circulated since.

 

That's textbook.

 

People watch games, perceive that we don't create chances...and say so on here.  Without the fact checking part.  If we had least shots on target, shots off target, shots in the box, shots outside of the box or something to confirm that, then it would be a useful statement.  But other teams create EVEN less chances than us, before you  even consider what proportion were "good" chances.

 

What the facts do say is that we don't convert the chances we get as well as anyone else (bar QPR) this season.  That we had one of the best conversion rates in the league last season.  That it reduced early this season...and reduced further still when Ba left.

[Dr Venkman]

As I missed the last few pages i'll just say the best thing about stats is how angry they make people whose agenda is compromised by them.

 

I dont use stats to defend Pardew. I use them as evidence where the criticism is factually false.

 

You will not find me suggesting for one second that the football is has been good. I was criticising his footbsll when we came 5th.  But people like to go over board, where Pardew is to blame for one thing he is to blame for all things...even imaginary criticisms with no basis in fact.

 

Pages of this thread can be defined as

 

 

#

"OMG we don't create any chances"

 

"In comparison to the rest of the league we actually create a good deal of chances but our conversion rate is poor"

 

"OMG you're a wum the football is shit"

 

Return to #

 

Creating chances and the football being shit aren't mutually exclusive.

 

I wasn't here much when Money ball was a hot topic. But if you think stats are irrelevant in the multi billion pound world of sport you are ignorant.

 

So stats are good because they allow you to refute criticism which is 'factually false'? But the BEST thing about them is that they make people angry?

 

Righto.

 

No-one's said they're irrelevant, and I'd bet nigh on everyone here would admit to making flippant statements. You're not really saying much.

[Mattoon]

And here we go again with the stats and numbers game, again! The truth of the matter is we are playing shit football under Pardew, we are utterly embarrassing, we are flaccid in attack and inept in defence and there's nothing in between. For all I care we could have an average of 50 "chances" a game, but the truth is we hardly ever look like scoring and certainly don't create much danger in an around their box. Fuck your stats, I've got eyes and 20/20 vision.

[Skirge]

Scott Wilson ‏@Scottwilsonecho 5m

Ashley has instructed Pardew to compile dossier on what went wrong this season, but there appears to be strong reluctance to change manager.

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[Beren]

You're ignoring the starting point though, aren't you? People don't "find a view" walking down the street. They come before statistics enter the equation. Their view is based on what they see before their eyes on a regular basis.

 

As such, it's only natural for people to believe certain statistics are distortive of the truth and unfaithfully represent what they've seen, and to accept those that correlate with what they've seen. It's just a sign of a curious brain that they would want to explain how/why a statistic can be factually accurate but not correlate with a wider truth.

 

Our terrible record on corners for example. People only took the time to look at when we last scored a corner because they formed an opinion, having watched us match after match, that they we were shite. The starting point wasn't to randomly trawl for damning statistics and stumble across Demba Ba's goal vs Wolves as being the last time we scored from a corner.

 

We do play horrible, negative football. We don't create nearly enough chances.

 

The person who first looked up that corner fact formed the view, looked at the stats, was proved correct and so it has been a widely circulated since.

 

That's textbook.

 

People watch games, perceive that we don't create chances...and say so on here.  Without the fact checking part.  If we had least shots on target, shots off target, shots in the box, shots outside of the box or something to confirm that, then it would be a useful statement.  But other teams create EVEN less chances than us, before you  even consider what proportion were "good" chances.

 

What the facts do say is that we don't convert the chances we get as well as anyone else (bar QPR) this season.  That we had one of the best conversion rates in the league last season.  That it reduced early this season...and reduced further still when Ba left.

 

I'm not sure I understand what your point is, tbh.

 

That because other teams create even fewer chances that we create enough? That doesn't wash with me.

 

The bold bit is completely meaningless. Krul could take ten shots and Lambert could take one shot. I'd take the one Lambert shot every day. The number of chances a side creates without further contextual evidence is close to useless.

[Dave]

'OMG you're ignoring the stats'

[Happy Face]

If we shot from the halfway line every time we had the ball we'd clock up loads of shots.  It wouldn't be effective and I wouldn't want to watch it.

 

If?

 

Another imaginary counter argument.  Let's keep it real

 

http://i41.tinypic.com/2ptvziu.jpg

 

So outside of the top 7 only West Ham, Swansea and Southampton have had more efforts within the box.

 

An no, I'm not arguing that West Ham play pretty, attacking, cohesive, intricate football.  Any more than I am us.

[STM]

You shouldn't read everything from stats but they can be useful.

 

I'd be looking at our basic stats, like our wins away from home or goals conceded, those can't be twisted.

 

I agree with Wullie though. You can tell how a team has been playing without using stats.

[Beren]

If we shot from the halfway line every time we had the ball we'd clock up loads of shots.  It wouldn't be effective and I wouldn't want to watch it.

 

If?

 

Another imaginary counter argument.  Let's keep it real

 

http://i41.tinypic.com/2ptvziu.jpg

 

So outside of the top 7 only West Ham, Swansea and Southampton have had more efforts within the box.

 

An no, I'm not arguing that West Ham play pretty, attacking, cohesive, intricate football.  Any more than I am us.

 

How can sides take shots that don't result in integers, like?

 

Again, could be from the corner of the box. Trust your eyes, padawan - not that stats

[loki679]

You missed my point entirely.  Never mind.

[Happy Face]

You can tell how a team has been playing without using stats.

 

The very best way.

[Cronky]

I think one thing that stats do show and which is backed up by intuition is that we play a lot of long balls. We don't have the confidence or the ability to play the ball through the midfield often enough.

 

For me, the balance in the midfield isn't right. We seem to field too many defensive CMs, and our more skilful players like Cabaye and Ben Arfa tend to prefer to collect the ball deep and feed other players in rather than get forward on to the end of passes themselves. Sissoko seems to be the best bet from the point of view of an attacking midfielder, but I'm not sure if he's best played further forward nearer the striker. That needs addressing.

[Happy Face]

How can sides take shots that don't result in integers, like?

 

 

Couldn't find the numbers.  Based it on Total shots * % shots inside the box.

 

Edit:  And most Ameobi shot's only count as half a shot.

[Decky]

Scott Wilson ‏@Scottwilsonecho 5m

Ashley has instructed Pardew to compile dossier on what went wrong this season, but there appears to be strong reluctance to change manager.

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No EL next season for him to hide behind. Although, if we play well we might qualify for the Europa League for the following season, what do we do then?

[loki679]

I think one thing that stats do show and which is backed up by intuition is that we play a lot of long balls. We don't have the confidence or the ability to play the ball through the midfield often enough.

 

For me, the balance in the midfield isn't right. We seem to field too many defensive CMs, and our more skilful players like Cabaye and Ben Arfa tend to prefer to collect the ball deep and feed other players in rather than get forward on to the end of passes themselves. Sissoko seems to be the best bet from the point of view of an attacking midfielder, but I'm not sure if he's best played further forward nearer the striker. That needs addressing.

 

I think Sissoko needs to play deeper, drop him right in the middle more advanced than Tiote but deeper than Cabaye.  Let him play the proper box to box role and Cabaye can sit behind our front 3 and create.

[Davey_C_73]

How can sides take shots that don't result in integers, like?

 

Very good point.......maybe they count sliced shots that go out for a throw-in as 0.1?

[Guest bimpy474]

This shite still going on

 

Stats my arse, my eyes watching games virtually every day for the last 35 years, that's where i get my stats from. And we are shite most of the time.  What the feck is wrong with people, don't you actually take any notice of what you see.

[Dave]

Scott Wilson ‏@Scottwilsonecho 5m

Ashley has instructed Pardew to compile dossier on what went wrong this season, but there appears to be strong reluctance to change manager.

Expand  Reply  Retweet  Favorite  More

 

No EL next season for him to hide behind. Although, if we play well we might qualify for the Europa League for the following season, what do we do then?

 

The same thing we do every season Decky, try to take over the world avoid relegation.

[Guest Dontooner]

Ashley's runs a Sport Chain , he is at least in the know of sporting and marketing.........

Still hoping he would show foresight and do the right think.

 

 

[Wilson]

Scott Wilson ‏@Scottwilsonecho 5m

Ashley has instructed Pardew to compile dossier on what went wrong this season, but there appears to be strong reluctance to change manager.

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"We was fatigued and didn't fret enough, need more jumpers in the box." Spread out over 50 pages in 72 bold.

[Guest bimpy474]

Well that dossier will have more bullshit per sentence than this thread.

[Happy Face]

This shite still going on

 

Stats my arse, my eyes watching games virtually every day for the last 35 years, that's where i get my stats from. And we are shite most of the time.  What the feck is wrong with people, don't you actually take any notice of what you see.

 

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