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Wtf is expected goals? Can honestly say I've never seen that stat before. I'd love to know how they work out Palace 1.06 - 0.49 Huddersfield.

Think it's that they look at all the shots from both teams and work out the average chances of scoring from that position and then add them all together. I like it tbh

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Wtf is expected goals? Can honestly say I've never seen that stat before. I'd love to know how they work out Palace 1.06 - 0.49 Huddersfield.

 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/football/2017/07/25/expected-goals-xg-does-show-man-city-should-win-premier-league/

What are “expected goals” (xG)?

 

To work out a team's “expected goals” (xG) for a match, every shot must be analysed and given an "Expected goal value" (EGV).

 

EGV is the probability that any given shot will end up as a goal.

 

As Patrick Lucey, director of data science at STATS, explains, EGV is based on a number of factors, such as where the shot was taken from, the proximity of defenders, the nature of the attack (i.e a direct free-kick or a penalty). The EGV of a shot assumes it is being taken by someone of average ability in the league, so it expects for instance that a shot from 10 yards out plum in front of goal with no defenders nearby has a high chance of ending up as a goal.

 

From an analysis of every shot's EGV in a match, an "expected goals" (xG) figure can be placed on each team from that match. If a team has a higher xG figure than actual goals scored, it will broadly be because of wasteful finishing or good goalkeeping, or both. Likewise if a team is scoring more than its xG then it could be down to moments of individual brilliance from an attacker or say a goalkeeping error.

 

What an absolute pile of wank. :mackems:

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Generally, the defending from set plays has been atrocious this week. Hopefully we can capitalise on that if it continues.

I noticed last season every week we had new corner routines. Practiced and well drilled. Think this could be where we capitalise this season.

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