Relegationometer

[Dave]

http://i.imgur.com/PVF4w.png

[Mick]

 

 

Obviously we can go down, that's not crazy. But to say we're 4 times more likely to go down than stay up is ludicrous.

 

We're heading in one direction, our current form is actually the worst of any team in the league, bar none.

[wormy]

Voted 5 last time.  Now gone for an 8. 

 

Please note that that's as things stand, with Debuchy in for Ba.

 

I just can't see our form improving dramatically given our injury luck this season and lack of signings.

 

Two more quality players in, none out, and we'll be fine.

 

This following analysis isn't specifically aimed at you, mate. Just the last post I've seen referring to it. But I'm really intrigued at how many people are going on about how we desperately need signings as if that's going to solve our problems. Don't get me wrong, we obviously do need signings. But how people think that's going to save us when Pardew's still making the same tactical choices is beyond me.

[Mowen]

FYI we're currently 8/1 on Betfair to go down. That's an implied 11.1% chance of us going down. I'm not saying that's the correct probability, but if anyone genuinely thinks we've an 80% chance of dropping, and doesn't have qualms with betting against their team, then they should really pump some money in because that's an incredible value bet.

[AyeDubbleYoo]

 

 

Obviously we can go down, that's not crazy. But to say we're 4 times more likely to go down than stay up is ludicrous.

 

We're heading in one direction, our current form is actually the worst of any team in the league, bar none.

 

I know that, but it doesn't tell the whole story. Anyway, it's pointless us debating this.

[Guest neesy111]

There's an 80% chance we'll do down? Even for you that is crazy.

How is it crazy?

 

I don't really know what you want me to explain. I believe it's crazy to think it's 80% likely we'll go down.

 

We're 2 points from the relegation zone.

We've just gained 6 points from 36 available.

We have the 2nd worst defence in the league.

We have a piss poor squad that has just let go it's best striker for 8 years.

Our manager decides that a striker with 2 league goals in 2012 is better than one who scored 17 through the middle.

15 months since we scored from a corner.

27 months since we came from behind to win in the league.

No Away Win All Season.

Longest run without an away win in almost 30 years.

 

But all those positives will keep us up.

[AyeDubbleYoo]

FYI we're currently 8/1 on Betfair to go down. That's an implied 11.1% chance of us going down. I'm not saying that's the correct probability, but if anyone genuinely thinks we've an 80% chance of dropping, and doesn't have qualms with betting against their team, then they should really pump some money in because that's an incredible value bet.

 

A lot of people on here will be making a fortune from that.

[Wullie]

FYI we're currently 8/1 on Betfair to go down. That's an implied 11.1% chance of us going down. I'm not saying that's the correct probability, but if anyone genuinely thinks we've an 80% chance of dropping, and doesn't have qualms with betting against their team, then they should really pump some money in because that's an incredible value bet.

 

A lot of people on here will be making a fortune from that.

 

I made a mint when we went down last time like.

[Mick]

 

 

I know that, but it doesn't tell the whole story. Anyway, it's pointless us debating this.

 

What part of the story is missing?

[AyeDubbleYoo]

FYI we're currently 8/1 on Betfair to go down. That's an implied 11.1% chance of us going down. I'm not saying that's the correct probability, but if anyone genuinely thinks we've an 80% chance of dropping, and doesn't have qualms with betting against their team, then they should really pump some money in because that's an incredible value bet.

 

A lot of people on here will be making a fortune from that.

 

I made a mint when we went down last time like.

 

Have you put money on it this season?

[AyeDubbleYoo]

 

 

I know that, but it doesn't tell the whole story. Anyway, it's pointless us debating this.

 

What part of the story is missing?

 

Like I said, there's nothing to be gained by me making the argument.

[Dokko]

From 8 to 9.

[Jack Flash]

Where's Interpolic?

[Mick]

 

 

Like I said, there's nothing to be gained by me making the argument.

 

I wouldn't mind knowing what you're expecting, we've lost our top scorer and today the manager thinks Shola is better up front than Cisse.  If that is the level of his judgement then why should we expect him to do what most people think is the best for the club?

 

The way I see it, he’s so arrogant that he probably doesn’t think anything he does is wrong.

[Guest neesy111]

 

 

Like I said, there's nothing to be gained by me making the argument.

 

I wouldn't mind knowing what you're expecting, we've lost our top scorer and today the manager thinks Shola is better up front than Cisse.  If that is the level of his judgement then why should we expect him to do what most people think is the best for the club?

 

The way I see it, he’s so arrogant that he probably doesn’t think anything he does is wrong.

 

That's how he was like at the end of his West Ham days.

[Wullie]

There's an 80% chance we'll do down? Even for you that is crazy.

How is it crazy?

 

I don't really know what you want me to explain. I believe it's crazy to think it's 80% likely we'll go down.

 

We're 2 points from the relegation zone.

We've just gained 6 points from 36 available.

We have the 2nd worst defence in the league.

We have a piss poor squad that has just let go it's best striker for 8 years.

Our manager decides that a striker with 2 league goals in 2012 is better than one who scored 17 through the middle.

15 months since we scored from a corner.

27 months since we came from behind to win in the league.

No Away Win All Season.

Longest run without an away win in almost 30 years.

 

But all those positives will keep us up.

 

I'd be interested to know when we last went on a run of form this poor. When Pardew got the bullet from West Ham, it was their worst in seventy years. Wouldn't be surprised if this was far off.

[ExiledGeordie]

I've moved up from a 3 to a 5/6

[Jordan]

8 atm. This window is gigantic. Could go one of three ways: 1) Only bring Debuchy in and we're going down. 2)Sign Debuchy and a striker. We'll struggle and finish between 10-15th 3) Sign Debuchy, a CB and two strikers. There will be no threat and we should push into top ten.

[Guest neesy111]

Seriously if the club does not find a CB then it deserves to be relegated.

[AyeDubbleYoo]

Seriously if the club does not find a CB then it deserves to be relegated.

 

There's definitely some truth in this, the need has been clear for ages. January signings are tough but we need this badly.

[johnnypd]

Seriously, if the club does not find a CB then it deserves relegation.

 

Just remembered the mental first touch by Williamson that set Jelavic free  lad might be an average defender at best but he's no footballer.

[ExiledGeordie]

Yeah it's fucking criminal if we don't sing a centre half.

 

My only thing (hope) is that the other teams around us are playing with what they have and what they'll probably have for rest of the season whereas we have potentially 4-5 startes our injured to come back

[Mick]

Where are the players going to get a lift from?  They clearly need one, the best I think we can hope for is that we put Reading to the sword, failing that, we're screwed and relying on others doing worse than we do.

[alexf]

Striker is now more important than a CB which seems crazy but if we go into the remainder of the season with just Shola as back up then we are fucked.

[Guest neesy111]

Seriously if the club does not find a CB then it deserves to be relegated.

 

There's definitely some truth in this, the need has been clear for ages. January signings are tough but we need this badly.

 

We needed a CB when Sol Campbell left the club and we haven't had a sight of anyone else joining the club, seriously some heads need banging at the club over this.