Relegationometer

[cp40]

hey gimp+ chez, this was about the threat of relegation, .. go and start yourselves an ARGUOMETER somewhere else,...

[marko1892]

gone for 5, I think it could go either way. I worry about our inability to 'fight' for survival. January is gonna be important

[Scoreboard82]

When you think about it, all you need to stay up is average a point per game. While it's not gauranteed, and it would be brown trouser time at the end of the season, 38 points would be about enough.

[ElDiablo]

2.

 

All these 7's are ridiculous, so you reckon we're more likely to go down than not? Or have I read the OP wrong?

[NG32]

2.

 

All these 7's are ridiculous, so you reckon we're more likely to go down than not? Or have I read the OP wrong?

 

Erm, what about the people who voted 8, 9 and 10?

 

I voted 7 because we are sat 4th bottom at the moment, the club is in turmoil and we have a small squad.  If we can get 3pts this weekend against stoke I'll start looking up.  If we blow it tho, i shudder to think.

[cp40]

2.

 

All these 7's are ridiculous, so you reckon we're more likely to go down than not? Or have I read the OP wrong?

 

 

i think anthing greater than 5 means, you think it is more likely than not.

[chicago_shearer]

I would have put it much higher than a 4 if it had not been for the Villa match.  That lets me cling to the hope that there may be something like a decent team in there somewhere.  If we can get that team to show up 6 or 7 times before the end of the season then we will be OK.  A lot will depend on this Stoke result.  You can't muck about in fixtures like that, it is absolutely crucial we take 3 points.

[cp40]

wish i had done the numbers the other way round now, cos we would have a festive relegaton Christmas tree.

[Mick]

Has anybody admitted to going for 10?

[Robster]

2.

 

All these 7's are ridiculous, so you reckon we're more likely to go down than not? Or have I read the OP wrong?

Certainly. Being 4th bottom( on goal difference only) at the start of December and having only won 3 games so far this season would suggest that it is more likely that we go down than not. Not sure why its such a staggering suggestion.

 

[cp40]

Has anybody admitted to going for 10?

 

you can dissmiss them as cranks or piss takers, cos for me it could only be a ten if you were in the bottom three around easter time.,

[Mick]

Certainly. Being 4th bottom( on goal difference only) at the start of December and having only won 3 games so far this season would suggest that it is more likely that we go down than not. Not sure why its such a staggering suggestion.

 

 

I can't agree with that, it's far too simplistic.

[Robster]

Certainly. Being 4th bottom( on goal difference only) at the start of December and having only won 3 games so far this season would suggest that it is more likely that we go down than not. Not sure why its such a staggering suggestion.

 

 

I can't agree with that, it's far too simplistic.

Just not sure how complicated it can be really Mick. The club isnt in a good position on all sides so the possibility of relegation is greater than ever for me. The added form so far this year of Stoke and Hull is what bothers me. We cant just assume that they will hit a bad run and join us down the bottom. While our form has definitely steadied under Joe, we havent enjoyed an explosion of form to pull us away like Bolton and Fulham and I just dont see us having the eventual resurgence that we had last year

Obviously hope to god I am wrong - i will gladly be proved wrong. I think if we survive it will be by the skin of our teeth.

[ChezGiven]

Certainly. Being 4th bottom( on goal difference only) at the start of December and having only won 3 games so far this season would suggest that it is more likely that we go down than not. Not sure why its such a staggering suggestion.

 

 

I can't agree with that, it's far too simplistic.

 

It doesnt take account of the period we went through after the club imploded or the time taken for Kinnear to get the players sorted out. Our season started post-everton and since then we've done ok. 11 points from 9 games, 14 from 10 on saturday with a bit of luck.

[Robster]

It doesnt take account of the period we went through after the club imploded or the time taken for Kinnear to get the players sorted out. Our season started post-everton and since then we've done ok. 11 points from 9 games, 14 from 10 on saturday with a bit of luck.

To be honest I wasnt trying to look too deeply into it. I simply considered where we are as of today and how capable we are of pulling away from everyone else.

With the form being shown by the other teams, I think we will be in that bottom pack for most of the season. I fear we may have too many drawn games to pull away.

WBA appear to be struggling and maybe the Makems might find themselves cut adrift if they arent careful. Taking that into account, I worry (is maybe a better word than think) that we will be one of the clubs capable of being in the fight to avoid that last spot.

[Guest Darth Toon]

I got us finishing on 42 points on the relegationometer thingy, but that included 7 points from the last 3 games, so I reckon there could be some tense moments before the season is out.

[Teasy]

At the minute i'll say 7 if we don't beat Stoke i'll say 9.  We are almost halfway thru the season, just above the relegation zone and the way the fixtures have worked out, we have the harder set of fixtures coming up.  We can't win away and have tough home games after xmas.

 

Our next 15 games are definitely easier on paper then our first 15 and so far we've played three of the top four all away from home.

[Neil]

At the minute i'll say 7 if we don't beat Stoke i'll say 9.  We are almost halfway thru the season, just above the relegation zone and the way the fixtures have worked out, we have the harder set of fixtures coming up.  We can't win away and have tough home games after xmas.

 

Our next 15 games are definitely easier on paper then our first 15 and so far we've played three of the top four all away from home.

 

Implying you'll get results at home?

[Teasy]

Erm no, I'm implying that being at home gives you an advantage compared to playing away (12 points at home and 3 away so far), unless you're Everton

[Neil]

Goodison's been a fortress this year.

 

For the opposition.

 

Just pointing out some of the justification of people saying relegation is unlikely. I think it's unlikely down to the fact that although it's going to be messy, there's enough quality to pick up an odd win here and there, and enough spirit from the likes of Kinnear to grind out enough results.

 

It is however a possibility in so much that even a home game against Stoke is causing anxiety, which it really shouldn't, no matter what the situation is.

 

I don't buy this whole "we got points at Man Utd and Chelsea therefore we'll stay up" malarky, due to the other end of the sresults pectre that the team has displayed this season.

[Teasy]

Just pointing out some of the justification of people saying relegation is unlikely.

 

I also think relegation is unlikely, that was the point of my post really.  Last season our first 15 or so games were very easy on paper and the second half of the season was the fixture list from hell.  But this season its much more balanced.

[chicago_shearer]

What we need is some good old fashioned panic buying in January.  Or if not complete panic, at least a far greater sense of urgency than financial prudence.  Assuming Ashley is still prepared to invest in this club, money and reputation (what's left of it) are the advantage we still have over the others in the relegation fight.  It's what allows us to still attract players like Jonas, Coloccini etc.  There are no excuses for how thin this squad is on quality and numbers.  I'd be more than happy to pay over the odds for some top drawer talent that would still be out of the financial reach of Stoke, Hull, Wigan etc. if it gives us an advantage.  People may bristle at the idea of buying your way out of a crisis in January (Tore Andre Flo  ) but the needs need addressing ASAP.  If the choice is 5 more months of Butt & Guthrie in a relegation battle or taking a gamble in the transfer window, I'll roll the dice every time because spunking too much money on an experienced foreign merc that does a serviceable job in midfield is considerably less expensive than relegation. 

[Guest optimistic nit]

2.

 

All these 7's are ridiculous, so you reckon we're more likely to go down than not? Or have I read the OP wrong?

Certainly. Being 4th bottom( on goal difference only) at the start of December and having only won 3 games so far this season would suggest that it is more likely that we go down than not. Not sure why its such a staggering suggestion.

 

 

did you borrow that logic from karl pilkington?

[Dunedin]

We have one of the worst midfields in the Prem. Unless we buy some quality for the midfield in Jan I think the possibility of relegation remains. Also when was the last time we dominated a game at St James ? When did we last score more than 2 goals in a prem league match ?

[NE5]

I don't think its quite the certainty it was a few months ago, because Kinnear has lifted the spirits at the club. People are giving him a hard time, but most good managers wouldn't touch us with a bargepole just now and he deserves a lot of credit for getting on with the job.

 

I'm not in the slightest bit bothered about the things he says in public. If anything, I think his rants are a good thing and could even be deliberate to promote a togetherness mentality, which is what is needed.