PIF and RB Sports & Media

[r0cafella]

6 minutes ago, manorpark said:

 

There is no (what you call) 'optimism' in my post at all !!!

 

There is a huge tendency amongst some people to only think "the way things are now" is basically the way things will always be. THAT completely limits what can happen, in peoples minds.

 

With the right people involved, and we have the right people involved, how things are now can soon become a relic of a long forgotten past.

It’s full on cope tbh, and I don’t mean it disrespectfully either. 
 

As requested, if you can provide something concrete to disprove what I’m saying is genuinely love to hear it. Your argument above is basically don’t let your mind limit what you believe. 

[Abacus]

8 hours ago, r0cafella said:

I love the optimism, but let’s be real here. With all of the restrictions that have been put in place we will not be overtaking Man city, we leagues apart and any opportunity to catch up is being taken away  

 

I’ve been saying for sometime FFP will only get more restrictive and it does appear to be trending that way. It’s any I made my rather gloomy post, the market they bought into is already quite different. 

To be honest, I've been thinking along similar lines. Having had to fight tooth and nail for so long to even get the club, and then, when finally let in being completely prevented from doing what they'd hoped to do, it's either another long battle or stepping away. Hope it's the former, if only to give them time to get the infrastructure right.

[et tu brute]

5 hours ago, r0cafella said:

He can state what he wants, it doesn’t really impact upon what I’ve posted. Unless he’s prepared to either break the rules or change them, neither of which look imminent. 
 

And again?what voices are discontenting? Last I checked the league had passed more stringent measures  

 

ultimately everyone can chip in with a voice but if they aren’t shareholders in the league they don’t actually get a real say and I’ve outlined a few times previously why the status quo is great for 80% of the league. 
 

to be successful, you need a path and I just don’t see our path to success, we might be able to compete for European spots but challenging for the league and being up there with the so called elite? I just don’t see how we can achieve it with the artificial constraints we are under. 

I'll listen to the chairman before you with all respect. He will know exactly the constraints in place and how the club will move forward to get to the level required. You're not going to get to the necessary revenue levels in two years. We have already increased revenue levels year on year by over 30% since the takeover. This will continue. As for the disconcerting voices, you must have your head buried in the sand if you've not seen a number of clubs and media voicing issues over the last few weeks. I don't agree with you, but only time will tell what happens. 

[The Prophet]

9 hours ago, manorpark said:

 

My understanding of the character and culture of PIF is very different to that.

 

They want to win, they are very intelligent and powerful and they 'intend' to win.

 

Whatever it takes - 'no more mister nice guy' or whatever - they will win through. I suspect they already see the EPL and the Cartel as an enemy, and what are enemies for? To be BEATEN, that is what they are for!

 

[Colos Short and Curlies]

1 hour ago, Abacus said:

To be honest, I've been thinking along similar lines. Having had to fight tooth and nail for so long to even get the club, and then, when finally let in being completely prevented from doing what they'd hoped to do, it's either another long battle or stepping away. Hope it's the former, if only to give them time to get the infrastructure right.

 

To be honest I doubt they were that involved in the battle to get the club. Amanda will have been doing the hard running, it will have been a bit of background noise to PIF until the point it got close

[r0cafella]

40 minutes ago, Colos Short and Curlies said:

 

To be honest I doubt they were that involved in the battle to get the club. Amanda will have been doing the hard running, it will have been a bit of background noise to PIF until the point it got close

From what you’ve seen how much of a FFP hole are we in?

[Colos Short and Curlies]

11 minutes ago, r0cafella said:

From what you’ve seen how much of a FFP hole are we in?

 

I think we've danced around the drain this year. If we take the Swiss Ramble figures as a reference point then we can deduct around £10m of costs from the published accounts to get to the FFP profit/loss, it seems like we need to make a FFP profit of £15m this season (again using the SR figures as the actual values aren't published) so that's a break even / £5m profit position needed in the accounts.

 

Starting at a loss of £70m (ish) we're increasing our amortisation by £20m (5 years of Tonali, Barnes and Livramento) but have roughly the same profit from selling Maxi and will have some of the amortisation value from last year fall off. 

We're then left with needing an increase in TV money, prize money and sponsorship to total around £65m more than 2022/2023. Champions league is worth around £20m and Sela £25m.

 

So I think we'll be OK this year, but getting 5th or 6th and a cup final would help to reduce the loss from finishing 4th and the Carabao final. This is also the worst season for us if we bat smartly as we should be increasing our income and the pool of players who have a sales value to move forward.

 

It is a bit of guess work though as we don't have the full breakdowns on what goes into the FFP calcs

[r0cafella]

16 minutes ago, Colos Short and Curlies said:

 

I think we've danced around the drain this year. If we take the Swiss Ramble figures as a reference point then we can deduct around £10m of costs from the published accounts to get to the FFP profit/loss, it seems like we need to make a FFP profit of £15m this season (again using the SR figures as the actual values aren't published) so that's a break even / £5m profit position needed in the accounts.

 

Starting at a loss of £70m (ish) we're increasing our amortisation by £20m (5 years of Tonali, Barnes and Livramento) but have roughly the same profit from selling Maxi and will have some of the amortisation value from last year fall off. 

We're then left with needing an increase in TV money, prize money and sponsorship to total around £65m more than 2022/2023. Champions league is worth around £20m and Sela £25m.

 

So I think we'll be OK this year, but getting 5th or 6th and a cup final would help to reduce the loss from finishing 4th and the Carabao final. This is also the worst season for us if we bat smartly as we should be increasing our income and the pool of players who have a sales value to move forward.

 

It is a bit of guess work though as we don't have the full breakdowns on what goes into the FFP calcs

Love it thanks for sharing. 
 

So given the above, what would you expect to see happen in the summer in terms of sales and purchase? What kind of net spend would you project given the very limited information at hand. 

[Dr Jinx]

I think they’re still learning on the job with this one but ultimately I think their end goal would be to own the Premier League in the same way they have a stake in other various sports.

 

Probing for weaknesses is probably the name of the game currently.

[r0cafella]

Just now, Dr Jinx said:

I think they’re still learning on the job with this one but ultimately I think their end goal would be to own the Premier League in the same way they have a stake in other various sports.

 

Probing for weaknesses is probably the name of the game currently.

They can’t own the league though, well they can be in order to do so they would have to own all of the clubs in the league and that just isn’t going to happen. 

[Dr Jinx]

1 minute ago, r0cafella said:

They can’t own the league though, well they can be in order to do so they would have to own all of the clubs in the league and that just isn’t going to happen. 

No I think they’ll propose a breakaway league in the same way they did LIV golf.. something like that.. but not until they are cosy with the FA and other leagues.

 

Ultimately after a power struggle, the PL will back down and merge giving PIF the seat at the table and a bit of a rebrand.

 

It’s worth more to them than having a single club dominating.

 

Don’t get me wrong, they won’t drop us like a stone.. we’ll be left in very good shape whenever they sell us and whoever they sell to won’t be a bunch of chancers.

[TRon]

Reading in The Times today that the PL are looking to bring in tighter rules against sponsorships and transfer deals with associated clubs.

 

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/premier-league-clubs-face-sanctions-for-inflating-sponsorship-deals-htzdwctnl

 

 

Looks like the cartel clubs are looking to lock in their supremacy forever, and the PL will support their bid. I really don't see how PIF can hope to compete any time soon unless they are prepared to go to court under restriction of trade.

[r0cafella]

2 minutes ago, Dr Jinx said:

No I think they’ll propose a breakaway league in the same way they did LIV golf.. something like that.. but not until they are cosy with the FA and other leagues.

 

Ultimately after a power struggle, the PL will back down and merge giving PIF the seat at the table and a bit of a rebrand.

 

It’s worth more to them than having a single club dominating.

 

Don’t get me wrong, they won’t drop us like a stone.. we’ll be left in very good shape whenever they sell us and whoever they sell to won’t be a bunch of chancers.

This also isn’t going to happen, the super league is dead in this country, the fan revolt from a breakaway of the premier league would make the super league one look like a toddlers tantrum before nap time. 

[Stifler]

43 minutes ago, r0cafella said:

This also isn’t going to happen, the super league is dead in this country, the fan revolt from a breakaway of the premier league would make the super league one look like a toddlers tantrum before nap time. 

I disagree. Not one of those clubs would have thought that it would go down well, the only surprise is that it was Man Utd fans out of all them who made the biggest uproar against it.

They all knew how it would play out, but they planted the seed, and now they already have Liverpool fans, and to a lesser extent Arsenal fans screaming for it to happen.

It will come back, and with the likes of Everton, Villa, and us all being fucked off by the changing of the rules to keep us down, amongst teams like Palace who have just realised that they can’t build their new stand, they just might have a few more owners and possibly fans who are receptive of it.

[Paully]

https://www.mirror.co.uk/sport/football/news/premier-league-rivals-blocking-saudi-32284487

[r0cafella]

4 minutes ago, Stifler said:

I disagree. Not one of those clubs would have thought that it would go down well, the only surprise is that it was Man Utd fans out of all them who made the biggest uproar against it.

They all knew how it would play out, but they planted the seed, and now they already have Liverpool fans, and to a lesser extent Arsenal fans screaming for it to happen.

It will come back, and with the likes of Everton, Villa, and us all being fucked off by the changing of the rules to keep us down, amongst teams like Palace who have just realised that they can’t build their new stand, they just might have a few more owners and possibly fans who are receptive of it.

Stif man, reality check nobody is going to watch a league featuring us Villa and Everton. Of all the scenarios people come a breakaway domestic league is the most fanciful. 

[Stifler]

10 minutes ago, r0cafella said:

Stif man, reality check nobody is going to watch a league featuring us Villa and Everton. Of all the scenarios people come a breakaway domestic league is the most fanciful. 

I mean they already do, but my point is that not only would they have the Sky 6 clubs willing to crossover, but potentially more clubs outside of them as well.

[Colos Short and Curlies]

17 minutes ago, Paully said:

https://www.mirror.co.uk/sport/football/news/premier-league-rivals-blocking-saudi-32284487

 

There's a whiff of a journalist being briefed in that story

[Colos Short and Curlies]

1 hour ago, r0cafella said:

Love it thanks for sharing. 
 

So given the above, what would you expect to see happen in the summer in terms of sales and purchase? What kind of net spend would you project given the very limited information at hand. 

 

I'll stick to the current rules here, not the UEFA ones. And even then its hard to say.

 

What we know is that a loss of £60m falls off the calcs and we will make a small profit this year so in simple terms you have what we did this year plus £60m in additional amortisation and wages (working on the basis that Adidas and EL/EC offsets Champions League). So you could spunk £200m in the summer if you wanted to.

 

However, there is a longer term view that we have £60m drop off next year and the year after, but then a profit of £15m will drop off the year after and if you keep a £60m loss in 2024/2025 and 2025/2026 you are back to where we are this season, but with bigger revenues and wages no doubt. So they may go down the route of replacing a £60m loss with a £30m loss for the next 2 years to balance this out. Really depends on how aggressive they see revenue growth.

 

Gun to the head we will spend £250m which will would add £50m of amortisation and £30m-£50m of wages. Taking last year as a starting point

 

£60m FFP loss in 2022/2023

+ £50m increased revenue (Sela, Adidas, Europe)

- £50m amortisation on new purchases (I'm going to assume that the increase from last summer is evened out with previous windows signings dropping off)

- £50m new wages (this is high but not totally unrealistic over a 2 year period)

= £110m FFP loss

 

So we would need to sell £50m profit worth of players. Likely to be Miggy, Wilson, Targett (or we keep Targett and don't follow up on Hall) and another. I don't think it would need to be a Bruno, Joe(s) or Isak

 

That would be pushing the boundaries I think but would be an ambitious summer whilst staying in the rules

 

[r0cafella]

1 minute ago, Colos Short and Curlies said:

 

I'll stick to the current rules here, not the UEFA ones. And even then its hard to say.

 

What we know is that a loss of £60m falls off the calcs and we will make a small profit this year so in simple terms you have what we did this year plus £60m in additional amortisation and wages (working on the basis that Adidas and EL/EC offsets Champions League). So you could spunk £200m in the summer if you wanted to.

 

However, there is a longer term view that we have £60m drop off next year and the year after, but then a profit of £15m will drop off the year after and if you keep a £60m loss in 2024/2025 and 2025/2026 you are back to where we are this season, but with bigger revenues and wages no doubt. So they may go down the route of replacing a £60m loss with a £30m loss for the next 2 years to balance this out. Really depends on how aggressive they see revenue growth.

 

Gun to the head we will spend £250m which will would add £50m of amortisation and £30m-£50m of wages. Taking last year as a starting point

 

£60m FFP loss in 2022/2023

+ £50m increased revenue (Sela, Adidas, Europe)

- £50m amortisation on new purchases (I'm going to assume that the increase from last summer is evened out with previous windows signings dropping off)

- £50m new wages (this is high but not totally unrealistic over a 2 year period)

= £110m FFP loss

 

So we would need to sell £50m profit worth of players. Likely to be Miggy, Wilson, Targett (or we keep Targett and don't follow up on Hall) and another. I don't think it would need to be a Bruno, Joe(s) or Isak

 

That would be pushing the boundaries I think but would be an ambitious summer whilst staying in the rules

 

Cracking post thank you for taking the time. Sign me up for the summer transfer rumours thread

[Dokko]

It'll end up in court, and the whole football world will listen. Weve seen it with Marc bosman and Webster, these rules aren't legally binding. 

 

We're setting it up, have been from the start, and now we've onboarded a few more clubs and media to fight our battle for us. 

 

At the moment, living in our means suits us. It stops clubs taking a total lens on us while we grow a bit organically. Eventually though we'll want to push through the ceiling and the legal groundwork will have been done to do so.

 

I reckon the PL and eufa will fold a little and the sustainability rules loosened with inflation as the reason. This will allow us to operate slightly higher but it's only a stay of execution. Ffp is coming to an end, they've done all they can to protect the top 6, it can't go on forever. 

[Keegans Export]

14 minutes ago, Dokko said:

I reckon the PL and eufa will fold a little and the sustainability rules loosened with inflation as the reason. This will allow us to operate slightly higher but it's only a stay of execution. Ffp is coming to an end, they've done all they can to protect the top 6, it can't go on forever. 

The argument about the allowable losses going up with "football inflation" is a fair one, but its still the same system in principle. Clubs like ourselves and Villa with the ambition and financial backing still won't be able to spend enough to catch up with the established clubs.

[Colos Short and Curlies]

9 minutes ago, Keegans Export said:

The argument about the allowable losses going up with "football inflation" is a fair one, but its still the same system in principle. Clubs like ourselves and Villa with the ambition and financial backing still won't be able to spend enough to catch up with the established clubs.

 

I'd say you can if you have the financial backing, enough scope to invest in the team and a strong recruitment model coupled with a good coach.

 

You don't need to be breaking or even getting close to world record fees to have a team competing, you need a structure that identifies those not quite at that level but who will become 'world' class in a year or 2. You need to investment room to allow the players to grow into the team over a few years and not feel that you need to sell them.

 

If the allowable losses were £180m rather than £105m I'd say we could both get a team that is right in the mix with the Sky 6 and can outpace at least 2 of them with the teams we have in place

[nufcnick]

55 minutes ago, Colos Short and Curlies said:

 

I'll stick to the current rules here, not the UEFA ones. And even then its hard to say.

 

What we know is that a loss of £60m falls off the calcs and we will make a small profit this year so in simple terms you have what we did this year plus £60m in additional amortisation and wages (working on the basis that Adidas and EL/EC offsets Champions League). So you could spunk £200m in the summer if you wanted to.

 

However, there is a longer term view that we have £60m drop off next year and the year after, but then a profit of £15m will drop off the year after and if you keep a £60m loss in 2024/2025 and 2025/2026 you are back to where we are this season, but with bigger revenues and wages no doubt. So they may go down the route of replacing a £60m loss with a £30m loss for the next 2 years to balance this out. Really depends on how aggressive they see revenue growth.

 

Gun to the head we will spend £250m which will would add £50m of amortisation and £30m-£50m of wages. Taking last year as a starting point

 

£60m FFP loss in 2022/2023

+ £50m increased revenue (Sela, Adidas, Europe)

- £50m amortisation on new purchases (I'm going to assume that the increase from last summer is evened out with previous windows signings dropping off)

- £50m new wages (this is high but not totally unrealistic over a 2 year period)

= £110m FFP loss

 

So we would need to sell £50m profit worth of players. Likely to be Miggy, Wilson, Targett (or we keep Targett and don't follow up on Hall) and another. I don't think it would need to be a Bruno, Joe(s) or Isak

 

That would be pushing the boundaries I think but would be an ambitious summer whilst staying in the rules

 

You have added adidas to 22/23, adidas doesn’t start til the 24/25 season 

[Colos Short and Curlies]

Just now, nufcnick said:

You have added adidas to 22/23, adidas doesn’t start til the 24/25 season 

 

I know the Adidas money kicks in next season, I've skipped the current season as the ask was what can we do in the summer. This starts at what we did in 2022/2023 (£60m loss for FFP) and then adjusted for what we know will change for 2024/2025 such as sponsorships and Europe.

 

Basically I'm working on the assumption that we go pretty far in EL or CL next season and this plus the Adidas money equals our CL and Fun88 money from the current season so I can add it to the £60m loss