PIF, PCP, and RB Sports & Media

[Isaksbigrightfoot]

On 15/01/2024 at 08:31, GeordieT said:

I’m a subscriber so will post a few choice excerpts later today, it’s an illuminating read as usual.

 

On FFP, his suggestion is this season might have been closer than anyone else previously had imagined:

 

 

“PIF inherited a pretty solid FFP position from Ashley, as the former owner’s tightfisted approach to spending meant that they had a fair amount of wriggle room.

 

In fact, I estimate that they were £109m better than the £105m maximum allowed loss over the three-year monitoring period up to 2021/22 (including the single period average of the COVID-impacted 2019/20 and 2020/21 seasons).

 

However, the FFP monitoring period is a moving target, so the 2022/23 calculation dropped the £41m 2018/19 profit, replacing it with last season’s £73m loss, i.e. a negative swing of £114m.

 

After making deductions for “healthy” expenditure (infrastructure, academy, community and women’s football) and COVID losses, I reckon that Newcastle were still just about within target, but it must have been mighty close”.

This explains why we are not spending and probably won’t unless we sell.

 

It is highly likely we sell Bruno you know. The income would hit FFP instantly swinging it 100m and allow us to buy two or three players.

 

Would you want that all?

[Shearergol]

18 minutes ago, Isaksbigrightfoot said:

This explains why we are not spending and probably won’t unless we sell.

 

It is highly likely we sell Bruno you know. The income would hit FFP instantly swinging it 100m and allow us to buy two or three players.

 

Would you want that all?

 

We'd sign 3 top class players and they'd all be injured within a day.

[SAK]

1 hour ago, Geogaddi said:

https://theathletic.com/5197880/2024/01/16/newcastle-united-al-rumayyan-pif/

 

Yasir Al-Rumayyan, the chairman of Newcastle United and LIV Golf, faces being sued for allegedly “having carried out the instructions” of the Saudi Arabian Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman (MBS), with “the malicious intent” of “harming, silencing and ultimately destroying” the family of the country’s former intelligence chief, Dr Saad Aljabri.

The claims are made in legal papers that were dispatched to Al-Rumayyan at multiple high-profile locations — including St James’ Park, Newcastle United’s home stadium, during the second week of January.
 

 

It’s a civil case not a criminal one so nothing of any consequence with regards to us. 

[Scotty66]

5 minutes ago, SAK said:

It’s a civil case not a criminal one so nothing of any consequence with regards to us. 

But if found "guilty" then surely that would open the doors to anyone being able to proceed with a criminal case which would be a massive massive problem for us?

 

 

Edited January 16 by Scotty66

[KingArthur]

It is a civil case in Canada. How is it possible to put a claim about things that happened in Saudi Arabia in Canadian court? 

 

We all know that KSA is a shithole country and that story also proves MBS is a despot with no regards for human rights. MBS claims this guy embezzled money and he claims they did all kinds of nasty stuff to his family. God knows what is truth here.. 

 

 

[SAK]

1 hour ago, Scotty66 said:

But if found "guilty" then surely that would open the doors to anyone being able to proceed with a criminal case which would be a massive massive problem for us?

 

 

 

 

No legal expertise but the burden of proof for a civil case is lower than for a criminal case and the remedy is normally awarding damages hence the complainant is suing for money. If there was proof of criminality why not lodge a criminal case in Saudi Arabia. I accept that may be difficult considering who Yasir is and his position in the Saudi regime and the complainant fled to Canada with the Saudi government claiming he misappropriated funds.

 

 

Edited January 16 by SAK
Expanded response.

[Mag3.14]

3 hours ago, JonBez comesock said:

UEFA limit is 70% 

So still not ideal 

 

Same situation 

 

Need more sponsors / income/ turnover in order to spend / pay decent wages 

 

chicken / egg

 

UEFA's 70% limit is from 2025/26 season -  For 2023/24 is 90%, next season is 80% so we're under 

[WilliamPS]

2 hours ago, Isaksbigrightfoot said:

This explains why we are not spending and probably won’t unless we sell.

 

It is highly likely we sell Bruno you know. The income would hit FFP instantly swinging it 100m and allow us to buy two or three players.

 

Would you want that all?

At the start of next season the first -73 rolls off, so the club can spend again 

[nufcnick]

13 minutes ago, WilliamPS said:

At the start of next season the first -73 rolls off, so the club can spend again 

No it doesn’t 

[TheBrownBottle]

26 minutes ago, nufcnick said:

No it doesn’t 

It does - it’s for 21/22.  Next season it is 22/23, 23/24, 24/25 which counts for FFP

[nufcnick]

12 minutes ago, TheBrownBottle said:

It does - it’s for 21/22.  Next season it is 22/23, 23/24, 24/25 which counts for FFP

Are you sure about that, how can you produce accounts for 2025 when we’re in 2024 

[Colos Short and Curlies]

31 minutes ago, nufcnick said:

Are you sure about that, how can you produce accounts for 2025 when we’re in 2024 

 

Because what we spend from the 1st July 2024 goes into the accounts for the year to 30th June 2025 (i.e. 2024/2025) which is what next seasons totals include. Its a retrospective use of accounts in FFP

 

[timeEd32]

There's been a lot of confusion about accounting years so here goes:

• The accounts we just released are for 2022/23 (aka last season). It includes PL prize money for finishing 4th and anything we earned from going to the League Cup final. 
• Anything that has happened since July 1, 2023 will be in this season's 2023/24 accounts. These will close on June 30, 2024 so we don't know the full story, but this includes the sales of Maxi and Wood, the new Sela sponsorship, and Champions League revenue (estimated at £37m per a comment in the latest accounts). It does not include Adidas. I think our revenue will exceed £300m for the first time ever. These accounts will be published ~January 2025.
• The 2024/25 accounting period will begin on July 1 of this year, so Adidas will be included moving forward. We don't know anything else yet about this accounting year, though we can probably assume there will be no Champions League payments. Even without European participation I think our revenue will be ~£300m. These accounts will be published ~January 2026.

Rolling three year periods (numbers below are from the Swiss Ramble, which are educated estimates):

• 2020/21 (Covid blend) > 2021/22 > 2022/23: This period is closed and we have all of the numbers. We took things to the limit with a £13m profit in 2020/21 (thanks to Covid write-offs), £60m loss in 2021/22, and a £58m loss in 2022/23 (these numbers are after allowed deductions for infrastructure, academy, community, and women's football). That's a total loss of £105m.
• 2021/22 > 2022/23 > 2023/24: We are into the final six months of this period and we know the previous one only balanced out with a £13m profit which we're dropping, so presumably that is our current aim for 2023/24 as well. We know revenue will be up considerably due to UCL participation, Sela, and player sales. Whether that's enough without selling a player in June I don't know. We could also increase the allowable deductions if it's close. 
• 2022/23 > 2023/24 > 2024/25: Starting July 1 this will be the three year period that matters. It will include the £58m loss in 2022/23, but also (assuming we don't fall foul of FFP) a ~£13m profit in 2023/24. So we'll be able to book a loss of £60m again if we want to push it to the limit.
• 2023/24 > 2024/25 > 2025/26: We're 18 months from this starting, but this should be a fun time. We will drop the £58m loss in 2022/23, so should be another good spending year after hopefully a more successful 2024/25 season, and all previously neglected parts of the club kicking into gear.

---------

 

There are a lot of things to be frustrated about right now, but this window through June 30 is also the most we are likely to be impacted by the Premier League's financial restrictions in the next couple years (UEFA rules tbd). And that's even if the rules don't change at all, which is starting to seem unlikely. I expect the next three windows - Summer 2024, January 2025, and Summer 2025 - to be far more eventful (and yes, it will include outgoings).

 

 

Edited January 16 by timeEd32

[Keegans Export]

10 minutes ago, Colos Short and Curlies said:

 

Because what we spend from the 1st July 2024 goes into the accounts for the year to 30th June 2025 (i.e. 2024/2025) which is what next seasons totals include. Its a retrospective use of accounts in FFP

 

This is correct. 

 

The most recent period (the one Everton and Forest are in bother over) is 20/21 21/22 and 22/23.

 

The next period is 21/22, 22/23 and 23/24 and the one including next season will be 22/23, 23/24 and 24/25 so all that spending we did in 21/22 will no longer go into the FFP calculation. 

 

The hope is that we'll have made enough money this year from CL, Sela deal and the Wood & ASM sales to keep us out of bother, then once 1st July 2024 rolls round that big loss in 21/22 is no longer in the figures.

[duo]

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/football/article-12970945/OLIVER-HOLT-Premier-League-Richard-Masters-Man-City-case-doubt-champions.html

 

How is this man in the job he comes across as totally incompetent? ....Oh wait...

[Yorkie]

Appreciate your summaries, @timeEd32 

[The Bonk]

4 hours ago, timeEd32 said:

There's been a lot of confusion about accounting years so here goes:

• The accounts we just released are for 2022/23 (aka last season). It includes PL prize money for finishing 4th and anything we earned from going to the League Cup final. 
• Anything that has happened since July 1, 2023 will be in this season's 2023/24 accounts. These will close on June 30, 2024 so we don't know the full story, but this includes the sales of Maxi and Wood, the new Sela sponsorship, and Champions League revenue (estimated at £37m per a comment in the latest accounts). It does not include Adidas. I think our revenue will exceed £300m for the first time ever. These accounts will be published ~January 2025.
• The 2024/25 accounting period will begin on July 1 of this year, so Adidas will be included moving forward. We don't know anything else yet about this accounting year, though we can probably assume there will be no Champions League payments. Even without European participation I think our revenue will be ~£300m. These accounts will be published ~January 2026.

Rolling three year periods (numbers below are from the Swiss Ramble, which are educated estimates):

• 2020/21 (Covid blend) > 2021/22 > 2022/23: This period is closed and we have all of the numbers. We took things to the limit with a £13m profit in 2020/21 (thanks to Covid write-offs), £60m loss in 2021/22, and a £58m loss in 2022/23 (these numbers are after allowed deductions for infrastructure, academy, community, and women's football). That's a total loss of £105m.
• 2021/22 > 2022/23 > 2023/24: We are into the final six months of this period and we know the previous one only balanced out with a £13m profit which we're dropping, so presumably that is our current aim for 2023/24 as well. We know revenue will be up considerably due to UCL participation, Sela, and player sales. Whether that's enough without selling a player in June I don't know. We could also increase the allowable deductions if it's close. 
• 2022/23 > 2023/24 > 2024/25: Starting July 1 this will be the three year period that matters. It will include the £58m loss in 2022/23, but also (assuming we don't fall foul of FFP) a ~£13m profit in 2023/24. So we'll be able to book a loss of £60m again if we want to push it to the limit.
• 2023/24 > 2024/25 > 2025/26: We're 18 months from this starting, but this should be a fun time. We will drop the £58m loss in 2022/23, so should be another good spending year after hopefully a more successful 2024/25 season, and all previously neglected parts of the club kicking into gear.

---------

 

There are a lot of things to be frustrated about right now, but this window through June 30 is also the most we are likely to be impacted by the Premier League's financial restrictions in the next couple years (UEFA rules tbd). And that's even if the rules don't change at all, which is starting to seem unlikely. I expect the next three windows - Summer 2024, January 2025, and Summer 2025 - to be far more eventful (and yes, it will include outgoings).

 

 

 

 

Thanks for posting this! 

[The Prophet]

 

[r0cafella]

10 minutes ago, The Prophet said:

 

Proper pulling the ladder stuff up this. We would be massively punished, Europa league qualification would be an absolute disaster. 

[Whitley mag]

11 minutes ago, The Prophet said:

 

Surely just means if you all of a sudden qualify for Europe you’ve got a problem straight away, and rather than invest you’ll be looking to reduce costs.

[r0cafella]

1 minute ago, Whitley mag said:

Surely just means if you all of a sudden qualify for Europe you’ve got a problem straight away, and rather than invest you’ll be looking to reduce costs.

Absolutely, the revenue brought up by those lower competitions brings in basically nothing. Also; the extra games means a larger squad is needed. 

[gbandit]

What the fuck is going on in football governance? Some extremely dodgy stuff happening 

[r0cafella]

Just now, gbandit said:

What the fuck is going on in football governance? Some extremely dodgy stuff happening 

Short answer, everyone is happy with the status quo apart from those who want to challenge. Those who want to challenge are the minority so they are rule takers. 

[Conjo]

12 minutes ago, r0cafella said:

Proper pulling the ladder stuff up this. We would be massively punished, Europa league qualification would be an absolute disaster. 

 

Isn't the 70% to be in line with UEFA requirements that will go into effect in 2 years?

[r0cafella]

2 minutes ago, Conjo said:

 

Isn't the 70% to be in line with UEFA requirements that will go into effect in 2 years?

Maybe but given Uefa give out fines as punishment they can be ignored. Last I checked psg are in the CL every year despite losing more money than god and cooking the books.