Colos Short and Curlies Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 1 hour ago, r0cafella said: Love it thanks for sharing. So given the above, what would you expect to see happen in the summer in terms of sales and purchase? What kind of net spend would you project given the very limited information at hand. I'll stick to the current rules here, not the UEFA ones. And even then its hard to say. What we know is that a loss of £60m falls off the calcs and we will make a small profit this year so in simple terms you have what we did this year plus £60m in additional amortisation and wages (working on the basis that Adidas and EL/EC offsets Champions League). So you could spunk £200m in the summer if you wanted to. However, there is a longer term view that we have £60m drop off next year and the year after, but then a profit of £15m will drop off the year after and if you keep a £60m loss in 2024/2025 and 2025/2026 you are back to where we are this season, but with bigger revenues and wages no doubt. So they may go down the route of replacing a £60m loss with a £30m loss for the next 2 years to balance this out. Really depends on how aggressive they see revenue growth. Gun to the head we will spend £250m which will would add £50m of amortisation and £30m-£50m of wages. Taking last year as a starting point £60m FFP loss in 2022/2023 + £50m increased revenue (Sela, Adidas, Europe) - £50m amortisation on new purchases (I'm going to assume that the increase from last summer is evened out with previous windows signings dropping off) - £50m new wages (this is high but not totally unrealistic over a 2 year period) = £110m FFP loss So we would need to sell £50m profit worth of players. Likely to be Miggy, Wilson, Targett (or we keep Targett and don't follow up on Hall) and another. I don't think it would need to be a Bruno, Joe(s) or Isak That would be pushing the boundaries I think but would be an ambitious summer whilst staying in the rules Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
r0cafella Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 1 minute ago, Colos Short and Curlies said: I'll stick to the current rules here, not the UEFA ones. And even then its hard to say. What we know is that a loss of £60m falls off the calcs and we will make a small profit this year so in simple terms you have what we did this year plus £60m in additional amortisation and wages (working on the basis that Adidas and EL/EC offsets Champions League). So you could spunk £200m in the summer if you wanted to. However, there is a longer term view that we have £60m drop off next year and the year after, but then a profit of £15m will drop off the year after and if you keep a £60m loss in 2024/2025 and 2025/2026 you are back to where we are this season, but with bigger revenues and wages no doubt. So they may go down the route of replacing a £60m loss with a £30m loss for the next 2 years to balance this out. Really depends on how aggressive they see revenue growth. Gun to the head we will spend £250m which will would add £50m of amortisation and £30m-£50m of wages. Taking last year as a starting point £60m FFP loss in 2022/2023 + £50m increased revenue (Sela, Adidas, Europe) - £50m amortisation on new purchases (I'm going to assume that the increase from last summer is evened out with previous windows signings dropping off) - £50m new wages (this is high but not totally unrealistic over a 2 year period) = £110m FFP loss So we would need to sell £50m profit worth of players. Likely to be Miggy, Wilson, Targett (or we keep Targett and don't follow up on Hall) and another. I don't think it would need to be a Bruno, Joe(s) or Isak That would be pushing the boundaries I think but would be an ambitious summer whilst staying in the rules Cracking post thank you for taking the time. Sign me up for the summer transfer rumours thread Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dokko Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 It'll end up in court, and the whole football world will listen. Weve seen it with Marc bosman and Webster, these rules aren't legally binding. We're setting it up, have been from the start, and now we've onboarded a few more clubs and media to fight our battle for us. At the moment, living in our means suits us. It stops clubs taking a total lens on us while we grow a bit organically. Eventually though we'll want to push through the ceiling and the legal groundwork will have been done to do so. I reckon the PL and eufa will fold a little and the sustainability rules loosened with inflation as the reason. This will allow us to operate slightly higher but it's only a stay of execution. Ffp is coming to an end, they've done all they can to protect the top 6, it can't go on forever. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Keegans Export Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 14 minutes ago, Dokko said: I reckon the PL and eufa will fold a little and the sustainability rules loosened with inflation as the reason. This will allow us to operate slightly higher but it's only a stay of execution. Ffp is coming to an end, they've done all they can to protect the top 6, it can't go on forever. The argument about the allowable losses going up with "football inflation" is a fair one, but its still the same system in principle. Clubs like ourselves and Villa with the ambition and financial backing still won't be able to spend enough to catch up with the established clubs. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Colos Short and Curlies Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 9 minutes ago, Keegans Export said: The argument about the allowable losses going up with "football inflation" is a fair one, but its still the same system in principle. Clubs like ourselves and Villa with the ambition and financial backing still won't be able to spend enough to catch up with the established clubs. I'd say you can if you have the financial backing, enough scope to invest in the team and a strong recruitment model coupled with a good coach. You don't need to be breaking or even getting close to world record fees to have a team competing, you need a structure that identifies those not quite at that level but who will become 'world' class in a year or 2. You need to investment room to allow the players to grow into the team over a few years and not feel that you need to sell them. If the allowable losses were £180m rather than £105m I'd say we could both get a team that is right in the mix with the Sky 6 and can outpace at least 2 of them with the teams we have in place Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
nufcnick Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 55 minutes ago, Colos Short and Curlies said: I'll stick to the current rules here, not the UEFA ones. And even then its hard to say. What we know is that a loss of £60m falls off the calcs and we will make a small profit this year so in simple terms you have what we did this year plus £60m in additional amortisation and wages (working on the basis that Adidas and EL/EC offsets Champions League). So you could spunk £200m in the summer if you wanted to. However, there is a longer term view that we have £60m drop off next year and the year after, but then a profit of £15m will drop off the year after and if you keep a £60m loss in 2024/2025 and 2025/2026 you are back to where we are this season, but with bigger revenues and wages no doubt. So they may go down the route of replacing a £60m loss with a £30m loss for the next 2 years to balance this out. Really depends on how aggressive they see revenue growth. Gun to the head we will spend £250m which will would add £50m of amortisation and £30m-£50m of wages. Taking last year as a starting point £60m FFP loss in 2022/2023 + £50m increased revenue (Sela, Adidas, Europe) - £50m amortisation on new purchases (I'm going to assume that the increase from last summer is evened out with previous windows signings dropping off) - £50m new wages (this is high but not totally unrealistic over a 2 year period) = £110m FFP loss So we would need to sell £50m profit worth of players. Likely to be Miggy, Wilson, Targett (or we keep Targett and don't follow up on Hall) and another. I don't think it would need to be a Bruno, Joe(s) or Isak That would be pushing the boundaries I think but would be an ambitious summer whilst staying in the rules You have added adidas to 22/23, adidas doesn’t start til the 24/25 season Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Colos Short and Curlies Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 Just now, nufcnick said: You have added adidas to 22/23, adidas doesn’t start til the 24/25 season I know the Adidas money kicks in next season, I've skipped the current season as the ask was what can we do in the summer. This starts at what we did in 2022/2023 (£60m loss for FFP) and then adjusted for what we know will change for 2024/2025 such as sponsorships and Europe. Basically I'm working on the assumption that we go pretty far in EL or CL next season and this plus the Adidas money equals our CL and Fun88 money from the current season so I can add it to the £60m loss Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Keegans Export Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 4 minutes ago, Colos Short and Curlies said: I'd say you can if you have the financial backing, enough scope to invest in the team and a strong recruitment model coupled with a good coach. You don't need to be breaking or even getting close to world record fees to have a team competing, you need a structure that identifies those not quite at that level but who will become 'world' class in a year or 2. You need to investment room to allow the players to grow into the team over a few years and not feel that you need to sell them. If the allowable losses were £180m rather than £105m I'd say we could both get a team that is right in the mix with the Sky 6 and can outpace at least 2 of them with the teams we have in place We could absolutely do a lot with £180m rather than £105m but however much we can spend, Chelsea, Man Utd etc can spend more. The difference is (and will remain) they have so much more margin for error than we do. Man Utd can waste not far off £200m on Sancho & Antony and just keep going. Chelsea can spend a billion quid, miss out on the Champions League two seasons in a row then spend the summer chasing Osimhen. We sink £50m into Tonali and we're screwed, unable to supplement a crippled squad. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Colos Short and Curlies Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 2 minutes ago, Keegans Export said: We could absolutely do a lot with £180m rather than £105m but however much we can spend, Chelsea, Man Utd etc can spend more. The difference is (and will remain) they have so much more margin for error than we do. Man Utd can waste not far off £200m on Sancho & Antony and just keep going. Chelsea can spend a billion quid, miss out on the Champions League two seasons in a row then spend the summer chasing Osimhen. We sink £50m into Tonali and we're screwed, unable to supplement a crippled squad. Hence the need of a good team, you are 100% right we cannot afford too many missteps on the way. That's the real difference between the top 4/6 and the rest, they can swallow mistakes easily. I still maintain that you can get as good a team for £200m as you can for £400m with the right structures around the club. It's harder to do, but possible Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
FloydianMag Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 1 hour ago, Colos Short and Curlies said: There's a whiff of a journalist being briefed in that story Agreed and the first hint of ‘legal battles’. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
timeEd32 Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 53 minutes ago, Colos Short and Curlies said: I'll stick to the current rules here, not the UEFA ones. And even then its hard to say. What we know is that a loss of £60m falls off the calcs and we will make a small profit this year so in simple terms you have what we did this year plus £60m in additional amortisation and wages (working on the basis that Adidas and EL/EC offsets Champions League). So you could spunk £200m in the summer if you wanted to. However, there is a longer term view that we have £60m drop off next year and the year after, but then a profit of £15m will drop off the year after and if you keep a £60m loss in 2024/2025 and 2025/2026 you are back to where we are this season, but with bigger revenues and wages no doubt. So they may go down the route of replacing a £60m loss with a £30m loss for the next 2 years to balance this out. Really depends on how aggressive they see revenue growth. Gun to the head we will spend £250m which will would add £50m of amortisation and £30m-£50m of wages. Taking last year as a starting point £60m FFP loss in 2022/2023 + £50m increased revenue (Sela, Adidas, Europe) - £50m amortisation on new purchases (I'm going to assume that the increase from last summer is evened out with previous windows signings dropping off) - £50m new wages (this is high but not totally unrealistic over a 2 year period) = £110m FFP loss So we would need to sell £50m profit worth of players. Likely to be Miggy, Wilson, Targett (or we keep Targett and don't follow up on Hall) and another. I don't think it would need to be a Bruno, Joe(s) or Isak That would be pushing the boundaries I think but would be an ambitious summer whilst staying in the rules I don't think there's any way we'll spend that much. Our wages + amortisation costs are already £255m (using Swiss Ramble's rough 90% estimate for how much players/staff contribute to the wage number). These are all very rough numbers and UEFA uses calendar years instead to make this exceptionally complicated, but that amount on £320m in revenue gets us just below the 80% mark that UEFA will apply for 2024/25. I've posted before about optimism for the next few transfer windows based on the current PL PSR regulations, but UEFA's cost control metric and similar coming to the PL is definitely more difficult for us. That said, there are a number of angles here. The PL % may be higher and may also get phased in over a couple years. Plus, the UEFA penalty for a first time offense under 10% is 10-25% of the overage so we could push things to 89% (£285m on £320m revenue) and then pay a penalty of at most £7.5m. Increasing revenue really is the key and we have work to do just to get back to ~£320m in 2024/25. Ashworth could help and a training ground/shirt sponsor this summer would be huge. Looking at this again recently I can see why there will definitely be player sales. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Colos Short and Curlies Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 10 minutes ago, timeEd32 said: I don't think there's any way we'll spend that much. Our wages + amortisation costs are already £255m (using Swiss Ramble's rough 90% estimate for how much players/staff contribute to the wage number). These are all very rough numbers and UEFA uses calendar years instead to make this exceptionally complicated, but that amount on £320m in revenue gets us just below the 80% mark that UEFA will apply for 2024/25. I've posted before about optimism for the next few transfer windows based on the current PL PSR regulations, but UEFA's cost control metric and similar coming to the PL is definitely more difficult for us. That said, there are a number of angles here. The PL % may be higher and may also get phased in over a couple years. Plus, the UEFA penalty for a first time offense under 10% is 10-25% of the overage so we could push things to 89% (£285m on £320m revenue) and then pay a penalty of at most £7.5m. Increasing revenue really is the key and we have work to do just to get back to ~£320m in 2024/25. Ashworth could help and a training ground/shirt sponsor this summer would be huge. Looking at this again recently I can see why there will definitely be player sales. And that's why I stuck to using the current rules as a model. I don't think the first year or 2 will be that different, there will need to be a phased approach considering when in the season they have said things will change. I agree on sales, minimum of £50m but we will have a bit of muscle to flex in the summer, certainly enough to bring in a striker, right winger, centre back and keeper. The calibre in each position will depend on the Hall situation Minteh I think will be in the squad and of course Tonali comes in like a new signing. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
TRon Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 47 minutes ago, Colos Short and Curlies said: Hence the need of a good team, you are 100% right we cannot afford too many missteps on the way. That's the real difference between the top 4/6 and the rest, they can swallow mistakes easily. I still maintain that you can get as good a team for £200m as you can for £400m with the right structures around the club. It's harder to do, but possible Everyone is trying to recruit the best team, we've already seen that the cartel clubs can lever the highest rated ones from the clubs with the richest owners. The only way we can really break into the elite band is to spend what they do, preferably more. All these new rules and amendments are designed specifically to stop anyone doing that. I suppose it might just be a coincidence that these rules are being rushed through after the PIF buyout of Newcastle, but it certainly suits the cartel. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackie Broon Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 1 hour ago, Keegans Export said: The argument about the allowable losses going up with "football inflation" is a fair one, but its still the same system in principle. Clubs like ourselves and Villa with the ambition and financial backing still won't be able to spend enough to catch up with the established clubs. We have more potential to do that than the likes of Villa because our owners have the resources to be able to increase our income in a way rich individuals can't (provided that don't leave an email trail à la Man City). If we keep increasing revenue at the rate we have been we'll be within the top six in terms of revenue by 26/27. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
mighty__mag Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 (edited) Stadium move is imperative to grow the club, renaming and branding will be huge, its obviously on the cards hence the surveys we all got, it will happen. Man City set the blue print and we'll mimic it with some of our own tweaks. This would all be the long term ambition,but nobody ever said it would all happen quickly, the champions league qualifying has amplified everything in a premature expectation, I see us slowly building, as we gear towards that long term goal. 1 hour ago, timeEd32 said: Increasing revenue really is the key and we have work to do just to get back to ~£320m in 2024/25. Ashworth could help and a training ground/shirt sponsor this summer would be huge. Looking at this again recently I can see why there will definitely be player sales. Edited March 6 by mighty__mag Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
FloydianMag Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 Mark Douglas………City and us, possible legal battles Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Optimistic Nut Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 4 hours ago, Paully said: https://www.mirror.co.uk/sport/football/news/premier-league-rivals-blocking-saudi-32284487 Good stuff by Simon Bird, that. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Keegans Export Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 18 minutes ago, FloydianMag said: Mark Douglas………City and us, possible legal battles Quote i understands there will be no legal challenge from Newcastle, although they will be watching City’s potential case with interest. The key paragraph (as far as NUFC is concerned). Having said that I've got nothing against City fighting that battle for us as long as they win... Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
FloydianMag Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 4 minutes ago, Keegans Export said: The key paragraph (as far as NUFC is concerned). Having said that I've got nothing against City fighting that battle for us as long as they win... It only needs one club…….if it’s City so be it, the important point is likely legal action could be coming. I’d also add it’s highly likely that that there’ll have been some lengthy discussions with the City board on how to take it forward. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
et tu brute Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 I am pretty sure that the media will not have a clue IF the club is contemplating legal action. The Saudis are very good at keeping things at arms length. We will only hear the same things about being frustrated, but emphasis on running the club within the rules. I also think they're doing similar with St James' also, keeping the line that it's their preference to stay at the same location. Going to be an interesting to see if my thinking on what is happening behind the scenes is correct. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jack27 Posted March 7 Share Posted March 7 https://x.com/chroniclenufc/status/1765696609403166904?s=46&t=qch8y64njTIa-YpWt4BfqA Eddie’s multi club mags, coming soon Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Abacus Posted March 7 Share Posted March 7 20 hours ago, FloydianMag said: Agreed and the first hint of ‘legal battles’. I enjoyed the way competition and protectionism were thrown in liberally. You've been saying for a long while a legal challenge on competition grounds is the only way. Let's see, maybe even the threat of it is enough. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheBrownBottle Posted March 7 Share Posted March 7 21 hours ago, Colos Short and Curlies said: I'll stick to the current rules here, not the UEFA ones. And even then its hard to say. What we know is that a loss of £60m falls off the calcs and we will make a small profit this year so in simple terms you have what we did this year plus £60m in additional amortisation and wages (working on the basis that Adidas and EL/EC offsets Champions League). So you could spunk £200m in the summer if you wanted to. However, there is a longer term view that we have £60m drop off next year and the year after, but then a profit of £15m will drop off the year after and if you keep a £60m loss in 2024/2025 and 2025/2026 you are back to where we are this season, but with bigger revenues and wages no doubt. So they may go down the route of replacing a £60m loss with a £30m loss for the next 2 years to balance this out. Really depends on how aggressive they see revenue growth. Gun to the head we will spend £250m which will would add £50m of amortisation and £30m-£50m of wages. Taking last year as a starting point £60m FFP loss in 2022/2023 + £50m increased revenue (Sela, Adidas, Europe) - £50m amortisation on new purchases (I'm going to assume that the increase from last summer is evened out with previous windows signings dropping off) - £50m new wages (this is high but not totally unrealistic over a 2 year period) = £110m FFP loss So we would need to sell £50m profit worth of players. Likely to be Miggy, Wilson, Targett (or we keep Targett and don't follow up on Hall) and another. I don't think it would need to be a Bruno, Joe(s) or Isak That would be pushing the boundaries I think but would be an ambitious summer whilst staying in the rules 20 hours ago, Colos Short and Curlies said: I know the Adidas money kicks in next season, I've skipped the current season as the ask was what can we do in the summer. This starts at what we did in 2022/2023 (£60m loss for FFP) and then adjusted for what we know will change for 2024/2025 such as sponsorships and Europe. Basically I'm working on the assumption that we go pretty far in EL or CL next season and this plus the Adidas money equals our CL and Fun88 money from the current season so I can add it to the £60m loss We don’t look like qualifying for the CL or EL let alone ‘going far’ in it. From memory, player amortisation will be well above £100m even before new transfers come onboard. Wages are currently around £200m. Our income will be around £300m. I’m not seeing how you’re getting close to £250m in transfers, I have to be honest. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
r0cafella Posted March 7 Share Posted March 7 19 minutes ago, Jack27 said: https://x.com/chroniclenufc/status/1765696609403166904?s=46&t=qch8y64njTIa-YpWt4BfqA Eddie’s multi club mags, coming soon We have been monitoring for 3 years like the good old days Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Irish Magpie Posted March 7 Share Posted March 7 17 hours ago, Optimistic Nut said: Good stuff by Simon Bird, that. Shit! Does that mean we have to re-evaluate his status as a cunt? Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now