Eddie Howe

[Yorkie]

Enjoyed that, @Pilko!

 

The matter of, by and large most games, being decided on fine margins is such a key point. We've just got to get back to scoring more (genius thought I know).

[r0cafella]

Just now, Yorkie said:

Enjoyed that, @Pilko!

 

The matter of, by and large most games, being decided on fine margins is such a key point. We've just got to get back to scoring more (genius thought I know).

Pilkos post was great definitely can't knock it. What I would say is we've witnessed a whole lot of dour performances particularly away from home and it needs addressing. 

 

It's also massively worrying the identity we had is witnessed pretty sparingly nowadays. 

[SUPERTOON]

On reflection, personally feel the lack of leadership and direction off the pitch for the last couple of years has led to what we are seeing on the pitch now. 

[Coffee_Johnny]

I’m not quoting your post @Pilko but fair play man. Loughborough would give you a doctorate for that! 

[r0cafella]

Just now, SUPERTOON said:

On reflection, personally feel the lack of leadership and direction off the pitch for the last couple of years has led to what we are seeing on the pitch now. 

Really? I think it's massively overstated personally. I mean what exactly would you pinpoint about it which would have caused us to play dogshit football?

[SUPERTOON]

5 minutes ago, r0cafella said:

Really? I think it's massively overstated personally. I mean what exactly would you pinpoint about it which would have caused us to play dogshit football?

A proper structure in place, someone who sets the whole ethos of the club that can be continued regardless of who the manager is. For me the summer window gone doesn’t happen if we had that in place.

[r0cafella]

Just now, SUPERTOON said:

A proper structure in place, someone who sets the whole ethos of the club that can be continued regardless of who the manager is. For me the summer window gone doesn’t happen if we had that in place.

But that was never possible, and this isn't a knock on Eddie either. We port the cart before the horse so we get to live with the dysfunction. Ultimately what Eddie has achieved makes it worth it right ? But obviously the downsides of what we have don't just go away if we bury our heads. 

 

The bigger concern for me is the state of the academy, believing Eddie will make it all right actually has some historical basis but the academy? Fucking hell. 

[bobbydazzla]

6 hours ago, Pilko said:

Get a cup of tea for this one if you can be arsed, this is a HTT-style length of the Magna Carta special.

 

I've tried to come up with a scoring system for every game since the cup final to make a bit more sense of things. Before going through this exercise I'd say i'm somewhere in the middle somewhere of the two main camps, the positive camp (Eddie will sort it, great history of getting back on track after a rocky period, still only a few league wins off Europe & still in all three cups) and the negative camp (games since cup final largely been a chore to watch, too much late goal leakage, poor use of summer funds, seems bereft of ideas).

 

Where I've got to is that I think it's the nature of either the performances or the manner in which the result has arrived rather than the results on their own that has quite a lot of people, to varying degrees, asking questions about where we go from here (with or without the manager depending on viewpoint). I've included scoring or conceding late as I think that has a pretty large bearing on how you feel about a result if it's been snatched away late or gained something right at the death.

 

The system I've settled on is as follows. There are many holes in this & it won't be perfect.

 

0 points for a loss

1 point for a draw

2 points for a win

 

-1 point for poor performance 

-1 point for conceding a late (85'+) goal that altered the end outcome 

-1 point for a loss with a 2+ goal margin 

0 points for OK/fine/meh performance - mixed bag or "did the job" type showing 

+1 point for good performance 

+1 point for scoring a late (85'+) goal that altered the end outcome

+1 point for a win with 2+ goal margin

 

So in theory you could have a max score per game of +5 and a minimum score of -3, meaning 1 is the mid point. The idea here is to offset unfortunate losses or draws with performance points to give a measure of how we're playing, but also give extra marks when we've really put sides to the sword. I've been fair as I can and there were 4 occasions when I really wavered between 0/+1 or 0/-1 for performance points and on all of those occasions I went with the extreme of the two. If I couldn't remember I referred to EH's remarks after the game for a steer.

 

This is obviously open to interpretation and others will have different viewpoints on the performance variable, but here goes:

 

(2024/25)

 

Brentford (h), 2-1 win: fairly close game, performance described by the manager as "not pretty" but ultimately did the job. 2 points

 

Leicester (a), 3-0 win: scored early, played well, pissed it. 4 points

 

Man U (h), 4-1 win: ran away with it second half, scored some really nice goals. 4 points

 

Palace (h), 5-0 win: took the piss first half, played very well. 4 points

 

Villa (a), 4-1 loss: hung in the game for 70 mins but ultimately crumbled badly second half. -2 points

 

Ipswich (h), 3-0 win: slightly edgy first half until scoring just before HT, ran away with it comfortably second half. 4 points

 

Brighton (a), 1-1 draw: disappointing performance but got a late penalty and ultimately salvaged a decent point on the road. 2 points

 

Chelsea (h), 2-0 win: scored early, decent first half, opposition red card, clung on somewhat second half before clinching late. 3 points

 

Arsenal (a), 1-0 loss: not a bad performance as we peppered Raya early but didn't look like scoring after going a goal down early second half. 0 points

 

Everton (h), 1-0 loss: poor performance, didn't look like scoring all day, rightly beaten. -1 point

 

(2025/26)

 

Villa (a), 0-0 draw: played well but toiled a bit against ten men late on and deserved to win, ultimately hamstrung by lack of striker. 2 points

 

Liverpool (h), 3-2 loss: played well first half, played unbelievably well second half with ten men, lost to late gut punch after scoring late leveller ourselves. 1 point

 

Leeds (a), 0-0 draw: defensively strong, created next to nothing, ultimately relied on opposition being equally goal shy. 1 point

 

Wolves (h), 1-0 win: nervy game and very much a "got the job done" performance. 2 points

 

Barcelona (h), lost 2-1: ultimately we were good, but just undone by a side with far superior quality in a few moments. 1 point

 

Bournemouth (a), drew 0-0: similar to Leeds in that we were very decent at the back but a non-event going forwards. Very useful point on the road. 1 point

 

Bradford (h), won 4-1: lower league opposition put to the sword well with a changed team. 4 points

 

Arsenal (h), lost 2-1: took the lead, did not play particularly well and conceded two late, massive kick in the balls. -2 points

 

USG (a), won 4-0: never really in doubt, sub-standard opposition but played very well and took them apart ruthlessly. 4 points

 

Forest (h), won 2-0: ran into opponents in disarray but put them away with an efficient, effective showing. 3 points

 

Brighton (a), lost 2-1: manager assessed this one as a poor first half, much better in second half and dragged ourselves back into it, but we then threw it away with a shit goal late on. -1 point

 

Benfica (h), won 3-0: very good performance, racked up loads of shots on target and corners, ran away with it. 4 points

 

Fulham (h), won 2-1: another "got the job done" mixed bag of a performance but with the distinction of a last gasp winner from Bruno. 3 points

 

Spurs (h), won 2-0: more of an even game than the score suggests but ultimately did enough and didn't look troubled after the second goal. 3 points

 

West Ham (a), lost 3-1: faced opponents on long bad run, scored early and absolutely capitulated. Unable to fashion a single proper chance having gone 2-1 down on stroke of HT. -2 points

 

Bilbao (h), won 2-0: Good response to the previous game, scored early and never looked troubled after that. 4 points

 

Man City (h), won 2-1: A very good gutsy performance and deservedly won. 3 points

 

Marseille (a), lost 2-1: scored early, played well first half, ridiculous goalkeeping error and shit the bed early second half. Rallied a bit but couldn't level the game. 0 points

 

Everton (a), 4-1 win: scored early, pressed home the advantage and never looked in danger after second goal. Good performance all round. 4 points

 

Spurs (h), 2-2 draw: mixed bag of a performance including a late leveller and conceding a late leveller. 1 point

 

Burnley (h), 2-1 win: good first half, very disappointing second half against ten men, conceded late pen and then almost threw it away at the death. 2 points

 

Leverkusen (a), 2-2 draw: mixed bag performance, ultimately did well to overcome early deficit and drag ourselves into the game but conceded late to bin two points. 0 points

 

Sunderland (a), 1-0 loss: a fucking disgrace from start to finish, nuff said already by us all. -1 point

 

So, some numbers now I've gone through that exercise. 1 is the middling score, if you like, on the scale.

 

Since the cup final average: 1.72

Back end of last season average: 2.00

This season average: 1.61

Last ten games average: 1.40

All league games average: 1.48

This season league games average: 1.13

This season cup & Europe average: 2.50

All home games average: 2.37

All away games average: 0.86 (!)

 

What I'm taking from this is:

 

"We've been shit since the cup final" is a bit of a myth. We actually did class for the next 8 games other than a single blotting of the copy book away at Villa. The final two games of the season where we were quite poor and got bad results have maybe stained this narrative somewhat. This season has definitely seen a downturn in results and performances although there are some good showings and good results littered throughout 2025 (often not in the same games either).

 

Away form since the cup final is a massive, massive problem (duh: we all know this). We're class at home (still only lost to Everton, Arsenal, Liverpool and Barca in our last 19 home games). It does help we've had 19 at home vs 14 away over this sample when that's the pattern you're in but I can't hold that against us when they're not full season samples and our domestic cup draws are 2 and 0 in favour of home ties.

 

Based on this admittedly creaky scoring system, it is getting worse if you compare overall average, end of last season average, this season average and last 10 games average. There's a clear downturn in results and performances both this season and in the most recent run of games. The margins are pretty tight in most games still, which helps towards a view that it can be fixed or we simply get a bit of luck that we need sooner rather than later.

 

There's a firm possibility that the team raises itself or expends more energy in cup games. We don't know if that's driven by the manager or not, who always plays a straight bat when asked about prioritising cup games or league games with "the next game is the most important". There's a chance you could just attribute this to Europe too as we've only played two domestic cup games in this time and one was a stroll against lower division opposition. Our post midweek cup/Europe game results are a "not as bad as I expected but still not amazing" W3, D1, L4.

 

We still aren't losing many games by more than a single goal, especially if you allow West Ham and Brentford last gasp goals as us chasing the game and leaving space. Villa was the only true "out of it before stoppage time" drubbing we've taken in 33 games. We're pretty much always in every game we play and the margins are often tight, and have swung the way against us more than they have swung for us in the more even games or games we've done well in but not won. On the other side we've administered plenty more of 2+ goal wins ourselves (12 wins against 3 losses).

 

We've only scored four late goals ourselves that altered the outcome and we ended up then conceding an even later one on two of those four occasions. Only Bruno's at home to Fulham was a late winner. There's a possibility that the team are tired and not coping well with the increase in games, from both a mental and physical standpoint. We're told we get next to no training time with the schedule, which fits with this theory. But we can't just accept that we're going to piss away late points all the time, the manager needs to find a solution for it and quickly. It'll always happen from time to time but it's beyond a joke lately.

 

So where has that left my thinking?

 

It's left me probably reassessing my view slightly more in favour of it not being as bad as it feels. Margins tight, still running over plenty of sides at home, been missing key players for a lot of this season. I think the summer has played a huge part in the bad feeling with what felt like three months of knock backs and only Thiaw firmly asserting himself as a strong addition so far, the others being ranked (so far) from somewhere inbetween "promising work in progress" to "absolutely dog shit". The late goals and away form also mean that a good proportion of our games leave you with a feeling of frustration (even if the end result is actually OK) or that they were a chore to watch overall. That and a thankfully poor, tight Premier League this year is probably pointing to the fact that things aren't as fucked as I can sometimes lead myself to believe.

 

And of course, sticking to my scale, the result on Sunday goes down as -1 point but given the depth the performance plumbed and the emotional nature of the derby it's definitely having a bigger weigh-down on feeling than my sketchy system suggests on me, and others. I'd give it -10 if I was going to let myself

 

If anyone is arsed or has read this far (well done) I'll come back to this in another handful of games (maybe next 10?) and re-assess what the numbers look like.

 

Bonus points to the first "TL;DR" reply, btw. Oh, and of course other opinions are both available and welcomed.

 

 

Can we call your excellent scoring system xPilko, or xP for short ?

 

 

 

[AyeDubbleYoo]

I said yesterday, it's the nature of the goals we're conceding that has made the recent run feel really bad. If you look at the results since Man City win they are fine (bar Sunderland obvs)  and could easily have been really good if those fine margins hadn't gone against us.

 

Of course we're not playing well and that needs to improve, but also our confidence must be really knocked by the way we've let those extra points slip through our fingers. 

 

Lots of work to do but I don't think it's a crisis overall. 

[Shays Given Tim Flowers]

1 hour ago, Yorkie said:

Enjoyed that, @Pilko!

 

The matter of, by and large most games, being decided on fine margins is such a key point. We've just got to get back to scoring more (genius thought I know).

Just for my understanding would you also advocate us winning more games? 

[Kid Icarus]

21 hours ago, Decky said:

 

They look a much better outfit than us this season and are on course for top 5 again, hardly that controversial a thing to say is it? I think if they can do it, and given what we've spent in recent years, it's where we should be too, not sitting in the bottom half unable to win any of our away games. 

 

 

 

 

 

Not singling you out Decky because I’ve seen them brought up loads, but I think Villa sort of exemplify the grass-is-always-greener outlook that’s going on with a lot of people at the moment.

 

The way people post about them, you’d think Villa’s rise had been smooth and linear under Emery with moments where they've missed out due to bad luck,  with our rise being streaky and clunky and with moments of luck, but we’re actually very similar. The only big difference is that we’ve spent more, but when you get to the core of players section you’ll see why.

 

I dunno where this idea that Villa managed their CL season better than us comes from either. I remember what they were like last season and their league form was pretty poor for a lot of it.

 

They were 3 points better off than us by this time last season, 1 point worse off than when we were last in the CL.

 

Nothing really to write home about and it took them bringing in 5 players to rally themselves into a run right at the end of the season. 

Probably gone into a bit too much detail here to make a quick and easy point, but I think the more you look into it, the more similarities you see. Basically, I imagine that there'll have been Villa versions of posters humming and harring in February about how much better Newcastle and Howe are doing than them, when they were hovering around 8th, 9th, and 10th and we were hovering around 4th, 5th, and 6th.

 

In Howe and Emery's time at Newcastle and Villa:

 

Silverware:

• Us: 1
• Villa: 0

 

Champions League qualification:

• Us: 2
• Villa: 1

 

Overall League position since each manager came in:

• Us: 4th
• Villa: 4th

 

Finishes:

• Us: 4th, 7th, 5th
• Villa: 4th, 6th

 

Head to head:

Us: 3

Villa: 2

Draw: 1

 

GF/GA under each manager:

 

Us: 1.79/1.29

Villa: 1.75/1.39

 

Points per game:

• Howe: 1.75
• Emery: 1.85

Points at this stage in CL seasons:

• Us:
  • 23/24: 26 – Finished 7th on 60 points – no incomings in Jan 24
  • 25/26: 22 - ?
• Villa: 
  • 24/25: 25 – Finished 6th on 66 points – 2 signings and 3 loans in Jan 25

 

Points at this point in non-CL seasons:

• Us: 
  • 22/23: 30 - Finished 4th on 71 points
  • 24/25: 23 - Finished 5th on 66 points
• Villa:
  • 23/24: 35 - Finished 4th on 68 points
  • 25/26: 33 - ?

Core of players who’ve managed the step up since Howe and Emery arrived:

• Us: Schar, Joelinton, Murphy
• Villa: Martinez, Cash, Konsa, Mings, Kamara, McGinn, Buendia, Watkins

 

Players in under each manager:

• Us: 22 since November 2021
• Villa: 21, plus 5 loans since November 2022

 

Bad/mixed form:

 

 

• Us:
  • 
     
  • 
     
  • 

 

 

• Villa:
  • 
     
  • 

 

Good form:

• Us:
  • 
     
  • 
     
  • 
     
  • 

 

 

• Villa:
  • 
     
  • 
     
  • 

 

 

 

 

Edited December 16, 2025 by Kid Icarus

[AyeDubbleYoo]

Great post, really winds me up how much people are jealous of Villa

[El Prontonise]

Howe has said he disagrees with Bruno's comments.

[r0cafella]

3 minutes ago, El Prontonise said:

Howe has said he disagrees with Bruno's comments.

I'm sure his answer was nuanced, at least I hope so

[nufcjmc]

2 minutes ago, r0cafella said:

I'm sure his answer was nuanced, at least I hope so

Not seen it think the quote doing the rounds is he agreed with most of it but disagreed we were a mess 

[Whitley mag]

1 minute ago, nufcjmc said:

Not seen it think the quote doing the rounds is he agreed with most of it but disagreed we were a mess 

I’m sure he would disagree with that part.

[AyeDubbleYoo]

He can't exactly agree we were a mess

[Maggies]

The whole interview was waffle. Even blamed our lack of intensity on injuries to Botman, Burn, Lascelles and Joelinton…

 

Howe has proven me wrong many times before, so fingers crossed we win tomorrow and have a cup semi final to look forward to.

[et tu brute]

8 minutes ago, El Prontonise said:

Howe has said he disagrees with Bruno's comments.

The bloke is a total coward like he was on Sunday. Trying to say it was the same set up on Sunday as Everton - embarrassing. Don't fucking insult the fans and treat them like they're stupid. The absolute shit show of journalists attending letting him get away with it also. 

[AyeDubbleYoo]

Just now, Maggies said:

The whole interview was waffle.

 

Yes, it's a football press conference. 

[The College Dropout]

1 hour ago, r0cafella said:

Really? I think it's massively overstated personally. I mean what exactly would you pinpoint about it which would have caused us to play dogshit football?

Bad atmosphere in the club and an average squad

[Kid Icarus]

3 minutes ago, et tu brute said:

The bloke is a total coward like he was on Sunday. Trying to say it was the same set up on Sunday as Everton - embarrassing. Don't fucking insult the fans and treat them like they're stupid. The absolute shit show of journalists attending letting him get away with it also. 

Eddie Howe is a coward? Get fucked man.

[Whitley mag]

I actually agree we weren’t a mess in the sense of players were playing to orders and holding their position. However, in terms of attacking patterns of play and starting positions of wide men we were undoubtedly a mess.

 

 

[et tu brute]

2 minutes ago, Kid Icarus said:

Eddie Howe is a coward? Get fucked man.

Aye he is, fucking shit himself on Sunday and trying to pull the wool by making excuses over the most cowardly Derby performance in living memory. You stick to your lies and bullshit about Mitchell walking away why don't you 

 

 

Edited December 16, 2025 by et tu brute

[Kid Icarus]

Just now, et tu brute said:

Aye he is fucking shit himself on Sunday and trying to pull the wool by making excuses over the most cowardly Derby performance in living memory. You stick to your lies and bullshit about Mitchell walking away why don't you 

 

I'd say stick to embarrassing yourself in the Sunderland thread but it's obviously already too late for that.