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The Relegationometer™ (2023/24)


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13 minutes ago, Kid Icarus said:

Let's be honest, we should all be on 10. Having 1 win yet being 1 win away from getting out of the relegation zone is insane. The dross in the league is highly concentrated this year.

Yeah and we are the drossiest so whats the point.

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Fuck knows. It's depressing. But one win in 20 and we're still only 2 points off 17th. If the rest of the season continued as shit as this we could still conceivably be a fluke win away from safety on the last day. I'm going to say 8. Feels like the most stressful scenario now, keep having these 'must wins', not winning them, but still being in touching distance!

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29 minutes ago, RS said:

The inevitability of relegation is so depressing. Like watching  a train put its brakes on and knowing full well it won’t stop before it hits that truck on the crossing. 

 

 

 

It’s been coming since Rafa left. 

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57 minutes ago, nufc123 said:

If and ifs. Its just not Norwich. Its basically every game. So no i dont agree. There is a long way yes, but the wins is not going to come flying in. We look so terrible that this and that is not going to change. Sorry. 

 

It's all ifs, buts and maybes right now, we have no idea how our side us going to look in two weeks time, it certainly won't be any worse.

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1 minute ago, The Prophet said:

 

It's all ifs, buts and maybes right now, we have no idea how our side us going to look in two weeks time, it certainly won't be any worse.

Well yeah but i was asking for the reasons how this is going to change. Not having a go at you but im sick of reading get one CB in and we'll be fine. One victory and momentum will come. There is zero evidence this momentum is coming right around the corner. There is so much wrong with this squad that a little fix will fill the gaps.

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Home matches:

Burnley 0-0 (cup)

Southampton 2-2

Leeds 1-1

Brentford 3-3

Norwich 1-1

Cambridge 0-1 (cup)

Watford 1-1

 

Remaining home games:

Everton, Villa, Brighton, Palace, Wolves, Leicester, Liverpool, Arsenal.

 

Don't see us getting another 20 points now. Willock kept us up last season, we need another similar stroke of luck this time.

 

 

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1 minute ago, nufc123 said:

Well yeah but i was asking for the reasons how this is going to change. Not having a go at you but im sick of reading get one CB in and we'll be fine. One victory and momentum will come. There is zero evidence this momentum is coming right around the corner. There is so much wrong with this squad that a little fix will fill the gaps.

 

I think you'll be hard pushed to find anyone who thinks one CB will solve our problems.

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1 minute ago, Karjala said:

Home matches:

Burnley 0-0 (cup)

Southampton 2-2

Leeds 1-1

Brentford 3-3

Norwich 1-1

Cambridge 0-1 (cup)

Watford 1-1

 

Remaining home games:

Everton, Villa, Brighton, Palace, Wolves, Leicester, Liverpool, Arsenal.

 

Don't see us getting another 20 points now. Willock kept us up last season, we need another similar stroke of luck this time.

 

 

 

We also have the likes of Everton, Leeds, Burnley and Norwich away from home.

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New CBs, DM, CAM and maybe a winger. This is whats needed this transfer window. Then we might survive.

 

It would just be so Newcastle, finally got owners willing to invest and we need at least a year in the championship...fml

 

 

Edited by High Five o

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3 minutes ago, The Prophet said:

 

We also have the likes of Everton, Leeds, Burnley and Norwich away from home.

We are so losing to Leeds. May have a chance against the others if the midfield and defence getting a shake. Gap ut to Watford can be big next weekend.

 

 

Edited by nufc123

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I'm still not a 10.

 

Whilst we are still in touching distance and have some window left to better the team we have a chance.

 

But that's only if we do some business. Because I don't think, nah, I know this current team doesn't have the mentality to keep us up.

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The thing is this team was a Championship squad the day it was assembled, it won the Championship by the skin of it’s teeth 5 years ago.


We can pin point problems in specific areas but the reality of the situation is that no one is good enough. Our goalkeeper who has been immense is massively on the decline. Our back line is average Championship standard. Our midfield is average Championship standard with ASM being an outlier, but even then he’s not really a team player. You could argue that he doesn’t have a team around him to use, but he doesn’t think make passes when he’s in a situation where you know even he is going to lose the ball.

 

Wilson is a good forward for us, however he is injury prone and that is the reason why he’s at us an nowhere else. He simply cannot be relied upon.

 

As for the new signings, Trippier is obviously class, but one man doesn’t make a team. Wood is decent stop gap solution, but he can’t do much when he’s getting fuck all from the rest of the squad.

 

Long story short is that this team should have been relegated years ago. 2 seasons under Rafa lifted them to a position their ability is nowhere near, and Bruce got massively lucky with COVID impacting both his seasons and us getting that boost each time to stay up.

This season was always going to be a relegation fight. We can sit here and say that 2 CB’s, 1 or 2 CM’s and a LB would keep us up. I’m not so sure. Every place in the squad needs a replacement, and then also a back up replacement. We honestly need a whole new 25 man squad, or at least 18-20 if you are being generous.

 

Our only hope is that we somehow keep within each of safety and as the January transfer window rolls on both our club is keen to buy, and selling clubs are less reluctant to sell and that we are able to get just enough in to see us through. Even then in the summer regardless of staying up or going down, we need to basically gut the playing squad.

Right now, I honestly do not think this squad would have the bottle to finish in even the play off places in the Championship. Lately though when if we do go down, we simply cannot buy another Championship team, we need to buy a Premier League team, otherwise sooner or later we will be in the same position.

 

 

Edited by Stifler

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1 minute ago, The Prophet said:

I don't know how anyone can be apathetic like, relegation or no relegation the future is brighter than its been in years.

I know you are right and I'll agree in a few days but right now, it just feels very bleak.

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1 minute ago, Karjala said:

We have the worst away record in the league. 3pts from 9 games.

 

Aye you're absolutely right, we're not going to pick up any more points away from home this season. It's impossible based on our performance to date.

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5 minutes ago, The Prophet said:

I don't know how anyone can be apathetic like, relegation or no relegation the future is brighter than its been in years.

Well 15 days into the transfer window and its basically status quo. Our central line will not keep us up. Dubravka, Lascelles, all central mids, and Wood is nowhere near the level needed.

 

Please prove me wrong for once NUFC.

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Went into Watford with little hope for a win. Will go into Leeds with none and see how it goes but can only really see a draw at best.

Were not finishing above anybody other than Burnley and Norwich unless some serious business gets done quickly and that's the only hope alas we fetched up with Wood so is it hope at all?

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It's really hard to pick a number. We are terrible and don't look like winning enough games, but you could say the same for Norwich, Burnley and Watford. Honestly couldn't predict who'll stay up out of us 4. I think you could probably finish 17th with points in the low 30s or maybe high 20s, a few good signings could change everything.

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8 and "no", but only because of the depth of our owners pockets. No-one as wealthy as them has ever been in this position before. The kind of recruitment never seen before could save us.

 

With the current squad, it is 10, and would be 10 even if Wood settles in and starts producing. The frightening one is the extent to which we went to pieces after scoring.

 

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