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Optimistic Nut

Optimistic Nut

Posted
Posted
Just now, Kid Icarus said:

Potter's stock ended the moment he joined Chelsea. Everything about it seemed like he just wanted the payday because other than for that reason it was such a stupid career move.

 

Ah think that's a bit harsh. He literally started at the bottom over in Sweden and had a pretty average playing career, would never begrudge him fancying himself at a huge club. 

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Kid Icarus

Kid Icarus

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Optimistic Nut said:

 

Ah think that's a bit harsh. He literally started at the bottom over in Sweden and had a pretty average playing career, would never begrudge him fancying himself at a huge club. 

Chelsea were a known entity as being beyond a basketcase at the time though. It was when Boehly was in full Football Manager mode and buying everyone going without any regard for cohesion or IIRC even using a DoF. Potter was mental going into that thinking he was going to be successful imo (beyond the financial rewards) and I think any manager would have been. 

 

The stock he earned in Sweden and Brighton was thrown away and has never really recovered. Don't blame him for going for the money, but I really hope that's why he went because if he went there thinking he was going to be successful then he's mental. :lol:

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leffe186

leffe186

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Kaizero said:

Small sidenote to the B/G discussion and the myth that they "only do well" because they play on astroturf above the artic circle, here's their full home/away record in European competition since their "return" to them for the 20/21 season:

 

Home: 29 – 3 – 5┊107 – 30┊+77 GD

Away: 8 – 11 – 17┊45 – 57┊-12 GD

 

Total: 37 – 14 – 22┊152 – 87┊+65 GD

 

7 of 17 away defeats were by 2 goals or more, meaning 10 out of 17 were lost by 1 goal. Only 2 matches were lost by more than 2 goals, 0-3 against Arsenal in the 22/23 EL group stage and 0-4 against Roma in the  21/22 ECL QF.

 

Yes, of course B/G gets some advantage from being used to their astroturf and their local climate – but how"large" of an advantage they're getting, when compared to the general "advantage" all home sides have due to simply being more familiar with their home ground than the opponents, could be discussed to death in and of itself – also, shouldn't truly "big" European teams be professional enough to do their job on any turf in any weather if their team truly was much more talented than their opponent?

 


Oof. I dunno mate, they’re a really good side but those figures you quote suggest to me they actually do have a huge relative advantage at home compared to other teams. Which, y’know, seems not to need a discussion to death.

 

They’ve won 8 away European matches from 20/21 according to those figures. The teams they beat were Valur, Celtic, Bohemians 1905, Pyunik, Besitkas, RFS, Jagiellonia Bialystok and Braga, Couple of good teams, three teams I have never heard of. In that span at home they’ve scored 5 goals three times, 6 goals twice (including against Roma) and 8 goals once. The three knockout rounds they just played involved beating Twente 5-2, Olympiakos 3-0 and Lazio 2-0 at home, while losing every one of the away legs.

 

They’re really good and brilliantly run and managed, but home matches on Astro in the Arctic Circle are clearly a massive help.

 

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Kaizero

Kaizero

Posted
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Erikse said:

Pretty sure that home and away stat isn't normal, though? Lets look at it in points terms: 90p from 37 at home (2,45 per game). 35p from 36 away (0,97 per game). I know home games are allways easier in Europe, but this is basically the difference between comfortably winning the league and barely avoiding relegation if it was league form. Not exactly a like for like analogy, but the point is, the difference seems abnormaly high. So if anything that reinforces the idea that their home advantage is huge. Doesn't mean that what they are doing isn't highly impressive, and noone was saying that it's all about the home advantage anyways.

28 minutes ago, leffe186 said:

Oof. I dunno mate, they’re a really good side but those figures you quote suggest to me they actually do have a huge relative advantage at home compared to other teams. Which, y’know, seems not to need a discussion to death.

 

They’ve won 8 away European matches from 20/21 according to those figures. The teams they beat were Valur, Celtic, Bohemians 1905, Pyunik, Besitkas, RFS, Jagiellonia Bialystok and Braga, Couple of good teams, three teams I have never heard of. In that span at home they’ve scored 5 goals three times, 6 goals twice (including against Roma) and 8 goals once. The three knockout rounds they just played involved beating Twente 5-2, Olympiakos 3-0 and Lazio 2-0 at home, while losing every one of the away legs.

 

They’re really good and brilliantly run and managed, but home matches on Astro in the Arctic Circle are clearly a massive help.

 

Spurs in the same period:

16-4-1 –– PPG 2.47

8-4-9 –– PPG 1.33

 

Man Utd in the same period:

15-6-5 –– PPG 1.96
11-8-7 –– PPG 1.57


Athletic Bilbao in the same period:

6-0-0 –– PPG 3.00
2-2-2 –– PPG 1.33

 

My point was never that they've not performed worse away from home than they do at home, but out of the 4 EL semi-finalists, they've got the 3rd worst average home record (behind Spurs and Bilbao, ahead of Man Utd). It feels like the general opinion is "don't get trashed in Bodø and you'll beat them at home", which isn't the truth at all. On the whole, they've got more Win/Draws away from home than they do defeats (19 – 17), and even then, very few defeats are by more than a single goal and almost none are by more than two. Just feel like everybody's trying their best to write them off as a football team that's not really good enough to be where they're currently at, and that they're only there because of some magical fluke arctic circle weather shenanigans and astroturf black magic whimsy :dontknow: 

 

"Home matches on Astro in the Arctic Circle are clearly a massive help. (B/G @ Home PPG 2.45)" ≌ "Home matches on Grass in North London are clearly a massive help. (Spurs @ Home PPG 2.47)"

 

 

Edited by Kaizero

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Erikse

Erikse

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, Kaizero said:

 

Spurs in the same period:

16-4-1 –– PPG 2.47

8-4-9 –– PPG 1.33

 

Man Utd in the same period:

15-6-5 –– PPG 1.96
11-8-7 –– PPG 1.57


Athletic Bilbao in the same period:

6-0-0 –– PPG 3.00
2-2-2 –– PPG 1.33

 

My point was never that they've not performed worse away from home than they do at home, but out of the 4 EL semi-finalists, they've got the 3rd worst average home record (behind Spurs and Bilbao, ahead of Man Utd). It feels like the general opinion is "don't get trashed in Bodø and you'll beat them at home", which isn't the truth at all. On the whole, they've got more Win/Draws away from home than they do defeats (19 – 17), and even then, very few defeats are by more than a single goal and almost none are by more than two. Just feel like everybody's trying their best to write them off as a football team that's not really good enough to be where they're currently at, and that they're only there because of some magical fluke arctic circle weather shenanigans and astroturf black magic whimsy :dontknow: 

 

"Home matches on Astro in the Arctic Circle are clearly a massive help. (B/G @ Home PPG 2.45)" ≌ "Home matches on Grass in North London are clearly a massive help. (Spurs @ Home PPG 2.47)"

 

 

 

 

Well, the only way to look at it is to compare the ratio between home games and away games. Lets go by points again.

 

Glimt: 2,45/0,97 = 2,53

Spurs: 2,47/1,33 = 1,86

Man Utd: 1,96/1,57 = 1,25

Athletic: 3/1,33 = 2,26

 

The only team remotely close to Bodøs home vs away ratio is Athletic, and their ratio can't be taken seriously as the sample size is too small. It's not like their home form would be 3 points per game if they had played the same amount of games as Bodø Glimt.

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Kaizero

Kaizero

Posted
Posted (edited)
11 minutes ago, Erikse said:

 

Well, the only way to look at it is to compare the ratio between home games and away games. Lets go by points again.

 

Glimt: 2,45/0,97 = 2,53

Spurs: 2,47/1,33 = 1,86

Man Utd: 1,96/1,57 = 1,25

Athletic: 3/1,33 = 2,26

 

The only team remotely close to Bodøs home vs away ratio is Athletic, and their ratio can't be taken seriously as the sample size is too small. It's not like their home form would be 3 points per game if they had played the same amount of games as Bodø Glimt.

 

AB: 2.16 – 125.56% better PPG at home.

TH: 1.90 – 85.71% better PPG at home.
MU: 1.76 – 24.84% better PPG at home.

B/G: 1.71 – 152.58% better PPG at home.

 

Just to do it correctly.

 

 

Edited by Kaizero

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