The Europeometer™ (2023/24)

[AyeDubbleYoo]

1 minute ago, GWN said:

 

im sick of falling short , I wanna succeed.

 

When's the last time we fell short?  

 

We've been dire for pretty much all of living memory. 

[SUPERTOON]

Think I’m more nervous about it this season due to it being totally unexpected, and I think it’s going to be much harder to do next season.

[The Prophet]

While signings aren't a guarantee of success, you'd hope with more quality it'd be easier next season. Though if we're in Europe the extra games will of course be a factor and we'll have to plan accordingly. 

[SUPERTOON]

Just now, The Prophet said:

While signings aren't a guarantee of success, you'd hope with more quality it'd be easier next season. Though if we're in Europe the extra games will of course be a factor and we'll have to plan accordingly. 

I’m more thinking I’d expect Liverpool, Chelsea, Spurs and probably Villa being much tougher prospects next season.

[The Prophet]

7 minutes ago, AyeDubbleYoo said:

 

I don't really mind either, just trying to enjoy each match. 

 

This is it. I'll be a bag of nerves come Sunday, but it'll be a cup final-esque nerves rather than survival nerves. Beyond all expectations we're up in 4th competing for the Champions League. It's difficult not to enjoy it really. 

[Chicken Dancer]

1 minute ago, SUPERTOON said:

Think I’m more nervous about it this season due to it being totally unexpected, and I think it’s going to be much harder to do next season.

 

This is exactly it for me. Next season Spurs, Liverpool and Chelsea will all be improved you'd think, plus Villa will be competitive under Emery for sure.

 

It's a huge opportunity to skip a few chapters and fast-forward the 'project' if we get top 4 this season. Granted, I'd have snapped your hand off and probably rimmed Steve Bruce for ANY Europe this season, but the fact we have the chance to hear that sweet anthem at St James' next season is too much

 

I do think Liverpool will only drop points in one or maybe two games, but it won't be against Spurs. They'll win all their home games, I just pray they aren't a point or two behind us going into the final game when they have Southampton away. A shame there was an 8-goal swing in goal difference this weekend too. Could be big.

 

Maybe it's because of how good they have been under Klopp for the majority of his tenure, but I'm infinitely more worried about them than anyone else. 

[Paullow]

21 minutes ago, The Prophet said:

Our season reflects Arsenal's in many ways, but with different prizes at stake. Both sides have punched well above their weight and exceeded expectations. Given their destiny is in their own hands there would be some disappointment if they didn't finish the job, but bigger picture, it will still be a brilliant season if they just fall short. 

Yeah, I've been thinking similar. Start of the season we'd have probably been expected to finish 7th to 9th (competing with West Ham, Leicester, and possibly Brighton) - bookies had us as 7th faves for most things (league, top 4, top 6, best of the rest etc.), but then there probably would have been a lot of covering their backs / anticipated money to shorten those odds. 

 

Arsenal were 5th / 6th faves along with Spurs, so both have done brilliantly to be where we are, but it also feels like both are now more relying on games running out / maintaining position than forcefully going out to achieve the incredible. Arsenal could shithouse a draw at the Emirates and then just about do enough, likewise we could win 3 or 4 and draw another 1 or 2 of our last 8 and just get over the line, but I think if there were another 6 games remaining then Man City and Liverpool (possibly Brighton as well) would probably be many peoples faves to surpass the respective 'overachieving' clubs, certainly more so in Man City's case, given they are already the current 4/9 faves for the title and it also 'being in there hands' (as well as Arsenal's of course).

 

[Paullow]

43 minutes ago, Mahoneys Tache said:

Don’t care. Best season since SBR. 5th would be miraculous compared to the dross of the previous decade and a half. 

I had this mindset, and would have been absolutely delighted with 6th and European football, and just happy to back in the upper echelons of the league again, but I think after the West Ham result, or certainly Brentford, seeing where we were (or are) in the table, hearing more and more noise about the Champions League, and it becoming much more of a reality, it would be a bit disappointing if we were to miss out, but then again, we clearly are a team on the up, we will be getting stronger ever year, and will be expecting (even if not achieving) to be competing with the best sides for years to come, and not like a West Ham or Wolves or someone who could have one great season, just miss out on top 4/5 and then be equally as likely to finish 12th or 13th the following season.

[Kid Icarus]

Such is the chaos of football that I'm far more confident of us beating Arsenal at home than Everton away.

[The Prophet]

2 hours ago, SUPERTOON said:

I’m more thinking I’d expect Liverpool, Chelsea, Spurs and probably Villa being much tougher prospects next season.

 

This isn't a personal dig or anything, but this is one of the biggest forum myths going. 

 

21/22 - Only the top five got 60+ points, 70 points would have been enough to secure top four. 

20/21 - Arguably the most competitive season in recent history, but only the top six got 65+ points, 67 points would have been enough for top four.

19/20 - Only the top five got 60+ points, 63 points would have been  enough for top four.

18/19 - Only the top six got 60+ points, 71 points would have been enough for top four. 

17/18 - Only the top six got 60+ points, 71 points would have been enough for top four. 

 

In the recent history of 60+ points has been enough for top six in four out of five seasons and 71 points would have got you top four in all five. Obviously things are fluid and can change. For example, previously there's been a much bigger drop off between the top six or seven and the rest of the league. At different times Arsenal, Man United and Liverpool have all fallen away and risen. West Ham and Leicester were in the mix and have now fallen away. Generally though, those points totals remain pretty consistent. 

 

The point I'm making is that this season, you have six or seven teams that are looking at 60+ plus points and 70 points looks a safe bet for the Champions League. You'll always have teams that will have good or bad seasons. Brighton are likely to lose key players in the summer, Chelsea and Spurs are looking at changes in management, Liverpool and Man United are looking at changes in ownership and there will be teams who will have total curve ball season either for the better or the worse. My point is the structure of the league shifts slowly over time, it is unlikely that you will have eight or nine teams that are all suddenly brilliant European contenders. 

 

 

Edited April 18, 2023 by The Prophet

[The College Dropout]

There’s no reason for us to ‘just get over the line’.  We’ve got 15 points from the last 18.  We face 4 of the worst 6 teams in the league. You would expect at least 2 of those to go down.  
 

Arsenal have much less margin for error and stronger team chasing them down.  4 wins, 2 draws, 2 losses and we are in the CL. For Arsenal many would consider that a ‘bottle job’. 

[The Prophet]

Just now, The College Dropout said:

There’s no reason for us to ‘just get over the line’.  We’ve got 15 points from the last 18.  We face 4 of the worst 6 teams in the league. You would expect at least 2 of those to go down.  
 

Arsenal have much less margin for error and stronger team chasing them down.  4 wins, 2 draws, 2 losses and we are in the CL. For Arsenal many would consider that a ‘bottle job’. 

 

Agreed, but I was talking in general terms of expectation and the bigger picture. 

[Paullow]

3 minutes ago, The Prophet said:

 

Agreed, but I was talking in general terms of expectation and the bigger picture. 

I think that was more a reply to my reply to you, ha.

 

[Paullow]

It's only one match, but the Villa result has clearly put doubts in a few peoples minds. You then start to think what if Brentford scored another in that first half, what if West Ham scored after 2 mins instead of hitting the post, or if they didn't stupidly concede 25 seconds into the second half when they were looking like they may have gone on to get at least a point at half time, you then start to think Dan Burn is looking more and more vulnerable every match, Pope a bit more shaky, Botman making more mistakes, and then you start to doubt some of the pre takeover guys being good enough, despite collectively being excellent for 15 or so months.

 

Next couple of games are massive. We are circa even money faves to beat Spurs at home, who aren't great travellers, have injuries, and are not in a great place generally, we'll be similar odds against Everton as well who have just lost 1-3 at home to a Fulham side who everyone thought would be 'on the beach' and season just fizzle out. We should be looking for 4 to 6 points in those games (which would be very good assuming we also beat Soton), but at the same time, both could potentially be tricky - Kane could give our defenders nightmares, and they could get in behind us early like what Lpool did so successfully at SJP and what Spurs didn't do successfully at their ground. Everton will make it a hostile atmosphere with it being an evening kick off and the Gordon factor, and if we were to only get 0/1/2 points in those games, then the gap / odds will almost certainly shorten.

 

Contradicting the above paragraph , but I guess we can only just take it one game at a time and try not to be too concerned with other teams results, starting on Sunday, where we have a good chance to almost certainly put the final nail in Spurs' coffin, and it will be great to finally get back to SJP after making it through 3 potentially awkward away matches in a row.

 

 

Edited April 18, 2023 by Paullow

[black_n_white]

When is the Brighton game likely to be rearranged? Apologies if it has already btw.

[Stifler]

3 minutes ago, black_n_white said:

When is the Brighton game likely to be rearranged? Apologies if it has already btw.

It will probably be the midweek between the penultimate game of the season, and the final day of the season.

[The Prophet]

Aye, if I recall the only dates left are between Leeds and Leicester or Leicester and Chelsea.

 

I hope we're more or less home and hosed by then so it's less damaging on the nerves

[Chicken Dancer]

Would be so lush going into that Chelsea game with no pressure whatsoever because it's done and dusted. Sadly think it'll go down to the wire.

[Ace]

1 hour ago, The Prophet said:

Aye, if I recall the only dates left are between Leeds and Leicester or Leicester and Chelsea.

 

I hope we're more or less home and hosed by then so it's less damaging on the nerves

Also can’t be the Tuesday of the Leeds/Leicester week as Brighton are playing on the Sunday 

[1964]

2 hours ago, AyeDubbleYoo said:

 

When's the last time we fell short?  

 

We've been dire for pretty much all of living memory. 

Have we ever fell long 

[Jack27]

https://www.euroclubindex.com/league-odds/ makes for good reading

[Pata]

4 hours ago, Chicken Dancer said:

Literally cannot shake the feeling that Liverpool are going to be the ones to nab 4th.

 

I know they probably will drop points in one of their games left, which would mean we'd only need 12 points to guarantee finishing above them (if we only get 12 we won't be finishing top 4 I'd guess), but I can honestly see them winning every game  

 

The paranoia is unreal here.

 

Even if you give Liverpool a 70% chance of a win in all their remaining games (which is too high), it would only happen 4 times out 100. They have done something similar before but it's still very unlikely and this team isn't as good due to worse midfield and defence.

 

 

Edited April 18, 2023 by Pata

[Krabbe2]

Really don't want to go to London and have to win against Chelsea in the last game to make the top 4. Yes they are bad now but this can turn around and they have players who are good.

[ohmelads]

I'm confident Liverpool will go on a big run because of their fixtures and returning players.

 

Their next opponents Forest are in horrendous form. Then they travel to West Ham. That's a potentially tricky one depending on which West Ham turn up, but we saw first hand why they're struggling, and that's Liverpool's trickiest away fixture. Brentford (0 wins in their last 5) and Fulham (1 win in their last 6) look like they're already thinking about the beach so it's a perfect time to be playing them now. Villa and Spurs are the other tricky ones but both are at Anfield. Liverpool's other away games are Southampton and Leicester. I think I read they have the best remaining fixtures of any team in the league on paper. People will say look at their form over the season, but Thiago and Jota are back in the fold and there's basically a fully fit squad now. They made the same late season run two seasons ago.

 

They're a far bigger threat than Villa. They've got a game in hand on Villa and go level on pts with a win, and far better GD. Villa's fixtures are far tougher, as are Brighton's (they play Man City, Man U, plus Arsenal away, Villa away, and a cup game against Man U). Neither Villa nor Brighton have the huge squad depth Liverpool do or the number of players with experience of these situations, and to be honest, I don't see them getting the "breaks" from officials/var either when it really matters (look what happened to Brighton).

 

To go on the kind of run Liverpool need, you normally need the kinds of fixtures Liverpool have. 72 points (5 wins and a draw from our last 8) is a big ask but would put us mathematically out of reach of Liverpool, and I wouldn't see anyone matching that. Tottenham is must win for us and I reckon Spurs fans are thinking the same. I think neither side would take a draw if offered.

 

 

Edited April 18, 2023 by ohmelads

[Disco]

5-6/1 with the bookies to get top 4. Probably worth a dabble.