Smal Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 like, even last night it was Forest 0.67xg - 1.99xg Man U. Probably the most fortuitous season I’ve ever seen a side have. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
El Prontonise Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 1 minute ago, Smal said: like, even last night it was Forest 0.67xg - 1.99xg Man U. Probably the most fortuitous season I’ve ever seen a side have. It really reminds me of our Pardew 5th season, so many close games. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smal Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 (edited) 22 minutes ago, El Prontonise said: It really reminds me of our Pardew 5th season, so many close games. yeah, although I think Nuno probably has a more sound and deliberate plan in place than Pards did Edited April 2 by Smal Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
KingArthur Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 I think xG doesn't tell much in their games. They are deadly on the counter and have very little possession. Opposition has the ball and some kind of control, but do they really have many dangerous chances? I mean counter attack counts as 0,00 xG if you mess the key pass like they did couple of times yesterday. They have been lucky, but also they have been hard to break down. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sibierski Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 2 hours ago, Kid Icarus said: We were a miles better side than this Forest one. It blows my mind that more teams haven't figured them out in the way that Howe has. Teams have done well against them, it’s just a lot of results keep going Forest way as the underlaying stats says so. They’ll naturally drop off next season because training and match prep in like 48 hour turn arounds is a completely different ball game. Howe touched on this I think it was for the League Cup SF. Where he said our experience and learnings from the required short turn around match plans from Europe helped him plan and implement for the Arsenal game. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiresias Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 (edited) I'd take the xG version with a pinch of salt it tends to slightly inflate the dominance of teams that have the ball and press high and make teams like Forest look worse. Yes their position is inflated by Chris Wood clealry overpoerforming and that will impact it a bunch but no I don't think they have played like a lower midtable team and got lucky which is kinda what the xg implies. I think it's a slight flaw in xg that illustrates. I am not against xG, but I think this more illustrates it's limitations than Forest fluking every game. To clarify they are overperforming, but it's i guess the 'wildly' bit ought to bring a bit of skepticism to the stats Edited April 2 by Tiresias Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWMag Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 If we can win our next 3 games, which is definitely doable, I’ll feel a lot more confident about it Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr.Spaceman Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 2 minutes ago, NWMag said: If we can win our next 3 games, which is definitely doable, I’ll feel a lot more confident about it And we've got Palace at home after that, absolutely winnable. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
JT24 Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 Now would be a great time to go on another 10 game winning streak. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanj Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 Few random musings on Forest: - I wonder if Nuno being the former GK has some additional impact on Sels? - Murillo and Milenkovic are class CBs and am not surprised with them there. - Genuinely shocked Anderson has gotten on as a double pivot, as I felt he was quite poor defending deep for us but really a massive threat in the other half of the pitch with his aggression, strength and pressing. - I can see Forest upgrading Yates at some point. - Wood has been fucking class for them, but assume they will need to find a long-term replacement for him as he's only getting older. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Edgar Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 Man oh man. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteV Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 If Forest make CL, wouldn’t be surprised to see them spend really big, as you’d suspect the fat cry baby in charge will gamble the house on them being able to get in again next season. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
timeEd32 Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 Stats wise Forest are much more similar to 2022/23 Man United with a better story. The problem for them and their style is the margins are so thin. They've scored first in 77% of their games. When they've conceded first they've won 0.50 points per game (league avg. is 0.73; NUFC at 1.13). They haven't trailed at halftime at home all season. In the five away games they've trailed at halftime they've earned one point. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr.Spaceman Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 40 minutes ago, SteV said: If Forest make CL, wouldn’t be surprised to see them spend really big, as you’d suspect the fat cry baby in charge will gamble the house on them being able to get in again next season. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
The College Dropout Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 Forest won’t be able to spend big imo. But also probably not forced to sell. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteV Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 1 minute ago, Dr.Spaceman said: Fortunately, or unfortunately, depending on your point of view, they can’t quite be that reckless due to PSR, but I’d still see them doing something like selling Gibbs-White for £60/70m, then spending the £200m or so that it theoretically allows, and worrying later about how they’ll get the required increase in revenue in future seasons. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sibierski Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 Each time I see Anderson, it hurts me so much. Should’ve been a CM here for good majority of his 20s and we never got to really experience him because of the unfortunate injury last season Going to be more painful in seasons to come when he breaks into England team. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stifler Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 1 hour ago, SteV said: If Forest make CL, wouldn’t be surprised to see them spend really big, as you’d suspect the fat cry baby in charge will gamble the house on them being able to get in again next season. How? Their owner isn’t as rich as some people make out. I think he’s the 15th richest owner in the Premier League. He also owns Olympiacos, which is his boyhood club, arguably the bigger club of the two teams. This is on top of the fact that he holds interests in other companies. His total net worth is about the same as what PIF are rumoured to be dropping on our new stadium. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbydazzla Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 (edited) Nottingham Forestatistics Talk about N-O fun sponges being able taking the joy out of a situation where a non-cartel team are poking one in the eye of the cartel and denying them a CL spot. Have fans of other clubs dissected our league cup run using quantum physics level statistics and told us why we're lucky to have won a piece of silverware and it won't be repeated ? Forest are riding high with a counter attacking style of football, just enjoy it for what it is. Unless you're a Derby fan, obvz. Edited April 2 by bobbydazzla Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteV Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 9 minutes ago, Stifler said: How? Their owner isn’t as rich as some people make out. I think he’s the 15th richest owner in the Premier League. He also owns Olympiacos, which is his boyhood club, arguably the bigger club of the two teams. This is on top of the fact that he holds interests in other companies. His total net worth is about the same as what PIF are rumoured to be dropping on our new stadium. By gambling the CL income and/or the income from any sales they make. It’s effectively what they did when they got promoted. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteV Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 Just now, bobbydazzla said: Nottingham Forestatistics Talk about taking the joy out of a situation where a non-cartel team are poking one in the eye of the cartel and denying them a CL spot. Have fans of other clubs dissected our league cup run using quantum physics level statistics and told us why we're lucky to have won a piece of silverware and it won't be repeated ? Forest are riding high with a counter attacking style of football, just enjoy it for what it is. Unless you're a Derby fan, obvz. Or a an ex-miner. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Colos Short and Curlies Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 49 minutes ago, The College Dropout said: Forest won’t be able to spend big imo. But also probably not forced to sell. They might have a problem this year as the CL goodies only feature next year. No idea what the position is but imagine they will be fairly close seeing as they were close last year and haven't increased any revenues really this year Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stifler Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 1 hour ago, SteV said: By gambling the CL income and/or the income from any sales they make. It’s effectively what they did when they got promoted. It’s already been shown with us that you don’t automatically get a large Champions League windfall. Also they had to buy when they came up, all their players either went back on loan, or had expired contracts. I can’t see them wanting to break PSR rules again, because even 6 point deduction would probably put them out of future challenges at the top of the league, and they will likely get a more severe fine next time. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
toon25 Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 2 hours ago, The College Dropout said: Forest won’t be able to spend big imo. But also probably not forced to sell. I reckon they will, like. Or at least will try and spunk decent wedge. Their owner doesn't give a single shit about FFP Apparently they're hoping for Cunha Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
The College Dropout Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 9 minutes ago, toon25 said: I reckon they will, like. Or at least will try and spunk decent wedge. Their owner doesn't give a single shit about FFP Apparently they're hoping for Cunha They sold a lot last summer. Got a lot of money for some French lads. They won't risk a points deduction. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
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