The Europeometer™ (2024/25) - NUFC Qualify for Conference League (at least)

[Maggies]

Villa and Forest playing tough away games before we face Chelsea should give us a good idea of what is needed. Villa draw and Forest loss then a point again Chelsea will be fine.

[Danh1]

3 minutes ago, Maggies said:

Villa and Forest playing tough away games before we face Chelsea should give us a good idea of what is needed. Villa draw and Forest loss then a point again Chelsea will be fine.

Forest’s away game is a game in hand, they play lager on the Sunday at home to Leicester, so I would be disappointed with a draw even if the two results this week go well.

[Broadsword]

48 minutes ago, black_n_white said:

Every side in top 7 will drop points between now and end of season (not including when teams play each other).

 

City won't and I don;t think Villa will either.  We need 69 points includign a win against Chelsea and we will be fine, anything at Arsenal will be a bonus.

[kingxlnc]

I really want us and Forest to get CL, with Villa and Chelsea missing out.

 

We both need to beat Chelsea and make them sack another manager and start the cycle again

 

it was a bad week results wise for us so far

[Broadsword]

In fact I think if we beat Chelsea and Everton, baring a massive swing in goal difference between us Forest and Villa we are mathmatically guaraanteed top 5.

[huss9]

STILL. IN. OUR. HANDS.

 

 

[The College Dropout]

Not much has changed. Need to beat Chelsea and Everton. 
 

 

Good point in the end. I’m 90% confident 68 points gets it done.  I’m 99.9% certain 69 points gets it done. We are on track for 69 points. 
 

Massive game next week. 

[Jonas]

Had it going down to the wire a month back, 1 point in it.  Worst of either world really, whether we qualify or not it means brutality ahead.

(Didn't have Chelsea to beat Liverpool in the calculations)

 

5 more for Villa 8 for Forest.

 

 

 

Edited 13 hours ago by Jonas

[Jonas]

2 hours ago, Broadsword said:

In fact I think if we beat Chelsea and Everton, baring a massive swing in goal difference between us Forest and Villa we are mathmatically guaraanteed top 5.

Forest are 4 behind with 12 points to play for though 3 of those would have to be at Chelsea's expense.

[Mazzy]

2 hours ago, Broadsword said:

 

City won't and I don;t think Villa will either.  We need 69 points includign a win against Chelsea and we will be fine, anything at Arsenal will be a bonus.

 

If Villa don't drop points against Bournemouth then yes I reckon they go on an win the next two. They've lucked out actually by facing Spurs and Man Utd at just the right time in their season and whilst they're both shit.

[Ben]

As with anything Newcastle I'm a pessimist, just look at what happened last season with Man Utd winning the FA cup. 

 

With our remaining fixtures i can see this going tits up, Forest losing tonight might calm my nerves a bit.

[Menace]

We'll be fine

[KingArthur]

21 minutes ago, Menace said:

We'll be fine

So we are outperforming our xG? Worrying.

[Menace]

Credit to Bunce and new fitness department - we've managed injuries a lot better this season.

[Groundhog63]

9 minutes ago, Menace said:

Credit to Bunce and new fitness department - we've managed injuries a lot better this season.

 

Was thinking that last night. Given the parlous state of our squad and blank transfer windows something had to be done. 

I remember hearing, from Pep amongst others, that we should do well this season not having Europe to contend with. 

That's obvs a good point BUT I do think changes were made to ease the workload/injury potential. Perhaps even how we train and adjusting the way we play. Took a few months to gel. 

Hence the slow start. 

 

I'm convinced, with a few (3) additions, we'll come out of the blocks next season. 

 

As this one stands, I'll take it. The run in, twitchy as it is, is going how I thought if would. To the wire. 

 

50p 5p

 

 

Edited 5 hours ago by Groundhog63

[54]

59 minutes ago, KingArthur said:

So we are outperforming our xG? Worrying.

[KingArthur]

3 minutes ago, 54 said:

Yea, that stat is kind of pointless.

[Menace]

[Terraloon]

Morning.

 

In the day my Dad( no doubt like most) when he was filling out his Littewoods coupon would look at the form guide printed in the newspapers and week after week he failed to win even his stake money back.

 

Football is and always will beincredibly difficult to predict. 

A sending off , a fluke goal, an injury, loss of form the factors that cant be predicted to a degree make it a game we all love.

 

I had absolutely no confidence before kick off yesterday indeed it was only after we ( Chelsea) scored the 3rd  was I convinced we would win.

 

Having said all that I would suggest that the team that I believe this weekend have been dragged back into the mix is Arsenal.Iam not really expecting ( hoping yes without doubt) them to miss out on CL but their 2nd place is far from a given and they certainly aren’t a team that looks close to the top of their game. As mad as it sounds I can see them getting just one more point this season and that will be away at Southampton. The midweek game in Paris means Arteta has to go 100% that game a few days on  in Liverpool won’t be easy Slott will go 100% in front of an Anfield crowd grows the challenges. 

 

As for us and indeed you yes it’s in our own hands . A NUFC at its best or even close to its best  will present us  a massive challenge but at the same time if we are out our best it won’t be easy for you. The table and indeed GD suggests that there isn’t a lot of difference between us and no doubt like the majority I can point to games where we should have got a point or two extra so it’s back to my initial point “ football is difficult to predict “ !
 

 

 

 

Edited 4 hours ago by Terraloon

[astraguy]

So if I've done this right

New max points -72! Gd 21

Chel- max points 72 gd 6

Forest max points 72 gd 12

Villa max points 69 gd 6

So 2 wins outta outta 3 and villa can't catch us, doesn't guarantee cl though 

[STM]

[ExiledGeordie]

We’d all obviously want to be in a situation where we had more breathing room going into the last 3 but we’ve got two home games remaining and we’ve done well against the Arse in recent times. 
 

It’s frustrating that Chelsea appear to have hit some form again starting with that late win against Fulham and got lucky in that Pool had already won the league before yesterday which changed the dynamic completely. It’ll be a tough match against them but I still fancy us at home next weekend and the Forest Chelsea match last day of the season could pay huge dividends. Just win our last two home games and try and get something at the Arse.

[Dr Venkman]

In our hands with 3 to play, 2 at home. It’ll be ok lads.

[Terraloon]

16 minutes ago, astraguy said:

So if I've done this right

New max points -72! Gd 21

Chel- max points 72 gd 6

Forest max points 72 gd 12

Villa max points 69 gd 6

So 2 wins outta outta 3 and villa can't catch us, doesn't guarantee cl though 

We share identical GD you are ahead in goals scored

[t00nt00n313]

31 minutes ago, astraguy said:

So if I've done this right

New max points -72! Gd 21

Chel- max points 72 gd 6

Forest max points 72 gd 12

Villa max points 69 gd 6

So 2 wins outta outta 3 and villa can't catch us, doesn't guarantee cl though 

 

I think if we finish on 69 by beating Chelsea then it's almost impossible for both of forest and Chelsea to also finish above us because they both play each other in the last game.

 

I.e. if we beat Chelsea the best they can get is  6 points from the remaining 2 games which would put them at 69 and due to gd they would probs be ahead of us, however in this scenario forest would have lost their last game, so even if they won their other 3 remaining games the best they could finish is 69 which would be level with us but it's really unlikely they would exceed our gd in this scenario (they would have to close a gd of 9, from 4 games of which one of them is a loss to Chelsea in this scenario, and we will have won 2 out of 3 which is extremely unlikely).

 

Alternatively, if we beat Chelsea and forest win that final game then the highest Chelsea can finish on is 66.

 

So basically 69 points assuming we beat Chelsea is practically guaranteed CL more or less, so we need to beat chelsea at home then either arsenal away or everton at home.

 

Personally I think we'll struggle against Chelsea next week and get a draw but I hope I'm wrong.

 

 

Edited 3 hours ago by t00nt00n313