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The TopFourometer™ (2023/24)  

629 members have voted

  1. 1. How likely are we to finish top four this season? 0 = nee chance, 5 = can’t call it, 10 = nailed on marra



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39 minutes ago, The College Dropout said:

They can win 9 in a row. It’s just unlikely. 8 wins and 1 draw they can do.  Perhaps 7 wins and 2 draws.  
 

With the fixtures we have, the form and the personnel available our floor should be their ceiling. 

 

This isn't the Liverpool of last season though. This season they've won 14 out of the 31 games they've played so I'd be stunned if they pulled off a run like that. 

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15 minutes ago, jack j said:

Man utd and Liverpool for them this week they'll be out the running by Sunday night

 

 

A Man Utd win Thursday, followed by a draw between Liverpool and Spurs this weekend would be perfect. If we beat Everton and Southampton at the same time then its over. Honestly, its a very likely scenario. 

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1 minute ago, Decky said:

 

This isn't the Liverpool of last season though. This season they've won 14 out of the 31 games they've played so I'd be stunned if they pulled off a run like that. 

Aye. 
 

But it’s possible. They have the talent and fixtures to do it. They won 8 out of 10 in their last terrible season. 
 

It’s entirely possible they do something similar again and end up 65-69 points.  But I’m confident we hit 70-74 in any case. We could just as likely go unbeaten or only lose 1 for the remainder of the season. Our floor is their ceiling. 
 

Assuming the key lads stay fit. 

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I think I would prefer a draw between Spurs and ManU. Especially when considering the injuries ManU have. Always nice to have another team than us “risk” losing out instead of there being only one spot to fight for. Plus it would be sweet to end in 3rd which ain’t impossible. ManU play Spurs, Villa and Brighton next I think.

 

As long as Spurs don’t win. Even with that said I don’t see Spurs finding good enough out of nowhere anyway. 

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To go back to that season Liverpool chased down Leicester late on, after 31 games Leicester were already buckling and the gap had been narrowed to four points. Liverpool went onto to drop four points in their final seven games, which they can't afford to do this time around, unless of course the wheels completely come off at our end.

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As daft as it may sound I am loathe to seriously use anyone's results from 2020-21 as a comparison or benchmark. It was barely even a sport in my eyes with the lack of fans and it really does have an effect, iirc the record for the amount of away wins in a season was smashed and Liverpool lost 6 games at Anfield on the bounce. No chance that happens with fans allowed in.

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1 hour ago, The College Dropout said:

They can win 9 in a row. It’s just unlikely. 8 wins and 1 draw they can do.  Perhaps 7 wins and 2 draws.  
 

With the fixtures we have, the form and the personnel available our floor should be their ceiling. 

Not from 7 games they can't [emoji38]

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3 minutes ago, HaydnNUFC said:

As daft as it may sound I am loathe to seriously use anyone's results from 2020-21 as a comparison or benchmark. It was barely even a sport in my eyes with the lack of fans and it really does have an effect, iirc the record for the amount of away wins in a season was smashed and Liverpool lost 6 games at Anfield on the bounce. No chance that happens with fans allowed in.

 

It's more the point that Liverpool had far less work to do to finish top four than they do this time around. 

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Once Brighton and Liverpool next drop points I think we'll be even more confident about 4th like. Even if we have a pretty average end we should get there. 

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Come on West Ham! If they at least draw while we win against Everton I really think it’s more or less done. Unless Brighton miraculously slap all the big teams and win which seems extremely unlikely (we would have to implode too) 

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On 24/04/2023 at 12:00, Ikon said:

 

Doesn't work quite as easy as that :lol: Some decisions against us will have helped us gain points in other matches in a way. Coming back after unfair results and all that. Plus i'm sure we have got some decisions lucky too.

 

 

 

Arsenal have been shafted a few times by var too. It’s not just us 

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Spurs and Liverpool can currently get a maximum of 71 points, Brighton 76.

 

We're currently on 59, so realistically need 3 wins out of the last 7 games to secure top 4, and even then that's assuming they all go on a mental run of wins (something they've not done all season).

 

It's happening man.

 

 

Edited by Dr.Spaceman

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When Joao Pedro scored that late goal against us at St James last season I remember thinking at the time that I was looking forward to the 25th of April of 2023 where we would be discussing CL being so so close. 

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Did a predictor. Reasonably happy with the results. Us third. Villa, Brighton, and Liverpool tied on points; Liverpool 5th on goal difference. Everton down. 
 

Probably over-optimistic about our results. And for some reason I kept picking West Ham for a win;  like they will go on that run every expects from Liverpool. [emoji38]

 

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17 minutes ago, Dr.Spaceman said:

Definitely think it's Liverpool who we need to keep an eye one now, hadn't realised how favourable their fixtures were.

 

I think I've been saying we only need 4 more wins since two victories ago but I think we might need it still just to be sure. :lol:

 

On the plus side I think Arsenal has become very winnable now. 

 

Surely 3 will do it and Liverpool won't win 6 or 7 out of 7 though?

 

 

Edited by Optimistic Nut

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2 hours ago, andyc35i said:

Do we want a Spurs win or Man Utd win on Thursday? A draw probably suits us most, but if Man Utd win then that’s Spurs 100% done with top 4 you’d think 

2 draws for  spurs in their next 2 games would be brilliant.

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1 hour ago, AyeDubbleYoo said:

Whatever you think about what other teams can do, the fact is we are in a better position than them, and we’re a good team. 
 

There’s no logical need to worry. 

 

This thread would have half as many pages if we were all able to remain logical.

  • We're third in the table with a 6-10 point lead on our rivals.
  • We have a GD that is becoming more insurmountable by the week for all but Liverpool
  • We have the 6th best home record and the 3rd best away record.
  • We are the 3rd most in form side behind only City and Villa (7th in home form, 4th in away form).
  • We've lost 4 games all season (two of them without our best player). 
  • 4 of our final 7 games are at home, including the hardest two (Arsenal and Brighton)
  • 4 of our final 7 games are against teams battling relegation, which you could twist as a negative but the fact is those teams aren't very good
  • Going back to Feb. 1 of last year we have been the 4th best team in the league (one point worse off than Liverpool)

If you were a fan of a club chasing us the loss at Villa may have provided a glimmer of hope and then you watched Newcastle respond with arguably the best performance by anyone this season. At this point you're likely thinking a rash of injuries and suspensions are the only chance, or maybe you've turned your full attention to Manchester United who are already dealing with injuries, a worse GD, a difficult stretch coming up, and also a huge cup final to think about.

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