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The TopFourometer™ (2023/24)  

629 members have voted

  1. 1. How likely are we to finish top four this season? 0 = nee chance, 5 = can’t call it, 10 = nailed on marra



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7 games left. 3 wins and 4 draws would mathematically do it regardless of however many hypothetical 25-0 wins anyone else manages. What a great position to be in.

 

I'd happily take tonight as one of those draws and back us to do enough in the remaining 6 games.

 

Be a good test as well. It's going to be a hostile atmosphere and we will need to be calm and clever enough to play the game not the occasion and not rile the crowd up unnecessarily. Balls it up tonight and Leeds away suddenly looks a bit more scary.

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10 minutes ago, Infatuation Junkie said:

I also don’t see us picking up less than 12

 

Aye, just think it reduces the margin of error. 

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It's feasible that Liverpool win all their remaining games, but it's not likely. Their longest winning streak this season is 4. Within their last 7 games they've lost and drawn to bottom half sides. They've had a good few games but it's not like they're on this long run of unbeatable form. I can see them doing well, but don't expect max points.

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we’ve had 6 wins out of 7

we’re 3rd in the league

we just annihilated Spurs

we’ve only lost 4 all season

we’re 3rd in the form table over last 6 games

we’ve got an outstanding GD

we’ve got a mean defence

we’ve hit goal scoring form

 

It’s in our hands

 

Trust in Eddie, his amazing team and this amazing squad and stop pissing in your y-fronts  

 

 

 

 

Edited by bobbydazzla

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ManU's fixtures don't look easy like. Especially when considering the players they have/might have out combined with fatique maybe. They have played one game less but i can see them dropping more points than us in the coming say 3-4 games. 

 

 

Edited by Ikon

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Liverpool have dropped points against Everton, Leeds, Forest, Bournemouth, Palace and Wolves this season.

 

They're more than capable of going on a run and if they win nine in a row, fair play to them. But give their inconsistencies this season, it seems unlikely.

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20 minutes ago, AJ9 said:

Worrying is such a N-O hobby. I’m sure if we just focus on what we need to do as a team, we will be fine. 

 

Worrying.

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Everton's record at Goodison is 5 wins, 3 draws, 8 losses, that ain't no fortress. Dyche has certainly been no messiah since taking over either and they're the lowest scoring team in the league. We are odds on favourites for a reason, we should smash them.

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The only issue I see is if we have a bit of a wobble the next couple of games but there’s nothing to suggest that’ll happen. Even a draw tonight and a win on Sunday would be ok. I also fancy us against Arsenal at home with a roaring atmosphere. 
 

What would really help is if Spurs players show some backbone for Mason and turn in a couple of displays tonight and on Sunday. 
 

 

 

 

Edited by ExiledGeordie

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12 minutes ago, ExiledGeordie said:

The only issue I see is if we have a bit of a wobble the next couple of games but there’s nothing to suggest that’ll happen. Even a draw tonight and a win on Sunday would be ok. I also fancy us against Arsenal at home with a roaring atmosphere. 
 

What would really help is if Spurs players show some backbone for Mason and turn in a couple of displays tonight and on Sunday. 
 

 

 

 

 

Not too good a display though. Just the right level of good. A "let's get a draw" level ideally.

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Premier League top four chances for Newcastle United reassessed after Wednesday’s Liverpool and Brighton results

The super computer model probability predictions are based on the FiveThirtyEight revision to the Soccer Power Index, which is a rating mechanism for football teams which takes account of over half a million matches, and is based on Opta‘s play-by-play data.

We can see how the computer model now rates the percentage probability for Newcastle United compared to what their prediction was before these midweek results, current percentage prediction of Premier League top four and in brackets what it was after the weekend matches:

 

Arsenal 100% (99%)

Man City 99% (99%)

Man Utd 88% (85%)

Newcastle United 87%  (86%)

Liverpool 17% (10%)

Brighton 5% (17%)

Tottenham 2% (2%)

Aston Villa 1% (less than 1%)

 

 

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1 minute ago, huss9 said:

are manu fans as worried about liverpool as we are on here?

 

Generally speaking, no. It would take a collapse from us and an amazing run of form from Liverpool. 

 

While it's mathmetically possible though I don't want to get carried away, especially with our injuries and the fact there's still some bottlers in our squad.

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Last season’s results for our remaining fixtures got us 13 points. Football is football so barometers fairly pointless but it will be close ?

 

Getting 3 points instead of 1/0 tonight would be absolutely massive ??

 

 

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ManU fans are used to winning while we are used to losing, so we are bound to be more nervous about Liverpool.

Realistically, there are now only 3 clubs fighting for the 2 remaining CL places. 

ManU are as likely as us to have a poor sequence of results that could let Liverpool in. Beat Everton this evening and our odds will be 95%.

 

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6 points in the next 2 games should do it, like.

 

Assuming Liverpool beat Spurs it would mean that they need to be 10 points better than us in 5 games. If that happens then the 1996 lads can be forgiven as this will be a complete capitulation. We'd need 7 points from Arsenal, Leeds, Brighton, Leicester & Chelsea.

 

Saying that I'd take a draw tonight as long as we beat Southampton.

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