The Europeometer™ (2024/25)

[Kid Icarus]

35 minutes ago, Optimistic Nut said:

 

They lost 3 of the last 8 games (Southampton was one of those 3 wins in 33 for the bottom 6). Newcastle and Spurs were the other 2 losses.

 

 

 

They lost 5 of their last 10 man. Palace, Brighton, Southampton, Spurs, Us.  Spurs and if you're being kind Brighton are the only ones there that aren't huge cock ups for a team going for the Champions League 

 

 

Edited May 8, 2023 by Kid Icarus

[Rich]

5 minutes ago, Optimistic Nut said:

 

I just used top 6 v bottom 6 because it was easier. Give over with 'preposterous' man I put a lot of time and effort into doing that. 

 

Seriously, give up with this fucking place. Fuck all of you. 

 

[Pata]

You can still over triple your money if you think Liverpool win all their remaining games, in other words it's less than 30% chance. Decent for something that most seem to think is already written in stone.

[Cronky]

It's been such a long time since the club has tasted any success, and so the hunger and the pressure can be all the greater amongst the supporters. That can communicate to the players, which to some extent I think is what happened in 1996. 

 

Having said that, Eddie has proved to be more adept than any other manager in dealing with that. He gets each player, and the team as a whole, very focused on the task in hand, blotting out the bigger picture. One game at a time, as he keeps saying.

 

I'm not saying I'm not worried. I'm a helpless fan, but this team is very resilient.

[Wullie]

11 minutes ago, Optimistic Nut said:

 

I just used top 6 v bottom 6 because it was easier. Give over with 'preposterous' man I put a lot of time and effort into doing that. 

 

Seriously, give up with this fucking place. Fuck all of you. 

 

 Sorry man, no offence intended. I just don't think it really works as a method, the league table often ends up looking warped at the end when desperate teams suddenly click, and teams who have spent 35 games battling relegation end up 12th. Leicester memorably did it the year before they won the title, finished 14th after being bottom for the entire season. It matters more where the teams were at the time of the match than where they finished.

 

So crack on with researching that!

 

Our ridiculously rampant and unexpected victory over Leicester (not too different to Everton today) that cost them a CL place was exactly the type of situation we're banking on not happening.

[Kid Icarus]

1 hour ago, Pata said:

 

Huge exaggeration means it's an opportunity to make money regardless of the end result.  

It doesn't like. I can't go into the bookies and ask for the difference between 92 and 65 percent

[Cronky]

23 minutes ago, Stifler said:

Is my maths correct here?

 

If we beat Leeds on Saturday, and somehow Leicester beat Liverpool on Monday, would we then only need a draw against Brighton on the Thursday?

 

Indeed, and I shall cherish that thought. One bad result for Liverpool changes things completely.

[timeEd32]

8 minutes ago, Kid Icarus said:

 

You're asking the wrong question. The question to ask is do I think that all things considered there's only an 8% chance we fail to win 2 out of 4 matches in a high pressure situation with Liverpool winning 3 out of 3 and Man United winning 3 out of 4? And the answer to that is no, I don't think there's only an 8% chance of that happening.

 

You're countering mathematical odds (which aren't perfect of course) with emotional arguments. There's no end to this debate.

 

44 minutes ago, Kid Icarus said:

Even concentrating solely on Liverpool, they have the form, the quality, the home fixtures, the experience of this situation/other high pressure situations, and the points gap that makes a 92% probability for us, 80% probability for Man United, and only a 27% chance for Liverpool look like an exaggerated difference with those factors and more in mind.

 

This is the most wrong thing you've said though. I'm going to vomit if I read one more time about how in form Liverpool are. I'd be much more on the side of how questionable the odds are if we had been playing like them. They could have easily dropped up to 6 points in the last few weeks. Maybe they ride this good fortune all the way to the end. 

 

BUT IT DOESN'T MATTER if we beat a Leeds side that has won two games since February (shipping 32 goals in the process) and a Leicester side who have one 1 out of their last 15 games having just conceded five to "on the beach" Fulham. 

[madras]

1 hour ago, Wullie said:

The thing these daft algorithms don't and can't take into account is, for want of a better word, bottle. A club like us going for this is completely different to what it would be if all the numbers were exactly the same but it was Liverpool in pole position and us doing the chasing. The algorithm would say the same but it's just not, and you can't quantify what the particular badge on the shirt does mentally.

 

Leicester found it out two years running. They looked absolute certainties both seasons and then suddenly the pressure just got to them when it mattered most.

 

We've not shown any signs at all of bottling it yet but I don't think Liverpool will drop another point now, these sides are relentless in these end of season scenarios. Any slip up against Leeds and I think we've had it.

And yet Leicester didn't bottle it to win the title, like Liverpool did when Stevie G slipped or the time when Michael Thomas scored and Man Utd bottled it the year after we did . The year Blackburn won it Man Utsd weren't composed against West Ham on the final day, at the end they were just lumping it in and hoping something would fall, they didn't bottle it....... sometimes things just don't happen.

 

 

Edit... Sorry Wullie that wasn't particularly aimed at you, just the whole bottling talk.

 

 

 

 

 

Edited May 8, 2023 by madras

[AyeDubbleYoo]

I just can’t believe this liverpool team is currently good enough to win every game. 

[Kid Icarus]

20 minutes ago, timeEd32 said:

 

You're countering mathematical odds (which aren't perfect of course) with emotional arguments. There's no end to this debate.

 

 

This is the most wrong thing you've said though. I'm going to vomit if I read one more time about how in form Liverpool are. I'd be much more on the side of how questionable the odds are if we had been playing like them. They could have easily dropped up to 6 points in the last few weeks. Maybe they ride this good fortune all the way to the end. 

 

BUT IT DOESN'T MATTER if we beat a Leeds side that has won two games since February (shipping 32 goals in the process) and a Leicester side who have one 1 out of their last 15 games having just conceded five to "on the beach" Fulham. 

 

I get what you're trying to argue, that I'm making an 'emotional argument' that's akin to some kind of irrational or baseless gut feeling that's without logic or merit, but it's not.

 

You can’t discount the factors that matter regarding each team, their experience in these situations, the pressure and so on, that would be purposefully naive imo.

 

And yes, their form. I dunno what else to say really, but I don't think it's me making an emotional argument on that one chief.

 

[Kid Icarus]

At the end of the day my only point is that I think a 92% chance of us doing it is much too high. That doesn't equate to pessimism by any means.

[Kid Icarus]

[Smal]

my only concern is we’ve been quite streaky this season. Whenever we’ve lost a game we’ve gone on to either draw or lose the next two games. We’ll have to break that pattern.

 

 

Edited May 8, 2023 by Smal

[Pata]

There's nothing wrong with our form either, 8-0-2 in last 10 and only behind Man City who have been perfect. Liverpool are 6-2-2 during that span.

[Pata]

1 minute ago, Smal said:

my only concern is we’ve been quite streaky this season. Whenever we’ve lost a game we’ve gone on to either draw or lose the next two games. We’ll have to break that pattern.

 

 

 

 

Three wins after losing to Villa.

[madras]

2 minutes ago, Smal said:

my only concern is we’ve been quite streaky this season. Whenever we’ve lost a game we’ve gone on to either draw or lose the next two games. We’ll have to break that pattern.

 

 

 

We broke it after Villa didn't we ?

 

 

Edit ..Pata wins.

 

 

Edited May 8, 2023 by madras

[Shadow Puppets]

1 minute ago, Smal said:

my only concern is we’ve been quite streaky this season. Whenever we’ve lost a game we’ve gone on to either draw or lose the next two games. We’ll have to break that pattern.

 

 

 

Not exactly true. See Brentford away win > Villa away loss > Spurs home win

[Super Duper Branko Strupar]

Is there anything this forum wont argue about? Odds and stats, ffs.

 

 

Edited May 8, 2023 by Super Duper Branko Strupar

[Kid Icarus]

2 minutes ago, Super Duper Branko Strupar said:

Is there anything this forum wont argue about? Odds and stats, ffs.

 

 

 

It still regularly brings up an argument over how to make a cup of tea that happened 13 years ago, I think we're alright tbh 

 

 

Edited May 8, 2023 by Kid Icarus

[Smal]

7 minutes ago, Pata said:

 

Three wins after losing to Villa.

you’re right, apologies. We’re all set for the CL then!

 

 

Edited May 8, 2023 by Smal

[madras]

2 minutes ago, Kid Icarus said:

It still regularly brings up an argument over how to make a cup of tea that happened 13 years ago, I think we're alright tbh 

 

 

 

Personally my tea making has came on massively in the last few years, it's all loose and without milk now, not boiling water and then leaving after taking the leaves out.

[wormy]

35 minutes ago, Super Duper Branko Strupar said:

Is there anything this forum wont argue about? Odds and stats, ffs.

 

 

 

 

There's many things this forum won't ever argue about and the fact you can't see that is shortsighted to say the least.

[GideonShandy]

12 minutes ago, wormy said:

 

There's many things this forum won't ever argue about and the fact you can't see that is shortsighted to say the least.

No it isn't.

[Stottie]

Doesn't the fivethirtyeight "Power rating" or whatever their score is have some kind of lag built into it? Like the UEFA coefficient for CL?

I'm not saying their equation is perfect, it won't be, but "bottling", "mentality monsters" etc. comes down to experience and that is reflected to a degree in there.

Fivethirtyeight had us on a low expected points for this season based on historic performances, not on the twenty games of Top 4 form we finished last season with.

 

If we do miss out, it'll come down to injuries like Bruno's and Longstaff's. We didn't lose to Arsenal on Sunday due to "mentality" or "bottle". We gave it a good go but weren't at full strength in the key area of the field. Arsenal too came to SJP last season as walking wounded and left empty-handed. We should resist the urge to grab the easy narrative.