The College Dropout Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 44 minutes ago, Myleftboot said: Think Villa will drop away. I would love to catch them but I don’t think we will. We’ll do well to finish within 3 points of them imo. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
KDT Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 (edited) 22 minutes ago, The College Dropout said: I would love to catch them but I don’t think we will. We’ll do well to finish within 3 points of them imo. Given that we’re 10 points away from them as it stands I’d say we’d do very well to finish within 3 points. Edited February 11 by KDT Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
timeEd32 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 I agree 5th is probably too far unless we’re blessed on the injury front the rest of the way (wouldn’t bet on it) and someone else has it bad. That said… Everyone from 3rd to 11th still have to play City, except for us. Everyone from 4th to 10th still have to play Liverpool, except for us. Liverpool, City, Arsenal, Villa, West Ham, and Brighton have extra European games. Villa still play the entire top 11 (except us). Points will be dropped all around us. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Karjala Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 It's a mini league for 6th and 7th spots now, hopefully we get Isak and Willock fit and have a good end to the season. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 I'm thinking 7th, but if Man U fancy beating Villa just to help us dream of closing 5th down a bit then I'm all for it. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
The College Dropout Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 8 hours ago, KDT said: Given that we’re 10 points away from them as it stands I’d say we’d do very well to finish within 3 points. Errr that’s what I said. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
astraguy Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Unless we sort the midfield out we have no chance,we got lucky yesterday Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr. TC Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 8 hours ago, wormy said: Didn't realise just how far the top 5 had pulled ahead tbh. More like how far we have dropped behind. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mazzy Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 If we somehow get Willock, Anderson, Isak and Pope back in the next 4 weeks and don't lose anyone else for longer than a week we might have an extremely small chance of getting 5th. But tbh I'd be happily to take 7th and the FA Cup, I'm not greedy. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paullow Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 I was mainly looking at our respective goals conceded in the past 2 years, last season after 24 games we had only conceded 17 (and it was only 13 after 22 games, but conceded 2 vs Liverpool and then Man City), by far the lowest in the league at that stage, but this season we've already conceded 39, and only 7 teams have conceded more. The main thing that shocked me though was that we are only 5 points worse off than what we were at this stage last season, 36 vs 41, but after those aforementioned back to back defeats, we were just about to win 5 in a row, or 8 of the next 9, and you just can't see a run like that happening this season Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ikon Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 (edited) I thought it was as much as 8 points worse. Edited February 11 by Ikon Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
wormy Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 1 hour ago, Dr. TC said: More like how far we have dropped behind. Cheery one, you. If it makes you feel any better, as a few others have noted, we're 5 points off our points total at this stage last season which isnt that much of a drop considering the circumstances of this season. Even if we kept up the pace of last season and sourced those five points from somewhere we'd jump a stonking.. one spot in the table and still be five points behind Villa who have a game in hand in 4th. It's as much teams have improved as it is us 'dropping behind' this season. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paullow Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 11 minutes ago, Ikon said: I thought it was as much as 8 points worse. We were admittedly draw specialists last season, but we've actually won more games this season Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ikon Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 (edited) 1 minute ago, Paullow said: We were admittedly draw specialists last season, but we've actually won more games this season Cheers. Good to see. Not that I’m very surprised or anything. Edited February 11 by Ikon Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kid Icarus Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 (edited) 20 minutes ago, Ikon said: I thought it was as much as 8 points worse. Right now we're only 5 points off where we were last season when we had a couple of losses and loads of draws. Unfortunately this season it's been losses but with a couple of wins in there to make up the numbers. We're now going into a run of 10 games where our record last season was excellect - won 8 lost 2 - so I expect we'll fall further behind during this period. Edited February 11 by Kid Icarus Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stifler Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Only 5 points off the same stage last season. Fucking hell, all we had to do was beat Luton both times and we’d be on course. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stifler Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 (edited) 6 minutes ago, Kid Icarus said: We're now going into a run of 10 games where our record last season was excellent - won 8 lost 2 - so I expect we'll fall further behind during this period. Eh, did we not draw against Arsenal away last season? Edited February 11 by Stifler Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kid Icarus Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 1 minute ago, Stifler said: Eh, did we not draw against Arsenal away last season? I'm talking about the equivalent point in time last season rather than opponent by opponent. On that basis I think we're further behind. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Tbf if you take out December where we were crippled the most we've been pretty consistent. 4 of the 10 defeats came there and 3 of the 6 defeats the rest of the season were Liverpool & City. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kid Icarus Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 (edited) Yeah, we're -7, because of our away form. Edited February 11 by Kid Icarus Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stifler Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 1 minute ago, Kid Icarus said: I'm talking about the equivalent point in time last season rather than opponent by opponent. On that basis I think we're further behind. Oh right, fair enough. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pata Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 25 minutes ago, Paullow said: I was mainly looking at our respective goals conceded in the past 2 years, last season after 24 games we had only conceded 17 (and it was only 13 after 22 games, but conceded 2 vs Liverpool and then Man City), by far the lowest in the league at that stage, but this season we've already conceded 39, and only 7 teams have conceded more. Just looked and our expected goals against last season was 27 after 24 games so we had ran really good and Pope had been sensational. This season expected goals against is at 41, it's still a clear increase but doesn't look quite as bad. Looking at this seasons expected points on Understat and we (-3.68 points) are pretty much even with Villa at fifth place, fighting for 4th place with them and Chelsea. Spurs (+11.52 points), Man United unsurprisingly (+10.00 points), West Ham (+7.81 points), Liverpool (+7.63 points) and Villa (+6.28 points) have been really lucky so far. Everton are seventh without the deduction well ahead of Brighton, Tottenham, West Ham and Man United. Looking at that data and we've been really unlucky this season on the basis that our main rivals have all been running really good and being quite lucky while we are having a tougher season even without taking into account all the injury problems. Just confirms to me that judging Howe based on this season is not fair on him and he has a clean slate to start the 24/25 season. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
TRon Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 3 hours ago, Optimistic Nut said: I'm thinking 7th, but if Man U fancy beating Villa just to help us dream of closing 5th down a bit then I'm all for it. It's nice to dream but with Hojlund scoring goals for Man U, I think it's more important we stay ahead of them than look too far ahead. Top 5 is unlikely due to the massive gap the teams have built up in those CL positions, and we still don't have enough midfielders or strikers to string together a run of 6 or 7 wins on the bounce to close it. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matt1892 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Our run in isn’t too bad at all, we should be looking to win 10 of the remaining games if we sort ourselves out. 6th should be the target but we need others to fall apart if we want 5th. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
The College Dropout Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 No European football means spurs won’t fall apart. Going out the FA Cup helps Villa imo. A deep run in the conference though could help with a collapse. But I just don’t see a collapse. And I don’t see us sorting out our defensive frailties enough to go on a big run. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
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