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The TopFourometer™ (2023/24)  

629 members have voted

  1. 1. How likely are we to finish top four this season? 0 = nee chance, 5 = can’t call it, 10 = nailed on marra



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1 minute ago, kingxlnc said:

Just shows fine margins, if we’d won at Old Trafford we’d have finished 6th

 

or held on vs Everton and beaten Brighton

 

Dropping the two points at Everton hasn't turned out to be pivotal.

 

There's a million sliding doors moments in a season with 380 matches, but I think we can afford to be glass half full, and say we've gained 7th when the odds weren't especially in our favour. 

 

But if you have to identify a moment which is most accountable for us not clinching 6th, it's Stamford Bridge. We only needed a draw. 

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7 minutes ago, TRon said:

 

Just hope that loss against Man U doesn't come back to bite us, but other than that we've done all we can. Conference league at the end of a nightmare season for injuries would be very sweet indeed.

It still would have meant Thursday nights at a random european club or nothing, only real difference is the quality of teams especially when the CL clubs drop in. I'm quite happy for us to play ECL and blood Miley, Anderson, Murphy etc. a bit more whilst it's also a much more winnable trophy than EL.

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Every club has ifs and buts, no point dwelling on them. It might not be entirely in our hands still but to even have the chance we do of being in Europe next season is insane considering the season that has just come to a close.

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Being on the lowest rung of the ladder will be good for Howe to learn how to deal with European football without the huge spotlight on him as it was this season. 

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12 minutes ago, kingxlnc said:

Just shows fine margins, if we’d won at Old Trafford we’d have finished 6th

 

or held on vs Everton and beaten Brighton

But them Chelsea could say if we didn't concede that 93rd minute McBurnie goal to draw at Sheff utd, or if we didn't draw at home to 10 man Burnley, or if they ref stuck with his decision and allowed the Disasi winner vs Villa etc. 

 

We haven't been in 6th long enough to think that we blew it, and 7th is still pretty good considering where we were a few weeks ago, and especially with the injuries we've had. Just gotta hope next Saturday goes as most will expect.

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Posted (edited)

I predicted 8th with the premise being that I thought Chelsea and Spurs would improve and Villa and Man United would still be in the mix. Then, all things being equal, we'd have some rough patches.

 

To finish 7th when those teams (Man United aside) did improve, all things weren't equal, and we did have some rough patches is very good. 5th and 6th were beyond our injuries, limitations, and away form, but we've beaten some serious adversity this season. Very pleased it's over and we can reset.

 

 

Edited by Kid Icarus

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8 minutes ago, mighty__mag said:

Are Chelsea Europa conference also? Or do they go Europa League if we get conference 

Europa League at the moment, but if Man U win the FA cup, Man U get the Europa League spot and Chelsea drop to Conference.

 

I think that's how it is.

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6 minutes ago, mighty__mag said:

Are Chelsea Europa conference also? Or do they go Europa League if we get conference 

 

They currently get the only Conference League place that went to the league due to the League Cup winners already having Europe. Man U losing the FA Cup gives Chelsea the Europa League place from that, bumping that only Conference League place down one spot to us. 

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Just now, Checko said:

Europa League at the moment, but if Man U win the FA cup, Man U get the Europa League spot and Chelsea drop to Conference.

 

I think that's how it is.

 

Correct.

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how many points behind MU were we a couple of months or so ago? think it was around 10? 

 

so satisfying to finally finish ahead of those jammy bastards

 

should never have been that close mind 

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18 minutes ago, mighty__mag said:

Are Chelsea Europa conference also? Or do they go Europa League if we get conference 

Chelsea get Europa League, unless Man Utd win the FA Cup, in which case they will get our Conference League place.

 

You will also notice how there will be no more mention of Chelsea not being eligible to enter Europe because of their spending now.

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This club should always be in Europe, that's my expectation. Not so bothered about what flavour of Europe.

 

7th is a very creditable finish considering the shit we've had thrown our way. I'll be surprised if we don't do better next year.

 

It's also great that we ended with a win, puts a spring in everyone's step for the summer.

 

Now it's the transfer window silly season, let the fun commence...

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8 points off 4th and 6 off 5th, in all honesty if we'd had Pope and Joelinton there for some of those games, and some rotation options off the bench in Willock/Barnes/Wilson for a handful of the games we chucked away I think we could've been at least 5th. Statistically the 4th best team in the league this year although I'd give Villa credit as they've been worthy.

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Its a miracle we finished 7th after the injuries we’ve had but i cant help but be more frustrated about Wednesday now knowing that if we didn’t bottle it we’d be in Europa. 

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9 minutes ago, Infatuation Junkie said:

Man U are 6/1 to lift the cup. Happy news.

 

Also strengthen our bench for like for like and we can comfortably get Europe next season imho

Where do you see those odds? Best I can find is 9/2. I will likely stick a tenner on it nearer the time, but hopefully it goes up.

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Even after this Titanic of a season, hitting every single fucking ice berg out there. We’ve finished only 8 points off a Champions league spot. Imo there’s absolutely no question that if we have had even just big Joe and pope fit all season, we get that 4th spot.

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I rather leave it in hands of Man City to help us secure a place in Europe than for us to face Man U in Cup Final. Less pressure and hope Pep wants to win another trophy to add to his collection

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Posted (edited)

If you could pick any team for a favour, we have a pretty good one, and it is a major cup, not like a Charity Shield, plus it is their city rivals, so they'll obviously be up for it, plus no CL final to potentially distract them either.

 

The Conference League is a bit of a football hipsters paradise and many of the sides will be league champions, albeit a lot of minnows. It'll be class potentially going to capital cities like Bratislava, Helsinki, Dublin, Nicosia etc. and there are still a handful of decent sides in.

 

Out of our hands, but it will be a bit gutting if we miss out. Next Saturday really will feel like a Newcastle match.

 

 

 

 

Edited by Paullow

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Well, we know where we finished. Here's the preseason prediction of what we would most likely need to finish 6th, and where (given relative difficulty of the games across the season) where we should expect to pick up the points.

 

image.thumb.png.d23034d24235b5a20223aedee7ffd460.png

 

Prediction was out by one. Chelsea managed 63 points. So the 62 wouldn't have been enough. For what it is worth, the 60 point we accrued for 7th is higher than the average for 7th (57.5 points).

 

Also, over the last three months we have achieved a total of 2.4 points more than usually 'required' for sixth. Whereas the 13 games between December and February killed us. We accrued 6.1pts less than required. 

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I think on balance 7th is probably where we deserved to finish and frankly represents success given the fact that for a large part of the season weve had Dubravka, Krafth, Longstaff, Miley, Anderson and Murphy starting with no decent options off the bench. 6th would have been a miracle. Tonali back next season and keeping Bruno, Isak and Gordon would do me, with a few improvements focusing on expanding the squad and getting rid of deadwood. 

 

Looking forward and optimistic about next season. The players are well coached and for the most part, achieving in excess of their individual ability. UECL (assuming we get it) will be memorable and good experience on the journey to becoming CL regulars to practice playing multiple times per week, and should be a breeze compared to the likes of PSG and Dortmund. Hopefully some kinder domestic cup draws and injuries and fatigue won't be the same problem. Plus genuinely feel that we can try and compete to win and trophy next season and hopefully at least quality for the Europa.

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