The Europeometer™ (2024/25)

[SteV]

3 minutes ago, Kaizero said:

 

Why on earth would our five previous matches have any impact on how well we'll do in our next four?  

If anything it works the other way, as if you’ve won the previous five your confidence will be up so it probably increases your chances of winning.

[The College Dropout]

A lot depends on injuries.  
At the start of the season I would’ve taken 7th. 
 

I think if we finish above Forest that will get us a CL Spot. From the teams below us only City and Villa could get 65+ points. Finish above Forest and we should be good. 
 

From here I hope we can get CL. Europa League at a minimum. Man U, Spurs are out of it.  

[54]

Just looking at our remaining fixtures, namely our home games, the following still have to come to St James Park:

 

Wolves

Bournemouth

Fulham

Nottingham Forest

Crystal Palace

Brentford

Man United

Ipswich 

Chelsea

Everton

 

There are some tough games in there, namely that Bournemouth, Fulham & Forest run, but you couldn't really ask for a better run in at home, if we can get 20-25 points from them games, it'll take us to 55-60 points, meaning we only need to get another 10 or so points away from home to get 5th. 

 

Its genuinely set up for us to get Champions League, its just whether we take it.

[Kid Icarus]

7 minutes ago, Kaizero said:

 

Why on earth would our five previous matches have any impact on how well we'll do in our next four?  

The history of winning that many games in a row actually happening. 

 

The last time we did it was 32 years ago and we brought out a video. We've never done it in the Premier League.

 

 

Edited Sunday at 19:28 by Kid Icarus

[Pata]

3 minutes ago, Kid Icarus said:

The history of winning that many games in a row actually happening. 

 

The last time we did it was 32 years ago and we brought out a video. We've never done it in the Premier League.

 

 

 

 

You're over halfway there now meaning it's a lot easier. Not making the mistake of arguing about probabilities with you again though.

[Hanshithispantz]

8 minutes ago, Kaizero said:

 

Why on earth would our five previous matches have any impact on how well we'll do in our next four?  

Law of averages init

 

Basically we could be seen to have been 'fortunate' to win 5 on the bounce as any run requires a degree of luck.

[Kilcline]

Genuinely think we'll finish 3rd or 4th, fairly comfortably aswell.

 

Without getting carried away (about to get carried away) the European spots could go down to 8th or 9th depending on who wins the cups, if Chelsea win the Conference League, and 5th is CL so we can almost take Europe as a given I think. Let's fucking go and get amongst it 💪🏻

[Pata]

1 minute ago, Hanshithispantz said:

Law of averages init

 

Basically we could be seen to have been 'fortunate' to win 5 on the bounce as any run requires a degree of luck.

 

[Hanshithispantz]

2 minutes ago, Pata said:

 

What I'm saying isn't wrong though 

 

We're not far ahead enough of Fulham, Bournemouth or Wolves for randomness not to be a fairly large part of our results against them. Southampton's new manager might tighten them up too.

 

 

Edited Sunday at 19:37 by Hanshithispantz

[Kid Icarus]

15 minutes ago, Pata said:

 

You're over halfway there now meaning it's a lot easier. Not making the mistake of arguing about probabilities with you again though.

FWIW 9 or more consecutive wins in the Premier League has happened 9 times (Man City x2, Man United x2, Liverpool x2, Arsenal, Chelsea, Spurs) across 32 years and 50 odd clubs. If we do it, it would be a historical achievement for our club. It's very rare.

 

 

Edited Sunday at 19:48 by Kid Icarus

[gazza ladra]

4 hours ago, TRon said:

 

If Man U and Spurs weren't so far behind us, I would agree. Their poor season so far has meant that teams like Brentford and Forest are up there in UEFA spots, and I'd be majorly disappointed if we don't finish ahead of them. Liverpool, Arsenal, Chelsea and Man City are the teams I think we should consider out of our league squad wise. Fifth is definitely up for grabs, and which team is in a better position than us to take it?

 

 

I agree with this, but Villa are better than either. Better players, better manager.

[Superior Acuña]

7 minutes ago, Kid Icarus said:

FWIW 9 or more consecutive wins in the Premier League has happened 9 times (Man City x2, Man United x2, Liverpool x2, Arsenal, Chelsea, Spurs) across 32 years and 50 odd clubs. If we do it, it would be a historical achievement for our club. It's very rare.

 

 

 

It is rare, but that doesn’t make us less likely to win the next 4 games because we won the last 5. Unless there’s an argument that the 5 wins exhausted us or something. 

[timeEd32]

7 minutes ago, Kid Icarus said:

FWIW 9 or more consecutive wins in the Premier League has happened 9 times (Man City x2, Man United x2, Liverpool x2, Arsenal, Chelsea, Spurs) across 32 years and 50 odd clubs. If we do it, it would be a historical achievement for our club. It's very rare.

 

 

 

No doubt it’s a big achievement. But it is not less likely now that we’ve won 5 straight. In fact, it’s more likely now than it was the day before we played Leicester. 

[Hanshithispantz]

It's not that it's less likely because we've just won 5, us winning 5 off the belt was unlikely, us winning another 4 is also unlikely.

[Mazzy]

Just now, Superior Acuña said:

It is rare, but that doesn’t make us less likely to win the next 4 games because we won the last 5. Unless there’s an argument that the 5 wins exhausted us or something. 

 

Theoretically no but say you flip a coin once the chance of getting heads are 50/50, yet if you flip it 10 times the chances of getting heads every time are 1 in 1000.  There's always some realm of luck or chance in football. 

[Kaizero]

Just now, Hanshithispantz said:

It's not that it's less likely because we've just won 5, us winning 5 off the belt was unlikely, us winning another 4 is also unlikely.

 

It's all about the phrasing I reckon. "A club winning 9 in a row is a very rare achievement and therefore us managing to do that isn't very probable" vs "Winning the next four is unlikely because we've already won five in a row" 

[54]

This discussion made me wonder what the longest win streak is, and both Man City and Liverpool got 18 consecutive wins, which is just mental

[Colos Short and Curlies]

Gained 2 points on the leaders and second place this weekend....

 

[Kid Icarus]

4 minutes ago, Superior Acuña said:

It is rare, but that doesn’t make us less likely to win the next 4 games because we won the last 5. Unless there’s an argument that the 5 wins exhausted us or something. 

 

4 minutes ago, timeEd32 said:

No doubt it’s a big achievement. But it is not less likely now that we’ve won 5 straight. In fact, it’s more likely now than it was the day before we played Leicester. 

It's not that it's less likely than before we went on this run, it's that these 4 are less likely to win as part of an extended run of 9 wins than they would have been as their own 4 game winning streaks if we'd drawn or lost against Spurs.

[Pata]

1 minute ago, Kid Icarus said:

 

It's not that it's less likely than before we went on this run, it's that these 4 are less likely to win as part of an extended run of 9 wins than they would have been as their own 4 game winning streaks if we'd drawn or lost against Spurs.

 

[Unbelievable]

I'm with Pata on this one. Mathematically previous results have no bearing on future results. In footballing terms confidence counts for a lot, so let's just say we are more likely to win the next four than we were to win the last five. Still small odds obviously, but it's not like each win makes it less likely to win the next. Just that starting from scratch you are less likely to get a n+1 games winning streak than it is to get a n games winning streak.

 

 

Edited Sunday at 20:11 by Unbelievable
Typo

[Checko]

Lets say we have an 80% chance of winning each of the next 4 games. Probably far higher than they actually are.

 

Odds of winning the next game: (0.8) 80%

Odds of winning the next 2: (0.8x0.8) = 64%

Odds of winning the next 3: (0.8x0.8x0.8) = 51.2%

Odds of winning the next 4: (0.8x0.8x0.8x0.8) = 40%

 

At 70% chance it would be 24% to win all 4

At 60% it would be 13%

 

Past performance might increase odds in that if you've won 5 on the bounce you're probably playing well and confident, so perhaps slightly increases the probability of winning the future games. But that's it. 

[Kid Icarus]

Or to phrase it another way, 9 wins in a row is obviously now more likely having won 5 already, but these upcoming 4 games are now more likely to include draws and losses based purely on how rare a 9 game winning streak is.

[midds]

Let's just settle for 10 points from the next 12? Can we agree on that?  

[Displayname]

2 minutes ago, Kid Icarus said:

Or to phrase it another way, 9 wins in a row is obviously now more likely having won 5 already, but these upcoming 4 games are now more likely to include draws and losses based purely on how rare a 9 game winning streak is.

Would you have the same thought process if we were talking about flipping coins?

 

That it would be less likely to get 4 in a row if you had 5 in a row previously?

 

 

Edited Sunday at 20:15 by Displayname