The Europeometer™ (2023/24) - permutations in O.P.

[The College Dropout]

1 hour ago, Ronaldo said:

We were 3 points off 8th last season. Given the signings of Pope, Botman, Isak etc and having Bruno all season I don’t know how you can argue that’s a ‘success’.

A lot of last season's sucess was down to that feel good factor and momentum imo.

 

That's gone now.

 

And we have about the 8-9 best squad in the league in terms of talent. 2 of the squads better than ours are out of it in West Ham & Chelsea so 7th / 8th is about par.

[80]

A key difference between last season and this season (or, more to the point, the second half of this season) is that teams are setting themselves up specifically against us. We turn up as a big threat, and their gameplan is based on countering us.

 

Last season, and to my surprise, also the first half of this season, teams didn't see us that way and it gave us the element of surprise and a clean run at them. That's why we're in a quandary now. Everything is literally harder now, which is a big compliment to our achievements so far, and it's why before this season began I was bracing for a slog akin to what we now have, even though I knew something much grander was possible.

 

Basically, we need our Bellamy and Robert moment to break this cycle, in my view. Then you'll see another explosion in our results.

[Kanji]

Just win Sunday and our season can easily turn around quicker than we realize. 

We literally just cocked up 6 points (3 wins versus 3 draws) v Leeds, West Ham and one of Palace (this is the more likely one given a few chances) or Bournemouth (we were ass here) which in reality we had more than enough chances to get that. 

A clean sheet Sunday and a proper 2 to 3 goal win with the Stadium bouncing and we’re going to be looking up and back on track. 
 

Win at all costs Sunday. It’ll happen. 

[The Prophet]

Forever the contrarian. 

[Ronaldo]

1 hour ago, 80 said:

Basically, we need our Bellamy and Robert moment to break this cycle, in my view. Then you'll see another explosion in our results.

 

[The Prophet]

Looking at a small sample size of the last five years gives a rough projection of our likely finish.

 

This season we're averaging 1.7 points per game. If we continue roughly along this path, that'll leave us on 64 points. In the last five season, that'd have you finish 6th, 7th, 5th, 7th, 6th. 

 

Since the World Cup break, we've seen a downturn to 1.2 points a game. If we continue roughly along this path, that'll leave us on 58 points, that'd have you finish 6th, 11th, 8th, 7th, 7th. 

 

Pre-World Cup break, we were averaging 2 points per game. If we were to return to this kind of form, that would see us finish on 69 points, that'd have you finish 5th, 4th, 4th, 6th, 6th. 

 

The points total for each position have ranged from: 7th 54-62, 6th 58-66, 5th 62-70, 4th 66-75.

 

Barring a team or two going on a mad run, it does appear that the points totals are going to be on the lower side of the spectrum this season. Any form of uptick from us on our post-World Cup form should guarantee some form of European football, but we're going to have to return to pre-World Cup levels to see us qualify for the Champions League.

 

Even our pre-World Cup form was patchy though. We took just 8 points from our first 7 games at 1.1 point per game, then won 7 of our next 8 at a massive 2.75 points per game. 

 

From that you could (negatively) conclude that the spell between October and December was in fact a purple patch and we're reverting to our form prior to that. Our underlying metrics have been consistently good throughout the season, so this seems unlikely.

 

Taking other data into account, it seems more accurate to conclude that our lack of quality up top means our goal scoring is subject to more variance and fine margins than the teams around us, this will in turn impact results. Essentially if we continue to play how we have for a majority of the season, the goal draught won't last forever and form will pick up at some point (changes to first eleven could help speed that up). We should therefore be confident of European football, however it comes. 

 

 

Edited March 6, 2023 by The Prophet

[Gawalls]

4 hours ago, The Prophet said:

 

Who do you have as the two clubs finishing above us? If Chelsea click, they could be dangerous, but Brighton, Fulham, Brentford, etc have as many flaws as we do and are equally susceptible to swings in form. 

I think Brighton definitely will but after that i feel it's down to our goal scoring, otherwise we'll be averaging a point a game and i think Fulham will catch us eventually.  Sort that out though and i'll be confident of anything up to 4th.  This is a season defining moment I feel with next two games and if we do what we did with Leeds and West Ham then 8th, win them then 4th - 6th just because of the confidence boost it will give.

 

 

Edited March 6, 2023 by Gawalls

[TRC]

[The College Dropout]

Brighton are a bit soft bellied imo.  The type of team to get less points than they deserve.  
 

We are a bit opposite. As long as we keep clean sheets. We’ll draw games we might otherwise lose.  

[TRC]

Just now, The College Dropout said:

Brighton are a bit soft bellied imo.  The type of team to get less points than they deserve.  
 

We are a bit opposite. As long as we keep clean sheets. We’ll draw games we might otherwise lose.  

Brighton are having the moment we had with Miggy with Mitoma, I assume he will drop off at some point and there will be some regression.

[HaydnNUFC]

Brighton are a bit overrated on here imo. They're also going to have mad fixture congestion given their FA Cup commitments.

[The College Dropout]

11 minutes ago, TRC said:

Brighton are having the moment we had with Miggy with Mitoma, I assume he will drop off at some point and there will be some regression.

Mitoma looks the real deal. He's overachieving his expected goal involvement but he looks a genuine class player the way Miggy has never to me

[The Prophet]

Brighton are a very well coached side and one of the success stories of the season. They're prone to a horrendous run every season though (usually later on). Whether that was due to Potter's coaching or other factors remains to be seen.

[TRC]

2 minutes ago, HaydnNUFC said:

Brighton are a bit overrated on here imo. They're also going to have mad fixture congestion given their FA Cup commitments.

Our game against them is massive

[HaydnNUFC]

Just now, TRC said:

Our game against them is massive

 

Will more than likely be midweek in May. They have a sizeable backlog of fixtures due to the Queen croaking it, issues with the rail strike(s) what problem that creates with fans getting to their games and FA Cup rescheduling. They're at home to Grimsby in the quarters so should get to the semis, meaning another game of theirs is getting postponed. 

[TRC]

1 minute ago, HaydnNUFC said:

 

Will more than likely be midweek in May. They have a sizeable backlog of fixtures due to the Queen croaking it, issues with the rail strike(s) what problem that creates with fans getting to their games and FA Cup rescheduling. They're at home to Grimsby in the quarters so should get to the semis, meaning another game of theirs is getting postponed. 

Likely 18/19th April

[SUPERTOON]

4 minutes ago, The Prophet said:

Brighton are a very well coached side and one of the success stories of the season. They're prone to a horrendous run every season though (usually later on). Whether that was due to Potter's coaching or other factors remains to be seen.

Think they have actually improved since De Zebri replaced Potter,they certainly score loads more but are arguably less solid at the back.

[The Prophet]

Just now, SUPERTOON said:

Think they have actually improved since De Zebri replaced Potter,they certainly score loads more but are arguably less solid at the back.

 

Aye, he was very much like that at Sassuolo. They'd have a go wherever they went, but it was sometimes their undoing. 

[Geogaddi]

It's very unlikely but it would be embarrassing to finish below Fulham mind, Brighton have a brilliant chance now to get to Wembley and will likely get distracted by that, Brentford are going to lose Toney at some point so count them out as well. I see it as us or Spurs for 5th, Liverpool are having an awful season but still better than us and Spurs.

[TRC]

5 minutes ago, Geogaddi said:

It's very unlikely but it would be embarrassing to finish below Fulham mind, Brighton have a brilliant chance now to get to Wembley and will likely get distracted by that, Brentford are going to lose Toney at some point so count them out as well. I see it as us or Spurs for 5th, Liverpool are having an awful season but still better than us and Spurs.

If Kane picks up any kind of injury then Spurs are fucked. I think he's, I know most teams losing their best player would be fucked but essentially he is Spurs.

[cubaricho]

Arsenal

City

Man U

Liverpool

Spurs

Us

 

Is about as good as it’ll get this go around I reckon. And is a pretty big achievement with this limited squad if you ask me. 

[Kanji]

38 minutes ago, The College Dropout said:

Brighton are a bit soft bellied imo.  The type of team to get less points than they deserve.  
 

We are a bit opposite. As long as we keep clean sheets. We’ll draw games we might otherwise lose.  

 

I've never seen a more lucky side than Brighton tbh. Always getting penalties, always somehow getting the worst of the "big" sides where top players for those big sides have fucking mares and mistakes galore. Always seem to play one of them when they are complete piss. It's fucking annoying. 

[The College Dropout]

35 minutes ago, Kanji said:

 

I've never seen a more lucky side than Brighton tbh. Always getting penalties, always somehow getting the worst of the "big" sides where top players for those big sides have fucking mares and mistakes galore. Always seem to play one of them when they are complete piss. It's fucking annoying. 

Nah. We were lucky to get a point. Fulham got a smash and grab.

 

Mitoma is the tricky winger type like Zaha. He's the type of player to win fouls in the box.

[alexf]

55 minutes ago, Kanji said:

 

I've never seen a more lucky side than Brighton tbh. Always getting penalties, always somehow getting the worst of the "big" sides where top players for those big sides have fucking mares and mistakes galore. Always seem to play one of them when they are complete piss. It's fucking annoying. 

I think that is bit unfair. That was like when certain teams fans were saying the same about us first half of the season. They are where they are on merit as were we. They have recruited good players and have a style of play that causes teams problems. 

[Consortium of one]

from our position earlier to not qualify for Europe at all would be extremely disappointing.  Top four is slipping away and with out a glut of goals I can't see us making Champions League.  Someone needs to start getting hot be it Isak or Wilson and we need some others to chip in as well.  Defensively we're still sound but a lack of scoring will take it's toll on the squad mentally.