Pata Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 25 minutes ago, Paullow said: I was mainly looking at our respective goals conceded in the past 2 years, last season after 24 games we had only conceded 17 (and it was only 13 after 22 games, but conceded 2 vs Liverpool and then Man City), by far the lowest in the league at that stage, but this season we've already conceded 39, and only 7 teams have conceded more. Just looked and our expected goals against last season was 27 after 24 games so we had ran really good and Pope had been sensational. This season expected goals against is at 41, it's still a clear increase but doesn't look quite as bad. Looking at this seasons expected points on Understat and we (-3.68 points) are pretty much even with Villa at fifth place, fighting for 4th place with them and Chelsea. Spurs (+11.52 points), Man United unsurprisingly (+10.00 points), West Ham (+7.81 points), Liverpool (+7.63 points) and Villa (+6.28 points) have been really lucky so far. Everton are seventh without the deduction well ahead of Brighton, Tottenham, West Ham and Man United. Looking at that data and we've been really unlucky this season on the basis that our main rivals have all been running really good and being quite lucky while we are having a tougher season even without taking into account all the injury problems. Just confirms to me that judging Howe based on this season is not fair on him and he has a clean slate to start the 24/25 season. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
TRon Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 3 hours ago, Optimistic Nut said: I'm thinking 7th, but if Man U fancy beating Villa just to help us dream of closing 5th down a bit then I'm all for it. It's nice to dream but with Hojlund scoring goals for Man U, I think it's more important we stay ahead of them than look too far ahead. Top 5 is unlikely due to the massive gap the teams have built up in those CL positions, and we still don't have enough midfielders or strikers to string together a run of 6 or 7 wins on the bounce to close it. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matt1892 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Our run in isn’t too bad at all, we should be looking to win 10 of the remaining games if we sort ourselves out. 6th should be the target but we need others to fall apart if we want 5th. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
The College Dropout Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 No European football means spurs won’t fall apart. Going out the FA Cup helps Villa imo. A deep run in the conference though could help with a collapse. But I just don’t see a collapse. And I don’t see us sorting out our defensive frailties enough to go on a big run. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geogaddi Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 (edited) Think it will be a shootout between us and Man United for 6th. We need to forget about Spurs and Villa this season. Edited February 11 by Geogaddi Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
M1tche Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 The Man U and Tottenham game are key for where we finish, beat Tottenham and Draw at Man U and I think that leaves us with a good chance of 5th tbh. Both Villa and Tottenham have the top 3 play, plus each other. We only have Arsenal (after they play in europe) and Tottenham at home. We have players coming back, and are just getting a good run of results together. Its time for a late charge. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
vexred Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 I feel dirty cheering for Villa. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lush Vlad Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 12 minutes ago, vexred said: I feel dirty cheering for Villa. I don’t. They’re playing Man U. Even after all the shit with them over the years. I’m never cheering for Man U over anyone. Unless they’re playing sunderland or it’s for a result that massively helps us. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisJbarnes Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 West Ham and Brighton (H) are the big games and if we win them both or avoid defeat we should be most likely to finish 7th. Tottenham (H) and Chelsea (A) as well ones to win or at least avoid defeat. With some of the hardest fixtures already played and a few important players to come back, and no European football to slow us down in the league, we should in principle manage 7th without hitting the same heights as last season in our final 14 games. To finish 6th and above Man United as they look to be finding form is a tall order with the amount of players out, but not impossible. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Optimistic Nut Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Let's ramp the pressure up next week. Fulham away is an awkward as fuck fixture for Villa on the little run they're on, us at home to Bournemouth who have had a little dip. Fuck it, I'm back in. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ikon Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 12 minutes ago, Optimistic Nut said: Let's ramp the pressure up next week. Fulham away is an awkward as fuck fixture for Villa on the little run they're on, us at home to Bournemouth who have had a little dip. Fuck it, I'm back in. Aye mate. Villa might start to feel the pressure properly. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
M1tche Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 As much as I dislike Man U, anything other than a Villa win was ok for us. 10 to Villa who look to very much be on the wobble and 5 to Man U, who we can beat. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geordie Ahmed Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 I think overturning a 10 point defecit needs a lot to go right with very little margin which is why I wanted a Villa win Man U are 5 ahead of us and seeing how jammy they are I'm not sure we'll catch them They concede big chances, don't create that many big chances but find themselves sitting in 6th Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lush Vlad Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 I’m wondering if we can make up 5 points on Man U and people think we’re going to catch Villa who are 10 clear?! Would much rather that was a draw or Villa win there. We’re still not playing particularly well and look wide open every week. The stats back that up and it doesn’t seem like Willock or Anderson returning are going to suddenly change that. Pope probably not back until late March/April and all. I just can’t see us going on a big run of wins the way the team is currently. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
gjohnson Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 1 hour ago, Lush Vlad said: I don’t. They’re playing Man U. Even after all the shit with them over the years. I’m never cheering for Man U over anyone. Unless they’re playing sunderland or it’s for a result that massively helps us. I'm a kid of 95-97....ill never want anything other than Man U to lose. Don't care who they're playing...its about time they had some misery of no trophies or achievements Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Optimistic Nut Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 4 minutes ago, Lush Vlad said: I’m wondering if we can make up 5 points on Man U and people think we’re going to catch Villa who are 10 clear?! Would much rather that was a draw or Villa win there. We’re still not playing particularly well and look wide open every week. The stats back that up and it doesn’t seem like Willock or Anderson returning are going to suddenly change that. Pope probably not back until late March/April and all. I just can’t see us going on a big run of wins the way the team is currently. Have to dream though surely? Likelihood is at best we'll stumble along to 7th but if you can't look at a 10 point gap over a team who are beginning to stutter a bit, then what's the point? Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
STM Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Momentum is the thing.Villa are sliding. Man Utd are climbing and we are one more win from possibly finding similar momentum. However, as much as its nice to look at the possibilities.... we really just have to do our own job. I'm convinced Villa won't finish top 4 now. Which further solidifies what a superb job we did last year. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lush Vlad Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Just now, Optimistic Nut said: Have to dream though surely? Likelihood is at best we'll stumble along to 7th but if you can't look at a 10 point gap over a team who are beginning to stutter a bit, then what's the point? I think there is more chance of Villa getting back on track. Than Man U suddenly becoming a dominant team. One is 10 ahead and the other only 5. So that’s the way I’m looking at it. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
M1tche Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 2 minutes ago, Lush Vlad said: I’m wondering if we can make up 5 points on Man U and people think we’re going to catch Villa who are 10 clear?! Would much rather that was a draw or Villa win there. We’re still not playing particularly well and look wide open every week. The stats back that up and it doesn’t seem like Willock or Anderson returning are going to suddenly change that. Pope probably not back until late March/April and all. I just can’t see us going on a big run of wins the way the team is currently. Us not playing that well I'd done to being short of numbers, when a few more come back, the performances will get better (although we were pretty good at Villa not long ago). Both Man U and Villa are pretty much full strength and don't look any better than us. If we beat Man U. We then only need 2 more points than them over the the rest ofnthe game to finish about them, not the hardest task. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Optimistic Nut Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 I still think 5th would get CL tbh. Not even looking at 4th, but 5th has potential if we could go on a run. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
gjohnson Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 1 minute ago, Optimistic Nut said: Have to dream though surely? Likelihood is at best we'll stumble along to 7th but if you can't look at a 10 point gap over a team who are beginning to stutter a bit, then what's the point? There 48 points to play for. Whatever we get out of them is where we deserve to be Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
RodneyCisse Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 1 minute ago, Optimistic Nut said: I still think 5th would get CL tbh. Not even looking at 4th, but 5th has potential if we could go on a run. I was thinking about this before, the + goal difference section is often an indicator over a season who finishes where. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
timeEd32 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Villa have won two games since Dec. 22, both against promoted sides D - Sheff Utd L - Man Utd W - Burnley D - Everton L - Newcastle W - Sheff Utd L - Man Utd Their next three games are huge - Fulham (a), Forest (h), Luton (a). After that they have 11 games left that includes City, Arsenal, Spurs, Liverpool, Chelsea, West Ham, Brighton. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kid Icarus Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 (edited) 12 minutes ago, Lush Vlad said: I’m wondering if we can make up 5 points on Man U and people think we’re going to catch Villa who are 10 clear?! Would much rather that was a draw or Villa win there. We’re still not playing particularly well and look wide open every week. The stats back that up and it doesn’t seem like Willock or Anderson returning are going to suddenly change that. Pope probably not back until late March/April and all. I just can’t see us going on a big run of wins the way the team is currently. All about context though innit. Villa are in poor form, imo aren't as good as their position suggests, and could potentially have been finally found out a bit. There's the possibility that they come within touching distance providing we hit some form. Whereas Man United are shite, but fairly consistent with their results and have been consistently jammy for a really long time now. We've never finished above Man United in premier league history. Edited February 11 by Kid Icarus Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
gjohnson Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 We were within a point or two of top 5 or 6 a few games ago. Any team can go on a bad run and suddenly be way behind. The season ends when it ends, and until its mathematically possible we could still end as champions. Yes it's not going to happen but until its done, its not done Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
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