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The Europeometer™ (2023/24) - permutations in O.P.


Rich

The TopFourometer™ (2023/24)  

619 members have voted

  1. 1. How likely are we to finish top four this season? 0 = nee chance, 5 = can’t call it, 10 = nailed on marra



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A few hours ago I fancied us for 6th or 7th. Not anymore - it's not just that we've dropped 2 points in that race, but that was based on me thinking the Villa win was the start of us getting back to what we were earlier/last season. Clearly not. Probably 8-9th.

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This update is for end of January, so doesn’t include today’s game. Basically despite disappointing run, win at Villa means we are only 3 points behind expected points return for a sixth place finish (difficulty of games and home away etc., over course of season, taken into account). We now have 1 point from required six to get in February. We’ll need to win all three (or two wins and a draw is pretty damn close) remaining February games to get back on track, but we don’t need to catch-up in just one month. 
 

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1 hour ago, Superior Acuña said:

A few hours ago I fancied us for 6th or 7th. Not anymore - it's not just that we've dropped 2 points in that race, but that was based on me thinking the Villa win was the start of us getting back to what we were earlier/last season. Clearly not. Probably 8-9th.

Same here, thought we were gonna start picking up form and momentum, gutted tbh

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So is this right regarding european spots:

 

If England gets the extra CL spot and Liverpool win the LC: 1st-5th get CL, 6-7th EL, 8th ECL

 

If England gets the extra CL spot and Chelsea win the LC: 1st-5th get CL, 6th EL, 7th ECL

 

If England does not get the extra CL spot and Liverpool win the LC: 1st-4th get CL, 5-6th EL, 7th ECL

 

If England does not get the extra CL spot and Chelsea win the LC: 1st-4th get CL, 5th get EL, 6th ECL

 

All the above assuming Chelsea do not finish in the top 8 of course.

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21 minutes ago, Beth said:

So is this right regarding european spots:

 

If England gets the extra CL spot and Liverpool win the LC: 1st-5th get CL, 6-7th EL, 8th ECL

 

If England gets the extra CL spot and Chelsea win the LC: 1st-5th get CL, 6th EL, 7th ECL

 

If England does not get the extra CL spot and Liverpool win the LC: 1st-4th get CL, 5-6th EL, 7th ECL

 

If England does not get the extra CL spot and Chelsea win the LC: 1st-4th get CL, 5th get EL, 6th ECL

 

All the above assuming Chelsea do not finish in the top 8 of course.

I believe so. 

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8th always felt like our only realistic aim for me left over this season. To sneek into conference league and have some form of Europe next year. 

 

Even that is looking a challenge now however. We just can't seem to get any luck regarding players. Feels like every single time without fail if a player comes back we lose another. This time looks like possibly two in and two out with Isak and Gordon for Barnes and Wilson. 

 

Not to mention the looming Bruno suspension. 

 

I just don't see us going on a sustained run unless we get legs back into midfield. 

 

Our back 4 and mid 3 have to be some of the slowest in the league and it is reeking havoc on our ability to play the way Howe wants. 

 

He can mitigate this slightly if he tweaked tactics and by bringing Tino back into the back 4 but I just don't see us putting the necessary results together to finish any higher than 8th at best. 

 

 

Edited by alexf

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14 minutes ago, duo said:

I was hoping we could sneak 5th but no chance now

I think 6th is the very best we can hope for now, but 7th-8th is looking likely. I wouldn't mind being in the conference league, but use it as a run out for fringe players unless we get to the quarter finals or beyond.

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so highest imo we can finish is 6th and even for that we need to better than all of WHU, Brighton, Man Utd and Chelsea simple as that. good fucking luck with that as we have no consistency at all given we follow up a great Villa win with a Luton draw.

we should have gone on a run beating Villa, Luton get  result at Forest away then rip apart Bournemouth before going into some crunch games with Arsenal, Chelsea, Wolves in about 3-4 weeks time.

 

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I understand why it's different, but if someone had said 4 points from Villa away and Luton at home, you'd still think of that as a brilliant return. 

 

No team with the injury woes we've had this season would make top 4, but despite everything I think I'd count top 7 as a successful season in the circumstances, albeit still an unbelievably frustrating one with some classic moments scattered about.

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2 hours ago, Beth said:

So is this right regarding european spots:

 

If England gets the extra CL spot and Liverpool win the LC: 1st-5th get CL, 6-7th EL, 8th ECL

 

If England gets the extra CL spot and Chelsea win the LC: 1st-5th get CL, 6th EL, 7th ECL

 

If England does not get the extra CL spot and Liverpool win the LC: 1st-4th get CL, 5-6th EL, 7th ECL

 

If England does not get the extra CL spot and Chelsea win the LC: 1st-4th get CL, 5th get EL, 6th ECL

 

All the above assuming Chelsea do not finish in the top 8 of course.

 

Depends on the FA Cup too, right?

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30 minutes ago, timeEd32 said:

 

 

Depends on the FA Cup too, right?

Yes, but it's almost certain the winner of that will be one of the top six anyway.

 

Looks like ultimately the Tonali fiasco may be the deciding factor in missing out on europe.

 

 

Edited by Beth

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25 minutes ago, Beth said:

Yes, but it's almost certain the winner of that will be one of the top six anyway.

 

Looks like ultimately the Tonali fiasco may be the deciding factor in missing out on europe.

 

 

 

To be fair, even taking account of an unexpected season long ban for a big signing, the catastrophic amount of injuries we have had will be the determining factor for a lower than a realistically expected finishing position. 

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4 minutes ago, Coffee_Johnny said:

To be fair, even taking account of an unexpected season long ban for a big signing, the catastrophic amount of injuries we have had will be the determining factor for a lower than a realistically expected finishing position. 

 

We've had a massively depleted squad for three months now. Over-playing the same 11 every game was always going to catch up eventually.

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1 hour ago, aa5773 said:

Well, I dont think the owner would be pleased with other than top 6 finish and/or a trophy this season.

I dont get this. Our squad is perhaps just about top 6-7 material. But nor with half the team out. Winning a trophy is a big ask anyway. Think they knew we will drop a bit and bounce back next year. 

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