NUFC Transfer Rumours

[BoSelecta]

Trippier is off to Saudi in the summer if you believe the whispers, we should get Firmino money for him at least. 

[cubaricho]

What does selling a Bruno look like for us FFP wise? ie: does one Bruno sale let us get something like three or four 30-50m level players?

[toon25]

Have to get the deadwood off the books sooner or later

[ponsaelius]

31 minutes ago, BoSelecta said:

Trippier is off to Saudi in the summer if you believe the whispers, we should get Firmino money for him at least. 

 

Firmino went on a free, so that wouldn't be much use

[PauloGeordio]

4 minutes ago, ponsaelius said:

 

Firmino went on a free, so that wouldn't be much use

[The Prophet]

Bloody whispers.

[Joe1984]

1 hour ago, PauloGeordio said:

Fuck Financial Play! 

Or Fuck Fair Play.  Take your pick really...

[kingxlnc]

I think Almiron will be the ASM style departure this summer, in that he’s got good pedigree and will go at least what ASM went for. No one else expendable apart from perhaps Targett or Longstaff or Wilson is worth that, and I think Howe likes the localness of Longstaff and the past history with Wilson. I’d rather get rid of Murphy over Almiron but can’t see who would buy him, plus the NUFC supporter factor is quite strong at the club and perhaps worth keeping where possible. 
 

the no brainers, Ritchie Dummett Manquillo Hendrick Hayden should all drop off too

[Super Duper Branko Strupar]

2 hours ago, ponsaelius said:

 

Firmino went on a free, so that wouldn't be much use

 

 

[TheBrownBottle]

3 hours ago, cubaricho said:

What does selling a Bruno look like for us FFP wise? ie: does one Bruno sale let us get something like three or four 30-50m level players?

If Bruno went for £100m, then yes, comfortably - it would mean a net of around £80m in that financial year, so allowing for £20m added to the wage bill, you’re be looking at three Isak-costing signings able to made at a minimum.

 

The problem comes in future years; due to amortisation, your income has to keep up with costs in future years.  So you either sell for big money again (a la Spurs) or you need to grow revenue year on year.  

[AyeDubbleYoo]

One of those signings, or maybe the value of two, would need to be a Bruno replacement of course. 

[aussiemag]

If you sold a player for 100 million pounds, for example Bruno. We paid 35 million for him and hes been here 2.5 years in Summer. So we still have to account for 17.5 million towards FFP. 

So 100-17.5 = 82.5 million of direct funds towards FFP.  Plus 160,000 pounds per week for 4 more years. So another 33.3 mill over the remainder of his contract. 
So you have 124 mill to spend on transfer fees and wages for new players, over a total of 5 years. Obviously you can spend more if you expect revenues to further increase. 

Any player of Isak, Botman, Tonali ilk will want 120000 per year. That's 30 mill on wages for a player. So for 2 players, thats leaving 64 mill for transfer fees (32 mill each). It doesnt always go a long way. 

If you expect revenue to increase say 10 mill per year, you can increase those transfer fees by another 50 mill. Hopefully this makes sense. 
 

[TheBrownBottle]

1 hour ago, aussiemag said:

If you sold a player for 100 million pounds, for example Bruno. We paid 35 million for him and hes been here 2.5 years in Summer. So we still have to account for 17.5 million towards FFP. 

So 100-17.5 = 82.5 million of direct funds towards FFP.  Plus 160,000 pounds per week for 4 more years. So another 33.3 mill over the remainder of his contract. 
So you have 124 mill to spend on transfer fees and wages for new players, over a total of 5 years. Obviously you can spend more if you expect revenues to further increase. 

Any player of Isak, Botman, Tonali ilk will want 120000 per year. That's 30 mill on wages for a player. So for 2 players, thats leaving 64 mill for transfer fees (32 mill each). It doesnt always go a long way. 

If you expect revenue to increase say 10 mill per year, you can increase those transfer fees by another 50 mill. Hopefully this makes sense. 
 

Bruno’s FFP would be £14m remaining amortisation - it is by FY, not half years.

 

£120k pw is £6m per year, not £30m.  If you meant £12m, then that’s £230k pw, which is more than £50k more than our highest earner.

 

In terms of selling Bruno, there would be a profit of £86m, and c.£10m off the wage bill.  So £100m in that year.

 

Transfers are amortised, so say you buy three players for £80m over a five year contract.  That’s £48m in fees per year.  Plus wages of say £200k pw all in - each.  That’s £31.5m.  So with the sale of Bruno you could buy three £80m players.  
 

The sale of one big player goes a looong way. 

 

 

Edited January 10 by TheBrownBottle

[TheBrownBottle]

The gamble is that you can keep up the revenue increases to match future FFP requirements - buying top rank footballers gives you a greater chance of success and more commercial revenues.  The danger is if you buy flops, it becomes difficult to claw back from your overcommitted FFP position.

 

This is where Chelsea could run into trouble in the next couple of years. 

[Nucasol]

Just now, TheBrownBottle said:

The gamble is that you can keep up the revenue increases to match future FFP requirements - buying top rank footballers gives you a greater chance of success and more commercial revenues.  The danger is if you buy flops, it becomes difficult to claw back from your overcommitted FFP position.

 

This is where Chelsea could run into trouble in the next couple of years. 

Here’s hoping. Fernandez, Caicedo, Fofana, Cucarella and Mudryk looks a chunky portion of £400+m of transfer fees alone pissed away.

[Optimistic Nut]

Do Accountants' wages go towards FFP because it am absolute headache working it out.

[r0cafella]

23 minutes ago, Optimistic Nut said:

Do Accountants' wages go towards FFP because it am absolute headache working it out.

You will get the hang of it, it’s just the practice of spreading the cost over the length of the contract capped at 5 years. 

[Nucasol]

1 minute ago, r0cafella said:

You will get the hang of it, it’s just the practice of spreading the cost over the length of the contract capped at 5 years. 

Wouldn’t surprise me if someone like Deloitte’s sports finance practice has already developed a model for FFP calculation. I’d have gone all out day 1 to develop that and flog it around the various clubs and leagues if based in that division of my respective firm.

[Boey_Jarton]

4 minutes ago, Nucasol said:

Wouldn’t surprise me if someone like Deloitte’s sports finance practice has already developed a model for FFP calculation. I’d have gone all out day 1 to develop that and flog it around the various clubs and leagues if based in that division of my respective firm.

You are probably right.

 

What usually happens on problems like this  is a company will buy some bespoke modelling tool for lots of money and which integrates with their financial ledger and which outputs lots of flashy charts that look good for the monthly reports. 

 

After a few months the financial controller will realise it doesn't quite work or is not flexible enough, and so instead resorts to a manual spreadsheet that he or she is comfortable with. 

 

 

[Nucasol]

22 minutes ago, Boey_Jarton said:

You are probably right.

 

What usually happens on problems like this  is a company will buy some bespoke modelling tool for lots of money and which integrates with their financial ledger and which outputs lots of flashy charts that look good for the monthly reports. 

 

After a few months the financial controller will realise it doesn't quite work or is not flexible enough, and so instead resorts to a manual spreadsheet that he or she is comfortable with. 

 

 

As night follows day!

[r0cafella]

43 minutes ago, Nucasol said:

Wouldn’t surprise me if someone like Deloitte’s sports finance practice has already developed a model for FFP calculation. I’d have gone all out day 1 to develop that and flog it around the various clubs and leagues if based in that division of my respective firm.

Oh don’t worry, we will definitely know internally exactly how much Lee way we have. Any external model can only be estimates at any rate given most of the real time data is only known by the club. 
 

Im sure our head of finance is aware of this too. 

[Nucasol]

6 minutes ago, r0cafella said:

Oh don’t worry, we will definitely know internally exactly how much Lee way we have. Any external model can only be estimates at any rate given most of the real time data is only known by the club. 
 

Im sure our head of finance is aware of this too. 

Given Lee Charnley’s remit was bean counting this is one area where we may have actually spent money. Then again, Sports Direct had the firmest hand on the tiller so it was likely some £25k a year analyst’s spreadsheet, formulas and vlookups pinning the whole thing together. Waiting for the first FFP EUCA fuck up to work it’s way into the paper.

[Rod]

47 minutes ago, Boey_Jarton said:

You are probably right.

 

What usually happens on problems like this  is a company will buy some bespoke modelling tool for lots of money and which integrates with their financial ledger and which outputs lots of flashy charts that look good for the monthly reports. 

 

After a few months the financial controller will realise it doesn't quite work or is not flexible enough, and so instead resorts to a manual spreadsheet that he or she is comfortable with. 

 

 

Are Chelsea using the bespoke tool called Horizon?

[r0cafella]

18 minutes ago, Nucasol said:

Given Lee Charnley’s remit was bean counting this is one area where we may have actually spent money. Then again, Sports Direct had the firmest hand on the tiller so it was likely some £25k a year analyst’s spreadsheet, formulas and vlookups pinning the whole thing together. Waiting for the first FFP EUCA fuck up to work it’s way into the paper.

Haha, we didn’t even need one during Ashley’s reign. We should have been booted out of the league for not trying to be honest. 
 

To be honest, the calculations involved aren’t all that complicated and wouldn’t need more than excel. The biggest issue we face as fans are we in the dark and lack the specifics to calculate ourselves. 
 

Im sure @Colos Short and Curlieswould know more than me though. 

[black_n_white]

The fact you have to sell your best assets in order to buy just shows how fucked up FFP is. The take one step back two steps forward doesn’t always work. Top of my head, West Ham and Villa are two clubs who have navigated it well though.