NUFC Transfer Rumours

[Shearergol]

3 minutes ago, AyeDubbleYoo said:

 

That's not the question at all, that's just comparing past signings. 

 

Whilst at the same time ignoring the massive inflation of transfer fees over the last year or two.

 

I still find it weird how we got Bruno so cheap though.

[Holmesy]

1 hour ago, Coffee_Johnny said:

You are becoming very, errr, entertaining, Holmesy. 

Thanks bud, i aim to please.

[Fak]

2 hours ago, Holmesy said:

And we've achieved what exactly, apart from going backwards?
Bournemouth and Brentford are above us in the league and play better football than us, having spent a hell of a lot less. Brighton haven't the best season but no one can deny their scouting and acquisition model has been a success

 

Would you prefer to be Brighton or us?

 

Do you think Bournemouth or Brentford would be has high up in the table if they had played the more games than anybody else in the top 5 European leagues?

[Holmesy]

1 hour ago, Smal said:

Brighton’s model is collapsing or at best it has a very limited ceiling. They’re now at the point where they’re not really finding players who are good enough - or will ever be good enough - to play at the level required to progress.

 

Watson 12m - loaned out

Coppola 12m - loaned out

Gruda 28m - loaned out

O’Reilly 25m - loaned out

Osman 15m - loaned out

Cashin 7m - loaned out

Yalcouye 5m - loaned out

Tzimas 25m - no starts now injured 

Barco 8m - sold small loss

Buonanotte 5m - loaned out

Adingra 10m - profit 

Enciso 5m - profit

Igor Julio 15m - loaned out

 

They will turn/have turned a profit on some of these but that is the scope of their success.

 

Absolutely nothing model that we should only look to replicate if we’re wanting to finish consistently mid-table alongside them.

 

edit: the truth is that if you want reliably PL quality signings then you will need to be spending £40m a pop.

 

 

 

That's really just shaping the situation to fit your argument. No one is suggesting we try to sign the same players Brighton would sign. We have bigger budgets and loftier ambitions, and you could argue the only really they're not unearthing as many gems is because many clubs have already followed their model.
What people, including me, are suggesting is that we apply a similar approach to finding and unearthing gems that can develop under us, using data and a wider scouting network, rather than signing expensive PL-experienced players ie, more Brunos and Tonalis, fewer Elangas and Ramseys.

[nufcjmc]

4 minutes ago, Shearergol said:

 

Whilst at the same time ignoring the massive inflation of transfer fees over the last year or two.

 

I still find it weird how we got Bruno so cheap though.

From what I recall the way the media spun it was a category of player on a list of clubs but not at the top maybe it an aspect of them as a player unknown? or too high a risk to punt on the fee quoted. Was it not reported at one point isak was on a maybe list with arsenal before we got him?

 

Its all well and good to want to find these players who the big teams dont snap up but not so easy to develop a strategy around it as we also don't want to be the selling/stepping stone club either.

 

I would ideally like is to do both more punts every year who may only ever be squad options/ rotation or view to shop window sell and also a healthy chunk of any spend and budget on immediate 1st team improvements. 

[Shays Given Tim Flowers]

26 minutes ago, Shearergol said:

 

Whilst at the same time ignoring the massive inflation of transfer fees over the last year or two.

 

I still find it weird how we got Bruno so cheap though.

Think that was sat up for one of those if the offer comes in you can go type of deals. Swear his buyout was leaked heavily and seemingly a transfer strategy was predicated on his clause being activated. 

[Holmesy]

37 minutes ago, Optimistic Nut said:

 

Brighton have a few exceptions (mainly the ones sold to Chelsea), but Wissa & Kerkez for example have went from these clubs to CL clubs and failed. Maybe they go to Brentford & Bournemouth for a reason?

Bournemouth have just signed 19 year old Rayan from Vasco and he looks class - exactly the type of player we should be scouting and signing IMO. They signed him with the money they got for Semenyo, who is currently tearing shit up at Man City. Unfortunately, Kerkez is exactly the type of player i'd expect us to be linked with these days (pre-Liverpool).
They also signed Justin Kluivert, Evanilson, Dean Huijsen, Ilya Zabarnyi and i'm sure there are others - their scouts are quietly unearthing talented youngsters and players who are making an impact at PL level while playing good football.
 

[stozo]

Just now, Holmesy said:

Bournemouth have just signed 19 year old Rayan from Vasco and he looks class - exactly the type of player we should be scouting and signing IMO. They signed him with the money they got for Semenyo, who is currently tearing shit up at Man City. Unfortunately, Kerkez is exactly the type of player i'd expect us to be linked with these days (pre-Liverpool).
They also signed Justin Kluivert, Evanilson, Dean Huijsen, Ilya Zabarnyi and i'm sure there are others - their scouts are quietly unearthing talented youngsters and players who are making an impact at PL level while playing good football.
 

Firstly, let's not judge Rayan off a tiny sample of games. Woltemade looked a world beater after a similar number of games. 

You've managed to name five players - one of whom, Kluivert, has only 2 goals this season. Let's look at the rest. Luis Sinisterra - average. Unal - average. Diakite - average. Tyler Adams - average. Romain Favre - total bust. 

The above exemplifies the risks of that model - you buy a bunch of 'gems', some work out, but some do not. 

[Holmesy]

14 minutes ago, Fak said:

 

Would you prefer to be Brighton or us?

 

Do you think Bournemouth or Brentford would be has high up in the table if they had played the more games than anybody else in the top 5 European leagues?

Give the way both clubs are run, I imagine they would probably have anticipated the increasing number of games and put actions in place to ensure the squads could handle it. They are both very well run clubs, something I don't think many of us would say about our lot over the past couple of years.

Would I rather be Brighton or us is a moronic question. But tbh, I would rather be us but be run more like Brighton (and no, not signing the players they do but have their scouting intelligence, structure and succession planning models).

[stozo]

1 minute ago, Holmesy said:

Give the way both clubs are run, I imagine they would probably have anticipated the increasing number of games and put actions in place to ensure the squads could handle it. They are both very well run clubs, something I don't think many of us would say about our lot over the past couple of years.

Would I rather be Brighton or us is a moronic question. But tbh, I would rather be us but be run more like Brighton (and no, not signing the players they do but have their scouting intelligence, structure and succession planning models).

I think the point is it's very hard to scale Brighton's model above a certain level. You reach a point where 'smart' hits the limit of competing against teams with enormous budgets. Our 'hidden gems' are also the 'hidden gems' that the Big 6 want. It's very well reported that both Khusanov and Leoni were targets in the past 18 months - both got snapped up by Big 6 clubs with deeper pockets and similar levels of smarts. 

[Holmesy]

23 minutes ago, stozo said:

Firstly, let's not judge Rayan off a tiny sample of games. Woltemade looked a world beater after a similar number of games. 

You've managed to name five players - one of whom, Kluivert, has only 2 goals this season. Let's look at the rest. Luis Sinisterra - average. Unal - average. Diakite - average. Tyler Adams - average. Romain Favre - total bust. 

The above exemplifies the risks of that model - you buy a bunch of 'gems', some work out, but some do not. 

Bournemouth have one of the smallest turnovers in the PL yet manage to sign some truly excellent players. It's inevitable that some of their first team and squad will be average. They generally sign well, spend well, sell well and punch above their weight.

The risk of their model is lower than the risk of ours. If Rayan turns out not to be good enough, they've spent £28m and can probably recoup most of that. If he does well, they'll probably triple their money.
Do you think we'll ever see £55m for Elanga if we decide to sell him? Or £43m for Ramsey? And do we seriously think either of them will help us consistently break into the league's top 4?
 

 

 

Edited March 9 by Holmesy

[Holmesy]

4 minutes ago, stozo said:

I think the point is it's very hard to scale Brighton's model above a certain level. You reach a point where 'smart' hits the limit of competing against teams with enormous budgets. Our 'hidden gems' are also the 'hidden gems' that the Big 6 want. It's very well reported that both Khusanov and Leoni were targets in the past 18 months - both got snapped up by Big 6 clubs with deeper pockets and similar levels of smarts. 

So, do you think the answer is to sign players from the next rung down, at inflated PL prices? Or do you think we should be doing something different? Because that's the crux of the whole argument.

[stozo]

12 minutes ago, Holmesy said:

That's one of the worst responses i've read in a while but i'll humour you - Bournemouth have one of the smallest turnovers in the PL yet manage to sign some truly excellent players. It's inevitable that some of their first team and squad will be average. They generally sign well, spend well, sell well and punch above their weight.

The risk of their model is lower than the risk of ours. If Rayan turns out not to be good enough, they've spent £28m and can probably recoup most of that. If he does well, they'll probably triple their money.
Do you think we'll ever see £55m for Elanga if we decide to sell him? Or £43m for Ramsey? Do we seriously think either of them will help us consistently break into the league's top 4?
 

But you've also explained why Bournemouth do not compete.

The reason we have bought Elanga for £55m and Ramsey for £43m is because they are 23 and 24 when signed respectively. The aim is not resale value immediately. It's develop them as players to help us compete in the long term. Ramsey certainly looks like he could be handy in a CL competing squad - he's done that at Villa and has shown real promise in the past month here. Elanga is obviously some way behind but seems to be improving every game. People are frustrated because we've performed less well this season but ultimately that's because we ended up in a bad situation with Isak, not that our model is broke. Actually, if you look at the past window aside (I genuinely think it's too early to judge any of them), I don't think we've had a real bust transfer under Howe? 

[Holmesy]

4 minutes ago, stozo said:

But you've also explained why Bournemouth do not compete.

The reason we have bought Elanga for £55m and Ramsey for £43m is because they are 23 and 24 when signed respectively. The aim is not resale value immediately. It's develop them as players to help us compete in the long term. Ramsey certainly looks like he could be handy in a CL competing squad - he's done that at Villa and has shown real promise in the past month here. Elanga is obviously some way behind but seems to be improving every game. People are frustrated because we've performed less well this season but ultimately that's because we ended up in a bad situation with Isak, not that our model is broke. Actually, if you look at the past window aside (I genuinely think it's too early to judge any of them), I don't think we've had a real bust transfer under Howe? 

I don’t think there’s anyone in our fanbase, wider football or the media that thinks we had a good transfer window. Arguing otherwise is strange to say the least. We spent £100m on two supposed first-team ready players to bolster the numbers and improve us. Neither have done that.

 
I admire your positive stance on the matter and I obviously hope both develop, but the way top level football is these days, most players have done their developing by 22/23. 
Eddie might be able to coach more out of them, but if they’re not first team ready now, it begs the question, why spend £100m on them when we could have signed equivalent, younger players that need development from elsewhere for probably half that? Back to the original point.

Maybe we expected them to be better than they are but again, that bolsters the argument for better and wider scouting. 

 

Hopefully we’ve learned our lesson and it doesn’t happen again. 

[jonny1403]

3 hours ago, Holmesy said:

You've seen what Bournemouth, Brentford and Brighton have done by scouting outside of the PL, right?
We can't shop at the top table - the cartel clubs just hoover up the best PL players. We need to stop signing the next tier down because they're PL-experienced, and start taking chances on players from other leagues/countries. There's a reason we had a free run at players like Elanga and Ramsey - none of the cartel clubs wanted them. Why?

What have Bournemouth Brighton and Brentford done? I wouldn’t swap any of our last four seasons for any of theirs 

[stozo]

3 minutes ago, Holmesy said:

I don’t think there’s anyone in our fanbase, wider football or the media that thinks we had a good transfer window. Arguing otherwise is strange to say the least. We spent £100m on two supposed first-team ready players to bolster the numbers and improve us. Neither have done that.

 
I admire your positive stance on the matter and I obviously hope both develop, but the way top level football is these days, most players have done their developing by 22/23. 
Eddie might be able to coach more out of them, but if they’re not first team ready now, it begs the question, why spend £100m on them when we could have signed equivalent, younger players that need development from elsewhere for probably half that? Back to the original point.

Maybe we expected them to be better than they are but again, that bolsters the argument for better and wider scouting. 

 

Hopefully we’ve learned our lesson and it doesn’t happen again. 

I just think - and no blame here, I think it happens naturally as it’s hard to keep up - that our fans expectations of the value of an ‘improve us immediately’ player is anchored on where the market was one or two years ago. If you drew up a list of £40-£45m midfielders who would improve us immediately, I think you’d have a very short list. 
 

I also think the broader problem is that we got completely fucked in the striker market in the summer, so all our signings are playing in an attack that is far, far below where it has been. Elanga, for example, has had some very poor moments, but so has Jacob Murphy who last season looked a world beater when he has Alex Isak on the end of his supply line. 

[oldtype]

1 hour ago, AyeDubbleYoo said:

 

That's not the question at all, that's just comparing past signings. 

We bought a 60m striker from Europe this season and nobody seems to be particularly enamored with him.

 

All signings are a risk, PL signings are a lower risk. Because we have a relatively efficient transfer market at this point, that risk is priced in as a "PL premium." European players are usually cheaper (and players from South America/Asia cheaper still), but there's a reason for that.

 

 

Edited March 9 by oldtype

[Theregulars]

3 hours ago, Holmesy said:

And we've achieved what exactly, apart from going backwards?
Bournemouth and Brentford are above us in the league and play better football than us, having spent a hell of a lot less. Brighton haven't the best season but no one can deny their scouting and acquisition model has been a success.

 

 

 

Give us 1 match a week too and I’m fairly confident we’d at least be running them very close, if not ahead. 
 

Their model is a success in significant part because it has a ceiling of lower ranked European competition qualification and most players who perform well leaving at the will of larger clubs. 

[BoSelecta]

Lumping Ramsey in with Elanga is so lazy, he looks like a really solid buy and I would be at all surprised if he became a fantastic buy at the money we paid. 

[cubaricho]

3 hours ago, Holmesy said:

And we've achieved what exactly, apart from going backwards?

 

How long have you been a fan to think that we’ve “gone backwards” and not forwards as a club?

 

We have two relegations this side of 2000. We had Joe Kinnear as a manager ffs. Ashley as an owner. 
 

We’ve only gone up. We won silverware for the first time in 70 years. 
 

“Gone backwards” get the fuck out of here.  

[jonny1403]

43 minutes ago, Holmesy said:

Bournemouth have one of the smallest turnovers in the PL yet manage to sign some truly excellent players. It's inevitable that some of their first team and squad will be average. They generally sign well, spend well, sell well and punch above their weight.

The risk of their model is lower than the risk of ours. If Rayan turns out not to be good enough, they've spent £28m and can probably recoup most of that. If he does well, they'll probably triple their money.
Do you think we'll ever see £55m for Elanga if we decide to sell him? Or £43m for Ramsey? And do we seriously think either of them will help us consistently break into the league's top 4?
 

 

 

 

If we sold Ramsey in the summer I think we’d certainly recoup most of what we paid for him, yes. Wouldn’t you? 
 

And that’s a complete strawman argument regardless. If Bournemouth sold Favre tomorrow they’d make a big loss on him. Why are you comparing their best signings with our worst signings?

[Curva Sud Milano]

When you talk about players "PL proven"  you underestimate the fact that (historically) foreign players adapt well to your league... both Northern and Southern European players have always adapted well to the PL, even South Americans in general; paradoxically the only ones who have a harder time are the Germans, which is very strange given that they're culturally closer to you.

Players like Vialli and, to some extent Zola, who were considered "finished" in Italy had brilliant second careers in the UK. Perhaps for some, especially South Americans, it can be difficult to adjust to life in UK but certainly not to your football.

 

 

Edited March 9 by Curva Sud Milano

[Theregulars]

I think for us to do well you need a mixture of the data-smart signings and big money “guarantees”; ideally succeeding with a few of the former leaves you scope to get 1 or 2 of the latter. 
 

The difficulty with us now is likely going to be convincing really top level players to come here for less money and have no guarantee of recurring elite European competition (that, I am sure, being the pitch partly sold to botman, Bruno and tonali in particular). That’s before throwing in the uncertainty of no Europe / some Europe, inevitable departures and what I see as an ownership which is supportive but not backing the club as one of its main priorities. 
 

You then wonder - as always seems to be lurking around with us and something I think we really struggle with as a fanbase - whether in practice one of our strengths is being a stepping stone for players with immense potential to be superbly coached and then get a massive move elsewhere. I can’t see any other way around it with financial rules as they are, and that concerns me because the Isak think was so damaging to everyone involved and has really obviously set us back quite a bit. As a fanbase I think it triggers awful memories. 

[oldtype]

In retrospect, I would say that aside from Woltemade and Wissa, who were both obvious panic buys/overpays, I am fine with the decision-making process behind every single one of our summer signings. 

 

Even Elanga. Yes, he has been underperforming but paradoxically he was one of our first choice targets whom we had scouted for ages. We thought he would be a low-risk signing and the price of 55m is perfectly fair for a young player who already had an extensive record of producing as a PL starter. The result has been terrible so far for reasons none of us will ever fully understand, but the process was sound. Even a good process doesn't guarantee good results all of the time.

[Holmesy]

10 minutes ago, stozo said:

I just think - and no blame here, I think it happens naturally as it’s hard to keep up - that our fans expectations of the value of an ‘improve us immediately’ player is anchored on where the market was one or two years ago. If you drew up a list of £40-£45m midfielders who would improve us immediately, I think you’d have a very short list. 
 

I also think the broader problem is that we got completely fucked in the striker market in the summer, so all our signings are playing in an attack that is far, far below where it has been. Elanga, for example, has had some very poor moments, but so has Jacob Murphy who last season looked a world beater when he has Alex Isak on the end of his supply line. 

Fair points. I still think there’s better value to be had elsewhere, and no one can convince me otherwise. The Isak situation combined the the DoF debacle definitely fucked us but I do think they were amplified by only having our eye on a small pool of players, which seems to be Eddie’s M.O. 

We ended up in a reactive state and at the hands of teams who knew we were desperate for signings.