Newcastle United 4-3 Notts Forest - 23/02

[Kid Icarus]

20 minutes ago, Kaizero said:

 

I literally pointed out how rarely it's happened that a team placed in the top four after 26 matches ended up outside the top four, I just added the * part to avoid ending up having to deal with someone deciding to start this exact kind of interaction! 

 

5 times out of 29 returns the an historical mathematical probability of 17.2% that Forest will finish the season outside the top four when all is said and done. Essentially meaning 4 times out of 5 they'd finish there based on how teams before them fared when they found themselves in the same position on the table at the same time of the season. In addition, 29 times out of 29 no team that found themselves in the top four at this stage of the season ended up finishing lower than 6th. 

 

I genuinely don't think I've missed out on anything when I looked through past seasons, but from experience I'm aware that in the event I'd actually done it, I'd get stuck discussing something completely irrelevant to the topic I wanted to discuss when I made the choice to engage. Instead, as has been the case for a long time now, the only thing that happens on here when trying to actually discuss a topic relevant to its thread is that I end up in a meaningless discussion about something obviously irrelevant for the topic being discussed. You're genuinely one of the brightest people I've had the pleasure of discussing shit with on here over the past 19+ years, so I can't make myself believe you'd not understand the intent behind the * inclusion, and rather chose to do the exact thing I included the * part in my post trying to avoid  

 

Where they are and the records you're citing aren't the point I'm getting at really. It's about how they got there and whether it's largely through luck or not. That's why I quoted the part where you mention luck, but then discounted it because it doesn't feel realistic to you.

 

When you look through those records though, there'll be plenty of teams who came along and got there with the help of playing the percentages and a large amount of luck. They're the teams that rightly or wrongly fall into the category of being in a false position, overachieving, whatever you want to call it. Us finishing 5th in 11/12 is a good example.

 

Basically, you can still be right about where they end up being a success, and the people saying they're in a false position can still be right because we've all watched enough teams like that to be pretty confident that  they're a flash in the pan, relying on things that aren't sustainable - playing the percentages and luck - and will likely fall away soon enough, either within this season or next.

 

 

Edited 5 hours ago by Kid Icarus

[Mattoon]

1 minute ago, Kid Icarus said:

Where they are and the records you're citing aren't the point I'm getting at really. It's about how they got there and whether it's largely through luck or not. That's why I quoted the part where you mention luck, but then discounted it because it doesn't feel realistic to you.

 

When you look through those records though, there'll be plenty of teams who came along and got there with the help of playing the percentages and a large amount of luck. They're the teams that rightly or wrongly fall into the category of being in a false position, overachieving, whatever you want to call it. Us finishing 5th in 11/12 is a good example.

 

Basically, you can still be right about where they end up being a success, and the people saying they're in a false position can still be right because we've all watched enough teams like that be pretty confident that  they're a flash in the pan, relying on things that aren't sustainable - playing the percentages and luck - and will likely fall away soon enough, either within this season or next.

 

See NUFC under Pardew 2012, that 5th season was unsustainable.

[Scoreboard82]

42 minutes ago, Turnbull2000 said:

You's need to stop belittling Forest, they deserve to be where they are. And they've achieved a lot more than us these past 50 years.

Without checking records, most of what they achieved in those 50 years was about 45 years ago. You can't take those achievements away but don't recall them achieving much, if anything more than us since the very early 80s.

[The Prophet]

While I'm obviously not blaming the fans, it sounded like the crowd thought we'd wrapped it up as much as the players did. The second half atmosphere sounded largely silent, punctuated by the usual moans and groans.

[Pancrate1892]

1 minute ago, The Prophet said:

While I'm obviously not blaming the fans, it sounded like the crowd thought we'd wrapped it up as much as the players did. The second half atmosphere sounded largely silent, punctuated by the usual moans and groans.

I think a Saturday or even an midweek evening game seem to be far better. On a Sunday everyone seems to be hungover and itching to get back to prepare for a week of graft 

[Oregon_Geordie]

Just in from the match. 

 

Didn't expect much after the last few home games in the League - would have taken a draw against a very well drilled team.

 

Weird bloody game. Nervy first 10-15, ridiculous 30 minutes with some deadly finishes and a slice of luck...and they all went home at half time.

 

Sunday League second halve, but a huuuuuuuuugggggeeeeeee win!
Just a pity we didn't continue to build confidence for Wednesday and thereafter.

 

Special mention to all the fan's leaving with 10 minutes to go - why? I don't understand...

 

Onwards...Still on for a hugely successful season. HWTL's.

 

[Scoreboard82]

3 minutes ago, The Prophet said:

While I'm obviously not blaming the fans, it sounded like the crowd thought we'd wrapped it up as much as the players did. The second half atmosphere sounded largely silent, punctuated by the usual moans and groans.

Yes, I think most thought it was job done. For any club other than ours a 4-1 lead should be a formality.

[Danh1]

Second half was shite from the team but the crowd were just sat in absolute silence also. Utterly shite from everyone. 
 

Ultimately though we won and that’s all that matters. Happy fucking days.

[OoOGazOoO]

1 hour ago, Lush Vlad said:

Howe’s interview with our in house media was spot on. Pulled no punches about the second half and seemed like he was fuming. Something to work on. 
 

I thought Willock was much better today. To the point where he was one of our better performers. Tino was too, apart from still being a bit clumsy on the ball when the game state called for being sensible. 

 

What did Howe say, mate?

[Pancrate1892]

13 minutes ago, OoOGazOoO said:

 

What did Howe say, mate?

He said

"Stop fucking about with the ball on the edge of the box you massive bunch of cunts" 

[Gazzaschicken]

 

[Lush Vlad]

27 minutes ago, OoOGazOoO said:

 

What did Howe say, mate?

Not sure if you’re on insta or not?

 

https://www.instagram.com/reel/DGbFIt5qZmf/?igsh=MTR0N245eGlhYXZ5Zw==

[midds]

Weird game, don't get them like that very often. Not sure if we deliberately eased off in the second half or they noticeably stepped it up a few notches, either way we were hanging on for the win. We looked sloppy as fuck way too often, just simple 10/15 yard passes being played to the wrong player or going wayward. All 3 goals were the result of shocking mistakes and/or really poor defending and it's happened way too often to put it down to a blip - it's not a blip if it keeps on fucking happening. 

 

Yet we won. It was a must win game and we closed the gap, Arsenal lost, Chelsea lost, City lost, Bournemouth lost and Forest lost too so it's been a good weekend.

 

 

This sums it up tbh

[Big Geordie]

Must admit - I was having visions of QPR v Newcastle back in 1985, during the 2nd half (another for the older posters!)

[JLC]

4 minutes ago, Big Geordie said:

Must admit - I was having visions of QPR v Newcastle back in 1985, during the 2nd half (another for the older posters!)

Was there. Still have a deep seated psychological issue about it.

[Maggies]

Forest pressed a lot better in the second half. Burn and Schar are hopeless when being pressed which then brings the midfield too deep and Isak gets isolated. None of this is helped by Pope being useless on the ball.

 

The sooner Botman is fit the better.

 

However… a win is a win. Liverpool game is a free hit ahead of a favourable fixture list of the run in.

[El Prontonise]

It's an important win, but the negativity is understandable after that 2nd half which was dreadful and possibly worst at home under Howe imo.

 

Complete microcosm of our season in 90 mins.

 

Another 5 mins and forest equalise imo.

 

 

Edited 4 hours ago by El Prontonise

[Big Geordie]

Just now, El Prontonise said:

It's an important win, but the negativity is understandable after that 2nd half which was dreadful.

 

Complete microcosm of our season in 90 mins.

 

Another 5 mins and forest equalise imo.

 

Said that to my old man, when I went to his to watch Man City v Liverpool.

[gbandit]

Can someone provide a theory for why we’ve played so poorly in so many second halves this season? That one was a carbon copy of others where we’ve not held onto the ball for more than three passes at a time countless times. It also mirrored other games where we’ve just been camped in our own half and looked incredibly terrified of the ball 

[The Prophet]

On reflection, I think the formula was one we've seen from Howe many times. Overwhelm the opposition in the first half, then kill the game off in the second by slowing it down and making it stop-start, it's something we used to be very good at. Today few things become evident  though.

 

To kill the game, you need a "spoiler" next to Bruno. It used to be Longstaff and now it's Tonali. Willock and Miley just aren't equipped to play that role and as soon as Tonali came on, we looked far more comfortable.

 

We miss the additional height and ariel protrction that Joelinton offers from set pieces. We were able to compensate for this v Arsenal by bringing Botman in, but without that third physical presence we look a bit easy to bully.

 

The last point is that we're still making a lot of individual errors. Murphy and Pope for the first, Burn for the second, etc. It's just really poor, but brain farts from the likes of Schar, Burn and Bruno have become way to common in recent weeks.

[SUPERTOON]

9 minutes ago, gbandit said:

Can someone provide a theory for why we’ve played so poorly in so many second halves this season? That one was a carbon copy of others where we’ve not held onto the ball for more than three passes at a time countless times. It also mirrored other games where we’ve just been camped in our own half and looked incredibly terrified of the ball 

We are really bad in possession so we are always going to be at risk at being under pressure.

[Matt1892]

I can’t say I noticed us looking any more comfortable when Tonali came on.

[SUPERTOON]

We looked worse when we made subs (another theme this season).

[The Prophet]

17 minutes ago, gbandit said:

Can someone provide a theory for why we’ve played so poorly in so many second halves this season? That one was a carbon copy of others where we’ve not held onto the ball for more than three passes at a time countless times. It also mirrored other games where we’ve just been camped in our own half and looked incredibly terrified of the ball 

 

In Howe's first season, without ball players, we'd just shithouse our way through second halves. We're currently not equipped to do that either though.

[midds]

I'd also love to see the stats of Attacking the Gallowgate vs Defending the Gallowgate this season. Feels like we've been turned around so often at kick off that's it's actually had an impact on how we've played, probably tinfoil-hat stuff but it would be nice to know