Coffee_Johnny

Sorry for stats bombing your post, and hogging thread, but found the comparison I was searching for. Last 19 games of the 2021-22 season, Howe and co, managed 38 points with what was mainly Bruce’s team. 12 wins, 2 draws, 5 losses (all away, including 5-0 trouncing by Man City, except a 0-1 reverse at home to Liverpool). The same for this half season, would put us on 67 points. Which is close to the average for a 4th place finish (68) and I suspect, the way teams are taking points off one another, would be enough for 4th this season. So, in short, no reason to stop believing just yet.

After an ‘unusual’ season to date, fixtures and injuries wise, we are two points off the average points return for an eventual 6th place finish. I’m curious why you’re so certain. Are you nihilistic Nick? Nasty Nick? Or not really NUFC Nick?

Couldn’t find exact stats, but Jan to Apr 2023 was quite impressive over 55% win percentage, 1.96 points per game, and a goal difference of +40.

Did we not get 42 points in Howe’s first half-season? I’ll have a look later, but it was something remarkable like that.

Nah. Get the heavy hitters in the groove, so they can marvel at how much time they have against much weaker opponents and tear them apart.

Yep, bit of a restricted view. Can only see ‘headers’ from there…

You’re a winner! Grassy Knoll award 2023.

@TheBrownBottle @St1pe @Miggys First Goal Stand-up, take a bow, it’s fecking dire reading in here without your combination of optimism, blind hope and superstitious totty-waving!

Gameweek 20 Luton 2-1 Chelsea Villa 3-1 Burnley Palace 2-0 Brentford Man City 3-1 Sheff United Wolves 2-1 Everton Forest 2-2 Man United Fulham 0-2 Arsenal Spurs 2-2 Bournemouth Liverpool 2-1 Newcastle West Ham 1-1 Brighton

Off to search for a dictionary.

No doubt. But still better than inferring it might be their last Christmas ?

No reason to believe that we would play all three, at least not very often. We need a deep squad, which means routinely having first team quality on the bench.

I really find goalkeeper the hardest position to gauge, at least when it come to subtle judgements between those at top end of PL quality. But looking at their careers, Ramsdale has evidently been seen as being as higher quality in the early stages of his career (international appearances across the age groups and two big fees in his early 20s, £18m to SU and £30m to Arsenal). So I assume that even though 6 years younger and still developing he probably is a better keeper with greater potential to still realise.

Update on tracker towards a top six finish, taking account of the relative difficulty of games as they fall across the season. 29 points, at the end of December, puts us two points below a sixth place finish for the average PL season (assumptions in hidden content quoted). The losses against Luton, Forest and Everton haven’t put us too far below the curve; in fact two drawers would have seen us still on course for a likely sixth place finish.

I don’t think they knew it was coming from that stage. At least there’s no evidence of that. I think he seemed off/non-verbals and performances two or three games in. He probably got wind of it around then.

Don’t be too confident, “8-0, we only win 8-0…” (away, red and white stripes blah blah).

I really am. Firstly, expecting a reaction against Liverpool away. By reaction, I mean a better performance and maybe scrape a draw or narrow defeat, rather than something more remarkable. This will tee us up for a very strong away performance in the dark place. The planets are now aligned; the team who defeated Man Utd twice, plus Man City, and Arsenal; the team who put four or more past PSG, Villa, Chelsea and Palace; the team who recorded our biggest away win in our 131 year history, that team are back for the FA Cup. (Really weakens the rallying message to add ‘I hope’. So I won’t ?)

Actually, 7 losses and 7 draws at the beginning of the following season (Aug to Dec 2021) sounds worse.

I think it is three years (Jan to early Feb, 2021) since we lost more in a short period—7 out of 8 back then. 6 out of 7 now (so far…).

Yes.

Cuts both ways, how do you create loyalty and a sense of collective endeavour if you don’t back your stalwarts? we all love the team spirit he has helped create. It perhaps comes at a cost if the balance isn’t right.

Tier 1 last season. This season… fuck knows.

It’s based on last year. Could say, whatever we are, we’re not Tier 1 (on present results/form).

Quite a run of poor form. Since we beat Man Utd, 1-0 at home in early December probably one of the best team performances of the season, we have: Lost 3-0 away to a Tier 3 team (Everton) Lost 4-1 away to a Tier 2 team (Spurs) Lost 2-1 at home to Milan to exit European competition Won 3-0 home to Tier 3 team (Fulham, who were down to 10 men from 22nd minute) Drew/Lost away to Tier 2 Chelsea in Caribou Lost 1-0 away to a Tier 4 team (Luton) Lost 3-1 home to Tier 4 team (Forest). Losing 6 out of 7 winnable games. It’s been a while since we have had such a poor run of form.

2% probability of a win. Might lump on…