Mike Ashley

[Stu]

"Spending big is a good thing" - wrong.

 

Paying a slight premium can reap rewards if it is enough to secure an added bit of quality that lifts the team up a level. It's never a given and you look foolish for stating such a thing given what you've witnessed over the past 10 years.

[NG32]

I have the same worries, eventually we will lose a player we cant replace but really, there will always be players available, you just have to spend the time looking.  Some clubs dont have the resources, some clubs aren't clued up and some just buy established players.

 

I think the model is spot on, nothing much you can do when you fucking mad russians, crazy arabs and mental yanks are chucking money about like its confetti.

[ponsaelius]

Yeah, I'm sure Ashley is now completely converted to the "speculate to accumulate" philiosophy.

 

I didn't say that. However if the £10 million spent on Cisse means we get in the Champions league which increases revenue massively, it might encourage a slight rethink. The Coloccini contract like Ronaldo says also hopefully suggests they are willing to sway from their strict policy.

 

"Spending big is a good thing" - wrong.

 

Paying a slight premium can reap rewards if it is enough to secure an added bit of quality that lifts the team up a level. It's never a given and you look foolish for stating such a thing given what you've witnessed over the past 10 years.

 

The second bit is exactly what I was implying. Spending big for the extra bit of quality CAN be a good thing. Apologies for not making it clearer, I've certainly not been the type of poster on here that advocates spending for spending sake, quite the opposite.

[Dave]

Its a all a 

 

Scout young talented players and buy them cheap. 

 

...then hopefully sell them for big money and use the brass to subsidise losses elsewhere, and/or buy cheap replacements again.

 

The hardest thing for me to accept - aside from learning not to become attached to our best players - is that we are able to trade up each time, whilst losing key components of our team. Whilst it's working like this season has then obviously there's no problem, I just can't help but feel that at some point we need to draw a line under it and keep the core together if we're to repeat this season's success or progress even further. Hopefully the new contracts for Coloccini ('too old, wages too high') and the purchase of Cisse ('over 25, far too much to pay') are an indication of this.

 

If we got top four it would be almost completely down to the signing of Cisse in January, as there'd be no way we'd have hit this form otherwise. That might be the nudge they need to realise that spending big is a good thing because it means speculating to accumulate.

 

It answered something I had been questioning - if they had so much faith in Carr and the scouting team/policy then why weren't they backed with funds greater than about £5m, a very modest sum of money in today's transfer market. There will always be bargains around that do really well, and there always have been. Making good value signings isn't an invention of this regime, Shearer was a world record transfer and worth every penny. Shay Given cost us a tenth of that and was an equally successful deal. There will unfortunately always also be gambles that don't pay off. I don't expect us to be able to compete with even the likes of Liverpool on transfer fees, never mind the likes of Chelsea and Man City. I wouldn't actually want to spend that kind of money. But if we trust our scouting team and manager then let's back them properly. Including if a transfer doesn't work out too well.

 

For a decent amount of time now the transfers in and out have by and large been a roaring success. Let's hope it continues.

[NEEJ]

I had a dream last night that Mike Ashley wandered into the bar I was in. He went and got himself a pint, then looked around the place for somewhere to sit. There was nowhere apart from a couple of spare seats at our table, so he sat down with us. Everyone just purposely ignored him, but he kept trying to talk to me. It was an awkward dream.

[NG32]

 

Dreaming about ignoring people. 

[High Five o]

 

Dreaming about ignoring people. 

 

:lol:

[LucaAltieri]

"Spending big" on Cisse was actually nothing of the sort.

 

£10m is a lot by our standards, but by the standards of other clubs/strikers in the league and around Europe, £10m is reasonable.

 

We're not opposed to spending x-amount on any player. We're interested in value for money.

 

We'd probably spend £20m on a player if we felt he valued significantly more.

 

It's all relative.

[Guest gggg]

I thought it was £8m?

[NG32]

Its 10 now, it'll be 15 million next week.

[wormy]

I heard £5.75m up front with £17.3m in bonuses dependent on qualifying for CL and Cisse becoming our all-time top goalscorer.

[Cronky]

As I understand it, in the American Moneyball someone identified a particular statistical indicator of a player's value, that conventional wisdom had ignored or dismissed. By correctly realising that the stat was key, Oakland gained an advantage, for a while at least.

 

Whilst stats haven't played a part in our team-building, Ashley has reaped the benefits of some unconventional decisions which have proved correct - decisions which would have led to a lot of criticism had they failed. Egs replacing a manager who was doing reasonably well with someone who he felt could do better (most owners wait until the team's in trouble), and giving a long contract to a player with a bad injury.

 

The key element in Moneyball for me is having the courage to think for yourself and not follow the herd. At first, before he got to know the business, that part of Ashley's approach was a problem - now it's a big asset.

[Unbelievable]

What we're doing has nothing to do with moneyball. I posted an article in the Liverpool thread last week with an analysis on how they (Liverpool) were trying to use statistics like number of crosses, number of headers won and number of balls won in opposing third etcetera as indicators for winning matches and selected their transfer targets accordingly. However, football being the dynamic team game that it is, I don't think statistics are anywhere near as useful as they are in baseball for example.

 

Edit: link to article if anybody's interested: http://tomkinstimes.com/2012/04/moneyball-statistics-and-damien-comolli/

[oldtype]

"Moneyball" in the social consciousness right now basically just means "using some sort of efficient method to achieve disproportionately good results with a limited budget."

 

Obviously that's not what the original "Moneyball" (which, incidentally, is just the name of the book. The actual methodology is known as Sabremetrics) was about, but it's what the word means now. No point in being snobs about it I suppose.

[Memphis]

As I understand it, in the American Moneyball someone identified a particular statistical indicator of a player's value, that conventional wisdom had ignored or dismissed. By correctly realising that the stat was key, Oakland gained an advantage, for a while at least.

 

That's exactly right.  Oakland is perennially one of the lowest-attended, lowest-spending teams in baseball, so their General Manager Billy Beane tried to identify weaknesses in the market that would allow them to find undervalued players.  Slight baseball aside - they used on-base percentage and walks to help figure out players who were more productive than their stats would have indicated, and they signed college players as opposed to high school prospects because they were more of a sure thing.

 

What Ashley is doing isn't Moneyball in any sense other than finding players whose perceived value by Carr and the scouting staff exceeds their market value.  That's not Moneyball, that's just smart buying.  I suppose there is an element of Moneyball in focusing on leagues which continue to produce talent that's undervalued in the market, but that's not nearly the same thing.  Incidentally, Oakland's strategy was found out, other teams started doing the same things they did, and they're back in the shit.

 

If you have a scouting staff you believe in and an ability to sniff out bargains, that's all you need for Ashley's approach.  Most teams have one but not the other - or neither at all. 

[gazza ladra]

Right, and Sabermetrics goes back to the 1980s and Bill James' Baseball Abtracts. These are not new ideas. Very useful in baseball, not so useful in the football.

[Unbelievable]

The closest thing to actual sabermetrics/moneyball in football was Fat Sam's over-relience on match statistics analysis. Boy, was it exciting!

[timeEd32]

As I understand it, in the American Moneyball someone identified a particular statistical indicator of a player's value, that conventional wisdom had ignored or dismissed. By correctly realising that the stat was key, Oakland gained an advantage, for a while at least.

 

That's exactly right.  Oakland is perennially one of the lowest-attended, lowest-spending teams in baseball, so their General Manager Billy Beane tried to identify weaknesses in the market that would allow them to find undervalued players.  Slight baseball aside - they used on-base percentage and walks to help figure out players who were more productive than their stats would have indicated, and they signed college players as opposed to high school prospects because they were more of a sure thing.

 

What Ashley is doing isn't Moneyball in any sense other than finding players whose perceived value by Carr and the scouting staff exceeds their market value.  That's not Moneyball, that's just smart buying.  I suppose there is an element of Moneyball in focusing on leagues which continue to produce talent that's undervalued in the market, but that's not nearly the same thing.  Incidentally, Oakland's strategy was found out, other teams started doing the same things they did, and they're back in the s***.

If you have a scouting staff you believe in and an ability to sniff out bargains, that's all you need for Ashley's approach.  Most teams have one but not the other - or neither at all. 

 

As oldtype says above, the concept of Moneyball has morphed into something much greater than recognizing on-base percentage.

 

The bit in bold is key as well. No matter what happened on the field the A's, because of their market, were never going to be able to compete with the top teams once everyone copied their methods. As it pertains to Newcastle, the method isn't nearly as easy to copy (unless they steal Graham Carr), the right infrastructure is in place in terms of facilities, and the way football is setup gives a club a better chance of sustaining success once you get near the top (CL money, attracting higher profile players, etc.).

[TheGuv]

http://www.themag.co.uk/the-mag-wire/mike-ashley-hitting-the-toon-again/#disqus_thread

 

Didn't reliase he was drinking in the toon again.

 

Tbh even though we've done so well this season, i still can never forgive him for everyhting he's done, as childish as that sounds and i'd still have words with him if i ever saw him

[Guest BooBoo]

There's probably too much water under the bridge for NUFC fans to welcome Ashley back into the Strawberry but whatever happens at the end of the season, I think for the first time in his ownership we're in a better position than when he bought the club. There's stability in the dugout, with a manager and coaching team who have deservedly earned the fans respect through hard work and good results. Our recruitment policy, is without doubt, the envy of the PL. Players scouted for some time before rash decisions and scatter gun approaches leading to overhyped, overpaid and under performing "superstars" pulling on the shirt. Owen, Viduka, Martins, I'm looking at you. Where money was once shamefully squandered, it's now sensibly spent without knees jerking.

 

There's no doubt that our lengthy contract policy suggests that it will take mega bids for us to part with players. This summer however, if we do lose a Krul or a Tiote, for the first time I would be content that we could bring in a replacement who could be trusted. I won't be doing a chicken licken if we see one of the top players leave.

 

As I say, Ashley may never deserve a pat on the back or a handshake but for where NUFC are in this moment in time he deserves a bit of credit.

 

It's been mentioned in the Pardew thread about the malaise of the post Bobby to relegation era. Watching us in those 5 or 6 years was a grim soul crushing affair with only a handful of great moments. The last three years though have been very enjoyable. Pride restored, players playing for the shirt and (hopefully) an end to the wealth of negative headlines that have dogged us for years.

 

It's good to be back.

[TheGuv]

There's probably too much water under the bridge for NUFC fans to welcome Ashley back into the Strawberry but whatever happens at the end of the season, I think for the first time in his ownership we're in a better position than when he bought the club. There's stability in the dugout, with a manager and coaching team who have deservedly earned the fans respect through hard work and good results. Our recruitment policy, is without doubt, the envy of the PL. Players scouted for some time before rash decisions and scatter gun approaches leading to overhyped, overpaid and under performing "superstars" pulling on the shirt. Owen, Viduka, Martins, I'm looking at you. Where money was once shamefully squandered, it's now sensibly spent without knees jerking.

 

There's no doubt that our lengthy contract policy suggests that it will take mega bids for us to part with players. This summer however, if we do lose a Krul or a Tiote, for the first time I would be content that we could bring in a replacement who could be trusted. I won't be doing a chicken licken if we see one of the top players leave.

 

As I say, Ashley may never deserve a pat on the back or a handshake but for where NUFC are in this moment in time he deserves a bit of credit.

 

It's been mentioned in the Pardew thread about the malaise of the post Bobby to relegation era. Watching us in those 5 or 6 years was a grim soul crushing affair with only a handful of great moments. The last three years though have been very enjoyable. Pride restored, players playing for the shirt and (hopefully) an end to the wealth of negative headlines that have dogged us for years.

 

It's good to be back.

 

[AyeDubbleYoo]

Indeed, long may it continue.

[Guest Howaythetoon]

I have to say, the last 3 seasons have been some of the most enjoyable periods I've witnessed supporting the lads. We work hard as a side, go into every game looking to pick up points, home or away, and have in the main a hugely likable squad full of hard working and very talented bunch of individuals who have helped us to progress year on year. I've never been this content with all things NUFC since Sir Bobby's days. However, under this regieme, good can turn to bad very quickly, so although things are good, I personally cannot sleep easily if you like. 

 

Mind, I think Ashley is seeing just what kind of potential NUFC has for the first time really and this with minimal spend or hands on management. We question his motives but clearly, success is what he desires most, especially financially and for us, a financially successful football club gives us a fighting chance on the pitch.

 

This season alone, the management of the club from top to bottom has been nothing short of superb and in many ways, dream like. Long may it continue.

[thedudeabides]

Great post Otter, couldn't agree more.......especially the bit about the last 3 years.

 

Surely even the most passionate of Ashley haters, must now agree that the club is in an infinitely better shape than the one he bought?

[henke]

Surely even the most passionate of Ashley haters, must now agree that the club is in an infinitely better shape than the one he bought?

 

Aye. The weird bit for me, or at least one of them, is that of all the players we're linked with bringing in this summer i fully expect them to be a success. Whether it's left back A or left back B, the guy coming in will actually want to be here. He won't be coming here because we offered more than his first choice club. Dead simple approach to signing players, i'm just amazed it didn't happen years ago. Must be cos us delusional geordies demand big names?