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NUFC Statistical Analysis (12/13 Season)

SEMTEX

by SEMTEX
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SEMTEX

SEMTEX

Posted
Posted

Sacked off all this shit because it was nonsense. But there is other ongoing statistical analysis based upon our performance in years gone by, that seems legit.

 

 

The Stats

Season: Up to Gameweek 7 (10/8/2012)

 

Actual Points

 

Everton, Tottenham (14)

Arsenal (12)

Newcastle (9)

Sunderland (7)

Liverpool (6)

 

Points - Points Required

 

Everton (+3)

Arsenal (+2)

Tottenham (0)

Sunderland*(-2)

Newcastle (-3)

Liverpool (-5)

 

*mackems have played one less

 

September

 

 

Actual Points

 

Everton (13)

Tottenham (11)

Newcastle, Arsenal (9)

Sunderland* (7)

Liverpool (5)

 

Points - Points Required

 

Everton (+3)

Tottenham, Arsenal (0)

Sunderland*, Newcastle (-2)

Liverpool (-3)

 

*mackems have played one less

 

 

 

 

August

 

 

 

 

Actual Points - Required Points (After end of August)

http://i.imgur.com/r1cBp.png

Click to embiggen

 

Required Points for August

 

http://i.imgur.com/BZ4mB.jpg

 

Tottenham, Arsenal (4)

Newcastle (3)

Liverpool, Everton (2)

Sunderland* (1)

 

August - (Points - Required Points) - up to end of month

Everton (+4)

Newcastle, Sunderland* (0)

Liverpool (-1)

Arsenal (-2)

Tottenham (-3)

 

Actual Points - Required Points (After end of August)

http://i.imgur.com/r1cBp.png

Click to embiggen

 

Actual Table - up to end of month

Everton (6)

Newcastle (3)

Arsenal (2)

Sunderland*, Liverpool, Tottenham (1)

 

*game vs reading postponed just to fuck with us, originally required D W, but second game postponed, so only 1 game played in August.

 

NUFC Performance for month of August:

http://i.imgur.com/5rEcc.png

Click to embiggen

 

 

 

 

 

 

PREMISE:

 

Unfortunately for all of us, I am the brave idiot who has chosen to make a particularly large spreadsheet to continue this completely unnecessary statistical analysis of NUFC's season.

 

The original Pip premise for 11/12:

 

http://www.newcastle-online.org/nufcforum/index.php/topic,89764.0.html

 

By just browsing the tables from the past 5 or 6 seasons, it seems that roughly 60 points is the target if you want to get 7th, which I think is a realistic, if slightly ambitious, target for us.

 

I think we'll be competing with teams like Everton, Sunderland and Villa, so I'll be tracking their results here as well.

 

Anyway, what I'm going to track is basically the actual points a team gets vs the expected points the team is supposed to get. I think the Premiership table at certain points of the season doesn't tell the full picture. Many times, teams that have good or bad starts only do so because the quality of the opposition, and it's not a true reflection of the quality of the team, so if you know how you're performing against how you're supposed to perform, then it can be comforting (or not). Chelsea, for example, started last season very well because they faced quite a lot of shit teams.

 

Anyway, to get 58 points in a season - why 58? because the formula works better - you can lose all your matches against the top 6 away from home and draw against them at home. That gives you 6 expected points from 12 matches.

 

Then against everyone else, you're expected to win all your home games and draw all your away games, which is (13x3 + 13x1) = 52.

 

52 + 6 = 58. If any of Villa, Everton, Sunderland or us gets 58 points, I think that it'd be good enough for 7th place.

 

My alternative interpretation of the premise:

 

 

 

Original: "you can lose all your matches against the top 6 away from home and draw against them at home" (Man City, Man Utd, Chelsea, Arsenal, Tottenham, Liverpool)

My alteration: "Fuck Liverpool. Fuck right off if you think I'm assuming we're not good enough to beat Liverpool. Tottenham too. + NOW ARSENAL"

 

I will change this to 3 teams, removing Liverpool & Tottenham & Arsenal from the original 6. I know we finished above Chelsea, but I find it hard to believe that they shouldn't be on this list, given their expenditure (It was also a lot less painful putting them on a list of elite teams when compared to the option of either Liverpool or Tottenham being on said list). This total should get you 5th comfortably. It's the right kind of point total for us though IMO, it'd be 1 less point than last year.

 

So:

 

The total that I'm putting as required is 67.

 

Lose vs Top 3 away (Man U/C, Chelsea)

Draw vs Top 3 home (3) +

Draw vs rest away (16) +

Win vs rest home (48) = 67.

 

Looking at the last 5 seasons, this points total would get you 5th every time.

 

I will follow these teams: NUFC, Tottenham, Liverpool, Everton, Villa, Sunderland (for the luls (hopefully)), Arsenal

 

Required Points for Season by Gameweek

 

http://i.imgur.com/YskpN.jpg

Click to embiggen

(The only thing I can establish from this right now, is that we shouldn't get giddy if Liverpool are lagging behind come October, as they've had a harder run of games)

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Guest hydeous

Guest hydeous

Posted
Posted

Love it, great work!

I think we should be tracking Arsenal results too, but since that'll throw the 'Top-4' out of whack, I'll pipe down now.

 

Well done, looking forward to this thread and hoping for a fun ride!

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SEMTEX

SEMTEX

Posted
Posted

All the logic is programmed and it took about 30 minutes. I just have to put in whether they won/lost/drew. Exporting and lobbing on here is the most annoying part.

 

Could also do with something that makes graphs look less bare and excelly.

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Corrigan

Corrigan

Posted
Posted

Where's that 'didn't read' gif when you need it? :lol:

 

 

http://gifsoup.com/webroot/animatedgifs1/2255100_o.gif

 

http://i.imgur.com/m86Vz.gif

 

http://i1.kym-cdn.com/photos/images/newsfeed/000/237/621/c8a.gif

 

http://i2.kym-cdn.com/photos/images/original/000/154/912/berneydidnotread.gif

 

http://gifsforum.com/images/gif/did%20not%20read/grand/didnt_read_wtf_gif.gif

 

http://i3.kym-cdn.com/photos/images/newsfeed/000/199/896/2jfg08h.gif

 

http://imgon.net/di-5PO6.gif

 

http://www.gifsforum.com/images/gif/did%20not%20read/grand/didnt_read_sax_gif.gif

 

 

 

Take your pick ?

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SEMTEX

SEMTEX

Posted
Posted

Thanks and well done for taking it on.

I must say however that the original premise of 7th is more realistic for us and will ultimately be more enjoyable in it's achievability.

 

You say that, but do you think there are 6 teams that we have absolutely no chance of finishing above? I think 6th or 5th is perfectly achievable tbh.

 

Also, last years premise was laughed at by many for being exceptionally hopeful. The whole purpose is that it should be a fight for x position, rather than something easy to achieve. I was tempted to make it a battle for 5th more than 7th.

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SEMTEX

SEMTEX

Posted
Posted

Excuse me if I'm totally misunderstanding something, but how, after one game, are we on 3 points and Spurs on 1? Even hypothetically.

 

EDIT: Forget that

 

Forget that because you get it, or because you gave up? I can attempt to reword.

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NEEJ

NEEJ

Posted
Posted

Where's that 'didn't read' gif when you need it? :lol:

 

 

http://gifsoup.com/webroot/animatedgifs1/2255100_o.gif

 

http://i.imgur.com/m86Vz.gif

 

http://i1.kym-cdn.com/photos/images/newsfeed/000/237/621/c8a.gif

 

http://i2.kym-cdn.com/photos/images/original/000/154/912/berneydidnotread.gif

 

http://gifsforum.com/images/gif/did%20not%20read/grand/didnt_read_wtf_gif.gif

 

http://i3.kym-cdn.com/photos/images/newsfeed/000/199/896/2jfg08h.gif

 

http://imgon.net/di-5PO6.gif

 

http://www.gifsforum.com/images/gif/did%20not%20read/grand/didnt_read_sax_gif.gif

 

 

 

Take your pick ?

:lol:

In all seriousness though, I will read through this when I can be bothered, the battle for 7th was rather interesting. :thup:

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Benwell Lad

Benwell Lad

Posted
Posted

Thanks and well done for taking it on.

I must say however that the original premise of 7th is more realistic for us and will ultimately be more enjoyable in it's achievability.

 

You say that, but do you think there are 6 teams that we have absolutely no chance of finishing above? I think 6th or 5th is perfectly achievable tbh.

 

Also, last years premise was laughed at by many for being exceptionally hopeful. The whole purpose is that it should be a fight for x position, rather than something easy to achieve. I was tempted to make it a battle for 5th more than 7th.

 

No not really. Anything is possible, although my bet would be 6th or 7th and I'd be very satisfied with that.

Perhaps I need to read it more carefully but taking Spurs and Liverpool out of the teams we don't need to beat really makes it the battle for 5th.

Anyway, the target is to some extent irrelevent, we could make it 1st or 10th, whatever.

I'd adopt the manager type stance and set the bar low to make sure we don't fail  ;)

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Rich

Rich

Posted
Posted

Great stuff :thup:

 

Just hope it's as fun to read as last season's as we soar gaily above all expectations. Like a majestic eagle with a sunny disposition, or a penchant for same-sex avian rattling, depending on your interpretation.

 

HTL. FTM. ETC.

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