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Various: Mike Ashley in talks with Sheikh Khaled bin Zayed Al Nehayan

Kaizero

by Kaizero
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TRon

TRon

Posted
Posted

Sticking point is still the valuation according to Mark Douglas. £50m apart.

So no progress at all after 2 months, Ashley happy to gamble as always

 

This isn't just down to Ashley though. His reported compromised asking price seems reasonable. You wouldn't take a low ball offer on your house after you've dropped it to a reasonable price... Dont see why he should go any lower. I want him out as much as the next man but we've got to be realistic on what he's going to accept.

 

Total mess and jeopardising our ability to remain in the league. £50m and we could be set back years and years after a 3rd relegation. Seems really cheap and shortsighted to me from the prospective owners. Of course if it's true. Could still be all done, could still be all bollocks and we're being taken for a ride.

The offer reflects the current amount of uncertainty regarding our future and considering the complete lack of investment from Ashley and the amount of investment required for us to fulfil our potential seems fair to me at least. 

 

That's how I read it as well. I would think that once safety is assured, PCP will be more likely to pay what Ashley is looking for. For a deal to be done now, a relegation clause would make sense.

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Mr Logic

Mr Logic

Posted
Posted

Sticking point is still the valuation according to Mark Douglas. £50m apart.

So no progress at all after 2 months, Ashley happy to gamble as always

 

This isn't just down to Ashley though. His reported compromised asking price seems reasonable. You wouldn't take a low ball offer on your house after you've dropped it to a reasonable price... Dont see why he should go any lower. I want him out as much as the next man but we've got to be realistic on what he's going to accept.

 

Total mess and jeopardising our ability to remain in the league. £50m and we could be set back years and years after a 3rd relegation. Seems really cheap and shortsighted to me from the prospective owners. Of course if it's true. Could still be all done, could still be all bollocks and we're being taken for a ride.

 

What reported compromise price? Was this after the only offer to date?

 

If you stick a price on something that's way over market value, (only really discoverable by due dilligence), then knock a good chunk off it but that new figure is still 20% above market value? I wouldn't call prospective owners cheap or shortsighted in those circumstances.

 

In fact I'd call Ashley a cunt; he has previous you know.

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UncleBingo

UncleBingo

Posted
Posted

Sticking point is still the valuation according to Mark Douglas. £50m apart.

So no progress at all after 2 months, Ashley happy to gamble as always

 

This isn't just down to Ashley though. His reported compromised asking price seems reasonable. You wouldn't take a low ball offer on your house after you've dropped it to a reasonable price... Dont see why he should go any lower. I want him out as much as the next man but we've got to be realistic on what he's going to accept.

 

Total mess and jeopardising our ability to remain in the league. £50m and we could be set back years and years after a 3rd relegation. Seems really cheap and shortsighted to me from the prospective owners. Of course if it's true. Could still be all done, could still be all bollocks and we're being taken for a ride.

 

My guess is they think Ashley is being unrealistic with the asking price, especially with the threat of relegation and the HMRC case hanging over us.

 

And they'd be right in my opinion.

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Shearergol

Shearergol

Posted
Posted

So, if our premiership status is confirmed. AS will value the club at higher than she does currently. Let's hope Ashley doesn't do the same.

 

That's exactly the point. He will value the club higher once it gets the guaranteed TV money. The whole thing is a farce. He'll never want to sell if we become a mid-table club every season, why would he?

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Kasper

Kasper

Posted
Posted

Sticking point is still the valuation according to Mark Douglas. £50m apart.

So no progress at all after 2 months, Ashley happy to gamble as always

 

This isn't just down to Ashley though. His reported compromised asking price seems reasonable. You wouldn't take a low ball offer on your house after you've dropped it to a reasonable price... Dont see why he should go any lower. I want him out as much as the next man but we've got to be realistic on what he's going to accept.

 

Total mess and jeopardising our ability to remain in the league. £50m and we could be set back years and years after a 3rd relegation. Seems really cheap and shortsighted to me from the prospective owners. Of course if it's true. Could still be all done, could still be all bollocks and we're being taken for a ride.

The offer reflects the current amount of uncertainty regarding our future and considering the complete lack of investment from Ashley and the amount of investment required for us to fulfil our potential seems fair to me at least. 

 

Yet the price would drop should we invest?

 

Not a great scenario for Mike.

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Village Idiot

Village Idiot

Posted
Posted

My take on this (based on nothing but my own speculation) is that the takeover will go through when our PL safety is confirmed. Ashley allegedly wasn't prepared to agree to the relegation clause so it doesn't make sense for things to be pushed through now. I reckon a deal is probably agreed in principle based on us retaining our PL status.

Problem for us is that we know Ashley will gamble on not doing much in the transfer window in order to maximise his profit.

 

I might be a bit stupid but how does not spending money on the transfer window maximse Ashley's profits? It's not like he's spending his own money.

 

Money spent by the club might be deducted from the sale price.

 

It's a big gamble though.

 

Doesn't the money just turns into club assets?

 

Yes, but it's not a 100% correlation. Wages and depreciation until summer would shave off a few million.

 

Plus the prospective owner might make a different (lower) valuation of those new assets.

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Kasper

Kasper

Posted
Posted

My take on this (based on nothing but my own speculation) is that the takeover will go through when our PL safety is confirmed. Ashley allegedly wasn't prepared to agree to the relegation clause so it doesn't make sense for things to be pushed through now. I reckon a deal is probably agreed in principle based on us retaining our PL status.

Problem for us is that we know Ashley will gamble on not doing much in the transfer window in order to maximise his profit.

 

I might be a bit stupid but how does not spending money on the transfer window maximse Ashley's profits? It's not like he's spending his own money.

 

Money spent by the club might be deducted from the sale price.

 

It's a big gamble though.

 

Doesn't the money just turns into club assets?

 

Yes, but it's not a 100% correlation. Wages and depreciation until summer would shave off a few million.

 

Plus the prospective owner might make a different (lower) valuation of those new assets.

 

Sure. But considering our situation surely those assets would decrease any risk factors in the investment (as in relegation).

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hakka

hakka

Posted
Posted

Even forgetting the sale completely, Rafa believed he was due more money based on promises, lack of summer investment and due to what we have on the pitch looking uncertain it can hold us up. The sale is no excuse for not investing what it needs. It's not worth it's value if it's under invested in.

 

If Ashley holds on to his price, fails to invest in January, PCP pull out, loses Rafa and we go down...surely it's going to cost him more than the 50m he's holding out for.

 

I'm not buying the valuation of Ashley. If it was a competitive PL club I'd agree, but it's not ceratin of that and it needs 50m or more of investment now to give a chance of safeguarding that.

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gdm

gdm

Posted
Posted

Still find it odd that some appear to consider £50million a minor sum of money.

 

I think they should be able to meet in the middle, we are a premier league club £50m is an average PL player these days. The possibility of relegation is the problem

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xLiaaamx

xLiaaamx

Posted
Posted

Not a chance Rafa stays if Ashley does. Absolutely zero chance.

 

And this whole "we'll have the TV money" argument - every club in the league will have it, so how does that even make a difference?

I think it won't matter anyway because Ashley's getting worse than ever before which is absolutely incredible to think it could get any worse, but they had it this year and we didn't which is where this line comes from.

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gdm

gdm

Posted
Posted

Full text:

 

So now the dust has settled on the weekend's wholly satisfactory FA Cup win (barring a second half that illustrated why it's so important to play a full-strength team), I thought I'd post an update on the takeover as there's still plenty of interest and we've seen in the last week a few incorrigible claims on Twitter in particular that "it is done" that "club staff have been briefed" and a few misguided blogs and claims about business activity that have falsely raised hope of an imminent deal. So, to surmise:

 

Why hasn't it happened?

 

Simply, the two parties left things after the last round of talks with a distance between them on valuation. £50m is the claimed figure which is about right. There are areas of agreement which point to something getting agreed in the medium-term, but until that gap is bridged one way or another, it's not going to go through.

These things take time, so don't be unduly alarmed. But the longer it goes without an agreement, the more scope there is for either side to either walk away, change their asking price/valuation (which may happen if the club pull away from relegation or get dragged into it) or generally undermine the agreements they have so far.

 

Who are PCP Capital Partners and if they're so rich, why don't they up their offer?

 

Let's be brutally honest: we know very little about Amanda Staveley or PCP Capital Partners. What we do know - which feels quite exciting - has come from briefings encouraged by her own people, so have to - in my opinion - be taken with a pinch of salt. But my understanding is they're serious business people looking to make NUFC profitable by sensible but substantial investment. I don't think it would be a case of a Man City-style bonanza: I'm fairly certain the club would need to be profitable down the line

And that, ladies and gents, is why she won't "just pay the price" Mike Ashley wants. After long due diligence her valuation is, she believes, a sensible one. She won't pay more.

 

What happened in December when the deal was reported as 'almost done'?

 

There was a surge of excitement based on progress made in talks between the two parties. Agreements seemed to be in place and people very important to the deal seemed to be agreeing that we were very close. But the excitement subsided because - crucially - the price remained the sticking point.

Based on what happened in those few days, you feel a deal could get done very quickly. But at the same time, all parties are a bit more cautious now.

 

Will it get done?

 

The £350m question. My educated guess is it will but if it drags towards the end of the season, a lot will depend where Newcastle are in the league, if they stay in the Premier League and if Ashley fancies waiting it out to see how lucrative the new TV deal is and lots of other factors. Unless there's a big breakthrough when Ashley returns from the US (not inconceivable), we might have a few more weeks of uncertainty yet.

 

Why the social media rumours?

 

Some are undoubtedly well-intentioned. Micky Quinn's update on Friday night was interesting: he knows a few of the Rafa circle and people around the takeover (they were also interested in a Liverpool takeover) but there's a lot of nervousness and jumpiness and I think there's been a few social media ITK accounts jumping on that of late to perhaps build up their followings among NUFC fans (it is January, prime time for this nonsense), which is not really responsible.

Tyneside is always like this about Newcastle United. I've lost count of the number of times I've been told something is gospel when someone at the club who is the focus of the rumour has literally told me the exact opposite!

It's frustrating, I get it. But we'll check out, source and double source everything we hear. And then report it whether it's perceived as good or bad news.

 

Is it armageddon if it doesn't get done?

 

So Mike Ashley stays and it's the end of NUFC, right? Well not quite. I think it's time for him to go and let someone with fresh finance and initiative have a go. United desperately need that and I think Ashley recognises that. It says it all that Staveley has been at SJP more than Ashley this season, with the latter not even turning up for the club's 125th birthday celebrations.

If Ashley is still here at the end of the season, Newcastle's financial situation will change if they stay up. Guaranteed PL TV money would give them more financial clout in the market and they'd be better off than they were last summer or will be this January.

I think Rafa will honour his contract (which ends in 18 months) even if Ashley remains because he likes NUFC, feels he owes a debt of gratitude and is enjoying the challenge. Yes, he's frustrated but I'm researching an article this week which shows that he's been through this kind of thing before. And at Newcastle he has virtually 100% approval and an almost unquestioning fan base. That's huge for any manager in this day and age.

All of this presupposes the club staying up. I don't have answers about what happens if relegation occurs, which is the worrying sub-plot to all of this. Then it feels as if all bets might be off about everything.

But if NUFC stay up I think they'll be in a better position in the summer of 2018. Marginally if Ashley remains. Substantially if there are new owners and they are as serious as they insist they are.

As long as he's here, Ashley probably won't see the sort of protest that preceded Benitez. Which is ironic, isn't it?

It's about potential and maximising Newcastle's. Ashley knows he can't do it, so must sell. Until someone else comes in - or Ashley has a massive change of heart and invests or hands Rafa the freedom to restructure as he understood he would get - we're all just waiting. And that's the frustrating part.

 

The know it all tone from some of the journos is really annoying

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