Various: Mike Ashley in talks with Sheikh Khaled bin Zayed Al Nehayan

[Kanji]

They clearly haven't found anything that causes them unsurmountable concern just yet, but everything they find will be feeding into their belief of what the club is worth. As has been pointed out before, if they get to the end of all of this process and in their opinion taking everything into account it's only worth £250m then I would imagine it'll all be over.

 

However considering how blunt Ashley is, one would imagine how much he wants to clear off has already been made quite clear and if the valuations were so far apart why bother going through due diligence?

 

The headline price will already be agreed. It will almost certainly change (or the terms of the deal will) after DD. That's completely normal.

 

Due Diligence is actually quite an expensive exercise in it's own right so the two parties will almost certainly have outline agreement on price otherwise AS etc would not have gone to the cost of engaging forensic accountants, lawyers and the countless other people surrounding the deal.

 

The fact it's not fallen over yet is incredibly positive and would indicate that there may be a degree of flexibility from Ashley just to get the thing done. This would be a marked change in his normal approach ('my way or the highway').

 

I'd question whether or not there could be another party also doing DD though. That may well be the case. As with everything involving Ashley, it's unlikely to be straight forward nor clean cut.

 

What is overwhelmingly positive is that its now very clear that these are TAKEOVER talks and not INVESTMENT talks which is what he'd hinted at many times previously, most recently in that contrived bullshit with Sky Sports.

 

In my mind, that would be worst case scenario, even worse than the status quo.

 

100% agree with Minhosa here and was typing up something earlier but got sidetracked.

 

Based on everything I've done in my career, I just have never seen a Seller ever willing to give up this much full detail if there wasn't an agreement on price or loose valuation agreement in place. Further, no Buyer will want to be spending this much time and money in DD without it in writing (LOI / Heads of Terms) or it would be a waste of time for all. Finally, I'm sure AS/PCP would want exclusivity security but I assume that is not in place with the multiple groups around and MA probably gaming a bit with the supposed other parties also looking at the club and in DD.

[Kanji]

My guess based on M&A transactions I've done before in terms of process and applying to this situation here:

 

1) Seller / MA intends to sell, hires bank or internally prepares to sell

2) Interested Parties are contacted / get into contact, and show some sort of proof of funds / capability / etc. and verbal on ability to obtain pricing guidance?

3) NDA negotiated and Signed on both ends, Initial Diligence Info Released

4) Buyer initiates a preliminary call for offers to get indication on valuation by buyers

5) Buyers submit an LOI / Heads of Terms

6) Lose agreement in place? (usually have a contract in place or negotiating at this point over here in the US)

7) Deeper full diligence info release?  30 day timing; Buyer looking at EVERYTHING

8) Diligence period over, Buyer may change valuation and say will move forward to closing based on X price and will waive all other contingencies to close

9) Seller reviews, amends agreement if necessary

10) CLOSE

 

We're likely around step 7 or 8 IMO based on timing of when this crap was released and the info sprinkled in the press.

[Guest Howaythetoon]

As ever thanks to yours and Minhosa's insight into things. Do you believe we will be sold before January Kanji?

[Charlies]

My guess based on M&A transactions I've done before in terms of process and applying to this situation here:

 

1) Seller / MA intends to sell, hires bank or internally prepares to sell

2) Interested Parties are contacted / get into contact, and show some sort of proof of funds / capability / etc. and verbal on ability to obtain pricing guidance?

3) NDA negotiated and Signed on both ends, Initial Diligence Info Released

4) Buyer initiates a preliminary call for offers to get indication on valuation by buyers

5) Buyers submit an LOI / Heads of Terms

6) Lose agreement in place? (usually have a contract in place or negotiating at this point over here in the US)

7) Deeper full diligence info release?  30 day timing; Buyer looking at EVERYTHING

8) Diligence period over, Buyer may change valuation and say will move forward to closing based on X price and will waive all other contingencies to close

9) Seller reviews, amends agreement if necessary

10) CLOSE

 

We're likely around step 7 or 8 IMO based on timing of when this crap was released and the info sprinkled in the press.

 

cheers for that.

 

Ryder again; Wrote last week that the FA know about the takeover bid. There is no exact date available but they have the documents as we speak.

 

Does this mean the FA are now conducting  checks on the potential new owner? I mean first he said they had been notified & now they have documents..

[Kanji]

As ever thanks to yours and Minhosa's insight into things. Do you believe we will be sold before January Kanji?

 

Of course - just trying to offer any bit of insight into a process like this to help people understand what the hell is going or why it would take so long.

 

At this point, I have just about as much info as you all do - and that's whats said in the press and on twitter.

 

My heart says we'll be sold before January, I'm also an eternal optimist. Speaking purely from the business side of this, I just don't see how Mike Ashley gets any more money for the club if he doesn't close on this sale during this process with his top bidder here (assuming its AS/PCP). He will have to put in MORE money in January (to ensure PL safety) and if he gambles on that and we somehow fall apart and go down, he'll NEVER get 300m+ for this club again because it will also likely mean he loses Rafa and has to put in more money into the club.

 

But again, your guess is as good as mine man, we are all looking at the same info in the press/twitter/on here - I wish I knew more! I've asked all of my broker contacts who do RE transactions who are London based and they all repeat the same thing to me and that AS is the real deal and her capital partners are well capitalized and have more than enough money to own a successful football club.

[Greg]

My guess based on M&A transactions I've done before in terms of process and applying to this situation here:

 

1) Seller / MA intends to sell, hires bank or internally prepares to sell

2) Interested Parties are contacted / get into contact, and show some sort of proof of funds / capability / etc. and verbal on ability to obtain pricing guidance?

3) NDA negotiated and Signed on both ends, Initial Diligence Info Released

4) Buyer initiates a preliminary call for offers to get indication on valuation by buyers

5) Buyers submit an LOI / Heads of Terms

6) Lose agreement in place? (usually have a contract in place or negotiating at this point over here in the US)

7) Deeper full diligence info release?  30 day timing; Buyer looking at EVERYTHING

8) Diligence period over, Buyer may change valuation and say will move forward to closing based on X price and will waive all other contingencies to close

9) Seller reviews, amends agreement if necessary

10) CLOSE

 

We're likely around step 7 or 8 IMO based on timing of when this crap was released and the info sprinkled in the press.

 

cheers for that.

 

Ryder again; Wrote last week that the FA know about the takeover bid. There is no exact date available but they have the documents as we speak.

 

Does this mean the FA are now conducting  checks on the potential new owner? I mean first he said they had been notified & now they have documents..

 

It FA fit and proper test should be a formality, even with the rules be tightened recently. In general terms they would only usually fail if:

 

They have power or influence over another Football League club

They hold a significant interest in another Football League club

They become prohibited by law from being a director

They are filing for bankruptcy

They have been director of a club while it has suffered two or more unconnected events of insolvency

They have been a director of two or more clubs of which, while they have been director, has suffered an event of insolvency

[Guest Howaythetoon]

As ever thanks to yours and Minhosa's insight into things. Do you believe we will be sold before January Kanji?

 

Of course - just trying to offer any bit of insight into a process like this to help people understand what the hell is going or why it would take so long.

 

At this point, I have just about as much info as you all do - and that's whats said in the press and on twitter.

 

My heart says we'll be sold before January, I'm also an eternal optimist. Speaking purely from the business side of this, I just don't see how Mike Ashley gets any more money for the club if he doesn't close on this sale during this process with his top bidder here (assuming its AS/PCP). He will have to put in MORE money in January (to ensure PL safety) and if he gambles on that and we somehow fall apart and go down, he'll NEVER get 300m+ for this club again because it will also likely mean he loses Rafa and has to put in more money into the club.

 

But again, your guess is as good as mine man, we are all looking at the same info in the press/twitter/on here - I wish I knew more! I've asked all of my broker contacts who do RE transactions who are London based and they all repeat the same thing to me and that she's the real deal, she has access to insane amount of middle east capital partners, etc.

 

Cheers man, I share your optimism. The way I see it its win win for Ashley if he sells up now for the rumoured kind of price. If he stays, I can only see darker days ahead. Rafa leaving, relegation, sub 30k attendances and mass protests and him being way out of pocket. Fingers crossed eh!

[Minhosa]

My guess based on M&A transactions I've done before in terms of process and applying to this situation here:

 

1) Seller / MA intends to sell, hires bank or internally prepares to sell

2) Interested Parties are contacted / get into contact, and show some sort of proof of funds / capability / etc. and verbal on ability to obtain pricing guidance?

3) NDA negotiated and Signed on both ends, Initial Diligence Info Released

4) Buyer initiates a preliminary call for offers to get indication on valuation by buyers

5) Buyers submit an LOI / Heads of Terms

6) Lose agreement in place? (usually have a contract in place or negotiating at this point over here in the US)

7) Deeper full diligence info release?  30 day timing; Buyer looking at EVERYTHING

8) Diligence period over, Buyer may change valuation and say will move forward to closing based on X price and will waive all other contingencies to close

9) Seller reviews, amends agreement if necessary

10) CLOSE

 

We're likely around step 7 or 8 IMO based on timing of when this crap was released and the info sprinkled in the press.

 

Yup - agree with that.

[Minhosa]

My guess based on M&A transactions I've done before in terms of process and applying to this situation here:

 

1) Seller / MA intends to sell, hires bank or internally prepares to sell

2) Interested Parties are contacted / get into contact, and show some sort of proof of funds / capability / etc. and verbal on ability to obtain pricing guidance?

3) NDA negotiated and Signed on both ends, Initial Diligence Info Released

4) Buyer initiates a preliminary call for offers to get indication on valuation by buyers

5) Buyers submit an LOI / Heads of Terms

6) Lose agreement in place? (usually have a contract in place or negotiating at this point over here in the US)

7) Deeper full diligence info release?  30 day timing; Buyer looking at EVERYTHING

8) Diligence period over, Buyer may change valuation and say will move forward to closing based on X price and will waive all other contingencies to close

9) Seller reviews, amends agreement if necessary

10) CLOSE

 

We're likely around step 7 or 8 IMO based on timing of when this crap was released and the info sprinkled in the press.

 

cheers for that.

 

Ryder again; Wrote last week that the FA know about the takeover bid. There is no exact date available but they have the documents as we speak.

 

Does this mean the FA are now conducting  checks on the potential new owner? I mean first he said they had been notified & now they have documents..

 

I think the FA stuff is a bit of a red herring really, in reporting terms. It'll be a formality so I doubt anyone see's it as anything other than a very minor hurdle in the whole scheme of things so, imho, Ryder is just using it for an article when, in fact, it's less than 0.1% of the process in terms of importance.

[Minhosa]

As ever thanks to yours and Minhosa's insight into things. Do you believe we will be sold before January Kanji?

 

Of course - just trying to offer any bit of insight into a process like this to help people understand what the hell is going or why it would take so long.

 

At this point, I have just about as much info as you all do - and that's whats said in the press and on twitter.

 

My heart says we'll be sold before January, I'm also an eternal optimist. Speaking purely from the business side of this, I just don't see how Mike Ashley gets any more money for the club if he doesn't close on this sale during this process with his top bidder here (assuming its AS/PCP). He will have to put in MORE money in January (to ensure PL safety) and if he gambles on that and we somehow fall apart and go down, he'll NEVER get 300m+ for this club again because it will also likely mean he loses Rafa and has to put in more money into the club.

 

But again, your guess is as good as mine man, we are all looking at the same info in the press/twitter/on here - I wish I knew more! I've asked all of my broker contacts who do RE transactions who are London based and they all repeat the same thing to me and that AS is the real deal and her capital partners are well capitalized and have more than enough money to own a successful football club.

 

I'm also in total agreement with this except for a very small doubt in mind due to the renegade attitude of our owner.

 

My gut feel is that this will happen. I don't think it would've gone this far without his headspace being such that he want's to do a deal.

 

Also, from a purely commercial viewpoint, now is a very good point to sell it.

 

He's going to get maximum value for something he was prepared to sell for £90m to Barry Moat the last time we went down.

 

He should be laughing all the way to the bank.

[Kanji]

Good to hear you think same too based on your knowledge of process and gut feeling too.

[ExiledGeordie]

 

Cheers to the lads here with the business acumen for explaining the whole process ?

[Kanji]

should fly over for the celebrations

[Pixelphish]

I cant wait for the GIF's

[Yorkie]

My heart says we'll be sold before January, I'm also an eternal optimist. Speaking purely from the business side of this, I just don't see how Mike Ashley gets any more money for the club if he doesn't close on this sale during this process with his top bidder here (assuming its AS/PCP). He will have to put in MORE money in January (to ensure PL safety) and if he gambles on that and we somehow fall apart and go down, he'll NEVER get 300m+ for this club again because it will also likely mean he loses Rafa and has to put in more money into the club.

 

When you put it like this, it makes absolute sense as to why he'd want to sell now. Plus ten year milestone, time to move on, typething.

 

I think we'll sell and I think it'll be miles away from that initial figure of £400m.

[IneedAbed]

All part of thorough diligence and underwriting of a purchase of a business or entity and not unusual. They'll be making sure old deals aren't going to come up to bite them or there aren't any change of control payments, fees, or other outstanding loose ends that will require money or any undue legal action.

 

Yep seems pretty standard stuff, unless of course you are Mike Ashley.

 

 

The one that always got on my tits was him moaning about repayment for the SJP extension that became due on change of ownership, when surely any basic check would have discovered that.

 

This shouldn't go unnoticed, he knew about the repayment due but claiming ignorance and assigning blame elsewhere is what he has always done .

I would donate a tenner to a fuck off mike Ashley flag or anything of similar tone

[STM]

I'm, not so secretly, hoping for a Robinho type buy in January, where PCP essentially put a down payment on the club before the things are rubber stamped.

[Hughesy]

Given the timelines that I've worked to on actual DD exercises, the DD should be coming to a close quite soon (if the start dates we were given are correct). To a degree, DD can fill the gap you leave for it, but over a month for a business like NUFC would be unusual. As I've said before, NUFC is a relatively straightforward business with clearly defined income streams.

[mrmojorisin75]

My approach to this atm is basically the longer it goes without the club or one of Ashley's goons denying it then the closer it is to happening.

 

I reckon it's gonna be a decent Christmas this year.

 

[Ikon]

At what date did the DD start? (what we think) I don't remember.

[Charlies]

It'll be a great anniversary present if its announced on the day of the 125th year celebrations, honestly feel like we're heading towards the end of Ashley.

 

I'm still confused as to who is behind the bid, whether its PCP as a company or they're  acting on behalf of another. Guess we'll find out soon.

[Sir Toon]

Mukesh Ambani coming in with a late bid...

 

I would take that.  I even said so last month.    http://www.newcastle-online.org/nufcforum/index.php/topic,90600.24600.html

[Dokko]

Was never gonna be announced until I'm a Celeb started again so we can see Ant & Dec celebrating the news live on TV.

[number9shirt]

Was never gonna be announced until I'm a Celeb started again so we can see Ant & Dec celebrating the news live on TV.

Just after feeding dennis wise a fermented kangaroo's dick

[Dokko]

Was never gonna be announced until I'm a Celeb started again so we can see Ant & Dec celebrating the news live on TV.

Just after feeding dennis wise a fermented kangaroo's dick

 

The stars are aligning.