Gallowgate End Posted December 24, 2019 Share Posted December 24, 2019 If I saw someone come in and play a new formation and saw lots of things that he’s done coaching wise that has improved us then I’d say fair enough but Bruce hasn’t done that. If Graham Potter was Newcastle manager and had us playing like Brighton I’d have to praise him because you can see his coaching deserves praise. With Bruce there’s hardly anything I can see that deserves praise everything that’s good about us he inherited he hasn’t coached anything good into us that I can praise. How many managers have gone in and played the exact same system as the previous manager a formation that he’d never played in his life before. Bruce is just a fraud that’s living off the good things he inherited. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
John P Posted December 24, 2019 Share Posted December 24, 2019 I’m getting a public hanging on Twitter for this tweet about local hero Brucie I replied to someone on Twitter talking about Bruce. I mentioned xG and xPoints to highlight the fact that we're in a bit of a false position and was met by several replies along the lines of "Actual goals and points matter, give Bruce a break!!!", "That is the most ridiculous stat anyone could come up with - a pointless statistic", "Stop looking at stats and start looking at results". Twitter is full of fucking morons. I won't be commenting on anything again as I can't be arsed explaining how xG is actually a really good indicator and predictor of a side's true performance to some fucking imbecile. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gallowgate End Posted December 24, 2019 Share Posted December 24, 2019 I’m getting a public hanging on Twitter for this tweet about local hero Brucie I replied to someone on Twitter talking about Bruce. I mentioned xG and xPoints to highlight the fact that we're in a bit of a false position and was met by several replies along the lines of "Actual goals and points matter, give Bruce a break!!!", "That is the most ridiculous stat anyone could come up with - a pointless statistic", "Stop looking at stats and start looking at results". Twitter is full of fucking morons. I won't be commenting on anything again as I can't be arsed explaining how xG is actually a really good indicator and predictor of a side's true performance to some fucking imbecile. Some of the replies are fantastically simple minded Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
xLiaaamx Posted December 24, 2019 Share Posted December 24, 2019 I get the point but I still don't trust xG. All it does is show how good you are creatively. It takes finishing ability and keeping/blocking ability out of it. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hhtoon Posted December 24, 2019 Share Posted December 24, 2019 I'm just shocked you're not posting that we're 8th for goals conceded. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gallowgate End Posted December 24, 2019 Share Posted December 24, 2019 I'm just shocked you're not posting that we're 8th for goals conceded. Aye it was Bruce who made us good defensively.... Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andy Posted December 24, 2019 Share Posted December 24, 2019 I’m getting a public hanging on Twitter for this tweet about local hero Brucie I replied to someone on Twitter talking about Bruce. I mentioned xG and xPoints to highlight the fact that we're in a bit of a false position and was met by several replies along the lines of "Actual goals and points matter, give Bruce a break!!!", "That is the most ridiculous stat anyone could come up with - a pointless statistic", "Stop looking at stats and start looking at results". Twitter is full of fucking morons. I won't be commenting on anything again as I can't be arsed explaining how xG is actually a really good indicator and predictor of a side's true performance to some fucking imbecile. In all honesty, until the bad results are there on paper you're never going to convince anyone with statistics or predictors. Most formulas would've had us losing a number of games this season that we won or drew - they don't really prove anything and certainly aren't going to make people go "oh yeah, you're right" if they're of a different mindset. People will turn on Bruce, it'll happen, but it'll happen as a result of his performance in terms of hard wins and losses, not by people being talked into it. The more you try to convince people, the more they'll resist, especially when we're currently sat 9th in the league after a decent run of form and are 10 points clear of the bottom three by Christmas. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hhtoon Posted December 24, 2019 Share Posted December 24, 2019 I'm just shocked you're not posting that we're 8th for goals conceded. Aye it was Bruce who made us good defensively.... But he made us worse attacking.... Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hhtoon Posted December 24, 2019 Share Posted December 24, 2019 I have to stress I'm not a Bruce fan, but selective stats are pointless. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
TRon Posted December 24, 2019 Share Posted December 24, 2019 I have to stress I'm not a Bruce fan, but selective stats are pointless. Watching Newcastle is pointless. For all we are sitting 9th in the table, seems like we've lost about 7000 fans coming through the turnstiles week in week out. I wonder how many of the Bruce twitter fans actually have to sit through 90mins of football on match days? Fair play to them if they do, I'd genuinely like to know what they get out of it. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
clintdempsey Posted December 24, 2019 Share Posted December 24, 2019 For all this talk about xG (which I agree is often a good indicator of form) there's one team overperforming even more than us. Hardly see anyone mention it in regards to Liverpool though which I find a bit weird? Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteV Posted December 24, 2019 Share Posted December 24, 2019 XG isn’t perfect but it it’s the best predictor we have of form. Outperforming it is basically unsustainable. See OGS Agreed that in isolation, it does often indicate your performance will level off at some point. However, I think the longer you ‘outperform’ it, the more chance that that doesn’t happen. See Leicester’s title-winning season. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
DJ_NUFC Posted December 24, 2019 Share Posted December 24, 2019 XG isn’t perfect but it it’s the best predictor we have of form. Outperforming it is basically unsustainable. See OGS Agreed that in isolation, it does often indicate your performance will level off at some point. However, I think the longer you ‘outperform’ it, the more chance that that doesn’t happen. See Leicester’s title-winning season. Eh? Leicester were playing fabulous football, creating loads of chances and Vardy banging them in. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteV Posted December 24, 2019 Share Posted December 24, 2019 XG isn’t perfect but it it’s the best predictor we have of form. Outperforming it is basically unsustainable. See OGS Agreed that in isolation, it does often indicate your performance will level off at some point. However, I think the longer you ‘outperform’ it, the more chance that that doesn’t happen. See Leicester’s title-winning season. Eh? Leicester were playing fabulous football, creating loads of chances and Vardy banging them in. Xg had them finishing 4th, about 8 points behind Arsenal, if memory serves. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest poor Posted December 24, 2019 Share Posted December 24, 2019 I'm just shocked you're not posting that we're 8th for goals conceded. joint 7th last season. shocking regression Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hhtoon Posted December 24, 2019 Share Posted December 24, 2019 I'm just shocked you're not posting that we're 8th for goals conceded. joint 7th last season. shocking regression What's comparing to last season got to do with anything? Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Optimistic Nut Posted December 24, 2019 Share Posted December 24, 2019 xP Liverpool are 8 adrift at the top. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mattoon Posted December 24, 2019 Share Posted December 24, 2019 This thread is the gift that keeps on giving, so not only are we still comparing a diamond to a cabbage, now we're comparing our form to Leicesters title winning team and suggesting that xG doesn't matter in the grand scheme of things (so long as our defenders play up front)?! Some great regens in this Christmas, loony bin had a ban lift on mobile devices? :lol: Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
LV Posted December 24, 2019 Share Posted December 24, 2019 The regens arrived around the time Rafa left and the takeover saga reached its conclusion. More arrived when Bruce was appointed. Strange huh? Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
John P Posted December 25, 2019 Share Posted December 25, 2019 XG isn’t perfect but it it’s the best predictor we have of form. Outperforming it is basically unsustainable. See OGS See also Sunderland last season. When they were in the automatic promotion places this time last year the guy who owns Statsbomb said they were massively overperforming their xG and that they would almost inevitably tail off in the second half of the season. Look at them now. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteV Posted December 25, 2019 Share Posted December 25, 2019 This thread is the gift that keeps on giving, so not only are we still comparing a diamond to a cabbage, now we're comparing our form to Leicesters title winning team and suggesting that xG doesn't matter in the grand scheme of things (so long as our defenders play up front)?! Some great regens in this Christmas, loony bin had a ban lift on mobile devices? :lol: Wilfully misinterpreting what’s been said. The point about Leicester was that they are proof that you can outperform Xg over a season, see even more so Man Utd in 17/18, so it’s not necessarily ‘inevitable’ that you will tail-off because you’re currently outperforming Xg. Xg is a useful metric, but it’s far from an exact science. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cronky Posted December 25, 2019 Share Posted December 25, 2019 I think the xG stat is interesting, in that with the main over-performers - Liverpool, Leicester and ourselves - their chief strength is the ability to counter-attack with pace. Rather than say that's not relevant, it perhaps suggests that the formula that the statisticians use doesn't take into account that the sort of chances that are created on the counter attack are far more likely to be converted than the ones created through a slow build-up. Three against three is more likely to result in a goal than ten against ten. Likewise counter-attacking is less likely to lead to a team over-committing and leaving their defence vulnerable. The difference between the three sides is the quality of the players. We struggle to retain possession and create chances any other way, whereas the other two don't. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteV Posted December 25, 2019 Share Posted December 25, 2019 This thread is the gift that keeps on giving, so not only are we still comparing a diamond to a cabbage, now we're comparing our form to Leicesters title winning team and suggesting that xG doesn't matter in the grand scheme of things (so long as our defenders play up front)?! Some great regens in this Christmas, loony bin had a ban lift on mobile devices? :lol: Wilfully misinterpreting what’s been said. The point about Leicester was that they are proof that you can outperform Xg over a season, see even more so Man Utd in 17/18, so it’s not necessarily ‘inevitable’ that you will tail-off because you’re currently outperforming Xg. Xg is a useful metric, but it’s far from an exact science. So the one team that basically won the league in the most miraculous of seasons ever, against all the odds prove that it’s not an exact science. There’s always a statistical anomaly in everything Or as mentioned, Man Utd two seasons ago. Liverpool last season and so far this season. Burnley when they finished 7th etc. etc. I’m not dismissing Xg, it absolutely has some merit, it’s just not the be all and end all definitive metric. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cronky Posted December 25, 2019 Share Posted December 25, 2019 This thread is the gift that keeps on giving, so not only are we still comparing a diamond to a cabbage, now we're comparing our form to Leicesters title winning team and suggesting that xG doesn't matter in the grand scheme of things (so long as our defenders play up front)?! Some great regens in this Christmas, loony bin had a ban lift on mobile devices? :lol: Wilfully misinterpreting what’s been said. The point about Leicester was that they are proof that you can outperform Xg over a season, see even more so Man Utd in 17/18, so it’s not necessarily ‘inevitable’ that you will tail-off because you’re currently outperforming Xg. Xg is a useful metric, but it’s far from an exact science. So the one team that basically won the league in the most miraculous of seasons ever, against all the odds prove that it’s not an exact science. There’s always a statistical anomaly in everything In a sense, statistics are exact, but they're only as good as the quality of the information that is put in. In this, I suspect that, in addition to the factor of luck (which can exist even in the course of a whole season), the information that's inputted doesn't quite have the predictive value that is claimed. With Leicester there were other factors that season that were influential in their success. They won with 81 points, which wouldn't be enough now. At the time, the bigger clubs were all in a state of some transition and that opened up an opportunity. They were also remarkably free from injuries, didn't have the distraction of cup runs or European games, weren't under the same pressure as the bigger clubs, and had players in Kante and Vardy who were far better than everyone was expecting. Being underdogs, I also felt that referees were treating them with some leniency. All those factors are unlikely to come together again for some time. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteV Posted December 25, 2019 Share Posted December 25, 2019 This thread is the gift that keeps on giving, so not only are we still comparing a diamond to a cabbage, now we're comparing our form to Leicesters title winning team and suggesting that xG doesn't matter in the grand scheme of things (so long as our defenders play up front)?! Some great regens in this Christmas, loony bin had a ban lift on mobile devices? :lol: Wilfully misinterpreting what’s been said. The point about Leicester was that they are proof that you can outperform Xg over a season, see even more so Man Utd in 17/18, so it’s not necessarily ‘inevitable’ that you will tail-off because you’re currently outperforming Xg. Xg is a useful metric, but it’s far from an exact science. So the one team that basically won the league in the most miraculous of seasons ever, against all the odds prove that it’s not an exact science. There’s always a statistical anomaly in everything In a sense, statistics are exact, but they're only as good as the quality of the information that is put in. In this, I suspect that, in addition to the factor of luck (which can exist even in the course of a whole season), the information that's inputted doesn't quite have the predictive value that is claimed. With Leicester there were other factors that season that were influential in their success. They won with 81 points, which wouldn't be enough now. At the time, the bigger clubs were all in a state of some transition and that opened up an opportunity. They were also remarkably free from injuries, didn't have the distraction of cup runs or European games, weren't under the same pressure as the bigger clubs, and had players in Kante and Vardy who were far better than everyone was expecting. Being underdogs, I also felt that referees were treating them with some leniency. All those factors are unlikely to come together again for some time. Indeed. The ‘perfect storm’ scenario. As we benefited from when finishing 5th. But if that’s the case so be it, you’ve still deserved it. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
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