SteV Posted December 24, 2019 Share Posted December 24, 2019 XG isn’t perfect but it it’s the best predictor we have of form. Outperforming it is basically unsustainable. See OGS Agreed that in isolation, it does often indicate your performance will level off at some point. However, I think the longer you ‘outperform’ it, the more chance that that doesn’t happen. See Leicester’s title-winning season. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
DJ_NUFC Posted December 24, 2019 Share Posted December 24, 2019 XG isn’t perfect but it it’s the best predictor we have of form. Outperforming it is basically unsustainable. See OGS Agreed that in isolation, it does often indicate your performance will level off at some point. However, I think the longer you ‘outperform’ it, the more chance that that doesn’t happen. See Leicester’s title-winning season. Eh? Leicester were playing fabulous football, creating loads of chances and Vardy banging them in. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteV Posted December 24, 2019 Share Posted December 24, 2019 XG isn’t perfect but it it’s the best predictor we have of form. Outperforming it is basically unsustainable. See OGS Agreed that in isolation, it does often indicate your performance will level off at some point. However, I think the longer you ‘outperform’ it, the more chance that that doesn’t happen. See Leicester’s title-winning season. Eh? Leicester were playing fabulous football, creating loads of chances and Vardy banging them in. Xg had them finishing 4th, about 8 points behind Arsenal, if memory serves. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest poor Posted December 24, 2019 Share Posted December 24, 2019 I'm just shocked you're not posting that we're 8th for goals conceded. joint 7th last season. shocking regression Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hhtoon Posted December 24, 2019 Share Posted December 24, 2019 I'm just shocked you're not posting that we're 8th for goals conceded. joint 7th last season. shocking regression What's comparing to last season got to do with anything? Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted December 24, 2019 Share Posted December 24, 2019 xP Liverpool are 8 adrift at the top. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mattoon Posted December 24, 2019 Share Posted December 24, 2019 This thread is the gift that keeps on giving, so not only are we still comparing a diamond to a cabbage, now we're comparing our form to Leicesters title winning team and suggesting that xG doesn't matter in the grand scheme of things (so long as our defenders play up front)?! Some great regens in this Christmas, loony bin had a ban lift on mobile devices? :lol: Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
LV Posted December 24, 2019 Share Posted December 24, 2019 The regens arrived around the time Rafa left and the takeover saga reached its conclusion. More arrived when Bruce was appointed. Strange huh? Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
John P Posted December 25, 2019 Share Posted December 25, 2019 XG isn’t perfect but it it’s the best predictor we have of form. Outperforming it is basically unsustainable. See OGS See also Sunderland last season. When they were in the automatic promotion places this time last year the guy who owns Statsbomb said they were massively overperforming their xG and that they would almost inevitably tail off in the second half of the season. Look at them now. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteV Posted December 25, 2019 Share Posted December 25, 2019 This thread is the gift that keeps on giving, so not only are we still comparing a diamond to a cabbage, now we're comparing our form to Leicesters title winning team and suggesting that xG doesn't matter in the grand scheme of things (so long as our defenders play up front)?! Some great regens in this Christmas, loony bin had a ban lift on mobile devices? :lol: Wilfully misinterpreting what’s been said. The point about Leicester was that they are proof that you can outperform Xg over a season, see even more so Man Utd in 17/18, so it’s not necessarily ‘inevitable’ that you will tail-off because you’re currently outperforming Xg. Xg is a useful metric, but it’s far from an exact science. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cronky Posted December 25, 2019 Share Posted December 25, 2019 I think the xG stat is interesting, in that with the main over-performers - Liverpool, Leicester and ourselves - their chief strength is the ability to counter-attack with pace. Rather than say that's not relevant, it perhaps suggests that the formula that the statisticians use doesn't take into account that the sort of chances that are created on the counter attack are far more likely to be converted than the ones created through a slow build-up. Three against three is more likely to result in a goal than ten against ten. Likewise counter-attacking is less likely to lead to a team over-committing and leaving their defence vulnerable. The difference between the three sides is the quality of the players. We struggle to retain possession and create chances any other way, whereas the other two don't. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteV Posted December 25, 2019 Share Posted December 25, 2019 This thread is the gift that keeps on giving, so not only are we still comparing a diamond to a cabbage, now we're comparing our form to Leicesters title winning team and suggesting that xG doesn't matter in the grand scheme of things (so long as our defenders play up front)?! Some great regens in this Christmas, loony bin had a ban lift on mobile devices? :lol: Wilfully misinterpreting what’s been said. The point about Leicester was that they are proof that you can outperform Xg over a season, see even more so Man Utd in 17/18, so it’s not necessarily ‘inevitable’ that you will tail-off because you’re currently outperforming Xg. Xg is a useful metric, but it’s far from an exact science. So the one team that basically won the league in the most miraculous of seasons ever, against all the odds prove that it’s not an exact science. There’s always a statistical anomaly in everything Or as mentioned, Man Utd two seasons ago. Liverpool last season and so far this season. Burnley when they finished 7th etc. etc. I’m not dismissing Xg, it absolutely has some merit, it’s just not the be all and end all definitive metric. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cronky Posted December 25, 2019 Share Posted December 25, 2019 This thread is the gift that keeps on giving, so not only are we still comparing a diamond to a cabbage, now we're comparing our form to Leicesters title winning team and suggesting that xG doesn't matter in the grand scheme of things (so long as our defenders play up front)?! Some great regens in this Christmas, loony bin had a ban lift on mobile devices? :lol: Wilfully misinterpreting what’s been said. The point about Leicester was that they are proof that you can outperform Xg over a season, see even more so Man Utd in 17/18, so it’s not necessarily ‘inevitable’ that you will tail-off because you’re currently outperforming Xg. Xg is a useful metric, but it’s far from an exact science. So the one team that basically won the league in the most miraculous of seasons ever, against all the odds prove that it’s not an exact science. There’s always a statistical anomaly in everything In a sense, statistics are exact, but they're only as good as the quality of the information that is put in. In this, I suspect that, in addition to the factor of luck (which can exist even in the course of a whole season), the information that's inputted doesn't quite have the predictive value that is claimed. With Leicester there were other factors that season that were influential in their success. They won with 81 points, which wouldn't be enough now. At the time, the bigger clubs were all in a state of some transition and that opened up an opportunity. They were also remarkably free from injuries, didn't have the distraction of cup runs or European games, weren't under the same pressure as the bigger clubs, and had players in Kante and Vardy who were far better than everyone was expecting. Being underdogs, I also felt that referees were treating them with some leniency. All those factors are unlikely to come together again for some time. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteV Posted December 25, 2019 Share Posted December 25, 2019 This thread is the gift that keeps on giving, so not only are we still comparing a diamond to a cabbage, now we're comparing our form to Leicesters title winning team and suggesting that xG doesn't matter in the grand scheme of things (so long as our defenders play up front)?! Some great regens in this Christmas, loony bin had a ban lift on mobile devices? :lol: Wilfully misinterpreting what’s been said. The point about Leicester was that they are proof that you can outperform Xg over a season, see even more so Man Utd in 17/18, so it’s not necessarily ‘inevitable’ that you will tail-off because you’re currently outperforming Xg. Xg is a useful metric, but it’s far from an exact science. So the one team that basically won the league in the most miraculous of seasons ever, against all the odds prove that it’s not an exact science. There’s always a statistical anomaly in everything In a sense, statistics are exact, but they're only as good as the quality of the information that is put in. In this, I suspect that, in addition to the factor of luck (which can exist even in the course of a whole season), the information that's inputted doesn't quite have the predictive value that is claimed. With Leicester there were other factors that season that were influential in their success. They won with 81 points, which wouldn't be enough now. At the time, the bigger clubs were all in a state of some transition and that opened up an opportunity. They were also remarkably free from injuries, didn't have the distraction of cup runs or European games, weren't under the same pressure as the bigger clubs, and had players in Kante and Vardy who were far better than everyone was expecting. Being underdogs, I also felt that referees were treating them with some leniency. All those factors are unlikely to come together again for some time. Indeed. The ‘perfect storm’ scenario. As we benefited from when finishing 5th. But if that’s the case so be it, you’ve still deserved it. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
TBG Posted December 25, 2019 Share Posted December 25, 2019 “I just want to say a big thank you to the supporters and Chronicle readers at Christmas,” he said. “Most of the supporters – well all of them that I’ve bumped into in the street – wish me well and at this time of year I’d like to wish them well over the festive period. I wish them when, I hope they have a great Christmas and I look forward to catching up with all of them soon. “We’ve got a quite unique support and that brings expectation with it. That’s what I’m trying to achieve anyway. When you have games and moments like Saturday, it can only try to bring the supporters back. “Our supporters will always back the team. If there is a repair job to be done, hopefully we’re putting it back on the right track again.” "Repair job" Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Odear Posted December 25, 2019 Share Posted December 25, 2019 “I just want to say a big thank you to the supporters and Chronicle readers at Christmas,” he said. “Most of the supporters – well all of them that I’ve bumped into in the street – wish me well and at this time of year I’d like to wish them well over the festive period. I wish them when, I hope they have a great Christmas and I look forward to catching up with all of them soon. “We’ve got a quite unique support and that brings expectation with it. That’s what I’m trying to achieve anyway. When you have games and moments like Saturday, it can only try to bring the supporters back. “Our supporters will always back the team. If there is a repair job to be done, hopefully we’re putting it back on the right track again.” "Repair job" I think he’s meaning the relationship between the club and supporters more than the team. He’s extremely lucky to have that job but he acknowledges that. Honestly, I hope he can keep doing well for the remainder of the season. I can think of many snake oil merchants who could have gotten the job after Rafa and had us in real trouble at this stage of the season. He was smart enough not to fuck with what worked while still trying to figure out up front. Almiron will hopefully kick on now. Hopefully Carroll can stay fit. Joelinton, well there’s a player in there, somewhere, that’s the biggest challenge in trying to find that perhaps.. and ASM, he needs to be game managed. 75 minutes is about it for him at the pace he goes. Perhaps he shouldn’t start games.. Overall Bruce gets a solid 6/10 for the season so far. Way better than anyone would have expected. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteV Posted December 25, 2019 Share Posted December 25, 2019 “I just want to say a big thank you to the supporters and Chronicle readers at Christmas,” he said. “Most of the supporters – well all of them that I’ve bumped into in the street – wish me well and at this time of year I’d like to wish them well over the festive period. I wish them when, I hope they have a great Christmas and I look forward to catching up with all of them soon. “We’ve got a quite unique support and that brings expectation with it. That’s what I’m trying to achieve anyway. When you have games and moments like Saturday, it can only try to bring the supporters back. “Our supporters will always back the team. If there is a repair job to be done, hopefully we’re putting it back on the right track again.” "Repair job" I think he’s meaning the relationship between the club and supporters more than the team. He’s extremely lucky to have that job but he acknowledges that. Honestly, I hope he can keep doing well for the remainder of the season. I can think of many snake oil merchants who could have gotten the job after Rafa and had us in real trouble at this stage of the season. He was smart enough not to fuck with what worked while still trying to figure out up front. Almiron will hopefully kick on now. Hopefully Carroll can stay fit. Joelinton, well there’s a player in there, somewhere, that’s the biggest challenge in trying to find that perhaps.. and ASM, he needs to be game managed. 75 minutes is about it for him at the pace he goes. Perhaps he shouldn’t start games.. Overall Bruce gets a solid 6/10 for the season so far. Way better than anyone would have expected. ? Pretty good assessment IMO. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest covmag Posted December 25, 2019 Share Posted December 25, 2019 “I just want to say a big thank you to the supporters and Chronicle readers at Christmas,” he said. “Most of the supporters – well all of them that I’ve bumped into in the street – wish me well and at this time of year I’d like to wish them well over the festive period. I wish them when, I hope they have a great Christmas and I look forward to catching up with all of them soon. “We’ve got a quite unique support and that brings expectation with it. That’s what I’m trying to achieve anyway. When you have games and moments like Saturday, it can only try to bring the supporters back. “Our supporters will always back the team. If there is a repair job to be done, hopefully we’re putting it back on the right track again.” "Repair job" I think he’s meaning the relationship between the club and supporters more than the team. He’s extremely lucky to have that job but he acknowledges that. Honestly, I hope he can keep doing well for the remainder of the season. I can think of many snake oil merchants who could have gotten the job after Rafa and had us in real trouble at this stage of the season. He was smart enough not to fuck with what worked while still trying to figure out up front. Almiron will hopefully kick on now. Hopefully Carroll can stay fit. Joelinton, well there’s a player in there, somewhere, that’s the biggest challenge in trying to find that perhaps.. and ASM, he needs to be game managed. 75 minutes is about it for him at the pace he goes. Perhaps he shouldn’t start games.. Overall Bruce gets a solid 6/10 for the season so far. Way better than most on here would have hoped for Good post.Tidied up the last bit of it. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gallowgate End Posted December 25, 2019 Share Posted December 25, 2019 “I just want to say a big thank you to the supporters and Chronicle readers at Christmas,” he said. “Most of the supporters – well all of them that I’ve bumped into in the street – wish me well and at this time of year I’d like to wish them well over the festive period. I wish them when, I hope they have a great Christmas and I look forward to catching up with all of them soon. “We’ve got a quite unique support and that brings expectation with it. That’s what I’m trying to achieve anyway. When you have games and moments like Saturday, it can only try to bring the supporters back. “Our supporters will always back the team. If there is a repair job to be done, hopefully we’re putting it back on the right track again.” "Repair job" Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
loki679 Posted December 25, 2019 Share Posted December 25, 2019 I wish them when I wish them when Keep chasing that dream, Chronicle writers. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
triggs Posted December 25, 2019 Share Posted December 25, 2019 I get the point but I still don't trust xG. All it does is show how good you are creatively. It takes finishing ability and keeping/blocking ability out of it. Very few players consistently outperform their xG every season Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Happinesstan Posted December 25, 2019 Share Posted December 25, 2019 This cunt deserves no praise whatsoever. If he had taken over from Carver he would have confidently changed everything and be bang on the expectations. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mattoon Posted December 25, 2019 Share Posted December 25, 2019 This cunt deserves no praise whatsoever. If he had taken over from Carver he would have confidently changed everything and be bang on the expectations. ☝? mostly this, I can't accept him, not all through his own fault but because of what we had and what we've now got, once the Rafa ripples due down in that defence he won't know where to turn and we'll be where most of us expected us to be. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andy Posted December 25, 2019 Share Posted December 25, 2019 This thread is the gift that keeps on giving, so not only are we still comparing a diamond to a cabbage, now we're comparing our form to Leicesters title winning team and suggesting that xG doesn't matter in the grand scheme of things (so long as our defenders play up front)?! Some great regens in this Christmas, loony bin had a ban lift on mobile devices? :lol: Wilfully misinterpreting what’s been said. The point about Leicester was that they are proof that you can outperform Xg over a season, see even more so Man Utd in 17/18, so it’s not necessarily ‘inevitable’ that you will tail-off because you’re currently outperforming Xg. Xg is a useful metric, but it’s far from an exact science. So the one team that basically won the league in the most miraculous of seasons ever, against all the odds prove that it’s not an exact science. There’s always a statistical anomaly in everything With Leicester there were other factors that season that were influential in their success. They won with 81 points, which wouldn't be enough now. At the time, the bigger clubs were all in a state of some transition and that opened up an opportunity. They were also remarkably free from injuries, didn't have the distraction of cup runs or European games, weren't under the same pressure as the bigger clubs, and had players in Kante and Vardy who were far better than everyone was expecting. Being underdogs, I also felt that referees were treating them with some leniency. Aye, when you put it like that it would've been pretty amazing if they didn't win the league that year really. Can't believe I didn't whack them on at 1000/1. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted December 26, 2019 Share Posted December 26, 2019 Aye, when you see a back four of Fuchs, Huth, Morgan & Simpson you automatically think the title is theirs for the taking. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
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