Relegationometer

[Stottie]

Our saving grace may be that Sunderland don't have to play us again.

You can have to deduct six points from two games to work out how well they're doing against everyone else.

[EthiGeordie]

If we dont draw against Leicester we are as good as down.

 

Sunderland will win against Southampton and Westham at home to get 36 points. That will surely mean we go down.

 

I don't understand why people keep saying this - unless you're being superstitious or lazy. It seems pretty clear that even if you lose all your games you're probably going to stay up.

 

I've been through the predictor and this simply isn't the case.  I didn't even give the lesser teams any shock results and if we don't get a point we go down with Sunderland saved.  If we get one point we stay up in a few scenarios and are down in others.  37 points pretty much guaranteed safety and 38 definitely did.  35 points though and there's definitely very few ways we stay up.  So we definitely need something and the idea we'll stay up no matter what is incorrect.  4 points from five games is all it would take most teams to overtake us on goal difference, which is more than what they're getting.

 

Where is our next point coming from?  That is the real issue here.  I wouldn't back Carver to get a point playing any of the local pub sides.

 

If the bottom three teams don't get any shock results they will go down.

[Guest Gino14]

If we dont draw against Leicester we are as good as down.

 

I don't understand why people keep saying this - unless you're being superstitious or lazy. It seems pretty clear that even if you lose all your games you're probably going to stay up.

 

I've been through the predictor and this simply isn't the case.  I didn't even give the lesser teams any shock results and if we don't get a point we go down with Sunderland saved.  If we get one point we stay up in a few scenarios and are down in others.  37 points pretty much guaranteed safety and 38 definitely did.  35 points though and there's definitely very few ways we stay up.  So we definitely need something and the idea we'll stay up no matter what is incorrect.  4 points from five games is all it would take most teams to overtake us on goal difference, which is more than what they're getting.

 

Where is our next point coming from?  That is the real issue here.  I wouldn't back Carver to get a point playing any of the local pub sides.

 

If the bottom three teams don't get any shock results they will go down.

 

Sunderland don't look quite as sackless with the new manager.  Five points from five games, essentially just above relegation form and they stay up above us on goal difference.  The rest don't even need that to get above us.  It's very touch and go when the rate is 1 point per game and every team no matter how crap is edging on that and improving the rate a lot the past ten games.  The past ten games the relegation sides are more like 1.2 points per game.

 

I don't think we'll go down, odds are well against it, but it's not a certainty we stay up by any means.

[gdm]

If we dont draw against Leicester we are as good as down.

 

I don't understand why people keep saying this - unless you're being superstitious or lazy. It seems pretty clear that even if you lose all your games you're probably going to stay up.

 

I've been through the predictor and this simply isn't the case.  I didn't even give the lesser teams any shock results and if we don't get a point we go down with Sunderland saved.  If we get one point we stay up in a few scenarios and are down in others.  37 points pretty much guaranteed safety and 38 definitely did.  35 points though and there's definitely very few ways we stay up.  So we definitely need something and the idea we'll stay up no matter what is incorrect.  4 points from five games is all it would take most teams to overtake us on goal difference, which is more than what they're getting.

 

Where is our next point coming from?  That is the real issue here.  I wouldn't back Carver to get a point playing any of the local pub sides.

 

Curious to see what results you gave to sunderland if there's no shocks and they survive.

[cubaricho]

Five points from safety.

[Guest Gino14]

If we dont draw against Leicester we are as good as down.

 

I don't understand why people keep saying this - unless you're being superstitious or lazy. It seems pretty clear that even if you lose all your games you're probably going to stay up.

 

I've been through the predictor and this simply isn't the case.  I didn't even give the lesser teams any shock results and if we don't get a point we go down with Sunderland saved.  If we get one point we stay up in a few scenarios and are down in others.  37 points pretty much guaranteed safety and 38 definitely did.  35 points though and there's definitely very few ways we stay up.  So we definitely need something and the idea we'll stay up no matter what is incorrect.  4 points from five games is all it would take most teams to overtake us on goal difference, which is more than what they're getting.

 

Where is our next point coming from?  That is the real issue here.  I wouldn't back Carver to get a point playing any of the local pub sides.

 

Curious to see what results you gave to sunderland if there's no shocks and they survive.

 

One home win against another rubbish side and a couple of draws.  That's the permutation where they survive over us, but look at their fixtures and it's more than possible.  It's not probable, which is why we'll probably survive.  It's just no certainty.

[Dokko]

Found a quick predictor on a Grimsby forum, the results are:

 

 

Team         P.    GD Pts

Chelsea 38 39 88

Arsenal 38 31 82

Man City 38 34 77

Man Utd 38 25 74

Liverpool 38 11 67

Tottenham 38 6 64

Soton 38 21 62

Swansea 38 -3 52

Stoke 38 -3 51

Everton 38 1 50

West Ham 38 0 49

Palace 38 -5 43

Leicester 38 -16 39

Aston Villa 38 -22 39

West Brom 38 -14 38

Newcastle 38 -21 37

Hull.  38 -14 35

Mackems.  38 -23 34

QPR         38 -21 30

Burnley 38 -26 27

 

[Dan Gleebals]

I reckon

 

Villa 39

Leicester 38

Newcastle 37 (at a push) - would still stay up by one point.

Mackems 35

Hull 34

 

QPR and Burnley already gone IMO.

[Guest ElCid]

I reckon

 

Villa 39

Leicester 38

Newcastle 37 (at a push) - would still stay up by one point.

Mackems 35

Hull 34

 

QPR and Burnley already gone IMO.

 

for the mackems to get 5 points really need to do it in their next three games - possible yes - likely not a chance. Can't see them getting anything at Everton with their current form and their only chance is to get to wins from their home games which on the basis of their home form for this season is unlikely. I think they will get 3 - 4 points at most and if they do get 4 will go down on goal difference. They won't repeat the unreal situation of last year as I don't think that will ever happen again.

[NUFC_Chris]

Hoping Cisse, Sissoko, De Jong, Aarons and Dummett coming back will be enough to get us the one win we need.

[BlueStar]

My only worry is that a few teams in the shit string a couple of results together and get a bit of belief, see a glimmer of hope, which can give you a huge boost if you previously thought you were dead and buried.  Especially when you're playing teams who have absolutely fuck all to play for.  You know, like, uh, Swansea.

[TRon]

If we dont draw against Leicester we are as good as down.

 

I don't understand why people keep saying this - unless you're being superstitious or lazy. It seems pretty clear that even if you lose all your games you're probably going to stay up.

 

I've been through the predictor and this simply isn't the case.  I didn't even give the lesser teams any shock results and if we don't get a point we go down with Sunderland saved.  If we get one point we stay up in a few scenarios and are down in others.  37 points pretty much guaranteed safety and 38 definitely did.  35 points though and there's definitely very few ways we stay up.  So we definitely need something and the idea we'll stay up no matter what is incorrect.  4 points from five games is all it would take most teams to overtake us on goal difference, which is more than what they're getting.

 

Where is our next point coming from?  That is the real issue here.  I wouldn't back Carver to get a point playing any of the local pub sides.

 

If the bottom three teams don't get any shock results they will go down.

 

Sunderland might get a shock result, teams tend to have nothing to play for by the end of the season. It happens every season.

[Guest ElCid]

If we dont draw against Leicester we are as good as down.

 

I don't understand why people keep saying this - unless you're being superstitious or lazy. It seems pretty clear that even if you lose all your games you're probably going to stay up.

 

I've been through the predictor and this simply isn't the case.  I didn't even give the lesser teams any shock results and if we don't get a point we go down with Sunderland saved.  If we get one point we stay up in a few scenarios and are down in others.  37 points pretty much guaranteed safety and 38 definitely did.  35 points though and there's definitely very few ways we stay up.  So we definitely need something and the idea we'll stay up no matter what is incorrect.  4 points from five games is all it would take most teams to overtake us on goal difference, which is more than what they're getting.

 

Where is our next point coming from?  That is the real issue here.  I wouldn't back Carver to get a point playing any of the local pub sides.

 

If the bottom three teams don't get any shock results they will go down.

 

Sunderland might get a shock result, teams tend to have nothing to play for by the end of the season. It happens every season.

 

Southampton are still going for Europa, Leicester to stay up, Arsenal I would think for the automatic Champions League qualification, Everton are bang in form and have an expecting home crowd and Chelsea will want to put on a show for winning the league - just can't see it to be honest and in my opinion these fuckers are going down.

[leffe186]

 

Sunderland might get a shock result, teams tend to have nothing to play for by the end of the season. It happens every season.

 

Yeah I know, I was just responding to the guy who thought you'd go down even if there were no shock results.

[loki679]

I reckon

 

Villa 39

Leicester 38

Newcastle 37 (at a push) - would still stay up by one point.

Mackems 35

Hull 34

 

QPR and Burnley already gone IMO.

 

[Guest chopey]

I still can't work out if relagation is a good thing or not .

[Guest]

I reckon

 

Villa 39

Leicester 38

Newcastle 37 (at a push) - would still stay up by one point.

Mackems 35

Hull 34

 

QPR and Burnley already gone IMO.

 

 

Think he means even if we don't get the 2 points, we still stay up by a point by his reckoning.

[gdm]

I still can't work out if relagation is a good thing or not .

 

I don't see any reason why it would. Ashley is still highly unlikely to sell and even if he wants to it will be far more difficult to sell in the championship.

[Stifler]

I still can't work out if relagation is a good thing or not .

 

I don't see any reason why it would. Ashley is still highly unlikely to sell and even if he wants to it will be far more difficult to sell in the championship.

This. No one will buy us for the high price Ashley wants whilst in the Championship. It's only us who hurts in the long run.

[Guest]

Of the 4 points Hull need to match us, tonight is probably their most likely chance of their 4 'hard' games of getting anything. If they lose tonight I think we're as good as safe tbh.

[Ikon]

Who do they play?

[Twinport53]

Liverpool at 19.45.

[Ikon]

Cheers!

[geordiedean]

Of the 4 points Hull need to match us, tonight is probably their most likely chance of their 4 'hard' games of getting anything. If they lose tonight I think we're as good as safe tbh.

 

If they win tonight though the mackems are as good as gone

 

We need the WBA game to be our saviour

 

Here's an omen for you...

 

When we went down in 08/09 on the last day of the season

Hull played Man United and lost

SUNDERLAND played Chelsea and lost

We played Villa and we all know what happened

 

This season

Hull play Man United

SUNDERLAND play Chelsea

We play a team in claret and blue

[gdm]

Well that's settled it