Karjala Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 Cant see us getting any more than 2pts in our next 6 games, at which point we will be looking good for the drop. I would say Cardiff and the mackems are the best chance of points in those 6, as I fear we wont get anything from Liverpool, Man C, Chelsea and Spuds. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest bimpy474 Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 Cant see us getting any more than 2pts in our next 6 games, at which point we will be looking good for the drop. I would say Cardiff and the mackems are the best chance of points in those 6, as I fear we wont get anything from Liverpool, Man C, Chelsea and Spuds. Not sure you get points for beating Man City in the League Cup like. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Teasy Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 Around 3 I think. Around 8 I know. 80% likely to go down? Aye.. only 56.9% disagree That's your justification? A internet poll where most people probably don't even equate the numbers to real odds/chance. Are you really being serious or am I being wooshed? Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
AyeDubbleYoo Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 Around 3 I think. Around 8 I know. 80% likely to go down? Aye.. only 56.9% disagree That's your justification? A internet poll where most people probably don't even equate the numbers to real odds/chance. Are you really being serious or am I being wooshed? Tip - don't spend too long trying to figure out the responses to this poll. Sorry I mentioned it really, I know by now. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mick Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 Not sure you get points for beating Man City in the League Cup like. I'm not sure Pardew believes you get points for beating them in the league, at least that would explain why we don't bother trying. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
afar Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 I was at an 8 when right after we played Man Shitty. Looking back that's a bit pessimistic. In all honesty I don't think we are one of the 3 worst teams in the division, Fulham and Villa have shown me how bad others are. Having said that, looking at the fixture list, we could easily go until Nov 23rd now until we next get a win, especially if the mackems get that new manager thing going again, like they did last time we played them. If that happens we'll be in a huge hole to dig ourselves out of. At a 5 right now, but worried more the longer the team is manged by this guy. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
AyeDubbleYoo Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 I was at an 8 when right after we played Man Shitty. Looking back that's a bit pessimistic. It might have been, aye. 80% chance of relegation after the first game! Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ronaldo Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 I was at an 8 when right after we played Man Shitty. Looking back that's a bit pessimistic. It might have been, aye. 80% chance of relegation after the first game! Not having added to a squad that finished 16th while everyone else invested might have had something to do with his prediction, like. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
loki679 Posted October 4, 2013 Share Posted October 4, 2013 We actually had more points after our first 6 games last season. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Teasy Posted October 4, 2013 Share Posted October 4, 2013 We actually had more points after our first 6 games last season. Sounds scary until you realise there's never been much of a correlation between the number of points we have after 6 games and where we finish in the league: 95/96 - 15 points - 2nd 96/97 - 12 points - 2nd 97/98 - 12 points - 13th 98/99 - 8 points - 13th 99/00 - 1 point - 11th 00/01 - 10 points - 11th 01/02 - 11 points - 4th 02/03 - 7 points - 3rd 03/04 - 3 points - 5th 04/05 - 8 points - 14th 05/06 - 5 points - 7th 06/07 - 7 points - 13th 07/08 - 11 points - 12th 08/09 - 4 points - 18th 10/11 - 7 points - 12th 11/12 - 12 points - 5th 12/13 - 9 points - 16th Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
AyeDubbleYoo Posted October 4, 2013 Share Posted October 4, 2013 Depends on the fixtures as well I suppose. Not that a defeat to Hull helps with that. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Teasy Posted October 4, 2013 Share Posted October 4, 2013 Of course, that's one of the reasons why there's little correlation. Six games is simply too small a sample for comparison. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
thomas Posted October 4, 2013 Share Posted October 4, 2013 Of course, that's one of the reasons why there's little correlation. Six games is simply too small a sample for comparison. It's barely too small. around 8 interesting things become more clear. I did something regarding "# of games in vs. certainty to finish a certain position" a while back, should maybe update it or expand it, but I don't think much has changed since 2010. http://www.newcastle-online.org/nufcforum/index.php/topic,72421.msg2602445.html Top 3 is determined fairly early - once you're in it after ~ 8 games, you almost unerringly do not finish outside of it. 4th-6th you need half a season before being able to say with a degree of certainty. If you're bottom after 9 games you're almost certain to go down. Determining the rest of the bottom 6 takes about half a season. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Teasy Posted October 4, 2013 Share Posted October 4, 2013 Nice thread, though I'm talking purely about comparing one season to another based on one teams points and saying "we had more points after six games that season so we'll finish lower this season". That doesn't work because 6 games is too small a sample to tell you that. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mick Posted October 4, 2013 Share Posted October 4, 2013 We actually had more points after our first 6 games last season. Sounds scary until you realise there's never been much of a correlation between the number of points we have after 6 games and where we finish in the league: 95/96 - 15 points - 2nd 96/97 - 12 points - 2nd 97/98 - 12 points - 13th 98/99 - 8 points - 13th 99/00 - 1 point - 11th - Change of manager 00/01 - 10 points - 11th 01/02 - 11 points - 4th 02/03 - 7 points - 3rd - Sir Bobby 03/04 - 3 points - 5th - Sir Bobby 04/05 - 8 points - 14th 05/06 - 5 points - 7th - Change of manager 06/07 - 7 points - 13th 07/08 - 11 points - 12th 08/09 - 4 points - 18th - Relegated 10/11 - 7 points - 12th - Change of manager 11/12 - 12 points - 5th 12/13 - 9 points - 16th Am I right in thinking that your point is that when we have so few points at this stage we either need to change a manager, have Sir Bobby or get relegated? Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beren Posted October 4, 2013 Share Posted October 4, 2013 Is the issue not that we have so few points given the quality of opposition we've played? It's quite funny to hear Pardew talking about "judge us after 10 games". At the end of the 10 games, I bet he'll wish he'd been judged now instead because our goal difference will be negative double digits, our win % will be lower and the loss % will be higher! Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mick Posted October 4, 2013 Share Posted October 4, 2013 Is the issue not that we have so few points given the quality of opposition we've played? It's quite funny to hear Pardew talking about "judge us after 10 games". At the end of the 10 games, I bet he'll wish he'd been judged now instead because our goal difference will be negative double digits, our win % will be lower and the loss % will be higher! I think we all know the "judge us after 10 games" will be forgotten about, if he's still here. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
cp40 Posted October 4, 2013 Share Posted October 4, 2013 The issue for me is Ashley waiting for Pardew to Quit to appont JFK., Pardew waiting for the sack. The players know it and nobody is giving a shit, it will change or end in RELEGATION. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
r0cafella Posted October 4, 2013 Share Posted October 4, 2013 Is the issue not that we have so few points given the quality of opposition we've played? It's quite funny to hear Pardew talking about "judge us after 10 games". At the end of the 10 games, I bet he'll wish he'd been judged now instead because our goal difference will be negative double digits, our win % will be lower and the loss % will be higher! I think we all know the "judge us after 10 games" will be forgotten about, if he's still here. Exactly just like how he spouted it last year. We'll be judging this man until the end of time. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Teasy Posted October 4, 2013 Share Posted October 4, 2013 We actually had more points after our first 6 games last season. Sounds scary until you realise there's never been much of a correlation between the number of points we have after 6 games and where we finish in the league: 95/96 - 15 points - 2nd 96/97 - 12 points - 2nd 97/98 - 12 points - 13th 98/99 - 8 points - 13th 99/00 - 1 point - 11th - Change of manager 00/01 - 10 points - 11th 01/02 - 11 points - 4th 02/03 - 7 points - 3rd - Sir Bobby 03/04 - 3 points - 5th - Sir Bobby 04/05 - 8 points - 14th 05/06 - 5 points - 7th - Change of manager 06/07 - 7 points - 13th 07/08 - 11 points - 12th 08/09 - 4 points - 18th - Relegated 10/11 - 7 points - 12th - Change of manager 11/12 - 12 points - 5th 12/13 - 9 points - 16th Am I right in thinking that your point is that when we have so few points at this stage we either need to change a manager, have Sir Bobby or get relegated? You arent no, as I didnt say other seasons where we've had 7 or less points after 6 games were indicitive of this season. In fact quite the opposite, I said none of them were. Because 6 games is too small a sample for that kind of comparison. Like most people I think we're going to have a bad season if things dont change (most notably the manager). But thats based on much more than our current points total vs other seasons after the same number of games. I mean we could have 10 points now and that wouldnt convince me we're going to have a good season. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrmojorisin75 Posted October 5, 2013 Share Posted October 5, 2013 Like most people I think we're going to have a bad season if things dont change (most notably the manager). But thats based on much more than our current points total vs other seasons after the same number of games. I mean we could have 10 points now and that wouldnt convince me we're going to have a good season. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
loki679 Posted October 5, 2013 Share Posted October 5, 2013 I agree, 6 games is too small a sample to make a meaningful comparison. Just gives me an uneasy feeling when I look at the quality of the opposition we've faced, I would expect a better return than what we have. I don't think we'll go down, i'm about a 2 on the relegationometer but the signs are pointing to another shit season of nothing. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
cp40 Posted October 6, 2013 Share Posted October 6, 2013 4ish Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted October 6, 2013 Share Posted October 6, 2013 Still 2. Crystal Palace, Sunderland & Cardiff for starters won't finish within 5 points of us imo. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mick Posted October 6, 2013 Share Posted October 6, 2013 Still 2. Crystal Palace, Sunderland & Cardiff for starters won't finish within 5 points of us imo. I think you're right, the 3 relegation places look as if they're taken already. Norwich, Stoke and Fulham are more likely than we are to scrape around at the bottom. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
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