Relegationometer

[Dave]

Voted 4 originally for this season, and see no reason to change that so far. We've been better than I thought, if anything. We're capable of winning matches against the ~15 average/shite teams in the league, home or away. That's not usually the sign of a club that's particularly likely to go down.

[HaydnNUFC]

We won't go on a horrendous run to drag us down the league, our manager is too good to let that happen. He's never lost more than 2 games in succession in the PL iirc.

[bowlingcrofty]

While Rafa is in charge, we’re not going down (unless we’re docked points...).

 

If he went, however...

[Ketsbaia]

We look good but it's so tight below us that we're pretty close to 17th

[Optimistic Nut]

While Rafa is in charge, we’re not going down (unless we’re docked points...).

 

If he went, however...

 

Was just thinking the other day, this season under Rafa is how I reckon the 08/09 season under Keegan would have panned out had he stayed. Obviously we'd have got the results in a different way, but I think he'd have got that group performing like he showed end of the previous season and first two games of the relegation season.

[xLiaaamx]

While Rafa is in charge, we’re not going down (unless we’re docked points...).

 

If he went, however...

 

Was just thinking the other day, this season under Rafa is how I reckon the 08/09 season under Keegan would have panned out had he stayed. Obviously we'd have got the results in a different way, but I think he'd have got that group performing like he showed end of the previous season and first two games of the relegation season.

 

That team shouldn't have gone down. The league was weak back then, our players just couldn't be bothered.

[afar]

I know everyone likes to paint me as the negative nancy around here but the only way I can see us going down is if Rafa leaves.  The division hasn't really settled down yet, however I expect us to be around where we are right now, it's a fair reflection on our start.

[Benwell Lad]

Tbh, there are no really out and out poor teams in the league this season so far. Even Palace, despite their results don't play really poor football and have good players.

 

 

No, there's no Sunderland to write off this season so it's 3 places to worry about in what looks like a very competitive lower half of the league. If Palace really are the worst team in the league then it's a pretty strong league.

[Optimistic Nut]

I'd be surprised if Huddersfield and Brighton aren't in the bottom 4-5 before long. Still think both will go down.

[STM]

We are just as likely to be pushing the top six as we are to be dropping into a relegation battle.

 

I think we will continue along at a steady pace and that's fine by me. Our ability to bounce back after a defeat is key and one of Rafa's best assets IMO. He keeps the players calm and focused regardless of the result.

 

Really enjoying this season.

[Optimistic Nut]

Think a win on Saturday is important like. We don't want to go to no wins in 4 going into an awkward away match at Burnley and back in the bottom half.

[Figures 1-0 Football]

Would have been surprised at the start of the season if we were anywhere near the relegation zone all season and I’ve seen nothing to change that.

 

We are amongst the 2/3 of the league with an average team, but we’ve got the best manager of the lot.

[Altamullan]

Reckon we'll get 5-7 points next four games. Up to 11 in the next six, then a tricky run in December.

[Figures 1-0 Football]

Just had a look and we’re 14/1 for relegation.

 

Weren’t we odds on at the start of the season? Goes to show what a decent start we’ve made.

[HaydnNUFC]

Just had a look and we’re 14/1 for relegation.

 

Weren’t we odds on at the start of the season? Goes to show what a decent start we’ve made.

Sky have put out an article looking at teams that could potentially upset the top 6. We're in there. Can't seeing it happening myself, but after the analysis on MotD 2 we're finally getting recognised for, well, being quite good.

[AyeDubbleYoo]

It’s longer than 14/1 IMO, maybe somewhere around 25.

[54]

14 points after 9 games, 6th in the league, only lost once in 7 games, defensively secure, players actually playing for the badge and Rafa. I think we're going to be alright.

[U2]

EUROPEOMETER

[Greg]

Poll reset.

[U2]

Why limit ourselves to the Europa League?

[Altamullan]

Did this re relative difficulty thing for the season. Surprisingly, we're on track.

Thought I would 'classify' and colour code our fixtures according to finishing position last year of opposition  treating the top seven (15 point gap between Everton 7th and Southampton 8th) as RED (least likely to beat), next six as AMBER, and remaining four, plus promoted sides as GREEN. To make this pseudo-scientific cluster-f*** even more elaborate, opposition moves up or down a category depending if home or away if we are playing a RED team at SJP it becomes an AMBER fixture; and a GREEN team away becomes an AMBER fixture (I know this ignores our relatively better away form, last year).

 

Point is (other than I am bored and NUFC obsessed...) this should give, based on last year's form/squads, a sense of the relative difficulty of different periods of the season. So:

August:

Spurs H PRED 1 Lost ACT 0

Huddersfield A PRED 2 Lost ACT 0

West Ham H PRED 5 Won ACT 3

September:

Swansea A PRED 6 Won ACT 6

Stoke H PRED 9 Won ACT 9

Brighton A PRED 10  Lost ACT 9

Liverpool H PRED 11 Drew ACT 10

October:

Southampton A PRED 11 Drew ACT 11

Palace H  PRED 14 Won ACT 14

Burnley A PRED 15 Lost ACT 14

November:

Bournemouth H PRED 18 Lost ACT 14

Man Utd A PRED 18

Watford H PRED 21

WBA A PRED 22

December:

Chelsea A PRED 22

Leicester H PRED 25

Everton H PRED 26

Arsenal A PRED 26

West Ham A PRED 26

Man City H PRED 27

Brighton H PRED 30

January:

Stoke A PRED 30

Swansea H PRED 33

Man City A PRED 33

Burnley H PRED 36

February:

Palace A PRED 37

Man Utd H PRED 38

Bournemouth A PRED 39

March:

Liverpool A PRED 39

Southampton H PRED 42

Spurs A PRED 42

Huddersfield H PRED 45

April:

Leicester A PRED 45

Arsenal H PRED 46

Everton A PRED 46

WBA H PRED 49

May:

Watford A PRED 50

Chelsea H PRED 51

[STM]

We have Burnley, Bournemouth, Watford and WBA in our next 5 games. Points all over the shop there. Man Utd are the other side and you wouldn't put it past Mourinho and Benitez playing a stalemate.

[Dave]

 

[Dokko]

We have Burnley, Bournemouth, Watford and WBA in our next 5 games. Points all over the shop there. Man Utd are the other side and you wouldn't put it past Mourinho and Benitez playing a stalemate.

 

2 more wins and we're halfway there for what we need this season.

[Ketsbaia]

Was a bit nervy at 0-0, with Brighton, Huddersfield and Bournemouth all getting wins - the sides we're expecting to join Palace by May. But that winner was huge going into more winnable games. Think it'll be a safe mid-table.