Relegationometer

[HaydnNUFC]

We tend to get our best results there when we have a s*** team from memory.

 

1-1 when Andersson scored there in '98, two draws in our relegation seasons (albeit one under Keegan before it all blew up), a draw and a win under Pardew, 0-0 there under Sir Bobby in a season where we only won 2 away all season finishing 5th...

0-0 under McClaren as well.

 

My bad.

[Optimistic Nut]

Other than Burnley, it's a bit shit how far the top 6 are ahead of the pack already.

[Altamullan]

The predicted total points looks like being just enough; if we stay behind the predictions, by the same margin (achieve 74%), then we’re looking at a 38 point haul, rather than 51 points.  (6 March, update).

Did this re relative difficulty thing for the season. Surprisingly, we're on track.

Thought I would 'classify' and colour code our fixtures according to finishing position last year of opposition  treating the top seven (15 point gap between Everton 7th and Southampton 8th) as RED (least likely to beat), next six as AMBER, and remaining four, plus promoted sides as GREEN. To make this pseudo-scientific cluster-f*** even more elaborate, opposition moves up or down a category depending if home or away if we are playing a RED team at SJP it becomes an AMBER fixture; and a GREEN team away becomes an AMBER fixture (I know this ignores our relatively better away form, last year).

 

Point is (other than I am bored and NUFC obsessed...) this should give, based on last year's form/squads, a sense of the relative difficulty of different periods of the season. So:

August:

Spurs H PRED 1 Lost ACT 0

Huddersfield A PRED 2 Lost ACT 0

West Ham H PRED 5 Won ACT 3

September:

Swansea A PRED 6 Won ACT 6

Stoke H PRED 9 Won ACT 9

Brighton A PRED 10  Lost ACT 9

Liverpool H PRED 11 Drew ACT 10

October:

Southampton A PRED 11 Drew ACT 11

Palace H  PRED 14 Won ACT 14

Burnley A PRED 15 Lost ACT 14

November:

Bournemouth H PRED 18 Lost ACT 14

Man Utd A PRED 18 Lost ACT 14 

Watford H PRED 21 Lost ACT 14

WBA A PRED 22 Drew ACT 15 

December:

Chelsea A PRED 22 Lost ACT 15

Leicester H PRED 25 Lost ACT 15

Everton H PRED 26 Lost ACT 15

Arsenal A PRED 26 Lost ACT 15

West Ham A PRED 26 Won ACT 18

Man City H PRED 27 Lost ACT 18

Brighton H  PRED 30 Drew ACT 19

January:

Stoke A PRED 30 Won ACT 22

Swansea H PRED 33 Drew ACT 23

Man City A PRED 33 Lost ACT 23

Burnley H PRED 36 Drew ACT 24

February:

Palace A PRED 37 Drew ACT 25

Man Utd H PRED 38 Won ACT 28

Bournemouth A PRED 39 Drew ACT 29

March:

Liverpool A PRED 39 Lost ACT 29

Southampton H PRED 42

Spurs A PRED 42

Huddersfield H PRED 45

April:

Leicester A PRED 45

Arsenal H PRED 46

Everton A PRED 46

WBA H PRED 49

May:

Watford A PRED 50

Chelsea H PRED 51

[Dave]

I know it's no consolation after a terrible result today but Southampton fans will currently be thinking 'we can't be losing at home to Burnley', Swansea fans will be thinking 'we can't lose at home to Brighton' and West Brom fans probably aren't too impressed by losing at Huddersfield.

 

Outside the traditional top six, everyone is average to rubbish.

[mrmojorisin75]

I know it's no consolation after a terrible result today but Southampton fans will currently be thinking 'we can't be losing at home to Burnley', Swansea fans will be thinking 'we can't lose at home to Brighton' and West Brom fans probably aren't too impressed by losing at Huddersfield.

 

Outside the traditional top six, everyone is average to rubbish.

Funny you refer to today as a terrible result

[Dave]

?

[TRon]

We have the sort of team that could easily pick up a win against a much better side, and just as easily lose to the poorer ones, our results so far pretty much bear that out. We are well organised so we'll always have a chance, but because we struggle for goals, the opposition will also have a chance.

[Ketsbaia]

Swansea's result does put them in the shitter, mind. And if West Ham go with Moyes.....

[Wallsendmag]

Opposition teams know that they just need to score once against us to have an excellent chance of winning the game which puts us in trouble. That's four 1-0 defeats in 11 games and 5 games where we haven't scored. Investment in attacking players is imperative in January to make sure we don't get sucked into a relegation battle. If we do sign those players we'll be comfortable  in mid table.

[mrmojorisin75]

?

I just don't think it is/was. Disappointing maybe but certainly not terrible. We're still ultimately the promoted team with a terrible squad, we've no right to expect to beat the likes of Bournemouth playing £20m CB's.

[Guest neesy111]

It'll go down to the last 3-4 games, our squad is pretty crap.

[Figures 1-0 Football]

On this day 2 years ago, we had 7 points from 11 games in the PL - having only won one game.

 

Incredible the difference with Rafa.

 

Reassuringly, having flicked through the table at this stage over the past 5 or so years, 2 of the teams in the bottom 3 usually end up getting relegated. That’d just free up one other space and there are plenty of teams that are more likely to go down than us.

 

Also means that one of (or both of) Palace and West Ham could/should drop

 

#sundayboredom

[Superior Acuña]

I'm not too worried about relegation. We'll either be somewhere in that big pack of midtable shite, but we might be able to push on to be one of the better of that. I don't consider lower to be a failure but along with Watford/Southampton/Leicester/Burnley we should be aiming for that 7/8th spot.

[ExiledGeordie]

 

If we can bring in a couple of attacking players (striker, creative no 10) it'll give us more options and I think we'll be fine and finish between 8th and 12th.

 

A takeover would obviously change everything.

[Altamullan]

?

I just don't think it is/was. Disappointing maybe but certainly not terrible. We're still ultimately the promoted team with a terrible squad, we've no right to expect to beat the likes of Bournemouth playing £20m CB's.

These are the kinds of games which will define our season. Given Bournemouth’s form, and seeming lack of quality, if we have aspirations to finish in the top ten then it is a terrible result. If safety is our highest ambition, then yeah disappointing seems a more appropriate adjective. I want top ten and despite our own absence of quality I think Rafa will be striving for that, also.

[Optimistic Nut]

11th looks good on paper but if you ignore the fact we've played 11, listed all 19 clubs with home & away next to them, and put down where we'd get 11 wins and 7 draws to finish on 40 points, a fair few more would have come from the games we've lost.

[mrmojorisin75]

?

I just don't think it is/was. Disappointing maybe but certainly not terrible. We're still ultimately the promoted team with a terrible squad, we've no right to expect to beat the likes of Bournemouth playing £20m CB's.

These are the kinds of games which will define our season. Given Bournemouth’s form, and seeming lack of quality, if we have aspirations to finish in the top ten then it is a terrible result. If safety is our highest ambition, then yeah disappointing seems a more appropriate adjective. I want top ten and despite our own absence of quality I think Rafa will be striving for that, also.

For their seeming lack of quality if we had their two strikers we'd have pissed that game imo.

[Benwell Lad]

Relegation is a possibility and a relegation struggle quite likely. Four unnecessary defeats already against teams who we were no worse than only leads to one thing.

Sadly it will impact on the possibility of a takeover if Premiership survival is not guaranteed.

[mrmojorisin75]

Relegation is a possibility and a relegation struggle quite likely. Four unnecessary defeats already against teams who we were no worse than only leads to one thing.

Sadly it will impact on the possibility of a takeover if Premiership survival is not guaranteed.

We're mid table after 11 games man, couple of disappointing results b2b aye but Rafa generally doesn't do losing streaks so I'd expect us to be where we need to be again soon.

 

If he can't stop the rot and we go into a Pardew tailspin it'll be time to worry aye, but I'm not expecting that personally.

 

Don't quite get the 'should beat Bournemouth' type stuff, football would be a very simple game if everything always went as far as expected.

 

Said in the match thread the other day, Rafa plays the margins, we've just come out on the wrong side a couple of times.

[STM]

There are quite a few stats in our favour (if you like stats), in terms of goals conceded and time spent losing a game. I think we are in the top 3 or 4 in both regards. I can't imagine many sides with such organisation getting relegated.

 

Rafa has us competing in every game. Most games swing by a 1 goal margin, for us. Which means there is always a good chance of us picking up points.

 

If we can just find something in attack, with the limited quality we have available, we should be fairly comfortable. With Rafa's defence, we should avoid the worst of it.

[mrmojorisin75]

There are quite a few stats in our favour (if you like stats), in terms of goals conceded and time spent losing a game. I think we are in the top 3 or 4 in both regards. I can't imagine many sides with such organisation getting relegated.

 

Rafa has us competing in every game. Most games swing by a 1 goal margin, for us. Which means there is always a good chance of us picking up points.

 

If we can just find something in attack, with the limited quality we have available, we should be fairly comfortable. With Rafa's defence, we should avoid the worst of it.

 

Fully expect us to have 20 points or more by the halfway stage and then get replacements in in January whether from the takeover or selling Mitro or something.

[Ketsbaia]

Amongst the nasty fixtures coming up, there's 2 winnable double headers. Watford & West Brom, then Leicester & Everton. Think we need a win from both to keep our heads above water going into January.

 

If we don't get that, I'll be worried.

[Guest Howaythetoon]

I think its not impossible that we could get sucked into a relegation battle, but I am certain we wont go down and that's mainly because of Rafa, he's the difference between going down and staying up. If we can maintain a mid-table place towards January, even if we don't get taken over, a striker that can score goals and creative midfielder will see us alright.

[Shearergol]

Rafa doesn't go on losing streaks, so I'm sure we'll pick up a couple of wins soon enough.

 

I get the feeling Gayle (as much as I don't rate him) might start to get some fitness and confidence back soon too.

[Guest Howaythetoon]

Rafa doesn't go on losing streaks, so I'm sure we'll pick up a couple of wins soon enough.

 

I get the feeling Gayle (as much as I don't rate him) might start to get some fitness and confidence back soon too.

 

Last season that brilliant ball to him from Shelvey and he would have controlled it and finished it.