Sven Botman: targeting January return (Howe)

[TRon]

45 minutes ago, Milanista said:

Greetings, I'm a Milan fan who has been browsing your forum and thought I would offer some thoughts about Milan, Botman, and the finances involved. I've always had a soft spot for Newcastle, particularly in the late 90's and early 2000's, always liked Shearer (obviously), Solano, Lualua, Gary Speed (rest in peace), and I always liked Robert when I watched him play--and True Geordie seems like a nice guy. I'm sure, like any fan base, I may have talked about players/personalities that aren't remembered as fondly as you all, but, the point is: I come in peace.

 

I made the account because there was a lot of discussion over how good Milan is. Yes, we've had tremendous upheaval from 2012-2019, but I wanted to actually respond to @Hanshithispantz and his points, in particular. He talked about us finishing "dead last" in our CL group or that we are "nowhere near winning the Champions League outside of a freak year" or talking about our finances. He (and others) did so with an authority and inaccuracy that annoyed me, so I figured I'd offer some fun facts about Milan and Serie A, so you can have a more nuanced view of Milan, as a club, and also why Botman (and other young stars) are so interested in this "reboot" of Milan.

 

The reason we finished last in our group was a combination of (crippling, half-the-squad level) injuries, shocking ref decisions (the refs were suspended after our game by UEFA), and inexperience. Mostly the first two. We should have finished second in our group, easily, in fact, the penalty that was awarded against us with Atletico (which was widely condemned) if it had just been VAR reviewed properly (and not awarded) all other things staying the same, we would have finished second. Our injury crisis meant that in many of our games we were playing with youth players and third choice players, or others in completely alien positions, like a 5th choice CM as our LW or our 3rd choice RB as a LB.

 

We had an injury crisis and refs had some shocking decisions against us in the league. Otherwise, we would have won the league, with ease. We still won it. We have the best LB in the world in Theo Hernandez (top 3, at least), one of the best keepers in the world, a great English CB (no idea why Southgate doesn't play him) in Tomori, and other incredible talents (like Rafa Leao, Sandro Tonali, Kalulu, and many others). They are renewing with us and have turned down City, PSG, Real, etc because Maldini sells players onto rebuilding Milan into what it once was, and he has done this with young players. Two years ago we were the youngest team in any of the top 5 leagues, while this year, we were the youngest team in the CL from the top 5 leagues, even with Ibrahimovic and Giroud being factored in.

 

In short: this team is young, hungry, and very motivated/united. In Italy, young players are not relied upon as much, with the typical thinking they cannot be relied upon. Milan under Maldini and Pioli (our manager) has went against that, making players buy-in, play them, stand by them when they have a bad season (or two), and they have grown, especially with Ibrahimovic's (and Kjaer's) leadership augmenting Maldini and Pioli. Opposing Serie A fans and pundits have tried to excuse themselves from missing out on this team's growth (which was obvious [we were 2nd last year]) by pretending this is some sort of "miracle." It isn't. This team has been built deliberately, and its growth is rapid.

 

Milan's goal is to win the CL. People did not think this team would ever challenge for the domestic title, and while they (management, players, etc) do not speak openly about wanting to win the CL, it is the obvious goal of the club, for the growth strategy of the new owners, and of Maldini, who went to 8 CL finals during his career. The CL is Milan's identity (we're annoying, kinda like Liverpool fans about it) and the key to its marketing future. So acting like Milan is similar to Juventus, Inter, or others, it just isn't true. Milan cares much more about the European stage than for domestic titles. Milan's next goal is to win the CL. People laughed at us wanting to win the league, and it seems clear that the CL is this team's next goal. Thus, acting like Botman (should he join Milan) is going to Germany to play for 2nd (max) in a good, big, but non-Bayern team, is missing the point. Dismiss Milan at your peril.

 

This is where the financial elements come in. Milan do not own their own stadium (we rent San Siro with Inter from the government, which seriously hampers both of our revenue). A joint new stadium has given way to Milan building a stadium on its own, which should be starting soon--Italian governmental red tape has met American ruthlessness pitting different municipalities in the Milan area against each other--and this stadium will turbo charge Milan's already insane growth. Milan has been bought, where 70% has been valued between 1.2 and 1.8 billion Euros, without a stadium, that's quite a lot. The new ownership is led by a man (Cardinale) who is an expert in the world of sports, where he used to lead Goldman Sachs's department, where he led the Yankees and Cowboys media and stadium projects, leading them to make billions.

 

To make a long story short: with Milan he has a sleeping giant that has been mismanaged for over a decade by previous owners. Our current owners and executives described what they inherited as "stone age." They have quickly modernized, and still have room to grow. Milan has seen triple-and-double digit growth in various marketing metrics, revenue, and brand recognition per year. Milan is, well, a huge club with a lot of room to grow because previous owners were... stupid and inept. The financial power of Milan has yet to be realized, and it will be in between 3-5 years that you will see a Milan with the sort of financial weight to rival EPL sides, including your beloved (and lovable) Newcastle, even with your owners.

 

Whether the EPL is the strongest league in the world or not, I think you guys overrate your league a little bit; yes, I think it is the strongest league right now, but not by some huge margin. Yes, Serie A is at its weakest point in decades, but Milan's growth has taken the league by surprise and its play-style is brash, fast, and on the cutting edge with its use of data and analytics. I think EPL fans tend to overstate the pull of the EPL, because Serie A is not Ligue 1. Serie A is on the rise and its American owners (who own 8-10 clubs already) are pushing that growth, as Italy has allowed its infrastructure to decay, while still producing superb tactics, players, and managers--the point is: you can make a lot of money by doing the most basic fixes.

 

Now, as far as transfer business goes: Milan under Maldini do not overpay. They don't get into auctions. They offer a price, and then they walk away if the other club doesn't agree once they hit a certain number. This frustrates many fans of Milan, but it suits me just fine. Botman will not be the source of an auction between Milan and Newcastle, or anyone else. Milan will simply move on to their next target, and Bremer (among others) are quite tempting. To answer @GeordieDazzler's question about our current CB partnership: Milan actually has a very strong CB pairing, that might make the urgency to sign Botman lower, as Kalulu, who had never played a professional match before joining us, was the revelation of this season after Kjaer (Danish NT captain) was injured (ACL) and was crucial in our defense, and our captain (Romagnoli) is leaving. Do we need a CB? Yes. But do we need a Botman level player? I'm not so sure we need him, in particular, but we do need a CB. Milan fans are split on Botman, much like you all are. I suspect we (all--Newcastle and Milan fans) will praise him if he comes to us and disregard him and call him overrated if he doesn't. Jaap Stam talked openly about Botman's talent, that has to count for something. Maldini hinted that he might not fancy Botman, though, that could be a negotiating tactic.

 

The other financial advantage that Serie A has (which has flown under-the-radar among fans and sports journalists) is the new tax regime in Italy, which Milan has taken full advantage of. Basically, you pay half as much in taxes in Italy if you move there and live there for two years (at least), which is supposed to entice rich people to move back to Italy. Whether this absurd trickle-down economic theory works is up for debate, but, it is of huge benefit to Milan and Serie A, where they are able to match salaries of other clubs in other leagues while paying significantly less to offer the same after-tax salary to players. Similar tax laws in Spain (the "Beckham" law) allowed La Liga teams to not fall behind the EPL post 2006's Italian Scandal which displaced Serie A as the best league.

 

My theory is that Milan can match Newcastle's wage offer, but they are leveraging Botman's desire to join this Milan project to undercut Lille's position. It seems Newcastle is offering around 40m (Euros) and Milan 30m. There are also rumors that Elliott, who technically still own Milan (the closing to new owners will end in September) are also involved with Lille--which is the theory as to why we have done so much business with Lille. Lille's board is currently in turmoil and there seems to be sharp fissures between board members, which is possibly why Botman's transfer is so protracted. Milan are also interested in Renato Sanches from Lille, but he's in the last year of his contract, giving Lille significantly less leverage--that deal has not been completed yet, which seems to lend credence to the rumors over board conflict.

 

Also, in the Italian press, salaries are reported after tax, rather than before tax, like in England. Just so you know since I see many of you are looking at Italian news.

 

I must dissent from my fellow Milan fan, Di Marzio and SkyItalia are not very accurate with Milan anymore. He (Di Marzio) used to be, but with the change in ownership four years ago, his inside sources seems to have dried up. The most reliable source for Milan news is Antonio Vitiello (@AntoVitiello on Twitter) as he seems to be the mouth-piece for Milan's management. Another good source is Daniele Longo (@86_longo on Twitter) who breaks news first, but seems to report things that may be merely ideas or locker room rumors, but he seems to have an inside loop.

 

I realize this was very long, but, I figured I'd pretend to be James Horncastle and offer you a long read if you were so inclined. If I have offended any of you, please accept my apologies, and good luck to you this season! Cheers.

 

 

 

Thanks for the insight. Very interesting perspective on the possible revival of Serie A, I could see that. Anyway, Milan is a lovely city, and AC are a great club. I said already I wouldn't blame Botman for choosing them over us ( for now ) but like you, if he goes to Milan, then I'm sure we'll have alternatives lined up who will be just as good.

[Kanji]

Class post @Milanista I would say the mid 90s to early 2000s I would consider Milan my 2nd team. Loved Maldini and was basically my 1a or 1b favorite player next to Shearer. I will tell you right now, a re-charged Milan under Maldini's watchful eye is a draw that can be as iconic as Barca, Real, etc. Just mountainous clubs rich with winning history and traidtion. Not to mention the red/black stripes are legendary. 

 

Hopefully we do sign Botman over you all, as I think he'd be our future captain but I'd not begrudge the man for chosing to be part of the Milan project you described. 

[Mike]

41 minutes ago, HTT II said:

Mikes’ not even the best LFC fan on here!

 

 

 

 

Seventeen fucking years. The entire Ashley era.

[Kid Icarus]

3 minutes ago, Mike said:

 

Seventeen fucking years. The entire Ashley era.

 

[Guest HTT II]

4 minutes ago, Mike said:

 

Seventeen fucking years. The entire Ashley era.

It’s obviously caused some kind of brain damage to you, it was actually 20 years!

[Guest HTT II]

Mike is the best mod on here mind, licks hoop!

[Mike]

Just now, HTT II said:

It’s obviously caused some kind of brain damage to you, it was actually 20 years!

 

2005 CL final vs Milan made me a fan of this sport. 2005 season is when I picked this fucking club. 17.

[Guest HTT II]

1 minute ago, Mike said:

 

2005 CL final vs Milan made me a fan of this sport. 2005 season is when I picked this fucking club. 17.

You poor man, starting off with Souness and only finally ending on Bruce. That’s some shitty timeline! Better days are coming 

 

 

Edited June 10, 2022 by HTT II

[James]

I’m just waiting for the day that Lee Stewart renounces Man Utd and comes back to NUFC

[Reblancks]

Sky Italy: Botman to Newcastle for 50-55 million. Milan on Bremer which costs 25-30 mln. Possible inclusion of Pobega in the negotiation even if Milan would not want to sell him.

[Menace]

Good post but a bit of waffle, Serie A teams will never compete with Prem teams financially, not now or ever. For all the "pull" Milan have, you still signed Origi, a striker who is mid level Prem at best. Milan wouldn't challenge top 4 in the Prem imo, maybe top 6. 

 

Viewing figures and TV deals alone will make sure that the gap is never even close - compare Championship viewing figures with Serie A and you will see what I'm talking about.

 

 

Edited June 10, 2022 by Menace

[NE27]

Why is the premier league the most watched league worldwide btw? (I'm guessing it is here mind, could be wrong?)

 

I sort of get now why it might be, but I out that down to the insane wealth of owners that have stepped in, but what initiated the rise and wish to invest in the league globally?

 

Serie A and Italian football was big for me as a youngin in the 90's mind, had a nice inter top in 94 which literally fell of my body the amount I wore it to football training.

[Menace]

4 minutes ago, NE27 said:

Why is the premier league the most watched league worldwide btw? (I'm guessing it is here mind, could be wrong?)

 

I sort of get now why it might be, but I out that down to the insane wealth of owners that have stepped in, but what initiated the rise and wish to invest in the league globally?

 

Serie A and Italian football was big for me as a youngin in the 90's mind, had a nice inter top in 94 which literally fell of my body the amount I wore it to football training.

 

I'd suspect Wenger & Fergie had a huge hand to play with it, on top of Sky having a monopoly in the early days of broadcasting and what not

[Shearergol]

Deffo a Sky thing. 

[Groundhog63]

1 hour ago, Milanista said:

Lol, no, it's not. I know he's been a failure, I've seen some of his misses. I'm just saying I understand the logic of why he was bought, his ability to win headers, knock-downs, that sort of stuff he was doing with Burnley. It was perhaps taking data to the extreme, but it seems Newcastle's sporting executives are being smarter than other EPL sides with money.

He hasn't been a failure tho. Similar to a few other members of the squad labelled as shite, by the Gameboy boys, he was part of a team that turned its form on its head. 

Best dressing room most of them appear to have been in. 

It worked. The whole pie. 

 

[OpenC]

Also an important bit of data that he wasn't doing any of that stuff for relegation rivals Burnley any more; I reckon the deal was way more shithousery than is generally acknowledged but I'm not sure there's data on that

 

 

Edited June 10, 2022 by OpenC
new page out of context Wood post

[Nine]

Hes not that slow after all

[OpenC]

Almost twice as fast as we thought

[The Prophet]

At the rate the Italian media are reporting, we'll have offerer circa €100 million by 9PM.

[madras]

Just now, The Prophet said:

At the rate the Italian media are reporting, we'll have offerer circa €100 million by 9PM.

Are they still working in Lira ?

[gbandit]

Those freaks in Newcastle have offered Botman the deputy manager’s job like Mbappe and a say in all their transfers (CalcioMercato)

[Abacus]

I hear if he runs around the world anticlockwise that he's so fast time goes backwards.

[PauloGeordio]

Na na na na na na na na Botmaaaannn !

like grease lightening! 

[RodneyCisse]

55 miles an hour more like.

[PauloGeordio]

Just now, Abacus said:

I hear if he runs around the world anticlockwise that he's so fast time goes backwards.

Last Boy Scout  “if you go any faster we’re gonna travel back in time”