Coffee_Johnny Posted February 12, 2023 Share Posted February 12, 2023 (edited) Ok, I’ve adjusted the Top Ten Tracking chart to show average points, accumulated by month (assuming same number of games, per month, as this season) for 1st to 6th over the previous 30 seasons (adjusted for 38 games). The white bars represent fourth. I have placed Brighton home and West Ham away in March (neither date announced yet). In short, we’re still bang on for the average 4th place points total (41 points, end of Feb) with a game ‘in hand’/left to play this month. Edited February 12, 2023 by Coffee_Johnny Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
LFEE Posted February 12, 2023 Share Posted February 12, 2023 Is this true? Didn’t see much footy yesterday… Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
HaydnNUFC Posted February 12, 2023 Share Posted February 12, 2023 11 minutes ago, LFEE said: Is this true? Didn’t see much footy yesterday… Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
LFEE Posted February 12, 2023 Share Posted February 12, 2023 4 minutes ago, HaydnNUFC said: That’s a big blow for them you’d think. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lush Vlad Posted February 12, 2023 Share Posted February 12, 2023 Yep. He’s quality and with Bissouma also out for a bit. Leaves them short in midfield. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kid Icarus Posted February 12, 2023 Share Posted February 12, 2023 It was mad seeing it live. Looked innocuous, then he's rolling around in pain, you see the replay and hyper-extends his knee pit (only way I can think to describe it) which looks seriously painful. He gets some gas and air and the next thing he's on his feet looking like he might continue Big blow for them like. Him, Kulesevski, and Kane are the glitter the shit (their team) is rolled in. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Prophet Posted February 12, 2023 Share Posted February 12, 2023 Getting a bit tasty this like. Spurs, Brighton, Liverpool and ourselves. All in contention. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
madras Posted February 12, 2023 Share Posted February 12, 2023 4 minutes ago, The Prophet said: Getting a bit tasty this like. Spurs, Brighton, Liverpool and ourselves. All in contention. They all have to come here as well. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteV Posted February 12, 2023 Share Posted February 12, 2023 1 hour ago, HaydnNUFC said: They took a massive risk not signing a CM in the window…. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Theregulars Posted February 12, 2023 Share Posted February 12, 2023 1 hour ago, Lush Vlad said: Yep. He’s quality and with Bissouma also out for a bit. Leaves them short in midfield. Should have signed Shelvey. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coffee_Johnny Posted February 12, 2023 Share Posted February 12, 2023 Just now, Theregulars said: Should have signed Shelvey. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Theregulars Posted February 12, 2023 Share Posted February 12, 2023 1 minute ago, SteV said: They took a massive risk not signing a CM in the window…. I’d not say massive risk given they only play 2CMs and have Højbjerg, Bissouma, Skipp and Sarr; but given how guff Bissouma has been for them it may have been an idea to loan a CM instead of another winger/forward. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
gbandit Posted February 12, 2023 Share Posted February 12, 2023 Bentancur is one of the classiest players in the league, massive for Spurs. Kane will still get them a bunch of points they don’t deserve but they’re dangerously close to falling apart if he or Kulusevski get injured Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Theregulars Posted February 12, 2023 Share Posted February 12, 2023 This news certainly helps us in the quest for the top 4, and eases my concerns about our squad depth a little bit. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coffee_Johnny Posted February 12, 2023 Share Posted February 12, 2023 5 minutes ago, Theregulars said: This news certainly helps us in the quest for the top 4, and eases my concerns about our squad depth a little bit. Thank fuck for that, was thinking I’d have to give the forum a swerve during the most exciting couple of weeks in decades 😉 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
robbo_11 Posted February 12, 2023 Share Posted February 12, 2023 It should be an interesting month with European matches coming back in for a number of clubs. You would hope the extra games come into play with squad rotation, but might be opportunities for a new manager bounce if clubs appoint in next week or so. You would think Brentford fancy their chances and a few clashes between clubs in and around each other! Man United (46) - Barcelona (a), Leicester (h), Barcelona (h), Newcastle (n), West Ham (h), Liverpool (a), Southampton (h) Newcastle (41) - Liverpool (h), Man United (n), Man City (a), Wolves (h) Tottenham (39) - AC Milan (a), West Ham (h), Chelsea (h), Sheff United (a), Wolves (a), AC Milan (h), Nottingham Forest (h) Brighton (35) - Fulham (h), Stoke (a), West Ham (h), Leeds (a) Fulham (35) - Brighton (a), Wolves (h), Leeds (h), Brentford (a), Arsenal (h) Brentford (34) - Crystal Palace (h), Fulham (h), Everton (a) Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr Venkman Posted February 12, 2023 Share Posted February 12, 2023 I still fancy us to do it. We’re flatlining a bit but I think whoever said we’ll kick on after the final has it about right. Eddie will figure it out. Spurs are very average and I just don’t see Brighton as consistent enough. Gordon has looked really lively and Isak has only looked off it in one game. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr Venkman Posted February 12, 2023 Share Posted February 12, 2023 …and I think this Willock injury could lead to Gordon and Isak starting in a 4-2-3-1 which might freshen us up a bit and stop us being so predictable. Looking back at last night the main problem was the passing. Just an off night for lots of players. It happens. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Prophet Posted February 12, 2023 Share Posted February 12, 2023 Good thread. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coffee_Johnny Posted February 13, 2023 Share Posted February 13, 2023 Bear with me, but I’ve looked at who have left and used a formula to predict our likely points return on the basis of their current league position and whether the game is home or away. I appreciate people might think this has the same predictive validity as watching the way dried kelp turns in the wind, but I’ll share it anyway. Splitting the league in to quarters (A = 1st to 5th, B = 6-10 etc) and predicting results, here is the formula. For category A opposition, we will lose 100% of away matches and win and draw 50-50 of home matches. Category B: win/draw 25% each and lose 50% away; win 50% draw 25% lose 25% home. Category C: win 50% draw/lose 25% each away; win 75% and draw 25% at home. Category D: win 75% draw 25% away; win 100% home. We have these games left, in order (HOME, away): LIVERPOOL 10th B Man City 2nd a WOLVES 15th C N Forest 14th c MAN UTD 3rd A Brentford 8th b Villa 11th c SPURS 5th A Everton 18th d SOUTHAMPTON 20th D ARSENAL 1st A Leeds 17th d LEICESTER 13th C CHELSEA 9th B tbc West Ham 16th d BRIGHTON 6th B The kelp/formula predicts a return of between 26-34 points from the 42 available. We’ve 41 points at the mo, so that would mean between 67 and 75 points for the season. That puts us, reassuringly, round and about the average points totals for third and fourth place finishes over the last thirty seasons: 4th 68 and 3rd 73 points. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
The College Dropout Posted February 13, 2023 Share Posted February 13, 2023 14 hours ago, The Prophet said: Good thread. Interesting but a bit 2-dimensional. When we were overperforming Xg, our Xg was still top 4 in the league. Our Xg over the last 6 or so is 14/20. I've not had a chance to look at the data but I would assume our Big Chance numbers are down. A lot of that is down to game state. Earlier we were starting fast, scoring early and having teams come out and chase us so we could get them again on the counter (press). Now teams are sitting in much more, lack of space to counter (press). We haven't been in the lead for very long in recent weeks and teams have been happy with the draws home and away. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Prophet Posted February 13, 2023 Share Posted February 13, 2023 5 minutes ago, The College Dropout said: Interesting but a bit 2-dimensional. When we were overperforming Xg, our Xg was still top 4 in the league. Our Xg over the last 6 or so is 14/20. I've not had a chance to look at the data but I would assume our Big Chance numbers are down. A lot of that is down to game state. Earlier we were starting fast, scoring early and having teams come out and chase us so we could get them again on the counter (press). Now teams are sitting in much more, lack of space to counter (press). We haven't been in the lead for very long in recent weeks and teams have been happy with the draws home and away. I could be mistaken, but the last three league games (Palace, West Ham, Bournemouth), the xG has been pretty even and that matches the eye test too. All three were well worth a point, even if we did have chances to win the first two. It certainly suggests a drop off of sorts. Whether that's just short term form, or a long term trend remains to be seen. If it is fatigue, Bruno having a three game rest, Targett returning and Howe having to reshuffle the front three can only help. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kid Icarus Posted February 13, 2023 Share Posted February 13, 2023 Can you share the data you're using please? Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Prophet Posted February 13, 2023 Share Posted February 13, 2023 Just now, Kid Icarus said: Can you share the data you're using please? https://understat.com/team/Newcastle_United/2022 Just found this, though Not sure how accurate it is. It actually suggests that we were much the better team v Palace, but there was a bit of a drop off in the last two which coincides with Bruno's suspension. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kid Icarus Posted February 13, 2023 Share Posted February 13, 2023 Sorry, I meant for the xG being 14th in the league over the past 6 games, but I'll look at this too Yeah, Palace had that one shot that Pope saved and that was literally it. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
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