The Europeometer™ (2023/24) - NUFC to enter Conference League if Man City win FA Cup

[Paullow]

It's just a competitive league in general. Everton beating Arsenal, Wolves hammering Liverpool, Southampton winning away yesterday, Leeds drawing at Old Trafford. Even Bournemouth winning away yesterday at in form Wolves was a shock. City don't look as invincible now and dropped points yesterday as well, and much more than they normally would have at this stage.

 

Top 6 always has sounded significant, not sure why, but it does feel a lot different to 7th despite being only one place better and neither guaranteed Europe at the start of the season. Possibly something to do with the 'big 6', but it always felt bigger to me even before that. I'd probably take 6th now if offered because I can see Spurs and Liverpool passing us, and just takes one of Brighton in particular, Fulham or Brentford stringing a few wins together. Chelsea do look too far behind, and too many hard matches that it will be hard for them to overturn a 4 game disadvantage, although they do of course play us at Stamford Bridge.

 

[Paullow]

Does top 6 generally sound more significant to others, and if so, why do you think that is?

[The Prophet]

1 minute ago, Paullow said:

Does top 6 generally sound more significant to others, and if so, why do you think that is?

 

It usually guarantees a Europa League spot.

 

[STM]

As soon as this cup final and couple of tough fixtures are out the way, we will see a different Newcastle. We can press the reset button, get players back and start our recovery.

 

It will get worse before it gets better but it will get better results wise.

[Kid Icarus]

I cannot believe this fucking shite Spurs team are about to enter the top 4

[Paullow]

6 minutes ago, The Prophet said:

 

It usually guarantees a Europa League spot.

 

Yeah, possibly, although while almost certainly will, and can't remember the last time a team finishing 6th wouldn't have had European football, 6th doesn't necessarily guarantee it. But even going back to the mid 90s, Everton beating Man Utd in the FA Cup final meant our 6th place finish wasn't enough for Europe, but that finish feels a lot better than the 7th place finish in the 00s (Bramble vs Chelsea) which did get us into Europe via the backdoor. Doesn't seem much difference to finishing 5th like we have twice in the PL to 6th, whereas 6th to 7th does. I'd often highlight our 8 PL top 6 finishes, even with one of them not getting Europe, whereas I wouldn't say 9 top 7 finishes if that makes sense.

 

Also really surprising that with no Intertoto or Fair Play these days, there's sometimes less teams in Europe in 2023 than there was in the late 90's.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1997–98_FA_Premier_League

[HaydnNUFC]

14 minutes ago, Kid Icarus said:

I cannot believe this fucking shite Spurs team are about to enter the top 4

 

They're shocking, like. Kane, Kulusevski et al just dig them out the shit over and over. Bentancur will be a miss for them but I'll actually be a bit disappointed if they finish above us. 

[wormy]

37 minutes ago, Paullow said:

Does top 6 generally sound more significant to others, and if so, why do you think that is?

 

Personally I don't see it as much more significant unless it gets Europe and 7th doesn't, but I can see why people may think it is for the the reasons already mentioned. Firstly, you may feel like you're cracking that 'big six' and not just being 'best of the rest'. Secondly, without looking back I can imagine European qualification drops to 6th more often than it doesn't, so still feels like a likely chance of Europe compared to 7th being much more uncertain.

[Gawalls]

29 minutes ago, HaydnNUFC said:

 

They're shocking, like. Kane, Kulusevski et al just dig them out the shit over and over. Bentancur will be a miss for them but I'll actually be a bit disappointed if they finish above us. 

Blame us though - couldn’t beat Leeds, West Ham or a lot of other teams down there. 6th is a great season still and I feel that’s what we’re aiming for realistically.

[Paullow]

18 minutes ago, wormy said:

 

Personally I don't see it as much more significant unless it gets Europe and 7th doesn't, but I can see why people may think it is for the the reasons already mentioned. Firstly, you may feel like you're cracking that 'big six' and not just being 'best of the rest'. Secondly, without looking back I can imagine European qualification drops to 6th more often than it doesn't, so still feels like a likely chance of Europe compared to 7th being much more uncertain.

There have been a lot more 'top 4' (obviously) and 'top 6' options on betting sites, whereas you'll rarely see the same for top 5 or top 7 odds. It's been like that for years, but whether the 'big 6' has influenced that market being present, I'm not sure.

 

https://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/top-6-finish

 

On a less related note, I see Brighton are around 11/8 to finish top 6, whereas Fulham, despite that shock and smash and grab win yesterday, are still way out at 10/1.

 

Maybe another thing, and perhaps more relevant to when we were both battling to stay in the league year on year prior to 2016, with minimal ambition and optimism, but Sunderland haven't finished in the top 6 of the top flight since 1954/55, almost 70 years, so when things were bleak, and the teams were more comparable, the fact they hadn't finished that high in most people's lives whearas we had a number of times, perhaps that possibly played a small part in it looking more significant as well.

 

[Heron]

Now 5th

[et tu brute]

Just now, Heron said:

Now 5th

No surprise if you can't get wins in a spell of games against the likes of Leeds, Palace, Bournemouth and West Ham then you're going to struggle for teams to not move ahead in the table. Not a rant just a fact. 

[HaydnNUFC]

We were always going to drop outside the top 4 given some teams play 3 times before we next play a team in the league that isn't Man City. Games in hand, and finally getting a fucking break with the international break coming up will be a godsend tbh ahead of a crucial run in, especially at home.

[JUICE690]

We're still relying of players like Matt Ritchie. This was inevitable. Squad is paper thin.

Full strength, we can beat anyone. Our bench options will be the reason we miss out on 4th. It was a crazy reach in such a trasitional season but I'm not sure we'll get an 'easier' chance with so many big sides underperforming.

Not over yet though.

 

 

Edited February 19, 2023 by JUICE690

[Broadsword]

I’m not sure what happened to our pressing and the training ground free kicks that we had earlier in the season. Seems to be either nerves or fitness. I think this cup final has been the undoing of our league season to be honest, that and Bruno’s red card. 

[SUPERTOON]

Psychological boost to be chasing, instead of being chased ?

[The Prophet]

5 minutes ago, et tu brute said:

No surprise if you can't get wins in a spell of games against the likes of Leeds, Palace, Bournemouth and West Ham then you're going to struggle for teams to not move ahead in the table. Not a rant just a fact. 

 

The opposition is rather irrelevant. One win in six will generally see you drop down the league.

[Kid Icarus]

Wouldn't mind if it wasn't fucking Spurs and their shite football going ahead of us.

 

Chelsea and Brighton have ended up being the only good results for us in what has otherwise been an awful weekend of FA Premier League football.

[pubteam]

Oh well was fun while it lasted.

[et tu brute]

2 minutes ago, The Prophet said:

 

The opposition is rather irrelevant. One win in six will generally see you drop down the league.

It's not irrelevant when it's games you should be winning if you want to maintain 4th place. 

[KDT]

10 minutes ago, JUICE690 said:

We're still relying of players like Matt Ritchie. This was inevitable. Squad is paper thin.

Full strength, we can beat anyone. Our bench options will be the reason we miss out on 4th. It was a crazy reach in such a trasitional season but I'm not sure we'll get an 'easier' chance with so many big sides underperforming.

Not over yet though.

 

 

 

Ritchie has to played about 30 minutes all season in the league, absolutely no way are we relying on him.

[The Prophet]

There is still a chance our form turns and we finish top four like.

[JUICE690]

3 minutes ago, KDT said:

Ritchie has to played about 30 minutes all season in the league, absolutely no way are we relying on him.

Just an example of the strength of our bench. And if he comes on, we are still relying on him, no matter the minutes.

 

 

Edited February 19, 2023 by JUICE690

[Paullow]

Home

Arsenal

Man Utd

Tottenham

Brighton

Leicester

Wolves

Southampton

 

Away

Man City

Chelsea

Villa

Brentford

Everton

Forest 

West Ham

Leeds

 

I haven't checked the order and that will become a bit more significant if we play some teams when they have nothing to play, or maybe have a cup QF / SF / final on their mind, like what we have, and it's more of an 'on paper' order of difficulty, but there do look some very difficult fixtures there. The likes of Forest are very good at home, unbeaten in 8 now, Goodison was a bit of a fortress late last season, Dyche has won 2 out of 2 at home, there is always a bit of needle in the fixture, and the Gordon factor won't help. There's honestly not many there that I look at and think that should be 3 points. Maybe Wolves and Southampton at home, and possibly one or two of the bottom 6 (on the list, not table) away matches, and of course we will pick up some wins / results in matches we weren't necessarily expecting, but we have passed up a lot of winnable fixtures in 2022, a lot more favourable looking than a lot of those remaining.

 

 

 

 

 

Edited February 19, 2023 by Paullow

[Kid Icarus]

1 minute ago, Paullow said:

Home

Arsenal

Man Utd

Tottenham

Brighton

Leicester

Wolves

Southampton

 

Away

Man City

Chelsea

Villa

Brentford

Everton

Forest 

West Ham

Leeds

 

I haven't checked the order and that will become a bit more significant if we play some teams when they have nothing to play, or maybe have a cup QF / SF / final on their mind, like what we have, and it's more of an 'on paper' order of difficulty, but there do look some very difficult fixtures there. The likes of Forest are very good at home, unbeaten in 8 now, Goodison was a bit of a fortress late last season, Dyche has won 2 out of 2 at home, there is always a bit of needle in the fixture, and the Gordon factor won't help. There's honestly not many there that I look at and think that should be 3 points. Maybe Wolves and Southampton at home, and possibly one or two of the bottom 6 away matches, and of course we will pick up some results in matches we weren't expecting, but we have passed up a lot of winnable fixtures in 2022, a lot more favourable looking than a lot of those remaining.

 

 

 

It's always the way when your form's poor and everything looks winnable when you're in good form.

 

I'm just hoping that after the final, regardless of what happens we turn a corner and our form improves. My main cause for optimism is that I think it's solely down to poor finishing. I'd be really worried if we were playing badly or creating nothing, but that's not the case.