The Europeometer™ (2024/25) - NUFC Qualify for Champions League

[madras]

Didn't know where to put this but here seemed as good as any......

 

You know that there'll be a point towards the end of the season when Ŵillocks back, so is Isak, Anderson,  Barnes can last 90 and we'll give someone a beating.......and we'll wistfully dream of what could have been.

[SUPERTOON]

1 minute ago, madras said:

Didn't know where to put this but here seemed as good as any......

 

You know that there'll be a point towards the end of the season when Ŵillocks back, so is Isak, Anderson,  Barnes can last 90 and we'll give someone a beating.......and we'll wistfully dream of what could have been.

I wouldn’t bet on all those being fit at one time with the way this season has gone. 

[midds]

1 minute ago, madras said:

Didn't know where to put this but here seemed as good as any......

 

You know that there'll be a point towards the end of the season when Ŵillocks back, so is Isak, Anderson,  Barnes can last 90 and we'll give someone a beating.......and we'll wistfully dream of what could have been.

Brentford (A) 

[Sibierski]

1 hour ago, Beth said:

Looks like we are one of five teams fighting for 7th now.

Cheering on Liverpool next weekend to ensure European spot drops to 6th, and hope someone in top 6 wins FA Cup if we don’t. Then it keeps Europa Conference leagues hopes alive.

[Wolfcastle]

Steady on ffs, its just the conference league, if its a benefit at all its marginal and certainly doesn't justify cheering on those horrible bastards

[Beth]

31 minutes ago, Sibierski said:

Cheering on Liverpool next weekend to ensure European spot drops to 6th, and hope someone in top 6 wins FA Cup if we don’t. Then it keeps Europa Conference leagues hopes alive.

8th would get the ECL if Liverpool win the LC and England get an extra CL spot for 5th. Going off current form Chelsea have to be favourites for 7th now.

 

 

Edited February 17, 2024 by Beth

[Solitude20]

Yeah, top 6 this season is virtually impossible now with our current team/injuries. 
 

It will be us, Brighton, West Ham, and Chelsea fighting for 7th and 8th for any European football next season. 

[TRon]

On 17/02/2024 at 21:43, Wolfcastle said:

Steady on ffs, its just the conference league, if its a benefit at all its marginal and certainly doesn't justify cheering on those horrible bastards

 

 

[timeEd32]

Coefficient update

 

1. Italy - 15.571 (+0.857 since last week)

2. Germany - 14.500 (+0.572)

3. England - 13.875 (no change, thanks Arsenal)

4. France - 13.250 (+1.000)

5. Spain - 13.187 (+0.250)

 

Despite Arsenal's defeat I think England have to be considered the favorites for the second spot. A lot of things went right in the last two weeks. 

 

Italy still haven't had a team eliminated and are in an incredibly strong spot, though its three CL teams are all away for the second leg. Brighton v. Roma could help England make up ground.

 

It's annoying that Freiburg got through, but Frankfurt is out. The CL second legs will be interesting. West Ham v. Freiburg in the EL is huge. 

 

France is pretty much done with Lens, Toulouse, and Rennes all going out yesterday. 

 

Betis is out so Spain is left with 5 out of 7 teams and four of them are in the CL. They will need Villareal and Barcelona or Atletico to join Real on deep runs.

 

 

[Guest]

Doubt it'll affect us now unless it's the difference between Europa and Europa Conference.

[timeEd32]

Just now, Optimistic Nut said:

Doubt it'll affect us now unless it's the difference between Europa and Europa Conference.

 

That's what I'm focused on. I'm assuming (though find it hilarious no one seems to know for sure) that England getting the 5th CL spot will make 7th Europa League instead of Conference, assuming a top 6 team wins the FA Cup which is also likely given who's left (or we'll win it). 

[Kilcline]

11 minutes ago, timeEd32 said:

 

That's what I'm focused on. I'm assuming (though find it hilarious no one seems to know for sure) that England getting the 5th CL spot will make 7th Europa League instead of Conference, assuming a top 6 team wins the FA Cup which is also likely given who's left (or we'll win it). 

There was an explainer on Sky Sports this week that said it would mean Europe goes down to 8th if both cup winners are in the top 6, first time I'd seen it "confirmed" assuming it wasn't bullshit or guesswork 

[timeEd32]

1 minute ago, Kilcline said:

There was an explainer on Sky Sports this week that said it would mean Europe goes down to 8th if both cup winners are in the top 6, first time I'd seen it "confirmed" assuming it wasn't bullshit or guesswork 

 

I've seen lots of things that say European places will go down an extra spot, but haven't seen anyone explicitly say 7th would be EL (with the right cup winner). It makes logical sense since getting a 5th CL spot wouldn't, presumably, take away a EL spot. Either way it definitely increases our odds of European football and it most likely makes the EL a much more realistic target. 

[Yorkie]

I don't like this expansion of places at all, tbh. Finishing 5th in the PL really shouldn't earn entry into the highest echelon of European competition.

 

The better thing to do would've been to fast-track actual champions from lower-ranked leagues; or at least more runners-up from the slightly-lower ranked ones. It's mad that the league winners from the likes of Sweden, Romania and Poland have to start way back in the early qualifiers.

 

I get that the 'Champions' League retains that name for no reason beyond it being far too strong a brand to lose - rather than it having anything to do with any champions... but still, it would be nice to have a few more of its entrants actually meet the definition.  

 

Even getting entry into Europe by finishing 8th feels quite unmerited. I like the UCL and would embrace being in it but if it's that easy to qualify it loses that sense of gravitas; which it already struggles with. 

[Colos Short and Curlies]

Said it before but I'd love a season where everyone in the top leagues in every UEFA nation qualifies for a straight up one legged knock out competition with no seeding and no country restrictions.

 

It would be absolute chaos but great fun and you would have a genuine champion of Europe.

 

Real Madrid vs some Welsh minnow first round, playing in front of 10 angry welsh men and 50 sheep

[timeEd32]

They'll never do this because less games = less money, but scrapping the Conference League and combining all its teams with the EL into one big knockout only tournament would be a far more interesting alternative to the CL.

[The College Dropout]

Conference League is great.

[The College Dropout]

1 hour ago, Yorkie said:

I don't like this expansion of places at all, tbh. Finishing 5th in the PL really shouldn't earn entry into the highest echelon of European competition.

 

The better thing to do would've been to fast-track actual champions from lower-ranked leagues; or at least more runners-up from the slightly-lower ranked ones. It's mad that the league winners from the likes of Sweden, Romania and Poland have to start way back in the early qualifiers.

 

I get that the 'Champions' League retains that name for no reason beyond it being far too strong a brand to lose - rather than it having anything to do with any champions... but still, it would be nice to have a few more of its entrants actually meet the definition.  

 

Even getting entry into Europe by finishing 8th feels quite unmerited. I like the UCL and would embrace being in it but if it's that easy to qualify it loses that sense of gravitas; which it already struggles with. 

Have you watched the Champions League group stages?

 

The disparity between clubs from the top nations and the champions of smaller European nations is enormous. A lot of uncompetitive games already.

[Guest]

1 hour ago, The College Dropout said:

Have you watched the Champions League group stages?

 

The disparity between clubs from the top nations and the champions of smaller European nations is enormous. A lot of uncompetitive games already.

 

Yeah, was more even up to the 70s probably due to clubs' followings being more regionalised since. Less live football on TV (particularly overseas games), no internet, etc so I guess big clubs in each country were more even..

 

Seems like from late 80s with Serie A, then the Premier League in the 90s and La Liga kicking off globally, it's made it almost impossible for the rest to keep up. Not sure there'll ever be a fix.

[Yorkie]

2 hours ago, The College Dropout said:

Have you watched the Champions League group stages?

 

The disparity between clubs from the top nations and the champions of smaller European nations is enormous. A lot of uncompetitive games already.

 

Yes.

 

One way to narrow the chasm is to apportion the revenues more widely. What's proposed will have the opposite effect. Such is modern football.

[Heron]

3 hours ago, Yorkie said:

I don't like this expansion of places at all, tbh. Finishing 5th in the PL really shouldn't earn entry into the highest echelon of European competition.

 

The better thing to do would've been to fast-track actual champions from lower-ranked leagues; or at least more runners-up from the slightly-lower ranked ones. It's mad that the league winners from the likes of Sweden, Romania and Poland have to start way back in the early qualifiers.

 

I get that the 'Champions' League retains that name for no reason beyond it being far too strong a brand to lose - rather than it having anything to do with any champions... but still, it would be nice to have a few more of its entrants actually meet the definition.  

 

Even getting entry into Europe by finishing 8th feels quite unmerited. I like the UCL and would embrace being in it but if it's that easy to qualify it loses that sense of gravitas; which it already struggles with. 

Totally agree.

[El Prontonise]

26 minutes ago, Optimistic Nut said:

 

Yeah, was more even up to the 70s probably due to clubs' followings being more regionalised since. Less live football on TV (particularly overseas games), no internet, etc so I guess big clubs in each country were more even..

 

Seems like from late 80s with Serie A, then the Premier League in the 90s and La Liga kicking off globally, it's made it almost impossible for the rest to keep up. Not sure there'll ever be a fix.

 

It was more even till the 91. 

 

Look at the winners between 85 and 91, a mix of different countries minus Milan side.

[The College Dropout]

58 minutes ago, Yorkie said:

 

Yes.

 

One way to narrow the chasm is to apportion the revenues more widely. What's proposed will have the opposite effect. Such is modern football.

This is a good idea but how would that work? They keep going out early. 

[Colos Short and Curlies]

I suppose today has technically gone better than expected with ManU losing and Brighton dropping points at home

[Coffee_Johnny]

As the dust settles on yesterday’s humiliating defeat/reality check, we are sitting in 8th place, 7 points behind Man Utd in 6th, and at risk of both West Ham and Chelsea (who each have a game in hand) overtaking us.
However, taking into account the relative difficulty of games across the season, we are only 4.4 points away from the points we may have expected to accumulate to be on track for a sixth place finish (using PL points for sixth in an average season). 


There are 36 points available. If we continue at the same Points Per Game as the last 26 games (1.31 PPG), we would end-up with around 53 points. In order to hit the 62 points usually enough for 6th, we would need 25 points from 12 games; so 2.08 PPG. 
 

If that sounds completely unachievable, then it is worth remembering that our PPG for the last 12 games of 2022 was 2.33 (won 8 and drew 4). Last 12 of 2022/23 season was 2.0 PPG (W7 D3 L 2). Not directly  comparable, but it at least shows that under Howe, with a lesser squad if we get players back now,  we have had runs which could realistically give us a 2.08 PPG return or better for the remaining games of this season.

These consist of only one ‘Tier 1’ team (Man Utd away), four Tier 2 teams (Chelsea and Brentford away; Spurs and Brighton at home). Four Tier 3 teams (Palace and Fulham away; Wolves and West Ham at home). Three Tier 4 teams (Burnley away; Everton and Sheffield Utd at home). I think we can get 25 points or better from those 12 games.
So I’m not giving up on some kind of European involvement next year, at least not  just yet.