The Europeometer™ (2024/25) - NUFC Qualify for Conference League (at least)

[The College Dropout]

5 minutes ago, Mazzy said:

 

I agree with that. Especially considering we have to play them still so that would mean they only have to lose one game in the other 3.

 

Unlikely, as you say, but I think finishing 2nd is currently more likely than finishing 7th for example.

 

 

 

You’re projecting Arsenal lose 2 games out of their last 4. They’ve lost 3 in 34.  

[Crimson Cardigan]

1 minute ago, The College Dropout said:

Forest are faltering but still have 3 of the easiest fixtures in the PL and a 6 pointer. 
 

West Ham and Leicester are 2 of the worst teams in the Division. Palace will be distracted by their biggest game ever coming up.  Forest might fuck it up but I expect they will have a minimum of 64 points by the end of GW37.  Which is ideal for us.  I think Chelsea will have 64/66 at that point too. 

Away to Palace is not an easy fixture and certainly not for a Forest side low on confidence, low on energy and getting beaten regularly of late.

[Mazzy]

4 minutes ago, The College Dropout said:

You’re projecting Arsenal lose 2 games out of their last 4. They’ve lost 3 in 34.  

 

Oh yes totally impossible isn't  it, sorry about that.....

 

How about losing ONE game a drawing TWO, is that a better projection? 

 

[The College Dropout]

21 minutes ago, Crimson Cardigan said:

Away to Palace is not an easy fixture and certainly not for a Forest side low on confidence, low on energy and getting beaten regularly of late.

They tend to be better away. Have nothing to play for in the league.  Cup final coming up. We seem to dip a bit ahead of finals, assume Palace will too. 
 

Teams you would prefer to face:

bottom 3

 

Spurs 

man U

West Ham & Palace

 

The rest is a tough game 

[NobbySolano]

i must be the only one that hates this "draw and win one" stick from everyone.

 

I am trying to do the math to finish 2nd. Win out and 2nd is ours, and I see no reason to think its not possible.

 

Likely might be too far, but win at the Amex this weekend and I think Howe and the lads will believe it themselves

[Paullow]

Usually in a two option outcome, in this case yes or no, if something was 1/8 (odds on) the other option would be around 5/1 (odds against). Mind, not many traditional bookies, bar Paddy Power, seem to offer top 5 odds, most seem to still just be doing top 4 odds, so it will be very tough outside of betting exchanges, to be able to get direct odds for Newcastle 'not to finish in the top 5'. In terms of traditional bookies, as others point out, you can't really hedge bets, because you could put £100 on Forest to make the top 5 at 4/5 and it could still be Newcastle and Forest finishing 6th and 7th, and you've wasted £100 and haven't even got the 'emotional' outcome in place of Newcastle securing their place.

 

If someone was offering 9/2 or 5/1 for Newcastle to finish outside the top 5, which seems to be what they would be if someone was offering, then I'd definitely be putting money on because it feels really close, and Sunday is a huge match.

[Crimson Cardigan]

1 hour ago, The College Dropout said:

They tend to be better away. Have nothing to play for in the league.  Cup final coming up. We seem to dip a bit ahead of finals, assume Palace will too. 
 

Teams you would prefer to face:

bottom 3

 

Spurs 

man U

West Ham & Palace

 

The rest is a tough game 

It could play out differently though.

 

Palace will want to continue their momentum (the cup final is a way off yet). You don’t want to be going into a final off the back of bad results. We beat West Ham going into the Carabao cup and I think that was huge compared to our poor form going into the Man U final.

 

forest were really bad against Brentford and Everton.

 

Also, at least with Man U, Amorim can’t just keep losing games indefinitely. They also have the benefit of having an opposition player sent off against them every week and Villa never, ever, ever win at Old Trafford regardless of the circumstances.

 

So I can see a world where Villa and Forest drop a good few more points yet.

 

that said, probably just best focus on doing the biz against Brighton.

[Stottie]

On 28/04/2025 at 05:18, JigsawGoesToPieces said:

Dale Johnson updated Europe pemultations.

 

If Palace win the FA Cup

 

Champions League: 1-5
Europa League: 6, Crystal Palace as FA Cup winners
Conference League: Newcastle United

 

if Man City win the FA Cup

 

Champions League: 1-5
Europa League: 6, 7
Conference League: Newcastle United

 

If Newcastle finish top 7

 

Champions League: 1-5
Europa League: 6, 7
Conference League: 8

 

Two things here. First is if Man City win the Cup, they are favourites, seventh gets Europa League. This means there's very little chance, my guess would be less than one in one hundred, we don't get at least Europa League. Which as Man U and Spurs are suggesting, is probably easier than to progress in than used to be and offers a way into the CL for the winner. Note that I want and expect CL, us collapsing under Eddie Howe would be very uncharacteristic. I am only bringing this up to soothe any last minute nerves from the players and fanbase. We won't be in the Conference League next season. We'll be in one of the two better competitions. 

 

Secondly, us being basically nailed on for top 7 means eighth will get Europe. Man City and Villa both have to play both Bournemouth and Fulham who are in contention for eighth. We have to play Brighton, who are the same. Anyone saying VIlla have easy fixtures is saying teams in genuine European contention are easy opposition.

 

[Optimistic Nut]

1 hour ago, NobbySolano said:

i must be the only one that hates this "draw and win one" stick from everyone.

 

I am trying to do the math to finish 2nd. Win out and 2nd is ours, and I see no reason to think its not possible.

 

Likely might be too far, but win at the Amex this weekend and I think Howe and the lads will believe it themselves

 

Win the last 4 and I think we finish 2nd.

 

Would take some effort but what a statement it'd be for next season in terms of enticing players, and showing Isak, Tonali, etc that we can give them the accolades they chase. Would likely be relying on Arsenal getting to the CL Final to take their eyes off the league though.

 

 

Edited 8 hours ago by Optimistic Nut

[PauloGeordio]

2 minutes ago, Optimistic Nut said:

 

Win the last 4 and I think we finish 2nd.

 

Would take some effort but what a statement it'd be for next season in terms of enticing players, and showing Isak, Tonali, etc that we can give them the accolades they chase. Would likely be relying on Arsenal getting to the CL Final to take their eyes off the league though.

 

 

 

No doubt Eddie and the boys will be focused and trying to achieve maximum points 

[Geogaddi]

37 minutes ago, Paullow said:

Usually in a two option outcome, in this case yes or no, if something was 1/8 (odds on) the other option would be around 5/1 (odds against). Mind, not many traditional bookies, bar Paddy Power, seem to offer top 5 odds, most seem to still just be doing top 4 odds, so it will be very tough outside of betting exchanges, to be able to get direct odds for Newcastle 'not to finish in the top 5'. In terms of traditional bookies, as others point out, you can't really hedge bets, because you could put £100 on Forest to make the top 5 at 4/5 and it could still be Newcastle and Forest finishing 6th and 7th, and you've wasted £100 and haven't even got the 'emotional' outcome in place of Newcastle securing their place.

 

If someone was offering 9/2 or 5/1 for Newcastle to finish outside the top 5, which seems to be what they would be if someone was offering, then I'd definitely be putting money on because it feels really close, and Sunday is a huge match.

Yeah best thing to do if you are that way inclined is lay us on Betfair in the top 5 market.

[timeEd32]

If City beat Villa we could be five clear 

 

[City wins]

 

I'm still worried Villa will win the rest and can't see Forest losing, but if we just take care of what we need to do we'll be fine.

 

[Beat Ipswich 3-0]

 

Now that Villa and Forest are out of the cup they have no distractions and Liverpool winning the title means they are now terrible

 

[Forest lose to Brentford]

 

Man United and Spurs and Palace and the Amex and everything is bad 

-----------------

 

You all are going to drive yourselves mad. The most relevant fact is since mid-December (i.e. The Rise of Tonali), which is the equivalent of half a season as of now, we are the second best team in the country and we beat the only one better in a cup final. 

[Dr.Spaceman]

Aye but we lost at home to West Ham

[PauloGeordio]

10 minutes ago, timeEd32 said:

If City beat Villa we could be five clear 

 

[City wins]

 

I'm still worried Villa will win the rest and can't see Forest losing, but if we just take care of what we need to do we'll be fine.

 

[Beat Ipswich 3-0]

 

Now that Villa and Forest are out of the cup they have no distractions and Liverpool winning the title means they are now terrible

 

[Forest lose to Brentford]

 

Man United and Spurs and Palace and the Amex and everything is bad 

-----------------

 

You all are going to drive yourselves mad. The most relevant fact is since mid-December (i.e. The Rise of Tonali), which is the equivalent of half a season as of now, we are the second best team in the country and we beat the only one better in a cup final. 

This! 

 

[MagPar]

If arsenal win the cl does that mean that 6th place gets cl football? 

[ramirez]

3 minutes ago, MagPar said:

If arsenal win the cl does that mean that 6th place gets cl football? 

only if they were the team to finish 6th, not sure if that can happen.

[ramirez]

football ranking projecting man u in pot 1 for cl, as we couldn't play any of the other english pot 1 sides (liverpool, arsenal and city) we would then play 2 of 5 from PSG, BAyern, Inter, Real or Barca.  Leverkusen would fill in for Man United although not sure what Spurs or possibly Chelseas coefficient is.  

 

Obviously a long way to go but Real Madrid (A) and Bayern (H) would be my ideal picks for new opponents.

 

 

Edited 7 hours ago by ramirez

[SteV]

6 minutes ago, ramirez said:

football ranking projecting man u in pot 1 for cl, as we couldn't play any of the other english pot 1 sides (liverpool, arsenal and city) we would then play 2 of 5 from PSG, BAyern, Inter, Real or Barca.  Leverkusen would fill in for Man United although not sure what Spurs or possibly Chelseas coefficient is.  

 

Obviously a long way to go but Real Madrid (A) and Bayern (H) would be my ideal picks for new opponents.

 

 

 

Other way round for me. Tremendous bantz if Mbappe were to get turned over at SJP again.

[ramirez]

Just now, SteV said:

Other way round for me. Tremendous bantz if Mbappe were to get turned over at SJP again.

yeah less chance of getting battered of the police in Germany too.  

[Displayname]

3 hours ago, The College Dropout said:

You’re projecting Arsenal lose 2 games out of their last 4. They’ve lost 3 in 34.  

They also won 3 in their last 9 in PL. 

If we win our last 4 we got a very decent chance of getting 2nd.

[alexf]

We did lose Joelinton. That no doubt plays on people's minds and adds into the calculation of how likely we are to win certain games etc. 

 

Also each game playing the same players adds to the chance of further injuries or suspension. So each round creates a new variable which makes the whole thing far from simple. 

 

A little while ago I was pretty confident we would smash Chelsea at home. But missing Big Joe, Isak looking slightly off it recently, Chelsea picking up a little bit of form, albeit against poorish sides, is starting to creep in a small bit of doubt. 

 

But hopefully the lads have one last final push in them and smash these last few games. 

[Geordie Ahmed]

31 minutes ago, ramirez said:

only if they were the team to finish 6th, not sure if that can happen.

 

It's still mathematically possibly but very, very unlikely to happen 

[AngelofTheFourth]

1 hour ago, Crimson Cardigan said:

It could play out differently though.

 

Palace will want to continue their momentum (the cup final is a way off yet). You don’t want to be going into a final off the back of bad results. We beat West Ham going into the Carabao cup and I think that was huge compared to our poor form going into the Man U final.

 

Disagree Palace were on a 4 match winless run before they slapped up Villa in the Prem. They don't care about the league anymore. They could easily beat this forest side if they cared but they most likely won't.

 

1 hour ago, Crimson Cardigan said:

Also, at least with Man U, Amorim can’t just keep losing games indefinitely. They also have the benefit of having an opposition player sent off against them every week and Villa never, ever, ever win at Old Trafford regardless of the circumstances.

 

They're record at Old Trafford is better than ours is at the Amex.

 

I dont trust any team that doesn't have a sniff of european football to try and win their games against the 5 UCL competitors. Its the Bournemouth and Fulham game I'm relying on

[AyeDubbleYoo]

Opta has us at 84% likely to get CL, FWIW. Finishing 4th just behind Man City. Chelsea miss out in 6th. 

 

We only need to prevent Chelsea and Forest from both catching us. It doesn't really matter if Man City win all their games. 

 

I think even if we only collect 5 or 6 more points we'll do it, but expect us to get 7+.

 

 

Edited 7 hours ago by AyeDubbleYoo

[Mazzy]

3 minutes ago, AyeDubbleYoo said:

Opta has us at 84% likely to get CL, FWIW. Finishing 4th just behind Man City. Chelsea miss out in 6th. 

 

 

 

 

Considering our fixtures, 84% is a lot.  I think the way our fixtures are laid out makes me more nervous.

 

Our "easiest" game left being the last game of the season isn't helpful. I don't like the idea of going into the last day NEEDING to get anything, even if it's only a point. I'd much rather have the Everton home game this weekend or next and just get 5th or higher guaranteed.