The Europeometer™ (2024/25) - NUFC Qualify for Conference League (at least)

[Groundhog63]

7 hours ago, The Butcher said:

 

That is class 😂😂😂

[Erikse]

Wouldn't rely on Forest regardless, but if they lose to West Ham, they will in all likelyhood be going into the Chelsea game without a chance of getting 6th. In one way that could discourage them, but in another way they won't have the pressure that they have been crumbling under lately.

 

 

Edited 4 hours ago by Erikse

[nufcjb]

I have a feeling (maybe a stupid, hopeless one) that Man Utd might at least get a draw against Chelsea. Their defeat to West Ham was so bad and with Amorim pretty much telling his players off to the media, hopefully they atleast don't just lie down on Friday. They have somehow dugged up some big results against the big teams this season like City and Liverpool away so hopefully they can do something.

 

Spurs are hopeless though. Villa win.

 

Any dropped points by the others, we'd have our tails up for our match on Sunday. Forget top 5, "you can tell him now if you're watching it, we're still fighting for this 2nd place, and he can bring all the light bulbs he wants into the dressing room.and hope he gets them to work, and... and... I'll tell you, honestly, I will love it if we beat them, love it!" 

 

 

Edited 1 hour ago by nufcjb

[Colos Short and Curlies]

I'm not convinced that City will beat both Bournemouth and Fulham and can see Southampton getting something against Arsenal last day the way Arsenal have been playing recently.

 

So even a draw on Sunday and I think 2nd is a real possibility

[Stifler]

Opta have us down as finishing 3rd on 69 points. It has Man City a point behind us, so obviously assumes that we’ll lose to Arsenal, and Man City will also lose a game.

In what can only be seen as an error, they have Villa finishing 5th level on points with Chelsea, but Chelsea’s GD is much higher than Villa’s.

They only have Forest down as drawing their next game, and presumably losing to Chelsea.

 

 

[healthyaddiction]

I think you're taking the point predictions a little too literally.

[TRon]

23 hours ago, Beren said:

Spurs and Man Utd have to be close to 'bringing the game into disrepute' territory.

 

 

More chance of the FA getting sued for disrepute of a cartel club if they even contemplated it.

[McEwan]

59 minutes ago, Stifler said:

Opta have us down as finishing 3rd on 69 points. It has Man City a point behind us, so obviously assumes that we’ll lose to Arsenal, and Man City will also lose a game.

In what can only be seen as an error, they have Villa finishing 5th level on points with Chelsea, but Chelsea’s GD is much higher than Villa’s.

They only have Forest down as drawing their next game, and presumably losing to Chelsea.

 

 

The points predictions are averages of running thousands of simulations.  So if Villa have a higher projected GD than Chelsea it just means that over the thousands of simulations, the average points total was higher.  GD doesn't come into it at all.  For the NUFC Arsenal game, they're assuming we'll get about 1 point on average (based on their projected probability of us winning, drawing or losing).

 

 

Edited 1 hour ago by McEwan
Clarity

[GideonShandy]

A hefty points reduction for City (or even a modest one) would make things a lot more comfortable.

 

https://sport.optus.com.au/news/premier-league/os90077/manchester-city-charges-verdict-punishments-guilty

[GideonShandy]

28 minutes ago, Stifler said:

Opta have us down as finishing 3rd on 69 points. It has Man City a point behind us, so obviously assumes that we’ll lose to Arsenal, and Man City will also lose a game.

In what can only be seen as an error, they have Villa finishing 5th level on points with Chelsea, but Chelsea’s GD is much higher than Villa’s.

They only have Forest down as drawing their next game, and presumably losing to Chelsea.

 

 

If you round the predicted points to the nearest whole number, Villa would be on 67 and Chelsea on 66.

But how you square that with Chelsea having a 53% chance of CL and Villa only 42, I can't imagine.

[Kid Icarus]

4 minutes ago, GideonShandy said:

If you round the predicted points to the nearest whole number, Villa would be on 67 and Chelsea on 66.

But how you square that with Chelsea having a 53% chance of CL and Villa only 42, I can't imagine.

Maybe you just don't do rounding and goal difference is probably factored in? Hate these things overall tbh.

[Ellis H]

1 hour ago, Colos Short and Curlies said:

I'm not convinced that City will beat both Bournemouth and Fulham and can see Southampton getting something against Arsenal last day the way Arsenal have been playing recently.

 

So even a draw on Sunday and I think 2nd is a real possibility

If Villa and Chelsea win on Friday, Man City will be 6th heading into their game so the pressure will really be on.

[Superior Acuña]

1 hour ago, Colos Short and Curlies said:

I'm not convinced that City will beat both Bournemouth and Fulham and can see Southampton getting something against Arsenal last day the way Arsenal have been playing recently.

 

So even a draw on Sunday and I think 2nd is a real possibility

 

If it was at Southampton maaaybe after last week, but reckon it's still highly unlikely Arsenal don't beat Southampton at home.

[SteV]

2 minutes ago, Superior Acuña said:

 

If it was at Southampton maaaybe after last week, but reckon it's still highly unlikely Arsenal don't beat Southampton at home.

It is at Southampton. Not that it really makes a great deal of difference IMO. Credit to them for holding Man City, but they did get absolutely battered and would have lost that game 90% of the time.

[Superior Acuña]

17 minutes ago, SteV said:

It is at Southampton. Not that it really makes a great deal of difference IMO. Credit to them for holding Man City, but they did get absolutely battered and would have lost that game 90% of the time.

 

Oh aye of course. Getting their away game with Leicester confused in my head. But aye, still, very unlikely.

[The College Dropout]

Fair chance several teams finish on 69 points. 

[Beren]

1 hour ago, GideonShandy said:

A hefty points reduction for City (or even a modest one) would make things a lot more comfortable.

 

https://sport.optus.com.au/news/premier-league/os90077/manchester-city-charges-verdict-punishments-guilty

 

Completely forgot about this!

 

Coiled like Stone Cold about to deliver a stunner!

[Groundhog63]

My ideal is still Forest and Villa getting 4th and 5th.

Us 3rd, obvs, but if Carling made my ideals we'd be 2nd 😂

[alexf]

There are still too many variables for me. Yes in theory and based on form this season we should get 3 points from Everton or maybe even possibly Arsenal.

But it's the end of the season, most players look like they are running on empty, we have more injuries hitting, and going into one last game needing to win does create a different mentality for the players and crowd. 

 

We could go for it against Arsenal and come up short but what if we picked up a few more injuries to key players or a suspension etc. Still just too much up in the air for me to say with any confidence we are definitely there. 

 

Really hope we turn up at Arsenal and get it done there. The idea of a nervy 0-0 with Everton trying to break them down going into the last few minutes would be horrific.

[Erikse]

8 minutes ago, alexf said:

There are still too many variables for me. Yes in theory and based on form this season we should get 3 points from Everton or maybe even possibly Arsenal.

But it's the end of the season, most players look like they are running on empty, we have more injuries hitting, and going into one last game needing to win does create a different mentality for the players and crowd. 

 

We could go for it against Arsenal and come up short but what if we picked up a few more injuries to key players or a suspension etc. Still just too much up in the air for me to say with any confidence we are definitely there. 

 

Really hope we turn up at Arsenal and get it done there. The idea of a nervy 0-0 with Everton trying to break them down going into the last few minutes would be horrific.

 

I'm still having anxiety about those last 10 min of the Leicester 0-0 game 2 years ago.  We were absolutely smashing them up until that point, and they had nothing. Last 10 min we decided to "be smart" by passing it around the back instead, and lost the ball there couple of times only to concede big chances. Pope had to make a crazy save in the end.

 

 

Edited 40 minutes ago by Erikse

[Optimistic Nut]

Surely Villa will have one result like our loss at Man U late in the season? (Wishful thinking)

[alexf]

9 minutes ago, Erikse said:

 

I'm still having anxiety about those last 10 min of the Leicester 0-0 game 2 years ago.  We were absolutely smashing them up until that point, and they had nothing. Last 10 min we decided to "be smart" by passing it around the back instead, and lost the ball there couple of times only to concede big chances. Pope had to make a crazy save in the end.

 

 

 

Exactly. However I'm trying to tell myself that since then we have grown as a team and won a hell of a lot of "big games" when we needed to, not least the cup final. 

 

So I know we can do it, but would much prefer it not to reach the stress levels of that Leicester game. 

[Optimistic Nut]

4 hours ago, Mazzy said:

 

Our Kryptonite does certainly seem to be any teams between 8th and 12th. 

 

Most of the season our away record was better than our home record, thankfully since Bournemouth & Fulham we've been shit hot at home and we've got the 3rd best home record in the league now. I'm sure before I spat my dummy out and deleted my account I posted we should aim for around 40 points at home and 30 away and we'll get CL and we're not far off that.

[Erikse]

11 minutes ago, alexf said:

Exactly. However I'm trying to tell myself that since then we have grown as a team and won a hell of a lot of "big games" when we needed to, not least the cup final. 

 

So I know we can do it, but would much prefer it not to reach the stress levels of that Leicester game. 

 

I'm a bit conflicted about it aswell, because while what you are saying was true, I did see the thing of losing control when trying to play it safe vs Chelsea. I think we got pretty scared after their dangerous counters in the first half. We somehow tend to get it over the line in the end anyways, but I'm getting heart attacks in the process of it.

 

 

Edited 20 minutes ago by Erikse

[Jackie Broon]

16 minutes ago, Optimistic Nut said:

Surely Villa will have one result like our loss at Man U late in the season? (Wishful thinking)

 

Can't see it happening, they're playing the two worst sides outside of the relegated teams who have absolutely nothing to play for and no interest in the league.

 

 

Edited 20 minutes ago by Jackie Broon