The Europeometer™ (2024/25) - NUFC Qualify for Conference League (at least)

[Kid Icarus]

1 hour ago, Elma said:

From Oddschecker.

 

I still can't understand how Chelsea are shorter than Villa for top five. For that to happen then Chelsea surely have to win both of their games (without a striker), and in my opinion their games are much harder than Villa's.

Both have relatively winnable games but Chelsea have a miles better goal difference.

 

 

Edited 10 hours ago by Kid Icarus

[David Edgar]

Opta also have Chelsea as more likely to qualify. 

[The College Dropout]

The GD advantage is why Chelsea are favourites

[Displayname]

3 hours ago, AyeDubbleYoo said:

I’m not sure Villa and Chelsea both winning both games is ‘very likely’. It could happen of course, but also probably won’t.  

Yeah its so silly, chances for that to happen according to the bookies atleast are going to be like 10-20%.

 

Just placed a bet on Chelsea+Villa this friday where i will almost double my money if they both win. And those two games are by far easier than the two after.

[Ginola14]

finishing second with a trophy to celebrate this season would be a monumental achievement 

 

the only slight downside to that is people's expectations - it's unlikely we repeat that next season and then you get people questioning Howe's future at the club and all the usual shite 

 

I'm not expecting a title challenge next season and just worry Howe might become a victim of his own success 

 

balancing European football with domestic will be difficult 

 

 

Edited 8 hours ago by Ginola14

[AyeDubbleYoo]

2 minutes ago, Displayname said:

Yeah its so silly, chances for that to happen according to the bookies atleast are going to be like 10-20%.

 

Just placed a bet on Chelsea+Villa this friday where i will almost double my money if they both win. And those two games are by far easier than the two after.

I guess with so many teams for so many positions it’s hard for us to clearly understand our chances. But we do tend to assume every other team is going to collect loads of points. 

[macphisto]

33 minutes ago, Ginola14 said:

finishing second with a trophy to celebrate this season would be a monumental achievement 

 

the only slight downside to that is people's expectations - it's unlikely we repeat that next season and then you get people questioning Howe's future at the club and all the usual shite 

 

I'm not expecting a title challenge next season and just worry Howe might become a victim of his own success 

 

balancing European football with domestic will be difficult 

If we get Champions League next season then it will be interesting to see how we approach the cup competitions. Winning the cup this season was incredible but to challenge long-term I'd sacrifice the cups early on to again qualify for the Champions League. Two consecutive seasons in the Champions League would transform the club. 

[SteV]

6 minutes ago, macphisto said:

If we get Champions League next season then it will be interesting to see how we approach the cup competitions. Winning the cup this season was incredible but to challenge long-term I'd sacrifice the cups early on to again qualify for the Champions League. Two consecutive seasons in the Champions League would transform the club. 

Probably depends on the draws tbh. Get draws like we did last season and we’re going to struggle. Get some relatively kind home draws, at least in the early rounds, and can probably still have serious go in the latter stages.

[80]

11 minutes ago, macphisto said:

If we get Champions League next season then it will be interesting to see how we approach the cup competitions. Winning the cup this season was incredible but to challenge long-term I'd sacrifice the cups early on to again qualify for the Champions League. Two consecutive seasons in the Champions League would transform the club. 

Agreed. I don't think Eddie will ever let himself really throw away a game/competition, but I hope we have a squad next season that lets us properly put everything into qualifying for CL (and more...) again. It would be my only true target, although scoring another league cup on the way would also be massive for the club.

[Benwell Lad]

1 hour ago, macphisto said:

If we get Champions League next season then it will be interesting to see how we approach the cup competitions. Winning the cup this season was incredible but to challenge long-term I'd sacrifice the cups early on to again qualify for the Champions League. Two consecutive seasons in the Champions League would transform the club. 

 

Although the FA cup is more prestigious than the Carabao I really think that the top teams now put out stronger teams in the Carabao latter stages.

The timing of the semis and final suits their agenda better than the FA cup when they could well be involved in the latter stages of European competition and the concluding part of the PL season as well.

Certainly Brentford, Chelsea, Arsenal, Liverpool and ourselves put everything into the Carabao games.

 

 

Edited 6 hours ago by Benwell Lad

[TRon]

1 hour ago, macphisto said:

If we get Champions League next season then it will be interesting to see how we approach the cup competitions. Winning the cup this season was incredible but to challenge long-term I'd sacrifice the cups early on to again qualify for the Champions League. Two consecutive seasons in the Champions League would transform the club. 

 

Domestic cup competitions will rightly be lower priority than CL or PL fixtures. Winning a cup was vital this season, now it's done we are not so desperate any more, and we can use these competitions to rotate and get some vital game time for squad players. This alone makes them very important in their own right, especially if we have upgraded our squad.

[TBG]

How uncommon is it for a team not to win the cup they won the prior season?

[timeEd32]

1 hour ago, Benwell Lad said:

 

Although the FA cup is more prestigious than the Carabao I really think that the top teams now put out stronger teams in the Carabao latter stages.

The timing of the semis and final suits their agenda better than the FA cup when they could well be involved in the latter stages of European competition and the concluding part of the PL season as well.

Certainly Brentford, Chelsea, Arsenal, Liverpool and ourselves put everything into the Carabao games.

 

 

 

 

The timing of the earlier stages of the FA Cup are far better for a club in Europe though, particularly one like us who may still have squad depth concerns. As we saw in 2023, playing in the CL and advancing to the QF of the League Cup is a brutal schedule with the international breaks bringing the only respite. 

[SteV]

And remember we’re in the cool gang that can’t get a hard draw in the third round of the Carabao now (assuming that’s still a thing next season?).

[The College Dropout]

13 minutes ago, timeEd32 said:

 

The timing of the earlier stages of the FA Cup are far better for a club in Europe though, particularly one like us who may still have squad depth concerns. As we saw in 2023, playing in the CL and advancing to the QF of the League Cup is a brutal schedule with the international breaks bringing the only respite. 

Nah FA Cup 3rd round and 4th round are banana skins due to requiring significant rotation.

 

FA Cup suits teams with deep squads which is why City win it so often.

[Stifler]

6 minutes ago, SteV said:

And remember we’re in the cool gang that can’t get a hard draw in the third round of the Carabao now (assuming that’s still a thing next season?).

Aye, get a bye to the 3rd round, and even then you can’t get a fellow European teams.

[Kilcline]

4 minutes ago, SteV said:

And remember we’re in the cool gang that can’t get a hard draw in the third round of the Carabao now (assuming that’s still a thing next season?).

I believe it is but the rule is that teams in the CL can't meet teams in the EL due to UEFA dates, so we can still play one of the other 5 CL teams assuming we qualify, it just so happened that this year all the European teams ended up with easy ties anyway and a CL team didn't draw Man U or Spurs (insert joke of choice about easy games against those two here)

 

Bye to the third round aswell though so at least that's something!

[Turnbull2000]

2 minutes ago, Kilcline said:

I believe it is but the rule is that teams in the CL can't meet teams in the EL due to UEFA dates, so we can still play one of the other 5 CL teams assuming we qualify, it just so happened that this year all the European teams ended up with easy ties anyway and a CL team didn't draw Man U or Spurs (insert joke of choice about easy games against those two here)

 

Bye to the third round aswell though so at least that's something!

 

No. The CL regulars successfully lobbied to avoid each other completely. So no Liverpool/Arse/Chelsea/Villa possible in the 3rd round draw.

[MagPar]

4 hours ago, Ginola14 said:

finishing second with a trophy to celebrate this season would be a monumental achievement 

 

the only slight downside to that is people's expectations - it's unlikely we repeat that next season and then you get people questioning Howe's future at the club and all the usual shite 

 

I'm not expecting a title challenge next season and just worry Howe might become a victim of his own success 

 

balancing European football with domestic will be difficult 

 

 

 

Villa seem to have managed it pretty well and Howe will have learned from a couple of seasons ago. A bigger squad (a better bunch of bench players) is a must however.

[Kilcline]

1 minute ago, Turnbull2000 said:

 

No. The CL regulars successfully lobbied to avoid each other completely. So no Liverpool/Arse/Chelsea/Villa possible in the 3rd round draw.

Did they? Where was that reported?

 

Here is the wording from https://www.efl.com/news/2024/august/28/carabao-cup-round-three-draw-confirmed/

 

Draw Conditions were implemented for the Carabao Cup Round Three draw due to the scheduling of European competition fixtures over two exclusive midweeks in September.

 

Carabao Cup Round Three fixtures will take place W/C 16 & 23 September, with fixtures in the Champions League (W/C 16 September) and Europa League (W/C 23 September) also scheduled during this period. The additional dates required in the calendar for European competitions are as a result of an increased number of games for the 2024/25 season.

 

To ensure there is no clash of fixture dates, conditions were implemented during the Round Three draw to ensure a Club participating in the Champions League does not draw a Club participating in the Europa League, to enable the Round Three fixtures to take place in the alternate week.

[Superior Acuña]

2 minutes ago, Kilcline said:

Did they? Where was that reported?

 

Here is the wording from https://www.efl.com/news/2024/august/28/carabao-cup-round-three-draw-confirmed/

 

Draw Conditions were implemented for the Carabao Cup Round Three draw due to the scheduling of European competition fixtures over two exclusive midweeks in September.

 

Carabao Cup Round Three fixtures will take place W/C 16 & 23 September, with fixtures in the Champions League (W/C 16 September) and Europa League (W/C 23 September) also scheduled during this period. The additional dates required in the calendar for European competitions are as a result of an increased number of games for the 2024/25 season.

 

To ensure there is no clash of fixture dates, conditions were implemented during the Round Three draw to ensure a Club participating in the Champions League does not draw a Club participating in the Europa League, to enable the Round Three fixtures to take place in the alternate week.

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/articles/cd9de5kq7vlo

 

Quote

Carabao Cup holders Liverpool will begin the defence of their crown at home to West Ham in the third round as a seeding system was introduced in the competition for the first time.

The six English sides taking part in the Champions League and Europa League were all seeded in the draw, meaning they would not have to face each other at this stage.

 

[MagPar]

2 hours ago, TBG said:

How uncommon is it for a team not to win the cup they won the prior season?

Away and Google it ya lazy git

[Kilcline]

1 minute ago, Superior Acuña said:

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/articles/cd9de5kq7vlo

 

 

Cheers.

 

Obviously a total disgrace this season but more than happy it benefits us next!

[Kilcline]

Jeez the first four teams drawn were guaranteed a home game aswell, let's have some of that too!

[54]

I don't really care if it benefits us or not, I hope they change that League Cup draw next season, its ridiculous that the teams in Europe get such a benefit.